67 thoughts on “TAKE THE LOSS NOW

  1. Gary Post author

    Weird. The video got cut off.

    I said we are going to break the March low in GDX. The banks will want to cover into a panic. Then there still has to be one more left translated cycle. So don’t be in a hurry to buy. Late May or June at the earliest.

    Then you can easily make back even a 50-60% loss.

    1. ras

      Ouch! Easier said than done. Most technical guys would have exited longs several days ago.

  2. Robert

    Money can still be made on quick bounce from DCL. Like a 3 day bounce or so then can add back to short positions

    1. Gary Post author

      That’s what people were saying on Friday, now look at them. This assumes one can time a perfect entry into the bottom.

      Judging by what I’m reading none of you are able to time a good entry into the sector. So best not to play with fire during a third daily cycle.

      1. Christian

        I’m gonna have to call BALONEY on that one, but thank you Gary for painting with such a broad brush ๐Ÿ™‚

        1. Gary Post author

          We’ll see if you can time a perfect entry into and out of a third daily cycle.

          Post your long entry and exit in real time with a time stamp.

          1. Christian

            Sure but to be honest.. I rarely trade against momentum and right now momentum is to the downside. I’m nimble but I’m not stupid. The time to go long will be at the bottom of this ICL.

            Ps: In case you forgot.. I’m the one that recommended DUST on Monday April 17th, just before you and your subs pulled the trigger.

      2. Robert

        True but short covering bounces are usually sharp so I think even if one bought here they will make money on longs. Gold way deep into this cycle

  3. Ed

    FOMC day on this Wednesday. Nothing will happen. But today and tomorrow are excellent days to jaw boning and scared shit out of GDX. If Gary is as good as what he says, I think he wouldn’t need this website. It’s always a lot easier to said and done. Yes, keep playing with that leveraged stuffs, you will end up like a gambler.

  4. cazabrujas

    Thanks for the video, Gary. I will hold on to my JDST until it’s time to switch to a long position.

  5. Christian

    Feels good to be making money on the short side doesn’t it Gary ol’ boy ๐Ÿ™‚ Mouhahahaaaaa!

    Folks you wouldn’t believe the number of times we got shat on for having the ‘Cojones’ to make money on the short side — kinda feels like I’m getting the last laugh on this one G-man!

  6. jacob2

    Won’t short gold but have been accumulating biotech shares the inverse gold/commodity trade imho. So far so good.

  7. ocram

    What it’s clear to me is that we cannot anymore speak about a new gold bull market,there will be some spikes due to oversold levels but it’s almost impossible to hope for a new PM bull market.
    I was hoping for a PM stocks new bull but it’s very depressing to see the miners indices that are erasing all the gains from the so called baby bull at the beginning of 2016.
    I

    1. Christian

      Ocram — Precious Metals and the likes is a ‘Boom&Bust’ type of industry. It’s also the most lucrative for those savvy enough to recognize it for what it is. None of this should be a surprise. Just don’t stand in front of a moving train.

      1. ocram

        I completely agree Christian,but after a ferocious 5 years bear market in gold and silver and an even more ferocius bear market in the PM stocks versus gold/silver,I was hoping for a PM stocks bull market since the jump at the beginning of 2016 had all the signs for this event.
        Maybe Gary is still convinced that we can have the greatest bull market of all times (pm stocks) but after this continuous weakness in the sector I’m a bit disillusioned.

    2. Gary Post author

      This absolutely is a new bull market.

      Again I don’t know how many different ways to say the same thing. Gold is stuck in a basing pattern while stocks play out their bubble phase. Basing patterns are hard to trade.

      It’s not any more complicated than that.

      I guarantee the next intermediate cycle will be a scorcher and some really good money will be made.

      1. ocram

        Gary you read into my mind and commented before I had finished my sentence….let’s hope you will be right!!!! ๐Ÿ™‚

  8. Don

    I am not so sure that this is the time to “take a loss”. How much more downside can realistically expected for the miners? I am taking a licking on my silver position and I will average down rather than sell at a loss. That method will look stupid if silver falls much further and will look smart if it suddenly reverses and shoots up.

