The stock market has not been allowed to correct naturally in recent weeks. As a result, bullish sentiment was not cleansed and we have not been able to generate a sustained breakout. What this has done is compress the selling into a very short time frame.
Like our new Facebook page to stay current on all things Smart Money Tracker
DUST | 5 minute chart — buying the breakout!
What about SPX sinking to 2060 by October?
Enjoy the hike!
I concur with your chart… indeed, am counting on the additional upside in miners — should give you a chance to add to your shorts, and lower your avg. price on the position.
Also, we can evaluate the upside move in GDX & get a clear idea whether it’s likely to make a higher high, or a lower high. The answer to that question will significantly swing the probability of future price action one way or the other… if it looks like more breakout, then wait; if it looks like exhaustion, then short.
these are my general thoughts on how thing might play out in GDX…
Thx Z — We could get that opportunity if GDX is able to close the day above the 50 DMA
Gold and silver moving in opposite directions. Gold Silver Ratio going to take off again. Just pointing it out as a similar move happened last time before both took off to all time highs. We should know in the next few weeks which way we are heading as time and price are coming to a head with a lot of support and resistance zones.
As silver is fading, it tells me that gold will have to pull back or silver will have to explode, place your bets accordingly.
Correction would be healthy for the market, sounds probable, might even get a stop run below support if it has any momentum.
Recent stock market longs are losing all their profits, meanwhile gold is back above it’s 200 day MA. Should get interesting, as the dollar looks extended to the downside as well. I remain lightly long miners, waiting for opportunity to load the boat that might not come for several months.
Looking at the SPX, it is already below levels first touched in late February.
While GDX is above it’s late February levels. Won’t mean much to me until it is also above its 200 day MA like gold.
This will be the last good buying opportunity for stocks. Hopefully the PPT will let the correction proceed naturally and drop below the March low. We need at least one failed daily cycle.
Then get on board for the ride to 10,000 (or 20,000).
I would also point out that the S&P has been trading sideways for 2 months so it isn’t hard to retest the February levels. Take a look at the Nasdaq and see if you can make that same statement.
I will let you take the stock trade, I just can’t get conviction enough in that area that I would be able to hold big positions with a strong hand. It will be interesting to see how long you guys will be able to hold, being your outlook is so aggressive and seems like it would be an easy, one way rocket ride that should be held for a year or so. It certainly could happen, we have seen bubbles trade like that in many areas since the internet stocks in the late 90’s.
For me, its too difficult to load up in stocks after negative interest rates for years. I guess the question is where are we in the bubble phase? To that I tend to think we have seen the bubble, are in it, and its a weak bubble compared to others which might mean the damage could be far worse than in past declines. For sure the public isnt overly involved so the bulls have that in their favor, then again everybody I know who has investments, pensions, retirement accounts, etc is fully invested and talking about the gains. We just dont hear the speculative gamblers coming out if the woodwork as yet, at least I don’t see it.
I hope you cam hold ’em for the ride you see coming! No point in getting positioned for a long, sharp run higher only to hop off a few weeks later with ok gains, gotta stay long and strong, ride that bull! lol
Enjoy your vacation, G. I am still on a sort of vacation myself while waiting for my setups, so will check back every now and then. For now, I am not making any changes and am more neutral than anything, keeping an eye on the SPX since it seems to be getting frisky.
Im pretty much in the same boat Ralph.
Never directly purchased or owned any stocks outside of PM’s or Energy in my life.
Never owned an ETF either.
Have a good trip Gary….my wife and I are heading to Spain/ Portugal for three weeks in mid June.
Everyone deserves a nice vacation
I feel strongly that stocks will either move up or down. Using my proprietary trading platform, the reflow dudenator- which measures and analyzes 130 different metrics in a split second- I am able to say with 100% accuracy that the market will either be up or down.
I can also accurately predict DCLs, DCHs, MCLs, MCHs, YCLs, YCHs, and Cubs games as long as Arrieta isn’t pitching.
Zkot, thanks for the comment yesterday.
