149 thoughts on “CHARTS OF THE DAY – DOLLAR 3 YEAR CYCLE LOW

  1. JesseL

    Golds recent rise has been very weak in comparison to the dollars fall, but miners have had a good rise into last Thursday. Do you think the PM crowd is prematurely bullish and feel that the bottom is in?

    If in fact the dollar completes it’s decline in a a few days, where do you see the miners heading?

  2. Emptyness

    Maybe – maybe not.
    It’s all a question of time. You call it a “3 year cycle low”. But if you look at a longer period of time, we could also be near the 16 year high !
    http://www.macrotrends.net/1329/us-dollar-index-historical-chart
    Or look at EUR/USD:
    http://www.goldseiten.de/artikel/332693–Der-EURO-ist-tot-es-lebe-der-EURO.html
    Maybe in january 2017 we had the 16 year low of the Euro / USD. Maybe we get it in 2018.
    So the probability is high that we are near the long term high of the USD.

        1. Gary Post author

          Don’t forget that we are talking about a multi-year cycle. So it could still rally for a year to a year and a half before topping.

  3. waverider

    Don’t know why currency predictions are still relevant when you have denounced trading them because of their incessant manipulation and lack of cycle theory. Doesn’t help the metals and energy forecast either.

  4. galaxy

    Gary and surf, What you think is the best book or material to learn trading with cycle theory?

    1. Gary Post author

      You can google Walter Bressert, but understand cycles have evolved since his original work. QE, currency interventions and market interventions have caused cycles to elongate to the point that normal cycle duration’s are longer now than they were several years ago.

        1. Gary Post author

          I would agree, The longer cycles still seem to be pretty much the same, although the current intermediate dollar cycle is now on its 54th week.

          It’s mostly the smaller daily cycles that have elongated. So now there tends to be fewer daily cycles embedded within an intermediate cycle.

  5. TraderPete

    Gary Wagner states: “Three River Morning Star And Golden Cross Signal Higher Gold Prices.”

  6. pk

    Gary,

    Great call on oil and gold de-correlating. Kept me away from an oil short to focus on shorting miners and so far it’s playing out like you called it. Looking for a big down day in gold today. Basing this off Friday’s weak miners action and usd/jpy setting up from a big up move.

  7. zkotpen

    Goild,

    Hope you’ve had a nice weekend!

    Different perspectives, yes;
    the math must add up in any case.

    You are impelling me to dig into the smaller fractals or smaller degree cycles, which is fun, though I question the quality of data…

    Just how accurate is a one minute candle?

    I learned the patterns from Prechter’s 1987 video course, which I downloaded on April 17, 2013 ๐Ÿ˜‰ Those notes I wrote last time were from that time. I later viewed a more recent intro course by Jody Samuels. I have never read “The Elliott Wave Principle” in its entirety, but have used it as a reference, especially around 2014-15.

    As for analysis, in 2015, I began to focus on the problem with the Wave Principle: Pattern ambiguity.

    Then a year and a half ago, I got a hunch — an hypothesis. And that thing keeps on developing. That marks my break with classic “Elliott Wave” Analysis.

    I want to resolve the ambiguity — at least with a higher degree of accuracy than the empirical methods used in the classic approach. So I just keep workin’ on it!

  8. zkotpen

    Gary, Surf,

    All of the different intermediary cycles are pretty wonky-funky, hard to pin down, not just the “Intermediate Cycle” between Daily and Yearly.

    The next one up — I call “Multi-year”. It’s not 3 years… though 3 years is close.

    The next one down — I call “Intra-day”. It’s not a “half cycle”… though half cycle is close.

    Hard to pin those intermediary buggers down. They seem irregular.

    Therefore, it makes sense to me to trade only primary cycles & look at intermediary cycles for clues and cues:

    1. The intermediary above the degree you’re trading outlines the trend you want to trade.

    2. The intermediary below the degree you’re trading gives you entries and exits.

    3. Time frame is not a rule, but a guideline ๐Ÿ™‚

    1. Gary Post author

      I find it hard to believe the DCL ended with just one down day. Usually stocks and the currencies will form ICL’s together so I’m being a bit careful here. Stocks could still have one more drop this week during an all out panic in the dollar.

