1. Alexandru Popovici

    1) I think there is a larger probability (but untradeable now) that crude oil + Natgas to continue their declines to stretch CRB’s DC for many, many days ahead –> a swing high in stocks on Monday may set SM’s YC decline to take Energy market w/ it.

    2) why EUR’s DC did not retreat enough ? how much should it have retreated?! It had a fib-38 and a fib-retracement should suffice.

  2. Alexandru Popovici

    Bluelagoon, check out “minor trend” on the net please – related to Dow Th.

    1. bluelagoon

      Thanks Alex. I’ve been looking for more info. on trends but your suggestion to on Dow Theory was great in identifying new education. Found some great reading material.

    1. Gary Post author

      The Fed is going to raise rates in June.

      They follow the market. They don’t lead the market, and the market is calling for a 93% probability that they raise.

  3. zkotpen


    I wrote that gold still had more upside in its daily cycle.

    Have a nice weekend!

  4. Gary Post author

    Folks, pay attention to what the miners are saying. They’re screaming that a bottom in the dollar is close.

    In fact the entire metal sector is flashing warning signs. The entire sector should be making higher highs as the dollar makes lower lows.

  5. primetime

    Let’s hope someone at least gets the fed call right. That would be a good foundation to build upon.

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s easy to get the FED call. If the futures are pricing in at least a 75% probability then there will be a hike. As of today it’s at 93%.

      They’ve made such a big deal about raising rates this year there’s no way they can’t follow through with out causing all kinds of panic. So the market will continue to be supported and the rates hikes will come as planned.

      1. Robert

        You have been saying bottom in dollar for weeks now lol. But I still believe miners will correct eventually. Its just taking much much longer than anticipated

        1. Gary Post author

          This is why I almost never trade currencies. The cycles have become so erratic and stretched that it’s very difficult to call bottoms anymore. That is bleeding over into the metals as well because gold usually trades inversely to the dollar. Several years ago I could almost always call bottoms perfectly. Nowadays with the erratic cycles it has become very difficult. Instead of perfection now I have to settle for “close enough”.

        2. djrtrading

          Miners weak and not following gold higher. Gold not made a new high, not even bounced above 1280, on back of missed jobs numbers. Wouldn’t be surprised to see gold heading back down by the close or before Monday open.

  6. Don

    Gary, why are you taking the chance on trying to call currency moves when you have said that you are not very good at predicting their fluctuations? In fact, none of us are. They don’t follow cycles or fundamentals very well . All you are doing is hurting your credibility by attempting to do so because the probabilities of being wrong are at least 50%.

    1. Gary Post author

      LOL nonsense. My currency calls have been spot on, they just take a long time to develop. For you day trading monkeys they won’t work because you are constantly trying to chase every wiggle.

      For people with a bit longer time horizon you can make a ton of money.

      Right now the euro is due to put in a top and the dollar a bottom. You can trade off this call as well although don’t expect me to get a perfect entry. The cycles are just too erratic for that. But within two or three months you will make a nice lump of cash if you are willing to go long the dollar in this zone. I would at least wait for a swing before you start buying and maybe average in over several days in case the first swing doesn’t turn out to be the bottom.

      I may even take a currency trade in the model portfolios at some point in the near future.

      1. Don

        Spot on?? Your call for the dollar to decline took several months tp materialize and still hasn’t slid down to where you started for a dollar fall back in August of 2016. The DXY was at 94.50 (or so) at the time. That my friend, is not being “spot on” and nether is predicting the same thing until it finally happens, months or years later, being “spot on”.

        1. Gary Post author

          And now you see why I rarely ever trade currencies. Who could have guessed we would get a 55 week intermediate cycle?

          But ultimately the dollar did exactly what I said it would do.

          Oil will as well. At some point the weekly stochastics will get overbought and those buying long positions will make some nice cash.

          1. Don

            “Ultimately, the dollar did exactly what I said it would do”. Really? Exactly? You start calling for the dollar to fall when it was at 95.50 (August 2016), it then does EXACTLY the opposite and goes up for the next seven months and peaks out at 102.27 in March of 2017. It’s still above where you first called back in August 2016! How you can possibly claim that call as a win for you?

  7. ARends

    Looking for a Investment trading system or platform company to trade with in the UK, I found that IG create spikes on their prices chart that’s not present on another platform in many of their instruments(its crazy how corrupt these firms are, use some spread betting that they so crafty with doubling spreads as you enter trade, geeeee up to a 1000%. I used III investment and they do not offer stoploss for US markets and charge hefty USD conversions with no USD account.

    Just can’t win, Any advice

    1. djrtrading


      That’s because UK brokers maybe be limited to only one market maker. Spreads typically blowout during volatile periods and also depend on what stocks/ETFs you trade. I trade the UK equivalents/London listed and not the US versions because of the terrible foreign dealer charges using a UK platform. I use Hargreaves Lansdown for dealing and IG for the occasional spread bet.

  8. Alexandru Popovici

    Welcome, Bluelagoon!
    There is much to read. Dow Th is the beginning only.
    Check the net for best trading books and you will find at least something useful in each of them.

  9. desertsun999

    Gary, as I stated yesterday, I think there is an outside chance that the dollar has topped for the month. When things start to break down everything that once was no longer applies. Yes sentiment is not good on the dollar right now but there is nothing saying it cannot stay that way for a while longer. The markets love to get people chasing to the upside and this environment has been perfect for that.

  10. JJHarmen

    Gold appears strong as do the miners this morning. Gold is getting further away from it’s date with 1200 as it zeros in on 1300. This must be a case of a stretched cycle getting more stretched than usual and throw in a little manipulation too.

    1. Gary Post author

      Again there is nothing stretched about the gold cycle, it’s right in the middle at day 17. We are simply waiting for the dollar to find its ICL bottom.

      You guys never change. It’s always the same thing at every one of these major turns. If I’m a little early you all say I’m wrong. Then a couple of months later we’ve made a nice chunk of money and I tell you “I told you so” again.

      Geez how many times must you guys repeat this same mistake over and over before you finally catch on?

      1. waverider

        Recency bias got us again. Always a timeline issue getting early for bragging rights.

    1. Gary Post author

      It will all depend on how long it takes for the dollar to find it’s bottom.

