300 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY – GOLD BREAKOUT?

  1. Dday

    I get the impression youre losing confidence in the certaintainty of a bank run on the miners that you have been proclaiming for weeks. Is that a fair comment

    1. Gary Post author

      Every time I think it might be different this time it turns out it isn’t.

      Gold still needs at least one failed daily cycle before I’m willing to call an ICL.

      The only thing that happened yesterday is the miners finally started to trade in step with gold, but there is still the problem that the dollar due for a rally out of an ICL and I’m afraid that will knock gold back down and continue the basing process.

      1. zbigkid

        Oh Gawd, how many proganosticators keep saying this time IS different in the SNPee 500 and Dow, versus 2008, and 2000, etc ??? At least 100 hundred that I’ve seen and counting. Everyone says stocks are NOT in any bubble. For stocks its okay for them to go up parabolically, without even nary a modest correction in the past 7 to 8 years, but for gold, its always and forever gotta take major dumps, before it can go up.

  2. Don

    Gary, during the bear market f 2013-2015, you wrote countless articles and appeared on radio talk shows, pretty much always bullish on gold ( that I am aware of anyway). Now that you confirm gold is in a bull market, you are doubtful about an entry point and even going so far as to buy a triple leveraged ETF (DUST) on the miners. ?????

  3. zkotpen

    Don,

    Interesting stuff to consider. I can’t speculate about what this one or that one is doing — machine, or human-programmed machine. I can certainly agree, I do far less backtesting over time. I’m more interested in real time testing, and then converting that into actionable practical strategy as quickly as possible, without sacrificing accuracy. How did my pitching coach put it when I was 12 years old? Accuracy first; speed second.

    Funny thing you mention machines. When I get down into the smallest fractals for which the data hold up, that’s where it really breaks down — I can only call it “human factors errors” or something like “machine orders error” or “market maker decision making inconsistencies”. So I don’t bother with the 2 smallest fractals — though I’ve identified them. I’d be willing to track the smallest one in a 24 hour market, the 2nd smallest in a 6.5 hour market. I similarly toss out the two biggest fractals: Multicentury and Millennium. Why bother? at least for now.

    But I will say with certainty, the first backtesting I did in November, 2015, was gold’s rally of the 2000s. Could I contextualize it?

    The following summer, for the benefit of a friend who is suspicious of commodities, I went back and had a look at DJIA charts leading up to the October, 1929, crash. I definitely contextualized it, but the question remained: Could one do anything to avert disaster if a similar situation occurred today?

    One principle is clear in my mind, however:

    Markets crave structure, and despise chaos.

  4. Dday

    Notice the previous 5 attempts retraced within a couple of dollars from the trendline. You can see the difference this time as it looks more like a breakout. But keeping an open mind on the 4h chart aproaching extremes(overbought).

  5. Alexandru Popovici

    Short Gold – this is the TIME to short gold!

    Closed all other shorts (oil, Natgas, cotton) –> CRB index has to go up in a dead cat bounce.

    I am long SPX and short gold.

  6. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary, yeap, indeed! I love when we concur ๐Ÿ™‚
    I have my stop for the short-gold trade @ 1300 sharp.

    We have a swing low in USX.

    Additionally, to get the overall perspective:
    – EURGBP pair was late in its DC and tremendously overbought –> hence I’ve been expecting it to start going down and…it has JUST DONE IT – meaning EUR to depreciate faster than GBP against USD through the next sessions while:
    – GBPUSD has confirmed being up in a new, fresh DC.

    All these data, plus the DCL in USDJPY suggest that USD IS GOONA BLAST IN A FEAVERISH MINOR TREND TO RENDER IT RUN INTO EXTREME OVERBOUGHT ZONE AS DEFENSIVES CORRECT WHILE TRANSPORTS GET RIGHT-TRANSLATION AND BORAD STOCK MARKET SENTIMENT GETS TO EXTREME COMPLACENCY!

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      After saying this, I expect, though, for further downside in USX (and a higher high in gold) –> YCL later in the summer, as mentioned many a time so far.

  7. Bill in Tokyo

    I don’t know beans about cycles, but I think Gary’s making the correct call here.

    – Since last Dec’s low, $GOLD’s been trending higher (making higher lows and higher highs).
    – But $SILVER couldn’t make a higher high in April, and instead it made a distinct lower low in May. Very bearish.
    – And $HUI is going in a triangle, best seen on a weekly chart. Even after today’s run, which I now wonder if it was short covering.
    – QQQ still is outperforming GDX and GLD this year (as explained in Gary’s last article).

    All I can say is wait for Gary, and you will succeed. That’s why I’m here anyways. He nailed the massive rally during the 1st half of last yr, when almost no one else did. That’s why he can afford to be on vaca for a few mos. ๐Ÿ˜‰

  8. bluelagoon

    Hi Alex – how far do you think NG and oil will go in this minor, corrective trend? And would you agree that NG has completed its DCL but is still heading towards its ICL?

  9. dboz

    Just as a cross reference, here’s a quick look at other currencies and gold. The Yen is bullish gold and so is the Rupee. All the others look rather muted at this point.

    I like to watch gold in Swiss Francs since the SWISS BANKS are the kings of gold storage and transfer.
    The monthly chart is the one to watch.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/Kx10yljH/

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/ySbxPqKB/

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/VqnXUyys/

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/wGRiERj5/

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/UIP2p8Fp/

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/YqRuYS7m/

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/RKVWVMoi/

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/7z3LvxAi/

    The Yen is trying to clear the 3/2016 trend line which is the flattest but has rejected from it for 3 days now.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/QCbEmOxy/

  10. dboz

    Looks to me like USDJPY is going to move up to the 110.56 level soon. It is ripe for a pop up. If it clears that, then it opens up to the 112 region again. We should know by next Friday if it is going to take off again or resume the downtrend.

  11. Alexandru Popovici

    BLUE, I think NG set its DCL on Monday.
    Its next ICL will also be the YCL but we are still many weeks away from there.

    how to play NG, then?
    wait for it to bounce (along w/ crude an CRB) to shake its 200dma and then re-short on the swing high –> all this by the end of next week.