Christian, good insight yesterday with DUST. Can you tell how many shares you got at $27.50?
Let us make money today.
Beware of the falling knife.
Do not mess with it, go short.
I don’t normally talk money at the dinner table Goild — sorry.
And I was taught in the beginning that it shouldn’t matter how much money you’re trading. Your EXECUTION should be solid and consistent no matter what.
How many people do you think are anticipating this?
Stocks are just dropping into a daily cycle low and since the cycle is right translated it should hold above the March low. It bottoms either today or tomorrow and then we head up and finally breakout of this sideways consolidation.
Gold which everyone is anticipating to go to the moon tops either today or tomorrow and starts a left translated cycle to complete its ICL.
I’m preparing for this scenario. I explain why in this mornings report.
Hard to predict in advance when SM is going to bottom exactly. vix and its derivatives will let us know when it happens. Have a great holiday, Gary.
I went over this in detail in the morning report.
The SM rise has been in good part a manipulation.
It is a scam and a such it will not end well. Sooner or later it will crash.
The SM candles are already faltering.
The Trump effect is quickly dying.
Wait till reality comes in.
We have not seen this scenario before, and no one knows what can happen.
Probably a black swan.
Trump never had anything to do with the rally. This would have happened no matter who was elected president. This was destined to happen the day QE 1 started. And every QE after that just made it bigger.
10,000 will be a piece of cake. 20,000 isn’t out of the question.
10,000 for the NASDAQ! what implications would that have for gold ?
I think gold is stuck in a basing pattern while stocks work through their bubble.
Remember me saying gold would form it’s cycle top some time this week?
I think it probably happened yesterday.
Ped has been quite the contrary indicator the last month.
Of course everyone is entitled to a cold streak from time to time.
Poke — haha 🙂
I hope everyone used this rally to unload their underwater miners.
This ICL isn’t done. The next leg down will be extremely damaging.
Ped has been a contrary indicator since the day he started posting here. Flip flops quite a bit.
That’s nonsense. He’s made some very good calls. He just got on a cold streak once he became bullish on gold. Gold started the declining phase of its intermediate cycle back in April. Once that began one doesn’t want to get bullish after rallies have run for a few days because there is risk the rally is about to top.
Yes Gary I retracted from buying miners I was close but sticking to the cycle analysis. I thought gold had its ICL alrdy but after the drop in miners yday decided to wait. I think now we will get a better opportunity to buy miners as we should retest May lows maybe just a little lower but I doubt you will get to Dec lows
Sea of red everywhere today. Feel a bit like a deer in headlights. Not really sure which way anything’s going today.
The favorite five are all up as are the semi conductors with the decliners leading the advancing stocks by a wide margin. Money is still drawn to the same old sector, that being tech.
Yeah. With all the money being pumped into tech, i wonder why we’re even bothering with the energy sector.
You can do some of each.
Gary. Realistically, how far can you see Silver dropping? It’s been hit very hard due to its low volume. If gold drops to a target range of 1160–80, where does that leave Silver?
I mean, does Silver even follow a cycle? I know it follows gold, but surely we can’t expect to see Silver drop past the December lows of 15.71, can we? Is it just going to go sideways, while gold drops?
Is that it for the sell off? QQQ is screaming upwards and my SQQQ is getting hammered. This is horseshit.
Probably. This move is looking a bit stronger than just a bear flag. Consider yourself lucky, silver has just fallen off a cliff.
SOLD about 50% of every position. Holding up the rest for now. Miners seem to not be following the huge gold and silver sell down……..YET!
They actually led it at the start of play. JDST and DUST were both up 10%. Seems to have pulled back to 5% now as buyers pile in to try and catch a bottom.
We had a big move up in Gold yesterday so a pull-back today was always in the cards. That being said, I do think that Gold still has a bit more fuel left in the tank and we could potentially see a bit more upside in the Miners if GDX is able to convincingly close above the 50 DMA. However, if GDX closes below the 50 DMA, then look out below…
Ps: I always thought Miners would top before Gold. This scenario could be playing out as we speak.. only time will tell 🙂
I believe I have found the law of the candles — it’s in the fractals!