      1. Gary Post author

        Gold is in a triangle. The move back to the lower trend line will be a long slow grind IMO. From top to bottom I doubt the ICL will shave off much more than 120 points. But it will chew up alot of time doing it and frustrate everyone wanting miners to take of immediately.

  11. primetime

    Eventually, gold will go down and energy will go up. Some just need to keep beating the same drum and one day they will be right.

    And the wise one will say, I told you so.

    1. Gary Post author

      Of course I’ll say I told you so. The majority of you always get it wrong at major turning points.

      The dollar is at or very close to one right now.

      1. primetime

        So far, your energy call has been two months too soon. Not really very accurate. Eventually it will work out?

        1. ras

          That is Gary’s trading style. He can stomach significant draw downs. Similar record in metals last September. Says he made more later. As long as his method works for him and his subscribers are happy, that is all that matters. Crude has not yet found its low.

  12. Alexandru Popovici

    GDX about to break out of a bullish flag in its current daily cycle and move higher.
    The probability of my former scenario, stated in Gary’s prior post, increases.

    1. ras

      Immediate trend is up. How long? How high? No idea. Cycle folks tell us dollar is probing for a bottom. Until aem, nem, fnv, gold, rgld turn tail, the trend is up. Cycles and sentiment will take care of themselves.

  13. primetime

    How is Christian’s DUST play working out? He is sitting there with his tail between his legs whimpering. He was full of advice (BS) yesterday.

    1. Christian

      I’m not whimpering at all dumbass πŸ™‚ I’m still in the green and will stick to my plan for the time being, so calm the F*ck down! Lol

      1. primetime

        I appreciate the update, said in such an eloquent way. For a change, why don’t you shut off YOUR computer screen and get a hobby this weekend. Relax, OK! HA HA

        1. Christian

          So let me get this straight Caveman.. You’re calling my advice ‘BS’ and somehow I should (in return) be eloquent? Are you seriously that delusional?! Lol! Wow.

          Enjoy your Big Mac.

          1. primetime


            I was wrong…I thought you were a tiger, but come to find out your just a little pussy cat!

    2. cazabrujas

      This is a just a knee-jerk reaction to the jobs report, a wrinkle in this short-term trend. once the buzz is behind us, and people notice that odds of a fed hike rate stay about the same, the path to the ICL will resume.

  14. desertsun999

    Here is something else to ponder for silver investors. The 5yr downtrend line was broken about a year ago at the $16.00 level. How realistic is it to think that we are going to get much better prices than that? When the MFI hit 40yr lows and silver came within pennies of $16.00 that might turn out to be a gift in hindsight.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’ve been saying for a year and a half that gold completed it’s bear market. We just need to wait for the dollar to bounce out of it’s ICL. That will push gold down into it’s ICL and give us the next great buying opportunity for the rest of the bull market.

  15. Gary Post author

    If there wasn’t something wrong miners would be above the February high right now and gold would be above the April high.

    Maybe gold manages to marginally break the April high next week. It will depend on how much longer the dollar cycle stretches. But miners have almost no chance of breaking the February highs.

    1. JJHarmen

      “break the April high” What??? Is this how you cover all possibilities so you can claim you were right, no matter what happens? Jesus, man, let’s keep it real.

      1. Gary Post author

        Nothing has changed. The dollar still has a date wirh an intermediate rally and gold has to complete at least one failed daily cycle before the ICL is finished.

  16. Don

    As a refresher, Gary, you might want to listen to yourself, back in August/16, talking extensively about how the dollar was going to fail and head south ( the DXY was at 95.50, not 94.50 as I said in a previous post). I think you should stick with what you do best and leave currencies alone but , of course, that is your choice. http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2016/08

    1. desertsun999

      Don, I have seen in the past that you invest in silver. If you don’t mind me asking, are you sitting on the sidelines right now?

      1. Don

        Not on the side lines. I have been plenty of gold juniors that I believe will produce a higher percentage gain than silver at this time. I currently hold 2000 share of a Canadian ETF (ZJG) as well as a collection of gold mining penny stocks. All my recent buys of ZJG have been posted here.

  17. gpmaddock

    Silver has penetrated the 50 and 200 day moving averages today. Let’s see if JPM and the other commercials push silver back by the end of the day.

  18. desertsun999

    Gary, this is going to be a extremely tough call. A good case can be made for either direction.

  19. Bigdaddy

    I have been watching this bullshit move in the QQQ and it just keeps getting more ridiculous. I am not going to short until the time is right. I will let you guys know when.

    1. Gary Post author

      Instead of continuing to short a bubble phase why don’t you just get long until the Nasdaq tags 10,000?

      1. GMoney

        Gary: I agree it is going higher, but 10,000 Nasdaq would be like a 4 standard deviation move and this would be unprecedented.

    2. GMoney

      I agree with you to some extent. The thing is this: in these types of bubble markets valuations don’t mean anything. After living thru the 2000 and 2008 bubbles I can tell you that this is how markets work in an era where central banks print like crazy. The nasdaq is something like 2 standard deviations above its long term trend line. This is bubble territory, but it can continue for several months, I took a position in SPY and QQQ recently. Why not make some money from these irrational markets? However, when this thing turns it will be violent and brutal.

  20. JJHarmen

    XLE is down more than it was up yesterday. Does that mean Gary is stopped out of all his energy holdings? I think that is what he was advising everyone to do yesterday.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m just holding energy stocks until the weekly stochastics get overbought.

  21. jake

    Next stop for the dollar 95.30 area by the end of next month. EURs been in accumulation for two years, it will break resistance.
    25 basis points in FFs just makes Granny think she’s earned her pay for being proactive.

    1. Don

      dboz : In your experience, how often does a line drawn on a chart produce a point that proves to actually mean something?

      1. dboz

        They only work until they don’t. It just gives a point of reference for possible turns.

        For instance I bought GUSH this AM off the bottom trend line bounce and that worked out pretty good today so far for $1200 on 2000 shares. Quick trade.

  22. zkotpen


    “I may even take a currency trade in the model portfolios at some point in the near future.”

    Which currency pair(s) do you plan to trade?

    How much leverage will you use?


  23. Don

    Trump must be the best thing that ever happened to corporate America. Since his election, the S&P is up nearly 17% and the Nasdaq nearly 25% in just six months. Have the markets ever gone up that much post election in such a short time?