    1. bluelagoon

      Thanks Alex. I was also watching NG on Monday and saw what looked like a DCL – which was in line with your call expecting a bounce sometime soon. I am long NG now and will keep my eyes open for a DCH as I do not want to be long into an ICL or YCL for that matter – that would be painful.

        1. Alexandru Popovici

          error: it’s about February instead of March. Thus an YCL in August would be about the right time for the next ICL, an IC about 24-week long.

  12. jake

    Isn’t this cycle getting stretched for it to be left translated?
    As long as gold doesn’t get to emotional here it could see better days after the FOMC of history repeats itself?

  13. Dutchisu

    Gary
    I agree we really need a failed daily cycle to complete the ICL but looking back 12 years I found one other instance where it looks like the ICL occurred with no failed daily cycle.

    Take a look at the summer of 2011.

  14. Steffmeister

    If history repeats, look at last summer. The low was 31st of May and the breakout was 3rd of June.

    Yes a serious low at summer solstice/midsummer but the low was 1 month earlier!

  15. Ed

    Dollar is behaving differently these days. Safe haven status of king dollar is fastly winding down. Many times I said earlier. News will drive sentiments and sentiments drive cycle. Any prolonged news cycle will create a havoc on your cycle reading. GL

  16. desertsun999

    Gary, a couple of observations. First one, It amazes me how everybody on this blog is willing to manipulate the multi-year chart of gold and say we have a breakout from the downtrend in 2011. Everybody wants to shave the wick on the weekly candle in 2012 so it matches up with their thinking. If this isn’t an example of herd thinking I don’t know what is. In reality, we have not broken out in gold and are a longs ways from it.
    Second one, I am almost positive that Tuesdays action corrected the condition on the COT outlier that we were discussing so this would in turn green light a move to the downside like you have been suggesting.
    Now a question. Are you still looking at this daily cycle for a corrective move?

    1. Gary Post author

      Absolutely. Once the dollar produces a multiweek rally out of its ICL gold will give us a true ICL decline and everyone will turn bearish.

      I’m hoping for a test of 1306 by the FOMC meeting to re enter shorts at a slightly better level.

      1. Ralph Wiederzane

        Gotta love it, Gary still looking to SHORT miners. If that doesnt qualify as disbelief and nobody on board, I dont know what does.

        And with how much conviction, for how long can you hold this upcoming short trade? It sounds to me like revenge trading, you want the money back that you lost, and you want it the exact same trade idea. Dangerous, amigo.

        1. Gary Post author

          I’m just following the rules of my system. Gold has a date with an ICL. The dollar has a date with a rally out of an ICL.

          That implies there is money to be made on the short side for a few weeks while the dollar rallies.

          I’ll have no problem going long but I prefer to do it when the BPGDM is severely depressed and everyone else is bearish.

          That’s not the case right now.

  17. Gary Post author

    I just posted a gold analysis video to the premium website.

    Folks the banksters painted the charts in the miners and suckered you into buying prematurely yesterday.

    The dollar still has a multi week rally ahead and when it does gold will give us a true ICL correction.

    Bull moves don’t start with everyone on board. They start with disbelief & anxiety . There is no anxiety right now in the metals market and there wasn’t much at the May low.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      the multi-week rally in USX is post-YCL which has yet to come sometime this summer –> gold has yet to see its YCH after it meets its DCL next week.

      1. Gary Post author

        I would agree with this also as I think the dollar rally will be a left translated intermediate cycle indicative of a new bear market.

        So yes gold will make higher highs later this year.

        Whether or not gold can make it to 1306 is beyond my ability to predict. If it does that’s where I would like to re enter shorts.

    2. Alexandru Popovici

      Gary, gold will not reach 1306 but in the next DC –> look at all treasuries: they are all with swing highs in and in DC decline already. With treasuries in DC decline, gold cannot rally to new highs (1306 you mention) until treasuries meet their DCLs.
      So, gold to see 1260 before meeting 1306!

      1. Gary Post author

        Heck there hasn’t been that much gain in miners. Only 12% in GDX and that assumes one caught the exact bottom and top of the rally…which no one did.

        I have a hard rule (ever since getting caught long late in the cycle back in Sept.) I never buy long late in an intermediate cycle. It’s just too dangerous. Timing has to be perfect, and if it isn’t you risk getting sucked down into the black hole of an ICL decline.

        I’ll pass on that trade every day of the week and twice on Sunday. It’s simply too risky.

          1. Gary Post author

            The same rule applies only more so. Late in an intermediate cycle it’s way too risky to trade GDX. If it’s too risky to trade GDX then it’s insane to trade a triple leveraged fund and risk getting sucked into an ICL.

            That’s what happened in Sept. and it’s why I now follow this rule to the letter. No questions.

  18. chrisG

    Gary you say gold will like correct a fair bit. It really look so base on my technicals too. But I am resisting taking my small profits. Since it’s a half position, sticking to my portfolio positioning now on. Anyway, viewing it as a possible small hedge to my stocks portfolio.

  19. Idontknowwhatimtalkingabout

    Once gold makes support on 1296, then it means 1359 will be tested. In the meantime, yeah, 1305 logical interim top as posted yesterday

  20. Don

    No one is jumping in to buy the miners this morning. Reassuring one another that being short gold is the correct play seems to be the theme.

    1. Gary Post author

      Once the dollar starts the rally out of it’s ICL you will see I’m correct.

      There will be a much better opportunity to buy gold later this summer.

      Right now the dollar is stretching the rubber band far to the downside. And you know what that means. The rally in the other direction will be strong.

      Always think of the market s a pendulum. The further it swings in one direction the more powerful the reaction in the other. The biggest moves are created when the pendulum swings to extremes.

      I would say the stock market is setting up for a big swing lower, but I doubt the PPT will allow it to happen. That’s why I don’t short stocks. It’s not a free market.

    1. Gary Post author

      Also doesn’t change anything. The deeper the ICL goes the further it will rally once the trend changes.

      If one can time a perfect entry into energy this is where the next big trending move will be. I gave up trying to time a perfect entry. The BPENER is at 15%. That’s close enough for me. There’s no need to whipsaw the portfolio over and over at this point.

  21. Don

    The same old pattern is in play with the semis continuing their parabolic rise and four of the big five up. It’s Apple’s turn to lead the charge.