Pretty sure I see what you’re trading, mate 😉
Lunch money starting to make sense…
hope to be in biz by the time of my 5 yr anniversary in trading!
It is hard to believe that the big money would be so eager to get into the market after a one day pull back and that they are piling into the same old sectors. Apple and Facebook are both up 1.6%. I guess that is what America is all about.
I concur on gold potentially making another high. The peak has a definite ??? on my daily cycle chart. GDX’s is closer (to meeting the mark of DCH), of course.
These, I believe, are moving into their respective intraday cycle lows… which I believe Gary calls “half cycle” (which isn’t really “half” — fractals can never be so regular as to divide in half).
Also began tracking the USDJPY pair this week. Current action there also looks like triangle consolidation prior to more downside.
sm getting ready for a flush down?
Sentiment was probably a little too extreme yesterday for another big drop today. Maybe tomorrow if it’s going to happen, but it is getting late in the daily cycle for both stocks and the dollar so a bottom should occur soon if it doesn’t happen today.
I wouldn’t want to be holding shorts Monday morning. The PPT loves to ram the market up at the beginning of the week.
Contrary to my care I got hook into the falling knife to be losing about $5K.
But did not loose the head.
I got positive with a lot of lunch money.
Zkot, can you explain how you relate candles and fractals?
It is perhaps because candles tell the f act s?
Thanks for commenting. Actually I like your answer.
The question was directed to get insight into money management and how much heat you
SM may end up today with the typical small doji. Meaning it will pause to think the next move which can be another red big candle.
It does not look to me that miners are going down anytime soon. Many have bounced back nicely and now I am losing money again as it appears more upside is coming after this consolidation. I am now officially on the slope of hope, hoping that we do actually get a pullback.
Nice wedges in JNUG and JDST.
Which way will the breakout be?
Make money on it!
I am going with JDST!
Gary, great videos and analysis. I got short the miners yesterday closing out my long. It seems like all of your recent calls are lining up together perfectly (including energy). Enjoy your vacation.
DaZeD – really – how are his calls lining up perfectly? All of Gary’s open positions are currently underwater – metals, energy and stocks. If his theories come true in the coming weeks then I can see us getting to break-even but if Alexandru is correct and crude/markets continue to move down through to July then we will go deeper underwater.
This is the difference between me and most retail traders. Notice how virtually everyone on here is chasing their tail trying to time prefect trades. I just try to get in, or out, when I think we are close to an intermediate turn. I’ve given up on trying to time exact entries anymore. The cycle duration’s have gotten so stretched and erratic that I just can’t time them perfectly like I used to.
But one doesn’t have to time perfect entries to make good money. In fact if one is constantly stopping out trying to time perfect entries or avoid wiggles all you end up doing in the long run is making little or no long term gains.
Gary – I agree – one does not have to time perfect entries. But you also need to be careful with your words as a lot of people follow and trust your calls.
So for you to say get out of gold, despite there being a clear upside opportunity at 1220 (May4/5), lots might have followed that advice and missed getting out at a higher price at 1260 yesterday.
Now you are saying this is your last chance to get into the SM – well – seasonally speaking – there’s possibly a better price to be had end of June/early July for TQQQ.
I understand you are confident but this can end up costing some people. Your portfolio may be up, but that’s only if people follow every single one of your trades from inception, not necessarily – what it’s done as of late.
You’ve got to be kidding right? Now I have to take the blame for every missed opportunity no matter how short term?
I guess I’m to blame for not foreseeing the rally in 3D printers. I’m to blame for not foreseeing the rally in solar, or missing every wiggle in nat gas?
Get serious. A missed opportunity is not a loss. There is always another opportunity. Missing one is just par for the course in this business. We can’t anticipate every wiggle. The best I can do is try to get the big swings right. I’m not going to be anyones day trading guru. No way I ever want to sit in front of the computer all day every day playing that ridiculous game.
