1. Robert

    You are getting too bearish now, look on miners they are alrdy rallying and they have put in there DCL. Gdx looks like it has broken the downtrend line today so gold should follow now. Prbly bounce till next week before resumption of bear trend

    1. Gary Post author

      Maybe. But I’ve seen the banksters fleece over anxious gold bugs more than once with these false bottoms.

      1. bill

        And thats a fact Gary…I know Ive been there many times. Now I’m patient. No rush at all.

        1. Robert

          Miners tend to lead at times if gold is still bearish why have miners stopped dropping? It doesn’t matter at this point if gold drops to 1200 the gdx is saying that a rally is due. When u start seeing miners getting weak again and have a strong red day that’s prbly when the selloff resume s

  2. Goild

    Good morning,

    Gold bottoms take some consolidation. While this appears a reversal, it can also be a trap, a small bounce.
    Today by itself can be a trap. Let us keep volume in sight.

  3. Pedestrian

    No big action until Monday at the earliest. We need a weekend catalyst as usual. This is just basing and consolidation.

  4. Alexandru Popovici

    False reversal in gold ?
    I think unlikely, it needs to bounce and it is a feature of gold to post such bottoms: reversal followed by creeping dojis or small candles at best before it blasts – maybe it will not post a higher high (YCH was in April maybe) but it will give a blast.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      Crude oil and CRB Index should blast later today towards 48 and 180 respectively on DOE’s inventories report – the end of this week will be a cheer for crude oil and CRB before resuming secondary trend to sub-40.

      1. bluelagoon

        Alex – what are you basing your oil predictions on? So far you’ve been right so kudos to you.

  5. Goild

    Despite that in the morning I thought of a late run up, and that actually I bought 2K JNUG shares at $14.38, at the third bottom, to sell for a small scalping profit, I missed the run. The 10 day, 10 minute, chart was showing a channel and consolidation so there was a good chance for the run up.
    An opportunity lost… In hindsight…
    Well, where is the next opportunity?
    Perhaps oil? I am in with 5K USL shares.

  6. tulip

    The nuke waste in Hanford Wa. is a very big deal and probably cannot be covered up like the rest of the nuke accidents in this country.
    The contamination around there is probably akin to Chernobyl.

  7. Gary Post author

    If this does turn out to be the DCL then watch the 5 day RSI. During the declining phase of an intermediate cycle price tends to reverse quickly once it reaches overbought. Then a new leg down begins.

    This is ones chance to exit long positions if you got caught at the top.

  8. Pedestrian

    If you watch the hourly platinum chart you can see it will probably take Wednesday, Thursday and Friday to set-up the base for a bounce. For some reason its easier to read than gold and silver at turns so the platinum chart comes in very handy. Keep your eyes on it. When plat moves up gold won’t be far behind.

  9. dboz

    Time for a curve ball. The PM market is patterned. Good chart Gary, maybe this is the time it does not do this to fake the sideline sitters out. This is where it gets tough for sideline sitters. Do you sit and think a deeper pullback is coming? Or does it take off and just keep rising? For us OLD TURKEY holders, this is a nice surprise today. No need to try to time it. The only decision will be if we should sell after a bounce and possible deeper fall.

    Plenty of time to get long for sure but it is always hard to pull the trigger at the bottom as everyone always expects lower. Time will tell where we go.

  10. Pedestrian

    Copper is also smack-dab on the bottom of its channel and ready to move up with other commodities.

    That should be good news for TECK fans. But here’s a little warning. If you trace out the channels on TECK using the bottoms as your giude what you will see is that the top is a Head-and-Shoulders pattern rather than a double top as suggested by the FINVIZ chart.

    That can only mean that any potential bounce coming in copper will not be significant if the H&S is to remain valid. So buy it with caution in mind and consideration that all the metals may have no more than a feeble relief rally in store.

    1. Gary Post author

      It does look like a DCL in miners. But I doubt we have a final ICL yet. Sentiment isn’t bearish enough.

      I’m going to say stocks drop down into a DCL and metals rally over the next 5-8 days. Then the longer term trends resume with the final ICL coming in mid to late June.

      1. Robert

        Would gold go much higher as well for the next few days or just miners? It seems only the miners are going up

  11. Alexandru Popovici

    BlueLagoon, there is a feel of Lady Market one gets in time.
    I do not trade exclusively on this feel, though; in order to minimize risk, I trade only:
    – in the main direction of my trading span (i.e. of the YC, as I mentioned 1-2 weeks ago) and
    – further on based on the occurrence of an entry signal.

    PS: oil = 47 already post DOE’s inventories report 😉 I will re-short it at 48.9

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      Stock market is weak, it needs a reset.
      I was waiting for this blast in crude oil not only for the sake of oil-trading but also as an inter-market marker of the state of health of SM –> the SM has totally dismissed the blast in oil !
      Not even a buoyant oil or a Macron-election cannot push it up anymore.
      Refresh button, F5, F5, for SM is needed before it resumes higher.

    2. bluelagoon

      You’re right again Alex on this blast-off in oil. I was going to go long yesterday but wasn’t sure. Now I’ll go long but will watch out for your $49 resistance and see how it looks there. What are your thoughts on gold?

    1. Robert

      Gary its a DCL for miners but the darn gold and silver is not moving up just miners

    2. ras

      Likely, bounce will carve the right shoulder to match the left. Getting out of OS condition is a process. Process takes time, longer than we would like. There will be warning bells when we get there.

  12. nautique99

    Gary, in my humble opinion, sentiment indicators isn’t always stochastic and overbought, oversold levels… When you have a rising gold with a declining GDX like we had from Jan to April, for me, its discouragement at its best.

    Anyway, there are no perfect rules but it seems to me that the frustration was very high for the past months for GDX holders. It think it’s what we needed for the next leg up.

    It’s amazing to see this morning a USD/JPY still rising , with a VIX to record low , still declining …and a negative DOW. What will happen when these two turn around ??

    I wouldn’t be surprise to see the DOW starting a decline to December levels, till mid end summer.

    Good luck to all !

    1. Gary Post author

      I don’t use indicators as a proxy for sentiment. I use actual sentiment data from sentiment trader.com

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