  22. ziasDad

    There are several ways to draw the long term trendline or channel line. I have gold topping out yesterday right at one of those TL’s. In other words, so far the resistance represented by that TL has held.

    Using a different method for drawing the resistance lines (channel or TL’s), I have two other potential channel resistance lines, one at 1304 and another 1308-1309. In my opinion, we won’t have a solid breakout until we clear these levels. Then there’s often a runup, followed by a backtest of the broken resistance line(s). So in my opinion, IF gold is headed for a breakout, there will be opportunities to get long.

  23. chrisG

    Don, u have been harping for so long. Yes, this the pattern. But did u profit from it??? Lol

    I simplify. Amzn rallied from 10 to 1000, at 40, a guy could say, up 3x, too high, then $50, up too much, then 60…..100…200…300,…1000.!!!! Same guy, same complain. Made any? Zero

    1. Don

      Complaining? Just stating facts. We all need to watch for a change in established patterns as that will signal a change in market direction. So far, that has not happened for periods longer than one day since the market took off in November.

  24. Bigdaddy

    Friends, don’t panic over crude falling. I made some calls this morning and got the word to buy oils. Crude is not going to stay down for long. A war is brewing in the Middle East that is going to take a lot of supply off line. Gary and I are on the same page on crude. Stay tuned for more. (Also, buy SQQQ)

      1. Bigdaddy

        I dunno. Isn’t taking supply off line a fundamental? I am trying to figure out what oils to buy. I have one Canadian junior that isn’t doing jack all. ERX looks tempting but if crude falls , it will go down like a turd an a toilet. Got to think on this.

        1. JJHarmen

          BD, Be careful of the triple leveraged fund. New lows for it today. Looks ugly to my eye and catching a falling knife rarely works out well. Just my 2 cents worth.

          1. HomerJ

            BIGDADDY I ALREADY TOLD YOU THAT CANADIAN JUNIOR YOU KEEP TALKING ABOUT IS NOT A CANADIAN JUNIOR. IT ONLY TRADES ON THE VENTURE BECAUSE IT’S A PIECE OF SHIT

  25. riskybisket

    Lol congrats for stopping out of your DUST position right at the bottom. You are making a habit out of this.

    I’m not sure how a person can be wrong so many times in a row. A statistician would argue that it is impossible. But I being an empiricist have to accept what I observe before my very eyes.

    Btw, someone has done you a favour and meticulously tracked your portfolio returns here:

    https://goo.gl/ThUVhm

    Looks like you’re not doing too well, old chap

    Ciao,

    Terrywg

    1. Gary Post author

      Classic troll.

      We stopped out as soon as the trendline broke confirming the flag. The target for the flag is 24-25. So it makes sense to stop out and try to re enter at a better price, possibly after tbe FOMC meeting.

      As you can see we are still up over 100%. You act lime thats a bad thing. Really?

      No mention of course the stock portfolio tbat is way outperforming the SPX. And I have been doing my best to steer people into tbe stock market. Thats where the first bubble will form.

      1. Gary Post author

        Notice how there’s no way for me to win. If I don’t stop out then troll boy would come on in a few days and chastise me for not stopping out when I could have at lower prices. If I do stop out he’ll claim I stopped out right at the top. Of course without a crystal ball no one can know where the exact top will be. Plus there is nothing wrong with stopping out at the top. You protect against further losses and then move on to the next trade.

        Notice how trolls like this will never acknowledge any winning trades. That’s not their agenda.

        They will always claim to have traded perfectly…but you will never get real time trades out of them. It’s always after the fact. And when a trade goes against them they will claim to have somehow seen the future and gotten out with a small gain.

        This is what the internet produces. Small minded people with no accountability.

        I make my trades in real time for everyone to see. When I lose the trolls will show up to bash me. When I win they will ignore it like it never happened. When we got in too early and had a big drawdown last fall they were beside themselves with joy at our loss. But when we made it all back and then some in the spring you didn’t hear a peep out of them did you. ๐Ÿ™‚

  26. JJHarmen

    GDX has backed off some. I put a stop in a $23 just in case the miner rally dies. Did anyone jump into DUST? I think Gary is done with it for the time being.

      1. espresso

        Not often, however. The first four months after the ’08 meltdown (maybe it was after the ’09 bottom) gold and the dollar both went up. Then the dollar broke, but gold kept going. Mostly (I’d say over 90% of the time) they are inversely correlated.

  27. Bigdaddy

    SQQQ is looking good. I hope everyone followed my lead and has loaded up on the short side. I am not buying any oils right now. The whole stock market looks shaky. I will wait for better entry points on the oils.

    1. dboz

      I don’t know about that, the BIG BANKS have a LOT invested into the oil industry. I don’t think oil is going above $55.25 but I don’t think it is going below $35 either. Just like always you will hear some NEWS event or some EVENT will cause a spike up.

  28. Alexandru Popovici

    BLUE, do you see now why I told you NEVER TO PLAY MINOR TRENDS unless you come w a different trading system? and that the way to play Natgas was to wait for the bounce to exhaust ? ๐Ÿ˜€
    You have a lesson to learn out of today’s price action of NG.

  29. bluelagoon

    Alex – how do you know when the bounce has exhausted? And if it’s exhausted here, then could this past Monday’s low really been a DCL – with a high on Day 3?

  30. TraderPete

    There’s a divergence in the TSA indicator in both gold and silver. We therefore have most likely seen a local maximum and are now in transit to a local minimum in gold and silver.

  31. Steffmeister

    Lets close the gap at 1279 please!

    As far as oil goes. sniff sniff do I smell a Canadian forest fire, oh no we tried that last year, it’s too obvious? Or is it a MOAB going off in middle east?

  32. Christian

    Camping in the wilderness with no Wifi ๐Ÿ˜Ž
    I’ve sold half of my DUST position at a small loss. Gold still has a date with an ICL of some sort.

  33. Bigdaddy

    The SOBs are taking away my profit again. is it too much to expect a pull back once in a while? These endless recoveries after a minor sell offs are wearing me down.

  34. Alexandru Popovici

    BLUE, no, today cannot be the DCH of NG – at worst it is a continuation of the prior DC because it got rejected by its 10dma and has not got any confirmation of a new DC.
    I tend to believe that NG is in a new DC, though, but…we never now what tricks lady market plays, so that we must not get heated to trade every anticipated trend but trade only the most likely ones to turn odds on our side and survive long-term.

