I think we need to focus on what is happening to the dollar. The intermediate cycle is now 63 weeks long. Clearly that isn’t normal. I’ve maintained for several years that the end game was going to play out in the currency markets. There has to be consequences to printing trillions and trillions of currency units , and leaving interest rates at 0 for 8 years. I don’t think the consequences are going to be deflation. I think the end game will be inflation, just like it was in the 70’s, and just like it was in 2007 and 2008.

It’s taken a while to manifest as other countries have jumped into the game and turned on their printing presses as well, so the collapse in the currency I’ve been looking for has taken quite a while to unfold. The first leg down ended in 2008.

The dollar rally out of the 2014 3 YCL has fooled everyone into thinking the dollar is strong and the euro is going to collapse. So everyone is now on the wrong side of the market. That’s pretty much how every bear market starts with everyone on the wrong side of the boat.

In 2000 everyone thought tech stocks would continue to rise to the moon.

In 2006 everyone was convinced that we were running out of available land, and that real estate prices would continue to rise indefinitely.

In 2008 it was peak oil and calls for $250.

Now in 2017 it’s the notion that the dollar is the prettiest pig in the pen. I’m going to go on record and say the dollar is not the prettiest pig. On the contrary I think the currency crisis I’ve been expecting is going to manifest first in the dollar. And as it does we are going to experience an inflationary shock. First in stocks, and maybe real estate, and later in the commodity markets.

When the dollar failed to rally and instead sliced right through the 38% Fib this week that was a warning bell that something is wrong. The theory now is that the 200 week moving average will turn price back up. But I’m starting to wonder if it will. During the last two bear markets the 200 offered no support at all, and price sliced through those levels like a hot knife through butter.

Ever since the world embarked on this crazy QE experiment we’ve seen markets do things they’ve never done before. Trends last much longer than normal. Cycle rhythms have evolved and stretched in many cases to two or three times normal, and sentiment has to reach much deeper or higher extremes before trends reverse.

Take a look at the bear moves in the yen and euro as a perfect example. The bear moves occurred as almost a straight line down. Virtually no bear market rallies. I wonder if the same thing is happening to the dollar.

Next week is going to be important. The FOMC meeting, and the 200 WMA are the last support zone, and last potential event trigger to stop the collapse in the dollar. If these fail then I’d say it’s Katie bar the door time. The dollar is going into the abyss.

From the minute QE 1 began this was inevitable, but it has taken a long time to play out, with a very convincing bull market in the middle to get everyone on the wrong side of the fence and make traders believe that “this time is different”. It’s never different. It wasn’t different in the 70’s when we printed too much money to pay for the Vietnam war. It wasn’t different in 2007 & 2008 when the Fed kept interest rates too low, too long to pull us out of the tech bubble crash, and I maintain it’s not going to be different this time either. There is going to be a penalty for keeping rates at 0 for 8 years and printing trillions of dollars.

Folks there is no free lunch. We’ve had one heck of a party since 2009. If you think there isn’t going to be a hang over at some point, and a price to pay, I’d say you are going to be sadly mistaken.

I’m going to cover how I think this will affect the stock market, commodities, and gold going forward in the weekend report.

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  1. mustang sally

    Good morning to Everyone , including you Ped my alter ego.

    Well my dust marker at 29.30 is in a real battle, as I said before I also watch the canadian version of dust hgd,to. and the diversion between the two continues, which one is lying about the next move. My gut says hgd is telling the truth and we are going for a ride down in the miner. Those interested my marker for gld is 117.74, anything below gold is in trouble.

    Mustang Sally

    1. Bigdaddy

      Could that “diversion” (divergence?) between HGD and DUST be due to the fact the DUST is triple leveraged inverse ETF while HGD is just a double leveraged inverse ETF? What role might the strength of the CAN dollar play in the divergence?

      1. mustang sally

        Howdy Biggy:

        Well dust is triple and hgd is double so one would figure it will go down more, but hgd is in a risiing channel and dust is just starting, so I would say dust is lagging when it should be leading.