    1. bill

      Well Silver went from $50 TO $35 in 24 hours 6 years ago today brother…these bastards can swing it either way with the wave for a hand.

  9. dboz

    Miners stayed oversold for months last fall. Still waiting for the bull market when they stay overbought for months. Outside of the baby bull run up, which seems so long ago, they have yet to even sniff that sort of momentum.

  10. TraderPete

    Silver is now due for a bounce. It is way oversold with a 14 day RSI of about 26.

  11. ARends

    I have done an overlay with GDXJ and spot gold of past 2 year with some level spacing that gives a pattern and indicates where gold lagged to miners and visa verse. My concern is that miners will flip back before gold to catch up. You might find it interesting. We banks might plan to flip miners back while we waiting for it to drop further. The resistance level count at the period. The cycles are the half circles. The lead was 3 months on both years start however 2016 was lead by gold and 2017 by miners. Looking at it with these resistance levels show the lead at each point in relation with a period to equal distance resistances. The convergence and divergence periods happened over 20-24 days. Hope this might also give other a different POV
    https://invst.ly/3uys7

    1. ARends

      There is another thing that with each miner acceleration from one-period resistance band jumps generally 3 band excluding the price compounding bands. I think a person can devise a plan better to position yourself for the reverse or extended rally looking at this from a different POV

  12. theworldwithoutfacebook

    I’ll buy leverage miners on the next 30% drop in the ETF while Gary is still waiting for the perfect crash to paint his Picasso chart of what he thinks should happen. He will get really close but miss the biggest bounce by a few days IMO.

    1. primetime

      WOW! Another 30% drop, that is ultra aggressive. Not me, I’m waiting for another 93.7% drop, then I’m backing up the truck! WTF

    2. Gary Post author

      Post your trade in real time with a time stamp and we’ll see if you can beat me.

      1. ras

        Tough to catch exact lows and highs consistently. A more practical approach is to take the middle.

        1. Gary Post author

          Easier said than done. Why? Because if one doesn’t know where the top is going to be how do you know where the middle starts and stops?You may think you are catching the middle and in reality you’ve just bought at the top of a brief rally. I would argue that a great many people have done just that with this rally because they were expecting the top to occur at much higher prices.

          I like to try to catch the bottom and then if I exit too soon it’s still OK. All I have to endure is the trolls telling me that we missed the trade. Of course that still doesn’t take any of our profits away so a little harassment from the fleas is a small price to pay to consistently make money (except in energy. That one has vexed me over and over).

          1. ras

            Very true. Very good point. For longs, I tend to wait until price climbs above rising mas on intra day time frames after price crashes through daily Bollinger lower band plus confirmation from number of days and price excursion amplitude, plus weekly price support. Enter the trade when price moves down to a rising ma on momentum pullback(willing to leave the initial part of the move to cycle experts like Gary). Not perfect, like any other method. If a trade does not pan out, just exit from the trade. It works for me.

            Harassment from the fleas? Let people express their opinions within bounds of civilised discourse and let everyone do what works for him. You are doing very well, Gary, congrats.

  13. theworldwithoutfacebook

    One think I like to do is track tickers in comparison to signal divergences. The extreme negative divergences trigger the largest rallies when they reverse. In the early 2016 rally Miners had a final crash as gold led higher. Looking for something similar over the next 2 – 3 weeks but fed driven news can accelerate targets.

    One big wash here and we got our long entry to hold onto for a while. Waterfall crash in miners possible with some extended GLD weakness. Looking like miners might bottom before gold this time around.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3AGLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p37641366571

    1. ras

      That would be roughly 1180. Very plausible. There could be minor upside flurries and swoons before we get there,though.

  14. cazabrujas

    Quick question, Gary: when the time comes to go long, will you get into GDX, GDXJ, JNUG or NUGT?

    1. theworldwithoutfacebook

      JNUG seems to have more silver exposure with GDXJ now so bigger bounce potential if silver continues to underperform pre bounce.

      1. cazabrujas

        Yes, but if the bounce comes before June 17 there might be complications due to the mess with GDXJ and JNUG rebalancing

    1. Gary Post author

      Ha, another serial top caller.

      No top until we get a bubble. The same as 2000 (tech). The same as 2007 (real estate). The same as 2008 (oil).