  24. Don

    Just for the record, he doesn’t seem to me as being particularity bright but I guess that doesn’t matter to Americans or he wouldn’t be their commander in chief.

    1. Megan 2005

      Don , Your comment on Trump not being very bright! He is not the one on a “FREE BLOG” trying to make a few dollars every day.

  25. GMoney

    Here is an interesting paragraph from an article I recently read:

    “With respect to market-based securities, at least, Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo & Company (GMO) researched 40 bubbles and discovered that prices surpassed two standard deviations on each occasion. More telling, asset prices reverted back to long-term averages in every circumstance. Based on their research, the money management firm defined a bubble as a “two standard deviation” occurrence.”

  26. desertsun999

    This is just a partial article from Jason Hamilton on silver;

    At any rate, silver is set up for a big short squeeze. So far the shorts have been very lucky, they’ve been able to buy to cover without silver rallying too much. That’s largely because other speculators have not yet returned on the long side. But once gold rallies consistently and materially for a few trading days, they will come flooding back in to play the upside. Then the shorts will frantically cover to get out of harm’s way.

    In the first quarter of 2017 before April’s strangeness, specs’ silver-futures shorts averaged just 32.0k contracts. Based on the latest CoT available, that means traders would have to buy to cover another 26.3k contracts to mean revert back down to normal short levels. That’s nearly twice as much as the short covering already seen last CoT week. In other words, 2/3rds of the total short covering is still coming!

    That is mandatory near-term buying. These traders effectively borrowed silver futures they didn’t own to sell them, and they are legally obligated to soon buy them back to repay those debts. This has real potential to drive silver sharply higher in the coming weeks, especially if spec longs are also rising greatly ramping the pressure on shorts to cover fast. The most-likely catalyst to ignite this would be a gold surge.

    As discussed in depth in our recent newsletters, today’s situation in gold futures is actually much more bullish than even silver futures’ current one! On the gold side, longs are very low. That means they have vast room to buy back in and propel gold sharply higher. Big gold-futures buying could be triggered by anything that implies lower future Fed-rate-hike odds, including weak economic data or the FOMC itself.

    Despite gold thriving in past Fed-rate-hike cycles, futures speculators remain irrationallyterrified of higher rates. The day before the last Fed rate hike in mid-March, both gold and silver had slumped to major interim lows. The FOMC indeed hiked as expected, but gold and silver still soared that afternoon and over the subsequent weeks! Why? The FOMC’s outlook on future rate hikes wasn’t as hawkish as expected.

    So even if the Fed hikes again in mid-June as universally forecast, that could yet again prove a very bullish catalyst for speculators to flood back into gold and silver futures. If the FOMC members’ famous dot plot, their predictions for future federal-funds-rate levels, moderates, gold and silver will likely again be bid sharply higher. That’s a huge risk for the silver shorts, who weren’t willing to make that gamble in mid-March.

    The day before that last Fed rate hike, spec shorts slumped to just 29.3k contracts. Even without short covering, silver still surged 2.7% higher on rate-hike day due to long buying. I doubt today’s speculators heavily short silver will want to take the risk that the FOMC’s FFR projections due at its mid-June meeting won’t be hawkish. So odds are the short covering and potential short squeeze will come before June 14th.

    There is nothing more bullish for silver in the near term than excessive silver-futures shorts. These are guaranteed near-future buying! And staying short heading into a likely rate hike after silver has surged after recent Fed rate hikes is like playing Russian roulette. So the pressure on these guys to cover soon is big and growing. Their short covering will likely push silver high enough to entice longs to return en masse too.

    Don’t underestimate the silver upside when shorts are covering and longs are buying! Silver hit a major 6.4-year secular low in December 2015 two days before the Fed’s first rate hike in 9.5 years. Then over the next 7.6 months, silver rocketed 50.2% higher! That was driven by speculators buying like crazy, adding 55.6k silver-futures long contracts while covering 30.0k short ones. Similar short covering is likely soon.

    Again to mean revert back to Q1’17 levels, speculators still need to buy to cover another 26.3k short contracts. That could happen any day with the next major FOMC meeting looming, one of the every-other ones that includes future rate projections. So investors and speculators alike should position for some silver upside, potentially big, in the coming weeks. The stars are aligning for silver buying returning in a major way.

    This imminent short covering can be played with silver itself, or its leading SLV iShares Silver Trust silver ETF. But the best gains by far will be won in the great silver miners with superior fundamentals. Their profits and thus stock prices really leverage silver’s upside. And as I discussed in depth just last week, their Q1’17 fundamentals remain strongdespite the bearish prevailing sentiment weighing on stock prices.

    At Zeal we’ve literally spent tens of thousands of hours researching individual silver stocks and markets, so we can better decide what to trade and when. As of the end of Q1, this has resulted in 928 stock trades recommended in real-time to our newsletter subscribers since 2001. Fighting the crowd to buy low and sell high is very profitable, as all these trades averaged stellar annualized realized gains of +22.0%!

    The key to this success is staying informed and being contrarian. That means diligently studying and buying great silver stocks before they grow popular again, when they’re still cheap. An easy way to keep abreast is through our acclaimed weeklyand monthlynewsletters. They draw on our vast experience, knowledge, wisdom, and ongoing research to explain what’s going on in the markets, why, and how to trade them with specific stocks. For just $10 per issue, you can learn to think, trade, and thrive like a contrarian. Subscribe today and get deployed in great silver stocks before they surge far higher!

    The bottom line is silver is set up for an imminent potential short squeeze. A likely forced liquidation of a huge long position enticed speculators to flood into silver-futures shorts between mid-April and mid-May. That fueled a massive shorting spike, leaving shorts exceptionally high despite some covering buying since. These remaining shorts must soon be covered by buying offsetting longs, driving silver sharply higher.

    Given the extreme leverage inherent in silver-futures trading, these speculators can’t mess around with the next FOMC meeting looming. Silver has surged sharply after all three previous Fed rate hikes in this latest cycle! So major buying to cover is actually highly likely before mid-June’s universally-expected next rate hike. This short covering will probably entice in long buying, amplifying silver’s near-term upside.