  2. mrtommifunn

    Nice write up thank – you. The yearly cycle is crazily stretched and the daily’s crazily short. Though with any cycle, rules still have to be applied and the top trend line has to be broken in order to form the next. I agree the dollar is going to fall massively but currently the dollar still needs to rise (at this point in time ) above 97 (as time goes by this gets lower). In terms of timing this will tie in with gold reaching 1260 before turning back down to touch 1180 before resuming a large bull ride.
    Once the 97 is broke on the dollar i think it could then crash through the 200MA.
    Happy trading all

        1. ocram

          what do you think about this ratio?
          when gold and miners will tops according to you?
          If I can remember correctly you was convinced that the tops for gold and miners could have been around 2020.
          Do you still think like that?

  3. Christian

    Not sure I agree with the whole ”Dollar going down indefinitely scenario”. We will most definitely get a counter trend rally of some sort and I think it’s gonna happen right around the time the Euro tags its 200WMA @1.18

    Also — The 38% and 50% Fib is not sacrosanct ๐Ÿ™‚ In all the years I’ve been trading, I’ve seen more than my fair share of stocks and currencies bust through the 38%Fib like a hot knife through butter only to reverse and pull a fast one.

    That’s what Markets do folks.. behave irrationally so as to confuse the shit out of everyone! Yep, Gary included.

    1. mustang sally

      howdy chris
      I could not agree with you more, the canuck dollar is the one to watch for a fakeout, right now it is levitated. I have a marker for 76.73 any thing below it will run to around 70. For hints look at the peak of 2008, what happened then, hmmm. The canuck may go a little higher, but

      Riden the wave down

      Mustang Sally

    2. jake

      Sure looks like it’s the Euro to 120 or bust.
      Isn’t it interplay between the two currencies that give them perceived value.

  4. earthkitten

    Oil is going much lower. I’ll bet you a taco it does.

  5. victor

    came back from cottage, pleasantly surprised with Ng and oil drop. Sold all Ng on Thursday morning with a good profit. Will re- purchase Ng at first opportunity and oil at 44.
    You right earthkitten, it will go lower and I will short it with all I have after 51+

  6. Schinkenbaron

    Hello there, I’m following discussions here for quite a while now cause I more often than not like the input and ideas people share. No I decided to register to share my views from time to time.

    As I mostly trade based on charts I want to post a monthly and a weekly chart on the dollar.

    Considering those I wouldn’t be surprised if the dollar will go down to the 61,8 fibonacci level you can see in my charts. Around there would also be a conversion of the long term falling trendline (dashed) and the intermediate ascending trendline. Around the 61,8 fiboniacci level is also some horizontal support and I guess if price goes down this far, sentiment will also be bearish enough to lure in enough people into going short or making people sell their stocks too cheap to give banksters a good opportunity to milk them again when the market is ready to go in the other direction again.

    Just my thought on that and I’m curious what you guys think about my assessment.

  7. mustang sally

    Howdy Baron: As you have asked here is my take, if you read the posts you know my take on charting, Before you do any trading based on charts, draw as many lines on the charts as you can that connect a minimum of 6 peaks or valleys. You will find millions, and take them and make channels , yep more millions. All of the these lines and channels are relevent at some point in time, the key is when. In the world of charting you will hear the word morphing, realy it means they screwed up in the analysis. A chart is a magic show, the obvious lines are there to distract your eyes, the relevent lines are ones that are hidden.
    Everyone hits the right channel once in a while, just like the slot machines, Caution is the last word I will give you when putting your money based on a chart.

    Enter Garys on line bingo contest and see your lines work.

    Zig Zag Sally

    1. mustang sally

      Mr, Baron.. Lets take abx, I have 13.26 as a marker which if it fails abx is in trouble just like the rest of the commodity market, It marks the top of a channel one of the many that you can draw on abx. Charting is a visual art, if you are not creative your brain won; t let you see the magic,

      My top marker is 16.70 which corresponds with my dust 29.30 marker. If it breaks above and stays , bets are off and the metals go up .


      1. Schinkenbaron

        Thx for your reply MS. Your right with what you said about charting. But it’s all about improving possibilities in trading. That’s why I wouldn’t consider buying abx now, cause obviously it’s in a triangle for now and no buy or sell until there’s a breakout to one side or the other. My buying point for abx would have been in February 2016 where it broke out of a long term downtrend.

        I know that’s hindsight, but there are stocks that fit my criteria again and again. That’s why I bought hygs a few weeks ago.

        As you can see volume was decent too when the breakout occurred. It’s pulling back now, so right now I’d consider it a buy again, if there are signs of the bulls come back. If not my stop is already at breakeven.