    Exhaustion is something that we get in time, with experience BY INTERMARKET RELATIONSHIPS.
    For instance, I was anticipating since last week that GDX would provide a higher high, above 23.67 early this week before rolling over in order to “EXHAUST GOLD” – this was my phrasing, i remember.
    And so it has happened ๐Ÿ™‚
    You must get a holistic view of markets to develop your Trading frameowrk of anticipated trends and then, on price action confirmation, funnel down your review and wait for an entry SIGNAL and even then you must consider your entry from a Risk Management perspective, to render it risk-wise –> it’s a whole process to push the buy/sell button !!!

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      Now the next asset to be rubber-drawn by EXHAUSTION is stock market and particularly Transport stocks.
      I’ve used the “exhaustion” word in this context already, so that now, by being long SPX, I run the exhaustion of stock market towards its YCH ๐Ÿ™‚

      1. bluelagoon

        Thanks Alex – good wisdom – I am always learning. I’ll see if NG recovers a bit tomorrow pre-mkt and if not, I will sell before the report anyway and see where it takes us.

      2. Alexandru Popovici

        ok, i’ll be more specific: i’ll close my long spx trade about the time i see transports index at a new high > 9407 & treasuries/gold confirming their DC declines and getting close to charting DCLs.

      1. Bluebellkid

        Yes it was. KGC had a really good day yesterday on above average volume and today held onto those gains on above average volume. It is only Wed. but miners are looking strong this week. If this move holds until Friday at the close then I say some cycles need to be aborted, stretched or recounted or whatever to reflect what the miners are showing us.

  35. Bigdaddy

    Don, do you think I should sell my SQQQ in the after hours? I am down on the position but not by very much. i think the market is going to correct and I don’t want to miss out. I promise I won’t hold you to any suggestions you make.

  36. Don

    bigdaddy: I don’t like to tell anyone what they should do with their money. However, have a look at the daily QQQ chart and look at yesterday’s highs and lows versus the same for today. Those are the points where selling (or buying) reversed a move. Look also at today’s recovery volume and compare it you yesterday. Make your own decision.

  37. Bigdaddy

    I see a lower high and lower low for today. I checked the S&P and it’s the same. A downward channel? I have decided to sell 400 and keep the remaining 500 SQQQ. Thanks friend, for your input.

  38. Alexandru Popovici

    I do not like many things in how today markets have closed.
    This I just closed everything and I am 100% cash waiting to reshorting the French CAC40

  39. Don

    My ZJG closed up another 1.72% today at 8.88, now up 12.8% from it’s low of 7.87 just five days ago. I sold 700 shares at 8.86 and retained 1500. This has been a great ‘contrary to Gary’ trade. I wish I had been shorting crude as another contrary trade.

  40. JJHarmen

    I didn’t get close to being stopped out of GDX and it closed down slightly. That is to be expected after yesterday’s monster rally. Let’s see what tomorrow brings.

  41. Alexandru Popovici

    I do not like emerging divergence w is oscillators, swing highs, tempting selling on strength, relative weakness of European stocks – something is brewing below SM optimism at a higher speed than expected so that I would rather wait and see

  42. KHT

    I know this is a day late but i wonder why Gary used a daily chart to try and show a possible breakout of a multi year trend.

    A monthly chart clearly shows that since 9-11 the down trend has not been breached other than a wick in 4-17 and then GC turned back into the descending triangle until 6-17 when the body broke to the upside.

    https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_07310cf6b412aa9d293ce47da6bc6d07.png

    This does not signal a new bull market. What we need is a successful back test of the downtrend resistance to become support but if the back test fails and drops back into the triangle then the down trend, bear market, is still valid.

    1. Dday

      Its a breakout on the weekly unless gold falls below the trendline before Fridays close.

      https://invst.ly/42ntj

      And from your chart you can clearly see its breaking out on the monthly as well. It tested downward resistance in 2015. Why does it need to retest?. I was inclined to wait for an ICL, but on the daily, weekly and monthly it looks like a breakout is occurring, I cant ignore that…

      1. Dday

        In summery, this is the triangle breakout Gary has been talking about for months. In my experience the majority lead to extended rally’s, why would this one be any different. Ok the ICL hasn’t happened, but How accurate is the timing on cycles? last year gold topped on July 6th… Looks like this has further to go. It is what it is…

    2. desertsun999

      I subscribe to stockcharts and when I create a logarithmic chart of $gold it has not broken out so this very interesting. On my chart gold would need to reach about 25 dollars higher and the same for gld unless you ignore the weekly candle wick in 2012.

  43. Gary Post author

    I’m watching the dollar now for confirmation of an undercut bottom. Once the bottom is confirmed we should get at least a 6-8 week rally and that would most likely correspond to a 6 -8 week drop into an ICL by gold.

    So I’m looking for a re entry into our DUST position but I’m hesitant to do it ahead of the FOMC meeting. If I miss the top by a few days it’s no big deal as the drop should last well into July and ultimately I think the miners will break the December lows.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      I do not think this will prove correct: USX’ advance and gold’s descent will be transitory through next week.
      USX’ DC which has begun today will fail too and gold will merely see a DCL next week after which it will move >1300.

      1. Gary Post author

        I don’t think that is correct. The Feb. low didn’t unfold as at least an ABC correction and it didn’t break the intermediate trend line.

  44. chrisG

    Alibaba premarket up 10%. Many China ADRs on fire. Yet some here still complaining about market. Please go improve on your watch lists guys.

  45. Steffmeister

    There is heavy resistance at $1305 from a few years back looking at a horisontal support/resistance line. it would be very nice to see it beeing penetrated in a near future to confirm the possible breakout.

    Or we will get a summer low that every expert is expecting … now that is what’s not going to happen is it?

  46. zkotpen

    Alex, Gary,

    Actually, I tend to believe there’s still one more daily cycle up in gold, after the forthcoming daily cycle decline. Intermediate cycle looks like we had 3 waves up (zig zag) to the April peak in gold, followed by an X wave down, then a daily cycle rally which I believe to be the first wave of the second zig zag. Although daily volatility has expanded a little in gold, intermediate volatility is not — price won’t get too far out of line, even into the intermediate & yearly high

  47. zkotpen

    Alex,

    USDJPY looks like it’s getting toward the top of its wiggle — will you take profits and reload on a pullback?