      Reduced my stock positions and may reduce a bit more.

  9. Gary Post author

    This is that period where 90% of people will start to assume the dollar is now going to go down for the foreseeable future … and then get caught on the wrong side of the market.

    It’s at times like this that cycles & sentiment become indispensable tools. They keep me from making the same mistake everyone else makes by riding a trend too long.

    I’m pretty sure I got the bottom in oil as well. I think we’re finally set up to make some good money in the energy portfolio.

    1. Gary Post author

      The big 3 didn’t follow oil to lower lows. That was a clue that the bottom was forming. But the energy stocks aren’t shooting higher either which makes me think the stock market may have one more lower low yet.

      1. ras

        Looks that way. SM carving a potential double top after 1 day decline? 1 day decline could be a warning, a shot across the bow. It is difficult to get excited about oils now. May be a bit later.

  10. Goild

    Good morning,

    Sleep well and ready to make money.
    Good trading to all!

    Beware of falling knifes.

  11. Gary Post author

    I see the gold and oil guy is still trying to call the top in this market. Clueless.

    1. Robert

      Gold and gold stocks are refusing to correct. If it keeps up the odds are that we get another right translated cycle

      1. Dday

        More like gold hasn’t taken advantage…. Surly gold should be around $1300 by now with the dollar continuing to fall. Refusing to correct or just biding time, daily technicals already overbought or approaching overbought, don’t fall for the gold hope trap…

  12. Dday

    https://invst.ly/3zxvf

    gold daily

    Well the stoch/MACD and TSI are catching up with the RSI. Still a few more days(even possibly weeks). I was told that technicals don’t matter and that I should know by now that ICL cycles make technicals irrelevant. Well looks like the technicals are still working for me. But yes gold looks like its topping out and I like the MACD histogram levels for a reversal soon. Whats more with the dollar flash crash, gold really hasn’t stepped up, again in my mind showing weakness.

    1. Gary Post author

      Robert,
      Technicals don’t matter during a major trend reversal.

      Pay attention. The dollar is about to form a major bottom. Once it does that is what will drive gold down into its ICL.

      Look at how weak the sector is. The dollar is making lower lows and gold can’t make a higher high. Silver and miners aren’t even close to making a higher high.

      You need to stay focused on the big picture right now and not get caught up in the day to day wiggles. This is why the technical crowd always gets caught at these turns.

      1. Dday

        You have kind of just agreed with what I just wrote, I am focused on the bigger picture I have currently been adding shorts(gold), and longs SM. Will see shorts when gold is oversold again, wheres the argument?

        1. Robert

          You guys are correct. However day to day wiggles like this do strongly affect leveraged positions. Anybody who buys options or leveraged etfs can lose a heck of a lot of money on these short term gyrations and spikes

          1. Gary Post author

            I’m going to let you in on a secret. Leveraged positions, especially options, are like going all in on a poker hand. You either trust your play, or you don’t. Any little wiggle against you will cause a big drawdown. So you can’t use a stop like you would with a normal position. A stop will just guarantee that you lose money as you will be stopping out over and over every time the market wiggles against you.

            Options are all or nothing trades. Leveraged ETF”s are either for day trading or they are also all or nothing trades if you are holding them overnight.

          2. Dday

            I have a target price of 60 for DUST, I think we are topping so any bought under 30 is a good buy in my opinion. I have stated that GDX could go to 24-24.3, in which case we will see DUST around 24. My point is there is nothing wrong with using technicals to pinpoint turns more accurately.

  13. Robert

    I guess then if buying leveraged ETF or options you have to just suck up drawdowns and wait for it to play out. Not many people can stomach seeing there account drop 20-50% on a small wiggle

    1. Christian

      Robert — I’ve been doing this long enough to tell you that if you know how to time your trade then the likelihood of a 20-50% drop is next to nil. You need to spend more time studying market psychology so that you’re not second guessing all the time ๐Ÿ™‚

      Best advice you’ll ever get, if you’re able to put it in practice that is.