        1. Gary Post author

          Let’s say that the Sunday report offers a different perspective that one may not have considered and you decide to alter your game plan a bit, ultimately saving yourself several thousand dollars in drawdown or in profits.

          In that scenario would it be worth spending $50 to access that report?

          1. Christian

            Sorry Gary — was just being a cheeky bastard ๐Ÿ™‚ Your perspective is worth more than the $50 you charge, hands down.

  8. mustang sally

    Good Sunday Everybody

    Before I go to church I thought I would share my longtern date as it is Sunday and it is all about sharing,

    July 23 2018 will be a big turning point, the question for everyone is it the date that the usd tops or bottoms.

    Sally;’s Sunday Quiz

    Riden the range until july 2018

    Mustang Sally

    1. mustang sally

      Come on now folks, back from church and no one entered into the quiz, here is a clue, the marker for the usd is 98.30 and its game over.

      Feeln good after church


  9. victor

    nice to read it MS you have such fiilngs. God bless you with yr trading.
    hmm, 98 marker? hopefully gold below 1200 where I start loading the truck.

    1. victor

      also, I’m sure you and Pedestrian is the same, just stay with a name you like and don’t bother what others saying, just don’t write long essays please

    2. mustang sally

      Sir Victor, I would not be loading up any truck with gold, anything above 98 usd will tell me its jdst bull.


  10. zkotpen

    I am looking at some VERY long term cycles Sunday: Multi-Decade, which is technically driven by the 250 month SMA. If you don’t like this sort of thing, or if you don’t like math, or if you don’t like me, then please just page down & save yourself the grief. ๐Ÿ™‚

    This is the first time I’ve ever looked at the multi-decade cycle. “Multi-Decade” is one intermediary degree above the Decade cycle, which Gary and others call “8 year”. I have specific, mathematical reasons for calling it Decade. As a real world example, Decade lows in EURJPY were 1993, 2000, and 2012 — none of these were 8 years or 10 years apart, but they are all Decade lows, giving clear signals on the 100 month SMA, which I call “decade”. I also have a clear, specific engineering-based, practical reason for choosing the 100 month SMA, which is closer to 8 years than 10, as the technical driver for the Decade cycle.

    Some very interesting things pop out at me:

    1. The 2008 top in EURUSD was a major top of Multi-Decade degree. EURUSD hit Multi-decade, Decade, and Multi-year resistance at the same time. EURUSD then began to decline.

    2. The major currencies I watch, USD, JPY, EUR, are almost sitting right on their respective 250 month SMAs as of Friday’s close. I don’t have a 250 month SMA for gold.

    3. The DXY, for which my multi-decade data begins in 1988 shows volatility as stable, but higher than at present, from 1988 until 2003. Multi-decade volatility began to contract in 2003, stabilizing around 2007. Multi-decade volatility has been relatively low and stable since 2007.

    4. These major currencies generally exhibit contracting volatility in the multi-decade cycles for the different pairs. EURUSD is somewhat stable, multi-decade, but all the others have contracted and are stable at lower multi-decade volatility. This leads me to believe that multi-decade cycles are CORRECTIVE in nature, and that means range bound, with none of them getting too far out of line, collapsing or blasting off, or any such thing, in the foreseeable future. There will be moves — even impulsive moves — from time to time, but the ceilings and the floors are set, for the time being.

    Furthermore, looking specifically at DXY, if its stable multi-decade volatility shrank between 2003 and 2007 and has been relatively stable ever since, and now it’s almost sitting on its 250 month SMA, during a Multi-YEAR consolidation, rangebound between about 91 and 104, then that means Multi-DECADE volatility can only contract even further, so long as the current Multi-YEAR consolidation continues.

    People can get a bit antsy, because the EURUSD and DXY are approaching multi-year extremes (though gold and JPY are closer to their multi-year SMAs), ALL of these currencies are practically sitting on their multi-decade SMAs. If you trade forex, including gold, that’s hugely relevant. And there’s plenty of time to see a change in multi-decade volatility coming: Multi-YEAR resistance for EURUSD is around 118; Multi-DECADE resistance is clustered with Decade resistance, around 160. If the Multi-YEAR starts to go crazy to the upside, then it will make sense to see if Decade and Multi-Decade are likely to be in play or not. So long as that does not happen, more consolidation remains the longer term outlook for the next few years, perhaps even decades.