    Are you using leverage?

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      yes, I am on leverage. I covered my short-gold trade last evening along with the long-spx one; today I’ve re-entered short CAC40 as I find it a safer bet than any other now.

  48. dboz

    If gold keeps dropping and we get a false breakout things could get ugly quickly. Oil looks terrible. Dollar making a feable upmove. Gary appears to be correct, the SM is the only place to go right now. Commodities seem to be in possible deflation mode just like PED had been saying for months. Not sure where he went but he had good thought provoking inputs. USDJPY still has room to run so gold could come under pressure today. If gold fails to hold the 1280 level it will not look good.

  49. Bluebellkid

    The ERX trade should have never happened until it was able to break thru resistance. ERX rallied off lows the first week of May and closed in the upper half of the weekly trading range on above average volume which looked good. The following two weeks it was up but not able to break thru resistance (50 day) and volume was below average so that was your sign.

  50. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary:
    – on the contrary, the IC downward trend line after the Feb2 ICL of USX was broken on Feb13 !
    – mind crude is 1′ away from undercutting its prior DCL in May to render a failed DC –> energy complex has yet to exhaust all optimism to reach its YCL in early August or so.

    1. Gary Post author

      Even if I consider August as some kind of weird really short ICL I still don’t have a trend line break in February. And of course the overnight spike on the election was way too short to be an ICL and it also didn’t break any intermediate trend lines.

      We are just evolving really long currency cycles. The May low last year ran 36 weeks. Also way beyond the normal cycle length.

  51. ras

    nugt 1 day wonder? Nimble traders were able to make some. time for dust? gld getting ready to roll over? uup getting ready to go higher? Interesting times ahead.

    1. Gary Post author

      That’s what I’ve been saying all along. I suspected the Tuesday rally was a bankster strategy to get everyone buying so they could load up on shorts ahead of the DCL.

      One has to be careful with chart patterns in this sector. The banksters can paint the charts to say what ever they want them to say and many times they are painted so that retail traders and hedge funds will make the wrong trade at exactly the wrong time.

    1. Gary Post author

      Even a left translated intermediate rally in the dollar should last 6-8 weeks. That’s about how long it should take gold to find its ICL bottom.

  52. Gary Post author

    It’s kind of funny watching people come and go on the blog as their calls start to fail. When they get it right they post dozens of times everyday. Then when they start to get it wrong they disappear.

    Now it’s probably time for all the hard core bulls that got faked out into buying the break out to go into hiding for awhile and or Ped to return. ๐Ÿ™‚

    1. theworldwithoutfacebook

      Never bought into the false rally but it was depressing for a while seeing everyone make money. I really hope you turn out to be right on gold…..

    2. ras

      I am still here Gary. Probably, they are too busy making money to post here. We could get another shot at nugt. May be. I suspect many nimble traders picked some money playing the volatility in nugt/dust pair. Thanks for the update on fas. Have been wondering when this dud is going to make a move.

    1. Gary Post author

      I haven’t made many trades other than getting stopped out a couple of days ago. But we re entered at a better price than where we exited so no harm done.

      1. Robert

        Due to the sharp rise in gold, I think the ICL will be more like an ABC correction. Shallow drop then a spike up before the real down move. We all may have to wait a long time now probably July for the bottom>

        1. Gary Post author

          Yes the ICL should take 6-8 weeks. It’s not going to be a fast process, but it will be deep enough to swing everyone over to the bearish side. Sentiment in gold will be exactly like the sentiment in oil right now before the bottom.

        1. Gary Post author

          Nothing has changed. Gold is still due for a drop into a DCL and a true ICL.

          The dollar is still due for a rally out of an ICL bottom.

          The rally went a little further than I was expecting because the dollar cycle stretched further than anticipated, but the big picture never changed.

          I want to buy metals when everyone hates it like they hate energy right now.

          1. ras

            Hate energy? No. No likes and dislikes for players. Crude could be close to a low. Ditto oil stocks. Hard to understand what is accomplished by being too early and then rationalising it. Guess it is individual style.

  53. Bigdaddy

    Keeping my 500 SQQQ is looking like it was a smart move. The QQQ is down for a change. I am looking at Canadian oil ETFs. Oh, and HOMERJ, BKX trades on the Toronto TSX exchange and not on the Venture exchange but you were right about it not being a Canadian company. It’s American. So what?

  54. felix115

    I don’t know…. i’m listening the testimony of the fbi ex-director…. quite embarassing for Trump…. Gary, where goes the dollar (and Gold…) if Trump is impeached??….
    felix

      1. felix115

        Are you joking Don….?? I’m not american, but i know for sure that the President CAN NOT interfere with fbi investigations…. Here you have the Director that testifies under oath, that the president ask him to quit the “Russia gate”…. ๐Ÿ˜ฎ ๐Ÿ˜ฎ And you think this has not any legal implications??? What about “power abuse” for exemple…???? and worst, the real question: Why ever such a request from Mr. Trump???…. ๐Ÿ˜ฎ

        1. roadrunner

          actually you have proven by your posts you know very little and have trouble comprehending English. i suspect you are just repeating some propaganda that you are hearing on bubble vision. good thing you are not a lawyer.

  55. Don

    What is really funny is how the bears are all claiming victory when the miners pull back a little. They haven’t made bloody dime while gold and the miners rallied and most lost although they all say their losses were minor. What horseshit. I have buy orders in for long miner positions. I hope they dip a little further so I get filled.

    1. Gary Post author

      I think you should wait at least till the end of the month before buying. The drop into a DCL has to break the cycle uptrend line and turn the 10 DMA down. It also pushes the 5 day RSI into oversold conditions. And if an ICL has begun then it will push the 5 day RSI into deeply oversold conditions.

      The best time to buy is into those sharply oversold levels.