And why would anyone be late to a trade. Unlike 99% of other newsletter writers I have actual portfolio’s with real time calls. Everyone can register to get text alerts. There is no reason one can’t place a trade within 30 seconds of me making the call.
Gary I want miners cheap but im not sure I can get it at lower than Dec. l don’t want to miss out on the rally once this DCL completes so plan on starting to buy once we near the Dec lows
Indeed, going with JDST made money.
Worley says physical silver is a strong buy.
It’s been a strong buy for 2 years, what’s the point? It was a steal last fall.
Worley’s pt. is: Don’t expect gold & silver to make new lows, or perhaps marginally. We shall see. 😎 👍
Crude oil was up today as was almost every sector of the market with the exception of Gary’s newest buy recommendation, that being energy. XLE and ERX recovered nothing of yesterday’s bloodbath. Now that he is afraid of the biotechs, XBI gets a healthy boost of over two percent today. (shaking my head)
And just like virtually all my calls you don’t believe me and can’t take the trade at the bottom because it doesn’t do what you want it to do immediately.
3 months from now I predict that energy trade will be up 70-100% and you will have missed the entire trade because it was a slow starter.
Oh well you can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make him drink.
Just like all retail traders you are short term oriented and can’t see the big picture.
No one believed me when I said the dollar would decline. I was of course correct, but the trade took awhile to develop.
Now of course they won’t believe me when I say the dollar is ready to rally. The bloodbath phase is either complete or near completion.
No one believed me when I called the bottom in gold in December. I was correct and we made great profits off that rally.
No one believed me when I called the top in miners in February. Turns out I was right again.
No one believed me when I called the top in April, virtually to the day. Right again.
Everyone told me this was a new intermediate rally. I told you weeks in advance exactly how this would play out. It followed the script perfectly to the letter, yet again everyone said I was wrong. I’m pretty sure gold topped yesterday.
No one believed me when I said months ago that stocks would rally like crazy once the Nasdaq broke out of that 15 year base. Again I was correct and the bubble phase has begun.
I’ve warned time and again that the Nasdaq is going to 10,000 and maybe 20,000. Folks we have literally trillions and trillions of currency units pushing this market higher yet everyone for some insane reason wants to try to find a reason for why it should go down.
How many more calls must I get right before you people start paying attention, or are you only interested in trying to find a missed trade? Sure I’m going to miss one from time to time. But are you really going to have a winning strategy by trying to pick the 1 or 2 times in 10 that I get a trade wrong?
I dunno how you put up with all the crybabies Gary..! Now you know why I’m always bitching at them, Lol
Gary u r on a winning streak but ur soon due a bad call but I believe u r going to get these next calls right. Don’t get too overconfident. There is still a possibility of oil heading to 40 and gold miners not going so low as ur prediction. Avi Gilbert is saying that GDX in the 20 region should b very strong support
Oilers ready to move higher over the next several weeks. Should support the SM, I think.
Oilers were eliminated by the Mighty Ducks.
Talk about a rally killer, just throw water on the fire.
Now this is interesting !
The financials do often start to diverge at market tops, although the divergence can continue for many months.
The advance decline line also typically diverges. We don’t havethat in the AD line yet.
I’ll say it again: 10,000 will be a piece of cake. 20,000 isn’t out of the question.
Recessions are triggered by a shock to the economy. A financial crisis isn’t necessarily a shock to the economy. We had a financial crisis in 87 and no recession. We had a financial crisis in 94 and no recession. A huge financial crisis in 98 and no recession.
We had a huge inflationary spike in energy in the early 80’s. Result – double dip recession.
Another big inflationary spike in energy in 91. Another recession.
Big spike in oil in 2000. Mild recession.
And finally a monstrous inflationary surge in 2008 leading to one of the most severe recessions in history.
Inflation tends to collapse consumer spending causing recessions. Financial crisis tend to activate central banks to slash rates and print money which tends to correct the crisis and eventually overstimulate the economy which if the inflation gets to the energy markets can cause a recession.