    In order to get technical context of whatever you’re trading — take a good look at what it’s doing multi-decade — a classic cycle analyst might call that “the 30 year cycle” or “the quarter century cycle” (Gary: What do you call the cycle one degree higher than your 8 year cycle?). Then, within a multi-decade context, what’s going on at the decade cycle? Within that context, what’s going on at multi-year degree? And from there, you can start to make sense of the yearly, intermediate, daily, and sub-daily degree cycles… ๐Ÿ™‚

    So I try to figure what are the ceiling and the floor, and don’t try to fight them. If those barriers break, we’ll cross that bridge when (if) we get there… but it’s not likely to be an instant break, on Monday, especially with everything practically sitting right in the middle of both average price and price range over the past 11 years.

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s gold that has an 8 year cycle, not the dollar.

      The dollar has a 3 year cycle and a 16 year cycle. 8 years up and 8 years down. We’ve had the 8 years up. It should be due for the 8 years down now.

      1. zkotpen

        That will be something to watch for:

        Does long term volatility — I’m looking at ~21 year SMA here — continue to contract, or perhaps it oscillates from contraction into expansion over the next few years?

        The scenario of continued volatility contraction in the major reserve currencies seems to mathematically imply they will all flatline against each other and a single global currency will emerge at or near that prevailing rate.

  11. mustang sally

    Everyone, I must apologize for my error on the quiz contest maybe that is why know one is answering it, it should read, does the Usd top or bottom on July 2019

    This week will be a killer.

    Goodnite everyone,

    Sleepy Sally

  12. roadrunner

    MS…you need to decide what it 2018 or 2019?

    you wrote:
    “July 23 2018 will be a big turning point, the question for everyone is it the date that the usd tops or bottoms.”

    then you wrote:
    ” it should read, does the Usd top or bottom on July 2019″

  13. Ed

    There will be no retail investors ever profit from gold price rise. All those years we waited, we will have nothing to show for in the end. That’s how much bank cartels effectively demoralized last remaining batch of gold bulls to give up all their hope for gold. Like every morning my routine is expecting when gold futures would be dump and how much gold price will go down. 20 30 or 50 dollars. But you never ever see $10 tick up when dollar tanks more than gold price.
    That should never work that way but it does. Dollars tanks. Gold stay flat. And miners stay even more flatter. After awhile you just give up. That’s what I did in 2000 and that will probably what most people including myself will do this time again. Just never ending smash on gold every chance they get will eventually drive every retail investors from gold market.
    You can never explain what is happening gold market with any logic. They just happens randomly irrespective of fundamentals.
    I finally saw something that explains what is happening with this top article in zerohedge today.
    The article make a lots of sense of how PPT works.
    She even says how much time PPT spends creating narratives to drive investors to the positions their desired results. She even mentions about ESF. I am very sure she is downplaying the magnitude of PPT and ESF involvement in the markets but I think she is telling the truth about PPT’s role in creating apporiate narratives for FED to push out in investing public and all government agency data get fixed to support such narratives. Everythings planned and manipulated to get desired results.
    I just hope I have strength and wisdom to be in and out gold market correctly without losing my shirts.
    I have faith in that precious metals are only money that do not depreciate over time. And I hope to live through to see fruition of my faith in gold.

  14. Ed

    What’s deal about cracking passwords for crypto currencies holders using super computers?
    How in the hell currency (including ever so getting popular crypto currency) traders ever compete with those who have these super computers. What is happening in currency market, rise of crypto currency, last a couple of years so fundamentally profound but no one is talking about rise of crypto currency in terms of gold price. Is gold become archaic metal that has no monetary value other than as an industrial metal?

    1. Americano

      Quantum computers can’t hack Bitcoin – its years ahead & if they could – they would obviously.
      Bitcoin changes security & its considered the largest super computer in the world. “They got this” & there is a legion of support for this you find after a google search – or chatting with a cryptographer.
      Gold will always have better value than industrial metal so not to worry.
      Bitcoin doesn’t “start” till next year anyway. It’s like NFL was before Monday Night Football was introduced.
      Bitcoin just acts like gold would if it didn’t have a financial infrastructure that has been around for 50 years to manipulate it.
      Gold will ALWAYS have this manipulation component hence the “battered wife” victimhood when gold bugs speak on the topic.