      1. Robert

        The problem now is do you try to time the DCL and get out of short position anticipating one more pop in gold then reenter or just ride out the ICL? Last time you tried to ride it out and it did not work out. Maybe this time the bounce out of the DCL will be what should have happened last time, a 5 day bounce before rolling back over and down into the ICL

  56. desertsun999

    I had to buy back in to silver for a short term trade. I just don’t see that 17.25 area being violated without a fight. I am in a different position than most as of late. I have hit two major home runs in silver by exiting the top in April and then buying the bottom in May. I just consulted the magic 8 ball about whether I should pull the trigger and the response was, “sounds like fun.” LOL

  57. primetime

    Gary I agree 100% with your post about disappearance from the blog. It is comical to watch. So boisterous when one little thing is right, but like a little kid when wrong.

    Most bloggers on here need to grow some stones and be a man.

    However, you have come close to being guilty of it yourself from time to time. Your disappearance has been evident on several occasions.

    Oh, that is right, you were dangling from some damn rock somewhere in the universe.

    Like Christian, in the wilderness? WTFE He was the number one post, until gold rises, then he is gone!

  58. JJHarmen

    I can’t see the miners reversing all the gains since their bottom back in early May. if I get stopped out I will buy back in if the price goes lower. Gary’s idea that they would be testing their December lows is just speculative.

  59. WYSIWYGN

    Well, Gary, I’m back on your blog. I was planning to go full in last Tuesday but this little voice in my neck said “Don’t do that, Gary won’t like you anymore”, so I got 5% in. Now, IF you turn out to be right and I can load up fully within let’s say 6-8 weeks, well, Gary, I’m then gonna buy you a pint of Belgian beer whenever you come over to my place (Europe). Or 60 pints of Belgian beer, whatever.

  60. desertsun999

    The miners are a casino bet right now. The $HUI topped right under the uptrend line and are now sitting on
    support at 195. $HUI 205 to 195 is “no mans land” big balls betting. I would have have to track down my wife to get my balls out of her purse for a bet like that…….LOL

    1. desertsun999

      The charts on stockcharts are not showing anything like that. $GOLD would have to trade above 1340 for a breakout on my charts. Why is there such a discrepancy between chart providers?

  61. ras

    It is risky to read too much into frequency of posts by posters on the blog. Like yesterday, if some one was playing volatility in nugt/dust pair, it is virtually impossible to find time for posts. No point in talking down individual posters and their ideas. No point in convincing others about a certain viewpoint. It is best for everyone to do what works for him. Polemics are simply unproductive.

  62. Goild

    Good morning,

    Who knows what in gold/miners market will happen.
    Have your JNUG and JDST charts, and make lunch money every day out of this awesome pair.
    Do not get too excited, work like an ant, bring that lunch money every day and before you know it,
    you will have a big account.
    Good trading to all!

  63. felix115

    4 billion gold future sale just before the Comey testimony!!…. ๐Ÿ˜ฎ
    Noooo, noooo, manipulation is just a paranoia from all this Gold fanatics….. :-))

    felix.

  64. Goild

    And ras is right,

    Be an independent trader/thinker.
    Though learn from the wisdom and expertise of the great folks in the SMT.
    Otherwise, let Gary guide you, follow him exactly, and you will get a big account too.

    1. Don

      Here’s a theory : pedestrian has not yet declared he has turned bullish on gold so there must be more upside coming. (I know you are watching this blog waiting for someone to beg you to come back… maybe Goild will oblige)

  65. Bob

    I’d like to see some good volume in jdst and dust. Not that it would make a big difference. I’ve held through so just waiting for the payback.

  66. Goild

    Yes, Pedestrian is missed.
    He has good friends here at SMT and he is truly appreciated.
    He must be taking a good vacation because his wife told him: you better stop being absorbed by the market and all of those charts.

  67. Goild

    Don,

    The performance of SPY is amazing.
    The thought that most countries aren’t doing well, and that US is offering hope, perhaps explains it.

  68. Don

    The rise of the machines (computer trading) is what explains it. That and the buying of stocks by central banks. Profits are way down the list of importance.

  69. dboz

    GUSH should take off on MONDAY, latest Tuesday. I may load the boat.

    The miners and metals have me totally frustrated. Sold for a better buying opportunity, now am underwater on many, just compounding losses. Losing interest since I have no clue when to get in now. Looks like they are just going to launch from here.

    USDJPY going up, Dollar up, Gold up. Guessing this AM was the opportunity to board the train. Only reservation is the volume is not there. The buying on Tuesday was possibly a weak short squeeze situation?

  70. Goild

    Gold is at a critical point, miners are low, there is divergence.
    Would gold pull the miners up?
    Or the miners would drag gold down?
    There is no clarity so there is no swing trade.
    Though with steel balls I would plunge into jnug/nugt; they can do amazing things.
    I got 3K USO shares, oil eventually will go up.

  71. Goild

    JJ,

    You all guys are in my mind. I have been busy with other things, but also trading like an ant: just some lunch money every day.

    JNUG is paying for a nice vacation my wife and I will take next month.

    Now I am aiming to have a balance of trades between JNUG and JDST.
    Also working hard not getting into falling knifes.

    Good trading to all!

  72. zkotpen

    Goild,

    Nice 2 C U bro!

    To your posts, I’d add:

    Avoid all of the polemics;

    Otherwise, no lunch money!

    As for gold & miners & USDJPY,

    Looks like gold is leading the charge downward:

    Miners & dollar-yen are hanging at their respective 5 day SMAs;

    Gold has crashed thru its, with an eye on the 20.

  73. Bigdaddy

    back from lunch. Nothing has changed. at least SQQQ is still up. I can’t bring myself to dive into the oils even though everyone seems to think they are going up. Doesn’t seem right.

  74. JJHarmen

    Don, our penny PGC is just sitting at 0.03. Is that it for the rally? Anything else you might think worth a taking a chance on and throwing a few bucks into?

  75. Don

    JJ: I doubt that a pump and dump operation would stop at 4 cents which was the high. The volume is good and it’s active so I am hoping for a bigger payoff but it might take months before it moves again. That said, penny stocks are strictly a gamble so don’t have any illusions about them. Another one I am hopeful on is SPD (on the Toronto venture) They actually have ownership of a mine and properties but it is another one that is just sleeping at 4-5 cents.

    1. JJHarmen

      Thanks. I am in no hurry to sell and I get your point. Why would a pump and dump stop at only 4 cents, if that is what it is. Maybe will turn on our computers tomorrow and it will be 40 cents or maybe de-listed. LOL. Anything could happen. Will have a look at spd.