And don’t forget u made several bad calls prior to Dec 2015 on stocks and u made a very bad call in gold miners in august
I’m not sure what you are talking about stocks in Dec. 2015. I was the one saying for months that stocks were going to be due for a 7 YCL. When everyone was calling for a new bear market I was one of the few steadily maintaining that we were not entering a new bear market.
Yes it was a big mistake to take that long trade in miners in Sept. Long trades late in an intermediate cycle are risky. Now you know why I had no desire to trade from the long side over the last couple of weeks. There was no need to make that mistake twice. That was a trade that it was safer to just pass on.
“can you explain how you relate candles and fractals?”
I’m looking at some notes I scribbled 4 years ago while learning the wave principle:
-All degrees of trend are operating simultaneously, all the time.
-The wave structure is more important than your forecast.
Put the two together. The pattern structure will be intact at each fractal, as evidenced in the candles. Once you start breaking down the trend:
What is it doing on the different fractals (cycle degrees), according to ‘the law of candles’, NOT one’s forecast?
Did you have a forecast (a market prejudice)? If so, dump it, and watch the candles. You need to have the discipline to get the noise out of your head and identify the degree of trend you’re trading. The trend one degree higher should indicate directionality (the answer to the JDST or JNUG question); the trend one degree lower should identify your exact entry and exit points. And the degree in question should define the move from beginning to end, yielding your stop loss setting, as well as your target area for exit. You will trade that wave at that degree, in its entirety, start to finish, regardless of whether you’re trading yearly, daily, or even shorter fractals.
Once the fractal you’re trading is nearing completion, you’re back to looking at what’s happening one degree lower, to work out your precise exits. First exit should put your trade at zero risk and have a soothing effect on your nerves, freeing your mind to make better decisions. Second and subsequent exits should lock in and/or extend/embellish profits. Even if the subsequent exits are inferior to your first exit, they will still be profitable. Hence the benefit of converting the trade into risk free status — it removes the “do or die” drama from the trade.
If you are doing this informally, you need to formalize it (rules).
If you are winging it, you need to quantify it — then have the discipline to follow your indicators as they are identified — quantitatively.
You have a hunch? Great — good job in identifying a potential trade setup.
Now quantify your hunch, before putting money at risk!
And that’s what I’ve been working on since April 23 🙂
arcticfox, Thanks, something is brewing with our banks, needs close attention to get out trading accounts in time…, but when everyone rush to the door they will suspend transferring.
If I remember right he was the one who was bragging about how great of a trader he was when he bought miners a month ago. GDXJ immediately reversed the rally and is now far underwater.
Of course he’ll claim that he exited with a profit as all internet trolls make perfect trades 100% of the time.
But I think we all know he got dragged down into a big loss.
Gary, BPGDM (sentiment) has risen to 42 or so. Are you still convicted this one has to go below 20 before miners are a buy?
BPGDM isn’t a measure of sentiment. It’s a measure of how many stocks are trading on a point and figure chart buy signal.
It’s a measure of overbought vs. oversold.
Yes I think it should fall below 20% at a final ICL.
You think Gary is on a winning streak? His portfolio is getting destroyed at the moment. Hasn’t made a winning trade in months.
People like you sicken me. Arrogant, derisory and narrow-minded. You are also a boot-licker which to me is indicative of an idiot. People like you add no value to this world.
It is bewildering that you can still make all these claims about calling a top or a bottom. Sure, if you call a bottom all the way down eventually you will get it right. You say things like “no one believed me when I (insert astute financial call)”. The truth is, after finally learning how to use stops after 10 years of “trading”, you’ve stopped out a staggering amount of times in the last couple of months. When was the last time you made a winning trade? How much of the “150 percent” profits in your metals portfolio still remains?
Shows how much you know.
We did almost 10% in the stock portfolio in just a couple of weeks.
We don’t know where the metal portfolio is going to be at yet. The last trade is still open. I’m holding it until I think the next ICL has bottomed. For all we know the metal portfolio could be up 200-300% by that time.