  14. Goild

    In the last few days, except for one, gold is in a straight line up.
    Big pockets are in a schedule.
    The question is when it is going to end.

    1 1/2 hour of work and got lunch money.

    Good trading to all.

  15. jacob2

    Energy,chalk it up to confirmation bias but with recent fundamental events think the fix is in between russia, u.s. And saudis for higher oil prices the rest of the year.

  16. JJHarmen

    Stock market up, crude oil up, natural gas up and oil stocks are getting slapped down. Makes perfect sense.

  17. Bigdaddy

    I am just watching smart mouth. FYI, I have been burned by how quickly the market reversed course after a single day sell off.

    1. Christian

      And how many times have we told you not to go ‘short’ big boy?! Instead of telling people to piss off, you should instead listen and learn.. it’ll save you a boat load of money and you can thank me (and others that are trying to help) later!

  18. Goild

    JJ,

    OK here is the lunch money since may 5th
    5 +$1369
    8 +$1099
    9 +$1387
    10 +$1468
    11 +$1232
    12 +$1196
    15 +$1600
    16 +$1148
    17 +$1621
    18 +$4164
    19 +$1053
    Today so far +$903

    Though I consider lunch money about $600. So the performance is nice.
    I am focusing to not stupidly give money on falling knifes, but to master them.
    I am building a good cushion to venture again into a swing trades.

    As you can see I am in ant, tortoise, mode.

  19. zkotpen

    I believe the intraday cycle has one more wiggle to the downside in gold & GDX, to complete the intraday cycle low — gold to test 5 day SMA; GDX a bit lower.

    Then on to the daily cycle high, after which I believe the intermediate decline will resume with the move into the next daily cycle low. Just not convinced the daily cycle has topped in gold & GDX…

    The inverse looks likely in USDJPY: Bounce to the 5 day SMA to 20 day SMA area, before turning back down to the daily cycle low.

  20. Goild

    Zkot,

    Thanks for further commenting on the cycle analysis.

    I do consider in trading time intervals and immediate past history as the market tends to repeat itself.
    I was not aware of Gary’s cycle/sentiment approach.
    So I will try to learn it.

  21. bluelagoon

    I agree zkotpen – I also think there’s more to go on the daily cycle in gold…..and GDX likely to $24.40’s before it’s done. Perhaps the turning point will be this Wed’s big news day.

  22. Bigdaddy

    From now on, I am not going to do anything that contradicts Gary’d guidance. Maybe that will work better for me. I am tired of losing. Gary, you were saying a few weeks ago that you were expecting a deeper correction in May. Is that still your expectation ? is it okay to buy DUST or JDST yet as per for your prediction of an another big fall in the miners?

  23. Robert

    If miners fail to make higher high this week then I’ll still believe that gold has another cycle however if new highs then Gary’s will be wrong

  24. zkotpen

    Goild,

    Of course, the only caveat with Gary’s approach to cycles — for you — is that he focuses on daily cycles and higher. Your trades are at degrees well below that.

    I get down to the wiggles & just below that myself. Very happy with the way the chart looks down to those degrees.

    And as I’ve pointed out, you’ve got me looking at both the primary wave and the intermediary wave below that. Still undecided about my approach to these smaller degree waves — data reliability & increasing complexity are my concerns. I’m sure intuition will serve up a plan whenever that becomes appropriate…

    … bottom line is, you’ve got to work the time frame that makes the most sense for you… the different approaches you talk about… quantitatively, they will boil down to time frame that one feels comfortable with.

  25. WYSIWYGN

    looks like the PM’s are resuming their uptrend without even looking back to an ICL

  26. dboz

    Several miners are testing their down trend lines again. I heeded the warning and bailed out last week. Time will tell if it was a good move or a disaster. The action looks terrible with no volume on a big move in spot. Last several times that happened, so did a miner collapse. Since I got out, I suppose this will be the time for them to buck the trend and launch.