    Jun 02, 2017
    Adam Hamilton, CPA

    1. Dday

      Lots of “…blah, blah, blah(to quote zkotpen) …” but not much substance, does the full article contain any hint of technical analysis

      1. desertsun999

        Dday, I just posted it because it was another view of how the market will perceive the next Fed rate hike…………nothing more……………nothing less.
        P.S. If your actually looking for someone on this board that has good TA skills, well, all I can say is good luck with that.

        1. Gary Post author

          If one could make money by tracking the same technicals that every other trader in the world watches then every Tom, Dick, and Harry would be a millionaire. πŸ™‚

    2. Gary Post author

      I would argue that we always see these kind of articles calling for a moon shot any day during the early stage of an ICL. At the final bottom no one is looking for any upside potential and these kind of articles are nowhere to be seen.

      At a bottom the only one looking for higher prices will be me and a very few true contrarains out there.

      1. desertsun999

        Gary, something that I have been wondering about regarding a turning point on the pm market. I am completely on the same page with you in regards to whether we are in a bull or bear market in the PM’s however I don’t quite understand why you think we are going to get the same type of sentiment washout that we had in Dec. of 2015. I actually view the recent COT levels in Dec. of 2015 and May of 2016 as being somewhat bullish.

        1. Gary Post author

          I’ve gone over it multiple times. Gold has to have at least one failed daily cycle. Even during the baby bull the May ICL completed a failed daily cycle. That hasn’t happened yet.

          And the biggie: The dollar hasn’t started its rally out of the ICL yet. It’s foolish to think gold will just continue to chug higher once the dollar generates the next intermediate rally. At best gold can sometimes trade sideways during a strong dollar rally. This time I think it will trigger the move down into the ICL.

          So many people here assuming gold will just keep going up without ever even considering what could happen once the dollar rallies.

          1. dboz

            The dollar could just keep dropping for a long time, just like GOLD slid for 3 months the end of 2016.

          2. Gary Post author

            The dollar has been dropping for 5 months. That’s an awfully long intermediate decline. There will be a counter trend rally soon. If I’m right about the dollar starting a bear market then the rally will be a bear market rally and not make new highs.

  27. Don

    Microsoft is up 2%, Amazon and Apple over !%. The pattern of the big five out performing the market has been re-established.

  28. Don

    Despite a falling dollar, commodities, with the exception of the PMs, have been taking a beating while the stock market soars. Shipping companies are going broke because of lack of demand for their service of move goods. The stock market soars anyway. These are strange times unlike anything I have ever seen in many years of trading.

    1. dboz

      Just remember, the unemployment hits lowest right before a recession. We are now at 2007 lows. There is no wage inflation, also a bad sign as that means labor demand is weak. The work force continues to shrink as the percentage drops. Less workers and more non-workers is not a good recipe for growth. I agree, strange times as people just don’t think the markets or the economy will be allowed to drop. Top all that with all time lows in the VIX and we are on the verge of something. May not be soon, but it’s coming.

      We will see if gold can have a close above the down trend and follow it up with a daily candle close above to confirm. Until then, I am still going to wait. I have to admit, I really have FOMO right now but trying to be a little more disciplined. Not something I had prior to all of the help from Gary. Also remaining patient.

      Miners are up and down, up and down. It looks like they are strong, but they are spinning their wheels as the metals keep progressing higher. I have no idea which way they will go so I am fine sitting on the sidelines. The miners are high risk and I have learned the hard way, when they drop, they drop fast and hard. Better to wait for a confirmed trend and not try to catch the bottom or falling knife.

    1. Gary Post author

      It was the same during the tech bubble. Bubbles aren’t supposed to be rational, hence the name bubble>

      They are about central banks keeping interest rates too low too long and printing too much money. It has to land on something.

  29. Ed

    Miners are falling a way behind gold price today. That is very disconcerting. But if you understand the war these Ponzi scheme Central Bankers are playing, they have to suppress miners price at all costs especially the day like today. This is best tactic to demoralize investors investing miners. Dislocating the relationship between gold price and miners share price. But intermediate time frame, miners share prices will catch up in double time.
    Not many people are mentioning but today is look like turning point. 10 yr bond price went up but that is a bad news corsage haven investors looking money to park. Gold is becoming a very attractive to option when 10 yr bond yields going negative after inflation. BOJ and ECB are about to taper their QE which means weaKer dollar. Fed rate hike is already priced in so it won’t work against gold either way. I was counting on gold price going up big after rate hike. So today’s gift. MINERS WILL CATCH UP IN DUE TIME.

    1. Gary Post author

      Miners are warning that the metals are about to drop into a correction. This same warning was in effect at the April top. I tried to warn everyone then too. Almost no one listened to me. Why? Because our emotions are stronger than logic.

  30. m0ntana

    Silver refuses to budge, what are the odds it just defy this time? Its very cheap historically speaking.

  31. Gary Post author

    Folks there is free money to be had in the stock market until the bubble pops and we are nowhere near popping yet.

    I just don’t think there is going to be huge demand for metals until stocks pop and the dollar starts to roll over in earnest.

  32. Christian

    Miners getting slammed AGAIN!

    Lesson#1 — if you can’t control your emotions than you shouldn’t be trading at all.

  33. Ed

    With Trump in defensive, things can get really bad for the dollar real quick. You can’t really time the market.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’d be willing to be that the dollar will bottom within the next 5 trading days. Why? Because the euro is now up against a major resistance zone.

      1. Don

        LOL! Resistance lines get broken more than 50% of the time, read that somewhere and I believe that to be true.

  34. Ed

    There is no demand for GOLD? Gary are you really kidding? Gold is money. Who do you think the buyers ? Central bankers.

    1. Gary Post author

      I said with stocks in their bubble phase there isn’t going to be a huge demand for alternative investments like gold. I think gold has bottomed, but I don’t think it’s ready to take off and soar yet.

  35. JJHarmen

    With the exception of Don, it appears that everyone here, including Gary, is bearish on the miners. I just put and order in for GDX . The chart looks good to me.

  36. Gary Post author

    I find it funny that so many people like the chart of miners but don’t like the stock market.

    Be honest if the gold chart looked like the S&P chart you would be bullish as hell. πŸ™‚

      1. Gary Post author

        I told you it was too early in the daily cycle to expect any serious selling pressure. I also said the dollar was churning around trying to decide if it had bottomed or not. Well it hasn’t yet.