  76. Bigdaddy

    The SOBs are doing it again, taking away my profit. There is never any downside to these markets. No pullbacks, no profit taking, no corrections. Just tiny sell offs and then up. How can this be a normal market?

  77. Bluebellkid

    Someone mentioned KGC yesterday and I have it on my watch list of possible miner plays IF things fall into place. BTG is another one. At this point both just appear to be pulling back within the upper band. With gold down as much as it is I would have expected more of a pullback in the miners than what we are seeing. Come tomorrow afternoon if they are near the highs of the week I will decide if I am going to start building miner positions again. FSM and IAG also look good.

      1. Bluebellkid

        GPL is still way below the 50 day. IAG and KGC have both had a golden cross and are above both 50 day and 200 day. BTG is above both moving averages but has yet to have the golden cross. Those stocks that have held up the best during this correction will likely be the leaders and do better than something like GPL.

  78. Christian

    Primetime โ€” not sure why you have such a “hard on” for me but I really appreciate it.. Keep it up, Lol! Pun intended ๐Ÿ˜‰

    I am currently camping in the San Juan Islands and have limited access to wifi and unlike you and all the other Goombas on this site, I have a life outside of the Markets and only choose to post on this blog if and when the mood strikes.

    The long and short of it folks is this: Gold still has a date with an ICL of some form, which means you’re either SHORT MINERS or sitting on the sidelines waiting for a better entry.

    I sold half of my DUST position yesterday just to be safe but kept my core position open. I will look to re-enter next week when intraday technicals line up.

    That’s it! You can all kiss my butt while I skinny dip in this beautiful lake ha!

  79. desertsun999

    I contacted stockcharts and asked them why their $gold charts vary from other chart providers and here is the response in case anybody other than myself is interested;
    Thank you for contacting us. Our $GOLD symbol is a continuous contract using the closing price of the ‘current’ contract for that commodity. The current contract is chosen based on trading volume. By doing it this way, we might not always match other sources, as we are not always using the contract that expires the soonest.
    I have been very satisfied with the charts they provide and how the markets react to those charts at critical junctures so I am sticking with what my chart is saying………we are 50 to 60 dollars away from a gold breakout of the 6yr downtrend line on a log scale.

      1. desertsun999

        That’s why I posted that article the other day that explains logarithmic and linear when somebody else was asking me about my charts. If I use the linear scale on stockcharts gold broke out 3 weeks ago.

  80. zkotpen

    Robert,

    “The problem now is do you try to time the DCL and get out of short position anticipating one more pop in gold then reenter or just ride out the ICL?”

    I have been saying no backing up trucks, etc., for about a year. Also saying daily cycles are best for at least 6 months, but now I can put it more eloquently:

    NO RIDING OUT IC’S!!!

    Waves B, C, and D and E will ALL BE THREES. I am talking about Yearly waves B (complete), C (in progress), D, and E.

    All will be 3 wave, ABC structures at the intermediate degree, characterized by deep retracements.

    I believe that will be the case for 18-24 months, until the next multiyear move down commences. If you ask again before that time, the answer will be exactly the same.

    I did 99% of my surfing as a teenager on the Jersey shore. And 99.9% of that during wimpy summertime. Still, there were opportunities to ride some decent waves, from time to time.

    Leverage makes the small waves bigger, too.

    Intraday and wiggles work — just ask Goild!

    You don’t need to go to Bells Beach or Bali to ride a good wave!

      1. zkotpen

        Robert,

        “I think your a permabull zkot lol”

        I’m a MODERATE. I’m an ECONOMIST.

        On the one hand…, on the other hand…

        But polarized, biased people have often projected opposing views on me — views which I do not hold — when I don’t agree with them.

        Multiyear rally in gold is sideways. I have no feelings about that, just trying to figure out if I can profit from it.

        My feelings are about other things, like places I want to see, people I want to meet, artistic projects I want to produce, math & science… and lots of magick, to be sure. Some of those things will be accomplished in this lifetime, others not, and I’m perfectly fine with that. Not a single millijoule of emotional energy for which way a particular market will go next — only hope I can figure it out beforehand, and successfully act on that!

  81. zkotpen

    Goild,

    Have you checked the posts in your absence?

    I posted 2 items for consideration. Perhaps you’ll find them useful, but worthy of consideration.

    1. Correlation of gold with silver and USDJPY; and correlation of GDX with gold:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p27580374779

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p58811078884

    2. Rules for choosing between trading miners, silver, and USDJPY forex pair:

    When GDX is (1) STRONGLY CORRELATED with gold AND (2) Iโ€™ve got a good read on both, then GDX is the better vehicle, for leverage GREATER THAN 3x. (If you’re only using 3x leveraged miners, the USDJPY forex pair is a much better choice, given the higher leverage and the extremely high correlation with gold).

    During a strong move, with USDJPY VERY STRONGLY CORRELATED with gold, such as April 17 to May 9, GDX might move 17%; NUGT/DUST would move 50%. USDJPY only moves around 6%, but with 50:1 leverage, thatโ€™s still 300%, over a 3-week period. USDJPY makes sense for the entire daily cycle decline or rally.

    The only time GDX will give you those returns is when both conditions Iโ€™ve stated are true. In that case, you can get the 300% in 1-3 trading days, with leverage in excess of 3x.

    Sometimes, both rules apply at the same time โ€” in those cases, trade both vehicles. For example, one could enter a trade for the entire USDJPY daily cycle move, and then enter intraday or wiggles in leveraged miners, when the conditions present themselves.

    Give these ideas some consideration — I believe they will improve your win-loss percentage and total rate of return, as well as allow you to take advantage of some longer daily cycle trades. The same rule for USDJPY applies to silver, with leverage greater than 3x, so long as silver is extremely highly correlated with gold.

    Happy vacation!

  82. zkotpen

    So far, looks like gold will continue to consolidate (how long? maybe all day Friday?) then complete the move down to mid-1260s (Monday?), before turning up for an intraday move up which I believe will be a bull trap, then reverse and proceed down for the daily cycle low. In summ:

    -current move down completes & reverses (Mon?);
    -bull trap makes a lower high than Tuesday & reverses (Tue, Wed, or Thu?);
    -DCL, which may extend into the week after next.