  27. desertsun999

    After looking at the last two 3yr cycle lows on the dollar I have a question for the board;

    We had 3yr cycle low in May of 2014 and May of 2011. In both of the previous cycle lows the large spec’s were net short on the COT’s. The last dollar COT report the large spec’s were net long 34,000 contracts.
    Somebody please explain to me why this time is going to be different.

  28. Bigdaddy

    Canadians get eleven three day weekends per year. Ten are federal holidays and one is provincial. Many employees get a four day weekend from their employers as a bonus. American companies hate Canadian labor laws and want them to be more Americanized,

    1. JJHarmen

      Wow! I had no idea that Canadian workers had it so good. I thought the US had the best laws for the worker.

  29. HomerJ

    Anyone else as puzzled as I am that Gary has closed out the Equity longs?. A one dollar profit and it’s all cashed in?

          1. HomerJ

            From your portfolio Gary, not mentioning the ETF even though everyone knows.
            Just curious, if it’s because you’re going on your trip, then that’s fine.

  30. Gary Post author

    Folks, has the dollar bottomed yet?

    If not then why in the world are you assuming gold is only going higher?

    What do you think gold is going to do when the dollar takes off to the upside?

    It’s already telegraphing what’s coming. It can’t make higher highs even though the dollar is making lower lows.

    1. nautique99

      Euro was up but no big move just yet on the JPY…but its coming. Also, yields were up today. We need the 3 amigos to be aligned in order to have a big move. But all in all , it was a good day for gold and miners…SM was up , so everyone should be happy !

    1. Bigdaddy

      Don must be taking a break and enjoying the Canadian holiday. I believe their markets were closed today. As for pedestrian, he always goes quiet after things don’t go the way he predicts. He was going on about gold crashing just before it turned around. i don’t pay much attention to him.

      1. Pedestrian

        Totally wrong, Big Dodo.

        As a matter of fact I have left hardly any comments in a month and that included when gold was going up AND down so don’t be a retard. If you have forgotten (and you did) I already told you I was not going to bother with gold again until fall since this is the season of going nowhere and its not worth my time spinning wheels with it every day. Gold is pretty much directionless and unpredictable lately. I would like to see it retest 1200 at least but that remains to be seen. In any case, I have no skin in the game right now and plan to keep it that way until metals start to make a real move a few months from now.

  31. JJHarmen

    I have no positions except for a Canadian penny stock that is doing nothing and I have no more time for this today. Have a nice day folks.

  32. ras

    xiv struggling at 77 throughout the day. What next? Is that it? or will it test the highs around 82?
    vix under 11.

  33. Bigdaddy

    ras, do you play xiv? I just pulled up a chart and it has gone up a lot! Maybe it would be a good short?

  34. Christian

    I picked up more shares of DUST today, which means that I am now fully invested ๐Ÿ™‚ Here’s the latest.. The technicals are lining up nicely with the current cycle count and notice how the Miners have struggled despite dollar weakness and silver strength.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/SdeFmLAa/

    1. Gary Post author

      We are getting a repeat of the April top. I tired and tried to warn people that the miners were not following gold to new highs and that was a red flag. Most ignored me and made up excuses for why it didn’t matter. We know how that ended.

      Now we have the same thing happening. The dollar is making lower lows yet gold, miners and especially silver are nowhere near making higher highs. Warning bells are ringing. Pay attention.

      1. jmusmr

        What ticker could we use to make a play on this? DUST? JDST? I’d rather not use those but I’m not really sure what other ticks there are out there to make this play..

    1. Pedestrian

      It’s spelled Vaction. No idea what it means but that’s what he posted. LOL!

  35. Pedestrian

    I really don’t see the excitement in crude oil. Anyone betting long is going to have his account cleaned soon enough because the WTI charts are just about as ugly as they come. I mean look at the Canadian dollar for a hint. Does that look like its about to take off and soar or fall flat on its face? At best we see a bump during the summer driving season but its all down hill after that.