  37. Bigdaddy

    That was stupid. GDX chart looks bad to me. I wouldn’t put 11 thousand into it , that’s for sure. Wasted cash u could put into shorting the stock market,

    1. Gary Post author

      Sure . The time to sell a short position is at the bottom of a daily cycle. That’s not due for another 15-25 days yet.

      These are just logical things that anyone can see but almost no one can act on because emotions prevent them.

      1. Christian

        So true — and frankly most of the goombas {https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goomba} on this forum can’t see past their emotions. Common sense goes right out of the window everytime the Market lets out a smelly fart, Lol!

        People wake up and smell the roses.. not the farts!


        1. desertsun999

          Christian, are you that parrot that sits on Gary’s shoulder when he’s out climbing?……………….Just a little humor at the end of the day…….LOL

  38. desertsun999

    Well, Jason Hamilton was right about the large spec’s. They covered 10,000 silver shorts in this weeks COT report.

      1. Gary Post author

        The one area that actually is amazingly bullish is the stock market. The commercial went net positive last week and yet that’s the area most of you continue to try to call a top in.

      2. desertsun999

        Not from what I’m looking at. The large spec’s had 45000 short contracts last week. This week they have 35000 ???

          1. Gary Post author

            I don’t pay any attention to the specs. The market basically boils down to commercials fighting commercials. Some are long and some are short. When the commercial shorts start to really overwhelm the commercial longs then it’s time to get on the sidelines or get short. When the commercial net short position comes off dramatically it’s time to get long. Right now it’s kind of neutral. So I default back to basic cycle rules. All ICL’s need at least one failed daily cycle. We haven’t had one yet.

            And the dollar is over due for an intermediate degree rally. I think once it starts gold will give us that failed daily cycle and probably test the triangle trend line.

  39. Bill in Tokyo

    Paper trader Bill here.

    Long AAPL today. Still long QQQ and QLD. YTD, QLD is up 29.1% after 4 trades. $100K netted out $30K. Pretty soon I’ll be playing w/the houses money.

    Long GLD and SLV still. Still out of GDX, GDXJ and SIL.

    1. Bill in Tokyo

      This is pre-tax.

      In reality, I won’t be trading GLD nor SLV. I’ll buy physical and hold forever. Plus at this point, QQQ goes up a lot more than GLD. When GDX get’s out of it’s weekly triangle, then GDX will outperform QQQ.

      I have pretty tight stops on QQQ, because I think we’re in a bubble.

      I think Gary’s a great trader, but I think cycles and sentiment don’t work w/machines and QE.

      I use just pure TA.

      1. Bill in Tokyo

        AAPL is up 35%, YTD.

        Forget GDX until it’s out of the weekly triangle, me thinks.

    1. Gary Post author

      There is a full moon every month. Sometimes gold is in an uptrend and the top has occurred right after a full moon. Sometimes gold was in a down trend and the full moon had no effect.

      There has to be a logical reason for something to happen if I’m to believe it. And I can’t see any logical reason for the moon to effect anything other than the tides.

      I see 5 occurrences where the moon either failed to turn gold up or gold was already in an uptrend and the full moon was irrelevant, and 4 that occurred near bottoms. I’m not sure one can design a successful strategy around the moon.

      1. Bill in Tokyo

        I agree w/you Gary on the moons, but it is interesting that sometimes it works.

        However, Gary, you just said something important.

        “There has to be a logical reason for something to happen if I’m to believe it.”

        So tell me, sincerely, what is the logical reason for cycles to work.

        If you say it’s because of human emotions and the herd theory, I’d kinda agree w/that up until about 5 yrs ago, when computers took over. 80-85% of all trades are done by computers. And they now lead the market, not follow. Emotions and herd theory do not apply to machines. They just use logic. Plus there’s the problem that the whole S&P rise is due to QE – it’s artificial and not real – and at some point it has to correct. Do you agree w/everything in just this 1 paragraph?

        If so, back to cycles, tell me how they can work, using your hat of “logical reason for something to happen.”

        If I could get over just this 1 thing, I’d be a sub. But I see no reason yet. It’s kinda like the moon, sometimes it works, and sometimes not.

        Teach me!

        1. Gary Post author

          Cycles are driven by sentiment, but yes you are right the market interventions and QE over the last 8 years have been stretching cycles so they aren’t nearly as accurate as they used to be.

          Once upon a time I could call bottoms with amazing perfection. Now I just try to get “close enough”.

          The larger cycles are still pretty dependable but the smaller daily cycles are being stretched quite often. The currency cycles have been the most effected not surprisingly since we are in a currency war. This has bled over to the gold market since it trades most of the time inversely to the dollar.

          The stock cycles have been pretty dependable but they aren’t allowed to full correct anymore. The government doesn’t want downside momentum to get any kind of grip on the market.

          I thought we might get a real correction during the 7 YCL back in early 2017 but no they stepped in and stopped it about 3 weeks early.

          Ultimately they are going to create another bubble, this time in stocks.

          1. jake

            Lunar cycle could just be aligning with market cycle by coincidence.

            The key to trading with cycles is an understanding of the interplay of cycles within cycles. Almost all trading cycles have a 1⁄2 trading cycle (see following illustration). A 20- day (bar) trading cycle has within it two 10-day (bar) cycles. One 10-day cycle begins as the 20-day cycle begins and bottoms halfway into the 20-day cycle. As the first 10-day cycle ends the second 10-day cycle begins, and it ends as the 20-day cycle bottoms. Therefore, a 20-day trading cycle always begins and ends with a 10-day cycle

          2. Bill in Tokyo

            I appreciate your thoughts and honesty there, Gary.

            I continue to think that you are a great trader because you’ve been working with cycles and sentiment as they underwent this gradual change, but mainly I think you have an excellent read on how price moves.

            On how price moves.

            And you have the kahuna’s to act, decisively.

  40. dboz

    The dollar should bounce at $96.51 either late Tuesday or early Wednesday next week.