    Assuming the swing high in gold holds, that’s how I see the 3 moves down into the Daily Cycle low — my initial best guess would be 1230-1240 area.

    1. Robert

      Yes DCL around 1230 – 1240 area but that is not the end. We still have to make ICL so when that DCL bottoms one more bounce to form left translated on the next daily cycle then gold down to 1180-1200 area to complete ICL. Does this make sense?

  83. Alexandru Popovici

    I personally doubt gold will move up until after FOMC – no bull trap.

    How I see things:
    – FOMC raises rates,
    – gold dives to ~1240, eurusd to 1.11, treasuries down to DCLs and usdjpy up to 111.2 in immediate result,
    – sell the rumor buy the news: new DCs will emerge in defensives –> gold > 1300 towards YCH in July,
    – stocks dive in precipitated YC decline,
    – natgas resumes lower in a left-translated DC (now day 4).

    1. RTTPD

      Lots of capitulation in oil stocks……Im seeing some scream in pain, like Gary mentioned.

      Im even worried a few might swan dive off skyscrapers.

      They’re done……

      1. Alexandru Popovici

        not yet done well enough ๐Ÿ™‚
        the bottle of sentiment has yet to pour its last drop of optimism – it will do it later in the summer when pessimism will be all surrounding.

    1. Dday

      No i feel the same way as you, too confusing, maybe an ICL but also maybe a move to $1377, both possibilities feasible… Not sure so staying in cash for now.

  84. dboz

    I troll the internet and see many blog articles and posts full bull and many full bear. Those calling for 1400 to those calling for 1100. I guess that’s what makes a market work. Tallish just posted that huge commodity bear piece yesterday on Investing with 20 charts supporting his outlook. Every commodity appears deflationary.

  85. zkotpen

    Alex,

    Wave B, by definition, is “trap”. It’s the “correction to the correction”.

    It has to happen. If the daily cycle move down consists of intraday cycles A, B, and C — you can’t just skip B. Especially not in a corrective move that is itself a trap (daily wave B of intermediate wave Y of yearly wave C). So it’s like a trap within a trap, within the final intermediate move up to the yearly cycle high.

    Sound confusing? Corrective waves are confusing — “complex”… ๐Ÿ™‚

    1. dboz

      Sounds impressive but just say we are going up or down. EW is great and all but counting waves is not something I want to get absorbed by. The count is always changing and evolving and negated and best fits and alternates.

  86. zkotpen

    Alex,

    As for my timing calls, I’m just giving it my best guess. I have observed over the past few years, that FOMC meeting & minutes week is good for 1-3 reversals. They can happen any time during that week. If there are multiple reversals, at least one usually occurs before 2pm Wednesday…

    1. zkotpen

      … so reversals would be current wave A down completes;
      subsequent wave B up completes (bull trap);
      then wave C down completes, to complete the daily cycle decline — probably the week after FOMC week, if I had to guess on a timing of the DCL.

      Currently working up the forecast for USDJPY — so far, the Intermediate prognosis is the exact inverse, with corresponding support and resistance.

    2. dboz

      Agree here. The Friday before seems to be a rather bleak day but I don’t track it, just what I seem to remember suffering pain in old turkey mode.

      1. zkotpen

        dboz,

        Sorry — I can’t guarantee simplicity. I can get so wrapped up in the fractals… and the complex corrective ones are… complex!

        I will try to simplify. But when I get caught up in a fractal, I get lost in it. Like, that becomes a complete universe that I go to.

        For example, before working on USDJPY, I was reading a book. But on the computer screen, I left the chart for USDJPY — it looked cool! So I kept looking up from my reading to the chart… it took me about an hour to read 5 pages… no kidding! I was caught between three worlds, or more — the real world, the book, the USDJPY chart… and an old 12-hour recording of Rachmaninoff playing the piano… time and space cease to exist while I’m listening to Rachmaninoff!

    1. Gary Post author

      Give it about 6-8 weeks for the dollar rally to run its course and gold to find its true ICL. Then back up the truck just like you would ahead of a baby bull.

      The rally out of the summer ICL will be a monster.

        1. Gary Post author

          Yes the ICL has now begun.

          When this is over and we’ve made another tidy sum in the metal portfolio I’m going to see if any of the usual trolls have the f**king balls to complement me on a job well done.

          I doubt it though. They prefer to ignore all my winning trades and only focus on the drawdowns

          1. tfinavia

            Gary, well done and please keep it up. I want to wish you a lot of profit out of DUST or JDST until August and then out of baby bull monster ride up! I hope 2017 rings that loud golden bell for you.

  87. Kruzoe

    Looks like I left some good money on the table yesterday. Will buy back Dust before eod if gold cooperates. We could be down big come Monday.

  88. Steffmeister

    There are several highly skilled analysts out there predicting a summer low, me included haha :

    The BULL now scenario, less likely due to missing inflation (betting 18% of my portfolio):
    https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/614817#comment-614817

    The BEAR or SUMMER LOW scenario, I think there is a curveball hidden in this scenario (betting 82% of my portfolio):
    https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/614514#comment-614514

    Nope no leverage at this time …

    This projection is nice to have in your toolbox for predicting the future:
    https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/614249#comment-614249

  89. bluelagoon

    Gary – I hope you are right on 6 more weeks of downside for miners as I believe you still have some room to make up from that original $34 DUST trade.

    Perhaps oil will turn back up now too to get your ERX back to breakeven. I do expect some whipsawing before and maybe after the Fed announcement next week. Oil still looks weak to me though and that we are just seeing a corrective bounce.

  90. Goild

    Good morning,

    If you are looking for some lunch money today, consider that today might be a repeat from yesterday.
    A boring channel is taking place like yesterday and it can breakout again around 2:00 PM . It is not unusual for Friday to repeat Thursday,

    Good trading to all.

  91. bluelagoon

    SOXS seems to be hitting at least a local bottom. Huge move in GUSH and ERX today while UWT was weaker -hmmmm – what does that mean? Gold seems to be in a narrow channel still. TNA also coming down -see if it goes sideways for a while – if yes – expecting more downside. Looking to buy TQQQ at a bargain price end of the month.

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