  36. jake

    “At 57,337 contracts, the NET short position of the Commercials has been cut almost exactly in half over the past five weeks from an alltime high total of 114,4141 contracts on April 11.”

  37. dboz

    I came really close to buying JDST in the low 69 range today. Thought we may get another couple days of gold rising. JDST is setting up better than DUST since GDXJ is weaker due to rebalancing. Lots of miner seller could be occurring soon. Maybe tomorrow I will take a nibble.

  38. zkotpen

    Pedestrian

    “I really donโ€™t see the excitement in crude oil.”

    G’day mate!

    About a week ago, I described the WTO chart as looking like an old lady tip-toeing in between mud puddles.

    Thought maybe you’d get a kick out of that!

  39. Goild

    Good morning,

    Premarket volume in gold/jnug is low, candles are no too short.
    Shall we have a dive to jnug at $18.40 or shall we go to $20.40?

  40. Goild

    I take it GLD will kiss again $120.20 to then lean to the averages.
    GLD volume has been decreasing in the last few days.

  41. Bigdaddy

    We must be getting close to the roll over point for gold that Gary has been talking about. I am primed and ready to short GDX.

    1. Don

      BD: before you get all excited about the miners falling as per Gary’s expectations ( Dec lows) , please take note of the fact that as the PMs have been rising , the commercial traders have been reducing their short exposure in gold, silver and platinum. That’s not an ideal situation for a big pullback. That said, the miners could fall anyway as has happened in the past.

      1. Bigdaddy

        If Gary isn’t concerned about the commercials, then I am not either. I see the miners are down this morning. Something is up with that. I just shorted GDX at 23.10.

      2. Gary Post author

        it’s normal for the commercials to cover short positions as an ICL progresses. I would like to see the Blees rating go above 80 or 90, and the lower triangle trend line get tested. Its at 59 as of last week.

  42. Don

    Google is being tasked today with keeping the market up. Amazon and Google both made all time highs this morning. The semis ( SOXX) are backing off strongly after failing to make a new high.

    I have been reading several articles with the same theme, that yes, the market appears over valued but it doesn’t matter it’s going up for various reasons: share shortage due to buy backs, central bank buying and money printing, investors having no alternatives for yield, etc. I would definitely not want to be long this market.

    1. Gary Post author

      I predict you won’t want to be long the whole way to 10,000. ๐Ÿ™‚

      That being said I can see the market being stuck in a range the rest of the summer.

      1. ras

        May be later. Right now SM is acting tired. All the huffing and puffing over the last 3 days could not push major indexes to new high. SM is on daily macd sell signal.

      2. Don

        Gary, thanks for the tip. I will copy and retain your comment for future consideration.

  43. Don

    Oil stocks are not getting excited about crude’s nice move up from it’s bottom of just under $44 . Canadian oil ETFs are not doing well at all.

  44. JJHarmen

    Trump wants to dump half of the oil reserve onto the market . That can’t be helping the oils. He also wants to cut food stamps so we can look forward to the nation’s worthless eaters rioting and stealing even more than they do now.
    The Democrats always made sure the bums were well compensated for contributing absolutely nothing to society.

    1. Don

      It’s the same here in Canada. We don’t have food stamps but life is good for those on social assistance. They live in nice neighborhoods, most have cars to drive and they have lots of kids because they get more money. For some reason, they all seem to smoke. It’s sickening actually but at least we don’t have the rioting. O well, enough on that hopeless situation.

      I would be wary of the oils even though Gary is gung ho on them now. If the dollar rises as he expects, I don’t see how crude and oil stocks could benefit.

      1. JJHarmen

        Special because I can see how an ever growing population of parasites are consuming and destroying the very host that feeds them? Our once great country has become a crime riddled mess thanks to the Democrats showering the lazy with freebies for the sole purpose of getting their votes. Violent crime is out of control in cities run by Democrats. That is a fact. I left Baltimore for that exact reason.