The only trade that is taking time to play out is energy. I’m content to let it work as I think we either have a bottom or are very close to one.
terryng, looks like you lost money and now want to bite everyone on your left and right…
Thank you 🙂
Chart patterns are rubbish by analysts who don’t trade and just divert your attention away from the market.
Anyone who traded the knee jerk reactions this week has done ok.
Thanks for the reply. I will get back to you as I just wake up.
It is good to know you are still around.
Your expertise is much appreciated.
Let us be constructive and make money.
Gary is going to be right on the metals call… not so much on the oil and stocks
Heck I’m already correct on stocks and the odds are good I called the bottom in oil as well.
Day 6 of the bloodbath phase in the dollar. We’ll get a final bottom by early next week.
A 38% retracement of the entire 3 year cycle would be back to 94.30. That would be one hell of a panic over the next 2-3 days. Not sure it will make it that far but if it does that’s where one should be buying dollars.
USD has good support at 96.86 for now then 95.70 area at the lowest.
Maybe, but during a bloodbath phase (and this should also be the 3 YCL) support doesn’t mean much. Price can cut right through support zones like a hot knife through butter during an all out panic.
GDX is leading the pace for the miners.
I will be adding the second half of my ‘short’ today or possibly Monday. I think we could get a re-test of the breakout around $28, give or take.
Boot Licker — signing out!
which is indicative of an IDIOT. Valueless.
Valueless? How so?? My trades have been pretty spot on you F*cking tool, Lol!
Liquidated it all on today’s bump. 100% cash for now. Wait for funds to clear and re-evaluate what to do next week.
I expect GDX to $17 and GDXJ to 22… Gold to 1130ish by june 14th FED date… That’s a good 25% down on Miners…
Just like it always is. Right about the time eveyone starts saying I’m wrong on a trade it takes off.
Oil has completed its YCL and it’s off to the races now.
You have proven your worth! Congrats.
But I will not be impressed until the big three are complete and my great great great great grandkids sell my shares at $500 Jnug, $5000-10000 Gold, and 10000 Nasdaq.
10,000 Nasdaq will come first. Then when the bubble pops all they liquidity will flow into the metals market producing a bubble there next.
and not to exaggerate 20,000 nasdaq is quite possible. Hell, 10,000 is cakewise.
shouldn’t we get failed IC before YCL, particularly here in Oil? Or what other indicators do you consider to label it as YCL? I know it looks like semi-YCL but i’m still learning.
And second question. Do you consider stocks correction to be finished?
There is no rule that demands a failed intermediate cycle, not when an asset is in a bull market. A failed daily cycle is common and we have that in oil.
Stocks are probably finished with their correction. However we may get an all out panic in the dollar early next week. That could have an effect on stocks for a day or two. So I’m not going to rule out one more push down until I see what the dollar does on Monday.
Maybe, unless the dollar reverses, the Euro is closing in on resistance.
But support/ resistance lines are make to be broken like contracts, right.
Oil up is lifting gold also.
Oil isn’t lifting gold. The dollar moving down into its 3 YCL is what is moving gold. The fact that gold can’t make a higher high during this process is extremely bearish for the metals.
The miners are going to take out the December lows during the next leg down. Get out of the way.
lol I say December lows hold. Start buying miners if it gets near Dec lows! Look how strong GDX is today
We’re getting a 3 YCL in the dollar right now.
Now extrapolate that kind of selling pressure to the metals market in about 4-5 weeks and you’ll have some idea of what is in store.
What strength are you talking about? GDXJ is about to move below yesterday’s closing low.
If you have been paying attention then you know we want to see miners take out the December lows. The further the rubber band stretches in one direction the farther it goes in the other. So if you are in the camp that wants to see another baby bull rally this summer then we are praying for the lows to get breached. Just sit on the sidelines until it happens and then buy like a drunken sailor. You will make an incredible amount of money coming out of the next ICL.
But it is remarkable how well gold is holding up to the SM.
You are looking at it all wrong. It’s remarkable how weak gold is considering the dollar is making lower lows and moving down into a major 3 YCL.