      There has to be a bubble with massive public participation.

      1. Gary Post author

        It did produce a sentiment extreme though.

        I think we’re slave to the stock market. As long is it keeps going up and up there isn’t going to be a lot of motivation to buy gold until we get a true intermediate degree sentiment washout. And that’s still 4-5 weeks away.

  15. primetime

    Gary,

    I just saw an article where B of A states stock market bullishness is at 20 month highs. And probably the start of the euphoria to cage the bull.

    If CB have all this investment in the market, how will they get their monies out? Will they pull the rug and initiate the sell off or will it come from dumb money?

  16. samhell

    I think silver is very undervalued here.
    People here buy etf or physical?
    I think when the shortage hits $50 silver will be easily surpassed.

  17. dboz

    Gary, you still have not addressed the scenario that would fuel another baby bull. If the markets are going to be in a blow off top for at least a year, the metals are going no where for at least another year. What would make June or July so special to provide some huge run up in metals when we have seen no action or evidence of any sort of run of bullishness for nearly a year? Miners did not follow metals, why? Because there is no money in the sector. Why? Because there is no bull market. There is no momentum. It’s a roller coaster of pops and then huge drug out crashes. Bear market action.

    The miners are going to be in serious financial trouble again and they are all reporting losses at this time as it is. It’s only going to be much worse with 16 dollar silver and 1180 gold. Why would anyone be bullish on miners in 2 months at those metal prices? The banks don’t have to drive miners down, they are going to be driven down all on their own with spot erosion and massive operating losses.

    You mean we may get a 3-5 week bounce off over sold like we did in December? There will surely be nothing to propel anything higher as anytime bullish sentiment hits 50% it crashes and everyone is too bullish. The only bulls even around are the bugs. You will need to sell the rip as it won’t last. Again, bear market action. Take profit at the first chance, no conviction in being long. Sit back and wait for the crash as the shorts pile on again. Day trader and swing trader action.

    The pattern just keeps repeating. The first few months of 2016 were different as we had a 5 year brutal bear so people got overly enthused so it lasted a little longer. We never broke the trend line. Still a bear.

    Big money left mid last year. We had the big dips in the market that triggered worry in late 2015 and early 2016. As soon as it appeared the market was off and running, the metals and miners totally collapsed as big money rolled back to the easy money in stocks.

    You are probably tight to sell now as the sector is moving back into no mans land. There are not going to be any new highs, as there is no fuel for new highs. There is no momentum so only stupid money and get rich quick dreamers place any money in the sector. The shorts win every time. Any run up is smaller, shorter and gives up price bigger than the time before. It’s a bear market.

    1. Gary Post author

      I call it the rubber band principle. The further price gets stretched in one direction the farther it tends to move in the other direction once the trend reverses. The banks are trying to force the miners far below where they would naturally want to go. When gold fails to make a lower low price is going to slingshot back in the other direction.

      This is the main reason the baby bull was so powerful. I predicted the baby bull would happen long before it did because I knew the bear market was artificial and when it came to an end price would react violently like a beach ball that can’t be held underwater any longer.

  18. Dday

    “….What would make June or July so special to provide some huge run up in metals ”

    A good point, if the markets are going to rally for a year, why would gold bottom in June/July?

    1. Gary Post author

      Sentiment. No more sellers left. The same reason gold rallied in Dec.

  19. dboz

    Gary, we have infinite sellers on the Comex. Especially in silver. Gold is not much better. The metals can be sold down to zero with ease with all the contracts that far exceed physical. No one wants physical. Until there becomes a change in mind set that is not going to change. Status quo will continue on. 7 billion dollars worth of paper gold has been sold in the last two weeks. We all know the only source for that sort of massive position. It gets tamped down at will anytime it starts to run. It has become obvious it will not be allowed to break the trend line. The physical demand is not there at these prices. As long as price keeps miners barely solvent, it’s easy to keep in check. That’s why Bitcoin is sailing. It can’t be controlled. It’s just a free market.

    1. Christian

      Then take advantage of the manipulation and run with it! Or get out of precious metals and buy stocks Old Turkey style. It’s really not that complicated when you think about it ๐Ÿ˜

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