  15. robbo

    Hi Gary,

    How do you explain the drop in oil along with a drop in the dollar? Is is not usually how this works (thinking back to 2014/2015), a falling dollar should push oil up?

    1. RTTPD

      I’m sure not answering for Gary – but I think many overlook the fact that low oil prices can also be used as a weapon against countries like Russia, Iran and Venezuela.

      It’s not working on Russia though……and before it ever does it’s going to hurt us much more than them.

      What I am saying is – this ties in to what Ed has written in his post above.

      I am actually betting that as soon as Venezuela completely collapses, and Maduro is either killed, exiled, or jailed, and a new friendly-to-the-US puppet is installed — that’s one we’ll see a nice bump in oil.

  16. mustang sally

    Top of the Morning to Everyone:

    Why are all you people puzzled about the possible direction of gold, all you have to do is check how much gold reserves each of the pigs have, and the currency their debt is held in. History never changes they plunder to get the gold, in the old times by war or now by currency, Bitcoin and the others are fabricated to do drive the gold down, the usd will rise when they are good and ready, Tell me what is going to happen when all the pigs have to repay the loans back, Maybe a flood of gold, PIGS bottom.???

    Pig talking Sally

    1. butch

      Look at the technicals. Have a cup of coffee and LOOK. Gold large triangle and a smaller triangle wave D in progress. . We may or may not be in a WXY wave. Expecting 1350-1500 in 2017. I will enter 100% of my bankroll when the lower trend line of either triangle is reached.

      1. mustang sally

        Dear Butch> What if it blows right through your triangle, do you then call it a morphing triangle. just be prepared and do not deny it when it does.

        Pragmatic Sally

  17. Jimsee

    well mustang, disgorgement only likely if a material threat emerges politically or militarily imo…is a country better off now simply defaulting and getting a bailout or losing it’s hard money reserves? The world is in flux. look at Turkey – the EU and NATO should both be dissolved but it is a process. if u default on western debt and then get asian financing with hard assets u WIN.

    1. mustang sally

      Howdy Jims

      Its like the housing market get em full of debt and then squeeze them with and interest increase, it just takes one country to get the ball rolling , they just have not put the squeeze on them yet. but it is coming.


  18. Nada

    Good morning Mustang Sally! Looks like DUST put in a swing low this morning, but first she went after your marker of 29.30 with an undercut. Lets see if the 10ema provides support for the seniors and juniors today, I suspect it will temporarily.

  19. butch

    @ Musting You know you’re not the only cowboy here. I’m a cowboy too. Except this Cowboy don’t ride no little pony. This cowboy rides a BULL.

    1. Christian

      PED is definitely not a cowboy butch. He’s just pretending to be because he has no friends ๐Ÿ™‚

    2. mustang sally

      Cowboy Butch, I am not here to have a verbal match with anyone, are you entered into the online bingo, that will tell if you are a cowboy,

      Mustang Sally

  20. Don

    I have a scary story to tell. This morning I looked at my ITrade account (Canadian) and discovered over 50 thousand dollars was missing ! Some, but not all, of my US ETFs were showing as ZERO dollars value! After some frantic phone calls, I learned that for reasons unknown, there was a glitch and they “hoped” it would be cleared up by TOMMOROW morning! They said that FORTUNATELY, the actual number of shares showing was correct. I am thinking:: Fortunately? Are there no back ups or have they been compromised also?

    It just takes something like this to demonstrate just how vulnerable we are to having our digital wealth altered or even wiped out in the blink of an eye. It makes me very very nervous, to say the least, that in the event of a hacking or other catastrophe, the banks and brokerage firms would just say, “not our problem that you can’t prove your digital wealth, can’t help you without proof.”

    1. Christian

      Shitty Don — I’ve gotten into the habit of taking a screenshot every now and then, just in case.. Having a bit of cash and Gold/Silver coins will help you sleep better at night. Or a Credit Card from a different bank from a different country is also beneficial sometimes if you happen to have dual citizenship.

      Doug Casey talks about this stuff all the time and he’s not wrong. We’re too dependent on the system that’s been put into place in our home country.

      Where in Canada do you live..?

          1. Pedestrian

            LOL. That explains everything Don. At least there are actual horses there. Poor Christian. Only bare back riding in the West End while pretending to have reins on a nag.

        1. Clarence

          Don, I was just in Regina last week. Watched the Riders thrash the Ti-Cats. Great little city !