Ok I am unfamiliar with cycles greater than Intermediate still learning. But if its 3 YCL the next move up in USD should be very powerful then
Yes. Now you see what is going to drive gold lower into the next ICL.
Robert, just look at UUP. Bull flag with oversold conditions. Ready to at least run back up to test the channel?
Right gold is just bouncing off support after the knee jerking.
And what’s going to keep the miners and metals from collapsing when the SM liquidity bubble ends this time around?
I am glad I followed my rules and sold SQQQ at the close yesterday. I have done nothing today. I am afraid to short the market as it looks very strong. Best to stay on the sidelines.
What’s your rule here? I’m still locked in UVXY with small loss and waiting for some kind of pullback to leave under better circumstances.
I would never trade those things during the bubble phase for the very reason you’re seeing right now. Corrections can end abruptly and volatility collapses.
Or you could just follow my advice and buy some energy stocks and hold onto them for the next 3 or 4 months and make a shitload of money.
Gary I am looking back on gold. This drop could have just been a half cycle low and we have 1 more high before the top
Do you really want to play musical chairs with the gold market and risk getting caught when the dollar bottoms?
Haha no sir
While I am somewhat bearish on Crude longer term, I show that WTIC found a 5-6 Month Intermediate Low back on May 5th.
Here is a recent post on my WTIC Crude cycle analysis. I am long UCO here from May 11th.
Anyone follow BitCoin here? Does BitCoin have cycles? Here are a couple of posts for those interested.
Got my lunch money and I am done for the day.
This week has been awesome, and last one too, and next probably too.
Become a day trader and you will sleep well.
Have a nice weekend!
I paid for your lunch this week. Enjoy!
Market players are obviously in a ‘buy the dip’ mentality. I don’t believe the central banks would be jumping in after such a small decline. There is no telling how high the S&P will go or if it will just fizzle.
We will probably have to wait until next week to see if this rally is sustainable. I did not remove any shorts but I am not adding any either.
Don, can’t you see that there is no money to be made on the short side of the SM? Corrections are now being limited to just one day whereas advances go on for weeks. Give it up man before you go broke!
Surf, I think crude saw merely a DCL in May; for me there is nothing to change my view stated 1M ago that the last ICL was on MAR22.
I am still holding my shorts of natgas+oil+cotton expecting further downside motion.
There’s no doubt at this point that oil has formed its yearly cycle low. OPEC served notice that they aren’t going to let oil drop any further. You need to be on the long side of the market now.
Yeah, right. We have all heard that before. OPEC hardly ever honors its word.
I followed your advice—energy/oil– as I said I would on Weds.
Bought 8500 shares of SN @ 6.43 already up 40 cents as of close today. I will sell if it pumps more before the meeting.
Remember the headfake OPEC gave last fall that trapped bears at lost moment.
Alex, While there are no absolute rules in Cycles, their is a very strong Norm that an Intermediate Low is followed by at least one Daily or Trading Cycle that makes a Higher Low. As this never happened with Crude, I don’t see how you can label March as the ICL.
Also, we usually see a Failed Intermediate Cycle into a Yearly Cycle Low and this has not happened with Crude. Again this is the Norm so my expectation is that the current Intermediate Cycle that started in May will make a lower High this summer followed by a lower Intermediate Low in the September/October timeframe.
Gary, OPEC’s and Russia wording was not decisive as you describe it.
The last times I remember decisive talks were Swiss Bank’s declaration some 4 years ago to print as much money as necessary to ensure a certain band for EURCHF and Draghi’s speech in 2012 to do all that it took to quell markets’ concern on sovereign debt and …the decisive talks did work, all malaises stopped: both the appreciation of CHF in the former case and the zig-zag of stocks staging the straight bull from 2012 till Dec2014.
Price action post OPEC meeting on Thursday should show it unless they come with that decisive talk – highly unlikely.