      1. dboz

        In looking at this again, it seems to me the STOCHASTIC is not looking right compared to the other moves. It seems we may need to have one more significant drop in the XAU, something around 20 range? That would then be the bottom as we work down along the upper channel. The STOCH needs to be bottomed and we are too high right now compared to the last 2 times. So that fits well with the theory Gary has presented. Another drop that totally kills sentiment back to basement level bullishness. So my launch date of the end of the year should do it. That would give us a complete collapse into Dec. like 2015 and 2016. So that times up with my launch prediction.

  41. jake

    Specs play a important part in the market.

    “I will present the evidence, such as it is, that has been adduced to support this notion. I will go on to show the fallacies in these data and present several studies which show that futures trading has little or no immediate impact on physical prices (and in any case no impact beyond a few hours or days). But these studies are, at best, an exercise in proving a negative, so I will end by elaborating on the relationship between futures trading and the prices of underlying physical commodities to prove that this relationship makes it impossible for futures trading alone, in the absence of physical commodity purchases, to exert any more than a transient influence on physical prices.”


  42. zkotpen


    Which currency pair(s) are you considering trading?

    How much leverage do you plan to use?

      1. zkotpen


        Have a look at my comment, just below πŸ™‚

        Hope it helps & have a nice weekend!


    1. zkotpen

      I am dialed in to USDJPY.

      Still trying to break the annoying habit of constantly grabbing for the GDX.
      Sometimes GDX is the better vehicle; most times, USDJPY is better (better = both higher probability setup and lower risk:reward ratio).

      USDJPY is consistently almost tick for tick in lock step with gold this year — correlation coefficient is -95% as of Friday’s close (near perfect inverse correlation).

      GDX’s correlation is only 63% — correlated, but not strongly so — and it’s been inconsistent all year.

      Silver’s correlation is also both strong and consistent: +96%.

      EURUSD is also strong, +94%, but inconsistent this year — it has only moved into correlated and then strongly correlated this week.

      1. zkotpen

        The other thing about USDJPY is, it trades 24 hrs a day — as long as you’ve got your strategy correct (some proven whipsaw avoidance technique that works for you), you can get an entry while the 6.5hr exchange traders are watching their profits decrease in a market gap.

        Again, the key caveat is, you need to have that strategy in place to counteract the emotional jolt of the whipsaw.

  43. jake

    Dr. Henry G. Jarecki:

    “The speculator is a necessary component of the futures market. He is the natural long who provides liquidity to the commercial hedger who uses the futures market to protect his business by selling some of his anticipated future production short. It’s not, then, that I have anything against speculation. Without speculators, hedgers could sell only to other hedgers, and, as Keynes showed, they would need to encourage the prospective longs to buy by continually lowering the prices at which they are willing to sell. This would make hedging far less economical and would inevitably cause markets to be far more volatile and lead to higher prices for consumers (the increased risk both longs and shorts will take in the speculator-less more volatile market will cause risks, the rest of which will ultimately be passed on to consumers). “

    1. zkotpen

      Liquidity risk is a huge consideration — just watch The Big Short — those guys were spot on with their predictions, but almost lost big time due to liquidity risk. Frankly, that’s why I like GDX over GDXJ.

      And now that I’m taking the Forex pairs more seriously for the past month or so, their liquidity dwarfs that of GDX, gold, silver…

  44. zkotpen

    Given the correlations of gold with GDX and the USDJPY currency pair, sometimes it’s better to trade GDX, other times it’s better to trade USDJPY. I have spent Friday morning market time figuring out which was which. And then went to bed.

    When GDX is (1) STRONGLY CORRELATED with gold AND (2) I’ve got a good read on both, then GDX is the better vehicle, for leverage well in excess of 3x.

    During a strong move, such as April 17 to May 9, GDX might move 17%; NUGT/DUST would move 50%. USDJPY only moves around 6%, but with 50:1 leverage, that’s still 300%, over a 3-week period. USDJPY makes sense for the entire daily cycle decline or rally.

    The only time GDX will give you those returns is when both conditions I’ve stated are true. In that case, you can get the 300% in 1-3 trading days.

    Sometimes, both rules apply at the same time — in those cases, trade both vehicles.

    For instance, Gary correctly predicted the Apr 17 top in gold/miners the week before. By around Apr 17-18, my own work was totally in line with his, by my own independent due diligence. At that time, the best play was long USDJPY with leverage, for either the entire daily cycle rally, or at intraday degree. The daily move turned out to be the right one, but either arrangement would have been profitable. Since the move was impulsive (expanding volatility), then may as well hold on for the duration. If the move is counter-trend (contracting daily volatility), then split it up into the 2 intraday swings in the same direction as the larger daily cycle trend. You may say I’m “trading in hindsight” here, I won’t argue — but I just looked at my archives folder — I didn’t even begin tracking USDJPY until May 22 — I know I was looking at it as early as May 8-10 or so. I wasn’t even looking at that forex pair during the time in question. But I am now.

    Also during that Apr 17 to May 9 time frame, there were a few very high probability setups to short GDX, for 1-3 day wiggles within the intraday cycle, or even day trades… Goild’s lunch money type trades πŸ˜‰

    So there you go, I’ve just come up with a new rule that I can apply.

    Now back to bed!

  45. zkotpen

    PS: Love the discussion on “the” full moon or “a” full moon.

    Each and every full moon, though it occurs within a cycle, is unique, with its own unique attributes. Just like each market cycle. They have shared attributes, and unique attributes.

    The coming full moon at market open time next Friday will be a monster, as Saturn will be conjunct. Then Saturn opposes the Sun on FOMC day the following week.

    Be ready for it!

  46. desertsun999

    DO YOU REALLY WANT TO KNOW WHO HAS MISSED OUT ON THIS CURRENT RALLY IN THE PRECIOUS METALS????????? The answer——Look in the mirror. It is absolutely amazing to me what people talk about on this blog. The correlations, the ratio’s, all the chart TA, the cycles, the moon, etc….etc……………………………… Do you want to know the one thing that hasn’t been discussed since the May lows on gold and silver? The retail investors that are still watching the precious metals do not believe in this uptrend and the rest have either diverted their attention to the stock market or have just simply given up. Which one are you? Does anybody on this blog realize that the small spec’s in silver have less long contracts right now than at the bottom of this May rally? The small spec’s in gold have stayed exactly the same since the beginning of this rally. Does that sound like a PM market that is going to come swooping right back down to let everybody in at prices lower than the May lows? Call me crazy but something seems amiss here. EVEN AFTER THE RALLY WE HAVE HAD IN SILVER OFF OF THE MAY LOWS THE RETAIL COT LEVELS ARE ABOUT EQUAL TO THE DECEMBER 2015 LOWS. Oh, sorry, did I mistakenly hit the cap key there…….LOL

  47. zkotpen



    Precious metals are in a downturn, mate.