        1. Pedestrian

          Just because you are a little higher on the Totem pole does not mean you are not part of the same structure. When it rots and falls over everyone is affected equally. So sorry, but you are not special just because you feed in a more clever manner.

  45. ziasDad

    Anyone here trade the dollar? If Gary’s correct and a 3 year cycle low is near, seems like the easy trade would be to go long the dollar instead of shorting instruments that SHOULD head south once the dollar bottoms or going long instruments that SHOULD rally along with the dollar.

    For those who don’t trade futures, there’s UUP.

  46. primetime

    Nasdaq 10000 went from piece of cake to being stuck in a range for the rest of the year in a one week time period. HUH?

    Quite a change, and anyway, I am not buying the Nasdaq below 10000 because oil is the new BULL with millions to be made. I will ride the oil train until Nasdaq 10000, then I will jump on the Nasdaq and ride it up to the 20000 which is very possible as has been stated here 2004 times.

    The only problem, I must figure out how to live to the age of 327.

  47. Jelly Belly

    If the dollar is putting in a low here, then wouldn’t oil be vulnerable when the dollar goes up?

  48. BailOut-2-BailIn

    Prediction…Current gold cycle tops above $1,300 in the first full week of June…then down with the summer doldrums for a while, then back to newer highs in the fall.

        1. BailOut-2-BailIn

          There’s pretty good resistance at 1265…it we get through it, then I think we go above 1300.

          1. Pedestrian

            We’ll see 1200 before we get to thirteen.

            I am not just saying that to be argumentative either. If you are not already aware, gold is seasonal. The differences to your portfolio performance can be statistically significant depending on WHEN you are buying during the calendar year, and when you are exiting or just sitting idle waiting.

            I have mentioned a few times in the past month that I am 100% out of this market right now. And there are good reasons for that so when I read your post I thought now might be a good time to explain why in a little more detail with a helpful chart appended.

            If you are really interested in this phenomenon you can Google on “gold seasonality charts” since they offer a great way to refocus on this trade and help with understanding what is taking place at the moment.

            Here is the sample link of charts I came up with.
            https://www.google.com/search?q=gold+seasonality&client=firefox-b-ab&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7wfOp9IbUAhXrK8AKHUlyCRsQsAQIKw&biw=1093&bih=481&dpr=1.25#imgrc=sTA28f01vGvHnM:

            But first let me just add that seasonality is based on averages. So it is by no means a guarantee as to what will happen tomorrow or next week but rather the insight offers you reasonable probabilities to help guide your trading so that you buy and sell with the ebb and flow of the monthly trends.

            Anyway, I don’t personally bother trading these months since it can be unpredictable, boring and occasionally even nerve wracking if prices start to go South too fast. And I do expect prices to fall right through to the end of July this year. Just as they have been doing for many decades already (on average).

            I was trying to find a 2016 gold seasonality chart to link for you but came up with this other gem instead. Its from 2012 but still makes the same valid point. What I liked about this one is how the author reworked the data to “detrend” the outcome (see 2nd and 3rd charts in the link).

            Ain’t she a beauty?
            http://www.safehaven.com/article/38359/proper-seasonal-gold-chart

            And THAT is why I don’t bother with gold at this time of year. All you really want to do right now is raise cash, make a list of gold/silver stocks you like and get ready to pull the trigger come September.

            What you DON’T want to do is get stuck now with underwater long positions before the strong season arrives so that you end up missing the action just trying to get even again.

            So if you are not good at working the short side of the market or if you have the faulty belief gold has a big climb in the very near future, then you should probably just stay away and keep cool while you wait.

            Gold seasonality is real thing.

            It is one of the most dependable of the fundamental aspects we need to keep apprised of when investing in this market. If this is a new idea to you then I highly recommend you print out one of the seasonality charts and pin it to your wall so next year it becomes part of your trading strategy.