…besides…take a look please at COT reps for Natgas and Crude: Natgas is ultra-massively-supra bearish on a hostorical basis while crude is far from a bullish stance –> should that OPEC talk be so decisive how come that commercialls have failed to hurl into buying it by Tuesday’s closing to see it now ? 🙂
And why is oil is so hesitant in its rise of the would-be YCL ??!
Things do not add up for the Energy Complex otherwise than if we look South.
…after Thursday’s OPEC meeting, oil will be left not bear-feet but naked with IEA’s report, OPEC’s report, summits and DOE’s weekly report just behind it ….naked in a void…only dumb retailers will buy oil in that predicament.
Natural gas is a completely separate Market from oil and has no bearing on the oil market.
It really doesn’t matter whether OPEC honors the production cut or not. As long as they are talking about it it will be used as the excuse for the yearly cycle to bottom. The cots I’ve gone from extreme bearishness back to neutral which is good enough to complete a yearly cycle low. And oil is hardly hesitating it has rocket launched straight out of that bottom over the last eight days.
Gary, re. dollar rally? Long energy in all it’s forms for quite some time because it’s been cheaper then anything else but your anticipated dollar rally is usually best for the PG Procter &Gamble’s of the market? Dollar up energy up, Hmm?
Absolutely. Energy will follow the stock market anticipating improving economic conditions which will actually be the case over the next year
gush not going anywhere, just doing sideways.
looks like GCM has some energy to go north..
Yes!!! Go baby go! 📈 😎 👍
I’m not sure how you guys can manage to be wrong at every single major turning point. I guess that’s why most people don’t make any money in the market.
You are making money. Why worry about something over which yo have no control?
You need to get the money for all the winners somewhere, Gary. Be thankful.
Thanks for the reply.
Net weekly gain for GDX and GOLD. Net weekly loss for DOW.
USD/JPY ,watch for another leg down early next week. Markets could easy drop 500 pts.
Nice weekend to all.
When Gary says he has been saying for a long time that the dollar was going to fall, he means it. I came across one of his postings from way back in August of 2016. Check out his graph .
It looks like the dollar was in .945 range at that time so it has a ways to go yet but the man sure has some fantastic long range insight.
JJ: That chart looks like Gary was expecting the dollar to decline from that point, which did not happen at all. The dollar now is still above where it was back in August of 2016. So, how do you figure that to have been “fantastic” insight?
Give it a rest Perry Mason, this case it way over your head……clueless as usual.
Gary,am a newbie to the market.. have been following ur analysis from last few weeks on gold…wondering how exactly u can predict the trend…thanks for helping us to learn..
It’s somewhat complicated. I cover it in the nightly reports.
This coming ICL in gold could not be a YCL as well because it will only be about 6 months from the last one. So does this mean that the 2017 YCL will see gold go even lower than this coming ICL? I dont understand the YCL
In a bull market the YCL has to migrate to either the middle or early part of the year.
Gary I just looked at COT there has been heavy short covering in gold and silver. There is not enough fuel to get a bloodbath phase in gold based on this. You need to still have heavy commercial shorts present
The commercials have covered a bit but are still a long way from reaching a Blees rating of 90 or higher.
So far they’ve covered about 56,000 shorts. The least ever was 64,000 shorts last year during the baby bull. Normal is about 100,000 -150,000 shorts covered during an ICL decline.
Thank you for taking the time to write the essay on the relation between candles and fractals.
I like it.
Specially the line: “have a soothing effect on your nerves, freeing your mind to make better decisions.”
I wonder at the very different trading perspectives we all have. It is quite amazing how we all see different.
For wave analysis, did you learn it in the Elliot book?
Have a nice weekend.
I am sorry to hear about your loss, and hope your profit starts a long stream of green candles.
Are you losing money?
Are you making money?
It does not matter.
What matters is to know why.
So find out why you lose money.
If you cannot do this then trading is not for you.
The royal road to make money trading is to specialize only on one system, stock, ETF, setup, keep it simple, and adhere 100% to it. Consistency and trading for the long run are essential.
Trade small money so you can think clearly and keep yourself from ruin.