    Check ur charts πŸ˜‰

    But hey, if u still see a rally, then… stop bogarting that jay!

    1. desertsun999

      Zkotpen, if you mean prices are going up without anybody participating then I guess we are in a downturn.
      You, my friend, are not about getting market calls correct. You know the old saying, if you cannot dazzle them with brilliance then baffle them with bullshit.

        1. desertsun999

          Gary, here is the conundrum that we find ourselves in. You say we need a failed daily cycle to complete the intermediate cycle low so the market has to go down. Ah, but here is the dilemma. Find me a silver rally where the retail spec’s sold 40% of their contracts from trough to peak. I don’t think your going to find one. So now there are two outliers in the pm’s. The question being which one stand the test of time.

          1. desertsun999

            Just so there is no confusion when I say contracts I am talking about net long positions.

          2. Gary Post author

            Why are the miners not following gold to higher highs?

            The dollar is considerably below the level it was at in April. Why isn’t gold making higher highs?

          3. Gary Post author

            FWIW I don’t pay any attention to the specs or small traders. The market basically boils down to commercial longs battling the commercial shorts.

            When they get a little too lopsided in one direction then it’s usually time for a trend change.

          4. desertsun999

            Without any doubt, when commercial positions become extreme they always win the battle. I just don’t think the market is ready to give you that failed daily cycle yet.

  48. jake

    Gary can you give me a past example or illustrate a failed daily cycle that you want to see?

    1. Gary Post author

      A failed cycle means the market drops below the previous cycle low. Stair stepping down. It’s what miners have been doing since February.

  49. Idontknowwhatimtalkingabout

    Gold to keep surprising through summer, then washout into year end

  50. ras

    Too much focus on 2 sectors: 1. Energy, still in a downtrend, getting close to a low. 2. pms: stocks and the underlying commodities out of sync. Nice moves in labu and tna for folks with a wider focus.

    1. Gary Post author

      Exactly. I keep stressing to subs to focus on the stock portfolio. That’s where the free and easy money is. We just completed a 7 day trade that added over $7,000 to the stock portfolio.

      1. ras

        Well done, Gary. On the COT report for SPX futures dated June 2, 2017, I saw the following numbers for commercials: Long 50,584, short: 39,605. As per your interpretation, longs being not yet overwhelmingly large compared to shorts, SM could head still higher?

        1. Gary Post author

          Well you need to include the e-minis in there as most of the volume nowadays is in the smaller contracts.

          But still taken together the commercials are…NET LONG.

          That doesn’t happen very often and it’s almost always bullish.

  51. Gary Post author

    There’s still way too many people calling the bottom in gold. At the true ICL the only one that should be calling a bottom is me.

    At the ICL gold should look like energy.

    Notice I’m the only one bullish on energy right now.

    1. ras

      BPENER is in an area where intermediate bottoms occur. But the trend is still down. After a drubbing like this, there will be a bit of backing and filling before we get a sustained rise. Greg Schnell’s blog at stock charts has also noticed this. I am still expecting a final gap down flush in crude before it steadies itself. Time will tell.

    2. Don

      Smugness is not your best suit Gary. Yes, you are the only one bullish on energy and the only one losing on energy….how many times now….is it three or four times stopped out? And, what ‘bottom’ in gold are you talking about? Last I looked, gold was a long ways from any kind of a bottom'( 17 days ago) and appears to be closing in on $1300.

    1. ras

      labu and tna short term overbought. May need pull back before another trade can happen. Time will tell.

  52. chrisG

    Omg. I have been lurking around. But now I really have to restart my insults when I just saw the stupidest comment. Is this Desertsun clown. Has the sun burned his brains??? Lol. He’s insulting us here saying SM not in uptrend, Miners are very in uptrend.

    This ought to be the biggest clown. People would have made huge money last few months in the SM. While Miners are zombified. Ya right , Miners are super good. Maybe if you go back since 1900????!!! Lol.

  53. zkotpen


    I concur — desertsun adds nothing to the discussion, just criticism, to try to divert attention to the fact that he/she is nothing more than copy and paste. Not a single original thought from that critter!

  54. Steffmeister

    Goodmorning, or not so good another terroristattack in London.

    An ultra bearish call for gold, it’s just one scenario of a few others:

    TPTB might throw us a nasty curveball during summer, which means … ? I am not as generous with my conclusions here as Gary, sometimes you must keep your edge against other traders to yourself.

    Talking about geopolitical violence peaks, when SEPTEMBER 2017 arrives … there is a big one coming

    1. Steffmeister

      What happened in 1999 and then again in 2001? The curveball is my secret πŸ˜› look at Silver Wheaton, it’s hidden in there …

  55. zkotpen


    Interesting chart, but hurried. 100 month SMA is primary; 200 is barely in the picture, as you can see. Still 200 is rising and, more importantly, 100 is rising. That needs to flatten out some.

    Do you think a 4-yr impulse move, a, is counterbalanced by a half-year countertrend, b?

    Wave b always seems to take longer than a, not shorter. It takes longer, and goes less distance (except when it goes greater distance πŸ™‚ — but still takes longer)

    How about stretching out wave b 5-6 years, and wave c on par with wave a — about 4 years. Mid- to late 2020’s, mon pote πŸ˜‰

    But I’m pretty much on the same page with your target area: =>=> 700,
    more or less… but these things take time.

    1. Steffmeister

      Yes the wave count looks a little bit weird, I agree.

      mid 2020-late 2020, no that’s false according to the singularity and the humongous fractal in Gold. CB’s will run out of steam long before that.

      700, yes many EW favors that number, but I think it’s going to be much higher than that. A double bottom is a more realistic imo.