          2. Pedestrian

            Seasonality strongly suggests GDX will break DOWN from its pennant formation. So be very careful buying the next bounce off support. It might well turn out to be quicksand as it gives way unexpectedly. Check the pattern on the chart linked below. The blue support line is not going to hold……. I am going to be looking for a decent buying opportunity below 19 dollars. Kind of funny but I told Robert that months ago and he might recall that I wrote “Wake me up when GDX hits 19”. Well, we are darn close to that already. It will be a disappointment if we don’t get there in June.

            http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=gdx&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

  49. bluelagoon

    Not sure if anyone is with me but my analysis is showing that DUST might get to $31/32 but highly unlikely for it to go beyond that for a while. So my plan is to buy NUGT once I see DUST has exhausted this short rally.

    Anyone have any thoughts on NG? I know Alex was looking for it to head to $2.60’s but it looks like it got bullish first.

  50. Robert

    Gary it looks like u r going to be right but the terrorist attack and overbought Spy may keep ppl looking to buy gold. It should go down but I don’t think u will get a powerful downline in miners. Maybe something resembling the small drop in May last year

    1. Gary Post author

      The metals have about 20-25 days to fall. If you think that’s going to be mild I have some ocean front property I want to sell you in Vegas. ๐Ÿ™‚

  51. KHT

    Mr Pedestrian…..Thank you for a very well done and much needed analysis. I have taken something of a vacation from trading the last week or two after stopping out from a very ill advised emotional silver short position. It happens but I know better. i had a pretty good winning streak going and well, got cocky, took my eye off the ball and got my wings clipped. A much needed lesson in humility. I will pay attention. There are no Mulligans when trading.

    Anyway, I am loaded with dry powder and what you posted is just what I needed to step back on the field.

    Patience!!

  52. Gary Post author

    It looks like the dollar may have bottomed. However we didn’t get the big whoosh down I’m looking for to mark the 3 YCL. We may need another short intermediate cycle before the 3 YCL is complete.

    So a nice bounce for a month or two, followed by another lower low in the fall.

  53. zkotpen

    Pedestrian,

    “Ainโ€™t she a beauty?”

    Yes, the second chart — great article on seasonality. When I looked at your first chart, I thought of the immediate caveat, that years are not a random sample. Coin flips are a random sample, because each event is entirely independent of all other events — if you toss 3 heads in a row, there’s still a 50-50 chance that the 4th toss will be a head or a tail. Not so for market movements. So the de-trending effect is great.

    Still, it would be even more interesting to look at the effects of bullish trending years (the 2000s decade), bearish trending years, and sideways years, as appropriate. At that point, I just keep in mind the overall generic chart, and get back to my own charts of present price action over time. I’m mindful of the seasonal trends, but current market action trumps all.

    I disagree with the caveat about using real instead of nominal price of gold. It’s something I never bought into in Economics: “All other things being equal”. All other things are never equal. Sometimes you can use that assumption successfully — but not when you are removing one of the major factors affecting the dependent variable. “We have 2 major factors affecting this market, but we’ll just hold one of them constant”. Theoretically interesting, but how will you apply it per se? Clearly, by trading the actual price of gold in the dollars the market uses to exchange it. And they are never equal over time.

    Buddhists call it “impermanence”:

    No two moments in time are ever the same.

  54. Steffmeister

    144 posts, thats one of the most important Fib-number there is. 12×12 I take it as an omen.

    Trying to get out of K92 after a nice trade from 75c, I’ve lowered my bid for a week now but my order hasn’t been filled. Just woke to see if my order has pulled through, then I noticed the stock is halted … pending news.

    Good or Bad. I am sitting on close to 100k shares, AGM tomorrow or later today. A foolish amount of shares, sometimes I’ve trouble to control my greed and gambling.

  55. Steffmeister

    Talking about seasonality in Gold I posted this chart in another forum. A trendline and some knowledge about seasons and you should be able to make some money in the markets:

    http://farm5.staticflickr.com/4179/33661231054_9ce7098a9c_b.jpg

    Like I’ve said many times before ancient knowledge still works today. Gary wasn’t aware of this last fall, calling for a multi month bullish trend, when we got a termination of trend in gold at winter solstice.

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