  56. Alexandru Popovici

    Evidence crams for Miners up thrusting early next week to a new high to exhaust them [as well as gold and treasuries along w/ it].
    To throw a few:
    – GBPUSD has to move up in a new DC –> factor for USX bearish stance continuance very short-term,
    – USDJPY need to complete its DC in 1-2 days –> another such factor,
    – stock market is short-term overbought –> a short-lived correction is in the books (Transports need to produce a right-translated DC now that they are early in their new IC, and that should allow all SM to move up hrough the next couple of weeks – may a top of SM on FOMC).


    so Zkotpen, Steffmeister & Alexandru: why then should one follow Gary’s advice and load up the truck within a few weeks when the metals/miners should bottom ?!? Only to do one brief trade ? For a longer time investment one then should NOT buy metals/miners, as we still have some 500 usd to go (down, that is) !?

      1. zkotpen

        … NO truckloading. Only daily cycle trading… or SHORTER.

        I am convinced of the rule that I posted regarding miners and USDJPY…

        USDJPY for DAILY cycles (trading Forex 24/5, not the more limited ETFs)

        GDX/leveraged miners for INTRADAY and WIGGLE waves

        I may tweak on the rule a bit. Missing out on Friday’s trade so irritated me, that I worked hard to come up with a strategy to help with decision making going forward. The rule is rigorous — I plan to use it without bending it to suit some or other subjective preference, including my own forecast. If a particular forecast falls apart, I will bail on it and await clarification.

        I had thought about entering a long position in GDX Thursday afternoon, but the market closed on me. That didn’t bother me. The fact that I wasn’t dialed in to USDJPY from 8am on Friday morning, or shifting over to SLV, but somehow mesmerized by a GDX move that simply was not going to materialize after the gap up… that’s what annoyed me. I had viable alternatives clearly in mind, but no strategy in place to deploy them.

        Still, no worries. Friday’s move, though dramatic, was relatively small. More interesting moves are coming, and I plan to hone my strategy in the meantime. Though I’ve been following gold and miners for a few years, USDJPY is very new to me. I’ve only had a Forex account for 2 weeks. The platform is still a bit strange to me.

        Correlations are vital… you can see the ones I’m looking at below the charts, not in my mind, but quantitative. Regarding the GDX vs AUDUSD correlation, as well as gold vs EURUSD — these correlations are generally unreliable, so I do NOT plan on trading either of those currency pairs for the time being, unless I see something palpable line up. But USDJPY vs. gold and GDX vs. gold can be gamed to one’s advantage, I believe, especially the former. The gold chart, though confusing at times, is highly regular, and so far in 2017, USDJPY is almost a perfect negative correlation. (See links below)

        So with prudent strategy, probability assessment, and risk management, profits can be made, if one has a solid strategy in place for decision making. I was clear on probabilities and risk management, but the strategy was lacking, so when it was time to make a move, I was looking at the wrong market. And finally, I don’t see any significant long term play, longer than swing trading daily cycles, until the final big move down in gold sometime in the 2020s.

        To make any of this work, due diligence, therefore, is an absolute must. Probability assessment, risk management, and clear strategy must all be in place, otherwise, it’s just a trip to the blackjack table, at which one is guaranteed to lose big — a statistical certainty!



  58. Alexandru Popovici

    I agree w/ Zkot on gold longer term: during the first part of the new Kondratieff Spring, USD goes up and gold down while in the 2nd part both go up –> I REALLY DO NOT GET ALL THE TALK ARROUND ABOUT DOLLAR GOING BUST! This only makes a very good sentiment gauge to infer that indeed history has to repeat and that this ushering K-Spring MUST delivr a strong greenback bull: cycle theory + bearish sentiment joining hands in forecasting a lasting, SECULAR USD BULL.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      after saying this on the long-term perspective, I consider that:
      – very short-term (as just mentioned above), USX has to go lower with Monday to become day 19 in its DC (again I find nonsense considering USD on day forty-something in its DC! sheer nonsense!!!)
      – a dead-cat bounce through FOMC along with SM to allow Transports to deliver the right-translation in their first DC of a new IC (as normally occurs with the first DC in a new IC: right-translation)
      – resumption of the YC decline of USX by producing another left-translated DC –> YCL of USX (and a gold top) to come later in the summer.

      all this means that there is no room for gold ICL now –> we will have just a DCL in gold/miners as USX & SM go up till FOMC.

  59. desertsun999

    chrisG, I am going to repost what you just posted to help make my point………………………………………………….

    Omg. I have been lurking around. But now I really have to restart my insults when I just saw the stupidest comment. Is this Desertsun clown. Has the sun burned his brains??? Lol. He’s insulting us here saying SM not in uptrend, Miners are very in uptrend.

    This ought to be the biggest clown. People would have made huge money last few months in the SM. While Miners are zombified. Ya right , Miners are super good. Maybe if you go back since 1900????!!! Lol.

    First, Is this Desertsun clown. Did you mean to write, Is this Desertsun a clown? Second, This ought to be the biggest clown. WTF? What are you actually trying to say here? I am assuming that based on the poor writing skills that have demonstrated here is the reason that your reading comprehension skills are very limited.
    Show me a post where I said any of the things that you just mentioned here. Tell me English is your second language and I can somewhat overlook what was just written. If not then I am at a loss for words.

  60. jake

    “You have to master your ego and realize that being profitable is more important than being right” – Marty Schwartz

  61. chrisG

    Tis dessertsun guy is a real retard. I said days ago that money is in SM and not in PM for quite a while. And it’s the truth. He insinuated I lied cos I also have bought PM even though I insulted him. Come on, it’s only half size position. And even with today’s gain, the type of gains is peanuts compared to my SM gains. So what’s there to hurray or brag about. I even have my doubts over my PM position and said I hope they sticks. Telling u how much conviction I have about PM.

    Anyway, I prefer talking to smart people. And been here long enough to know who value adds, who doesn’t. And those smart guys also know I am smart enough to value add. Tis Sun that has the sun burned through his retard brains, nvm. No more patronising such stupidity.

  62. chrisG

    Even though I have silver gold and miners, my analysis is same as Gary. No big money from this sector yet. Still in a big range. I am only channelling some profits from SM to slowly build up a portfolio position in miners.

    I still love the SM. And for those who complains about the narrow breath in SM, I think he should brush up his skills. Not at a dangerous level to cause a bear market. My watchlist of stocks are all looking great.

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