        2. MagnuM

          It’s hilarious how many Canadians there are here. Are we the only ones left with any money? ๐Ÿ™‚

          1. Don

            I think BD is Canadian also. Maybe there are so many Canadians because we don’t have to worry about healthcare bankrupting us in our senior years. I have relatives in the US and they are always worried some big dollar operation is going to set them back finacially. My understanding is that American insurance companies don’t pay the full amount for surgeries. Correct?

  21. ARends

    Gary, and others thats wise

    I have looked at the XAUGBP and find it amazing that when you look at price action and resistance levels pricing make much more sence in price behaviour. Then JPYGBP correlation is of note. What is the possibility that gold is valued or managed from GBP side with such price behaviour in resistance levels that make much more sense. Just look at the daily and weekly with currency overlay.

    Are there not a possibility that most people are looking it this from the wrong angle to determine behavior with powers at being in PM. The gold holders are possibly manipulators and not USD based outlook over past few years considering the in depth gold holding position studies in the world and the risks relating to dollar over past years. It is also seen that Gold holding of US is fake but that Gold is US not as dominents as people think.

  22. mustang sally

    Hello Nada; Yes I would say the dust marker is hot, this along with my other markers are indicating that gold bulls may feel a bit of pain, but who knows that is why I use may markers.


  23. Bigdaddy

    Holy sheep shit Don! That’s a dammed ugly experience, for sure. Isn’t that ITRADE part of Scotia Bank? How could they be sloppy? I have always felt that this digital banking is a grand experiment that is going to one day bite us all in the ass.
    My dog could run it better.

    1. Don

      Yes, ITRADE is Scotiabank operation and they have had lots of problems with that operation.

  24. Bigdaddy

    I don’t have any good tips this morning other than to buy more silver. It’s going higher after a pull back. I am waiting for Netflix and Facebook to fall. Both are shit stocks and sooner or later they are going to take a dive.

  25. Don

    It is odd how the miners will start out strong and then sell off almost every day. I think Dboz has been gaming the pattern for profit.

    1. Nada

      Good morning Don. They love to gap fill, but yeah they have been very weak for the past two daily cycles in gold. I only short GDX/GDXJ and long/short GLD to match my anticipated move.

  26. JJHarmen

    GDX has been a disappointment. NUGT has wiped out almost all of the last four days of gains. Did Gary get on board with NUGT just in time to catch a top and is he going to hold it like he has held ERX?

    1. Gary Post author

      LOL we exited at the exact top on Friday.

      You need to get a monthly subscription so you can get real time trades.

      We just added another $20,000 to the stock portfolio as well. +105% in the last year and a half.

      1. Steffmeister

        Sold Novo Resources with a 125% gain in less than a month ๐Ÿ˜› it’s at a multiyear top right now so it was time to sell.

          1. Steffmeister

            Tx Don, Just pure luck!

            Bob Moriarty had an article about miners a month ago and he was very positive about Novo Resources so I bought a bunch, not my largest holding, but nice to have some dry powder in the coffin.

  27. JJHarmen

    Good move, but I don’t understand why you engage in short term trading with NUGT but insist on holding ERX as a long term hold. You are always admonishing traders NOT to be trading “squiggles” so what’s the rational for the entirely different trading styles?

    1. Gary Post author

      I realized I was not going to be able to time the wiggles in the energy stocks. All I was going to do was whipsaw the portfolio to pieces.

      Better to just switch strategies and hang on until the weekly stochastics cycle back up to overbought. That way we at least have a good chance to come away with a winning trade even if it takes a while to develop.

      The other way I would just make the brokers rich and probably end up losing a lot of money.

  28. victor

    I’m with iTrade since 2008, and it made me nervous several time when I try to log in in the morning and it said “page is not available” also several times I was in sweat when it shows “0” on my account. I’m seriously thinking to switch to TD Waterhouse, but don’t know if it’s better.

  29. Don

    I think BD is Canadian also. Maybe there are so many Canadians because we donโ€™t have to worry about healthcare bankrupting us in our senior years. I have relatives in the US and they are always worried some big dollar operation is going to set them back finacially. My understanding is that American insurance companies donโ€™t pay the full amount for surgeries. Can any American here confirm that is correct?

    1. roadrunner

      Senior are covered by medicare…and the poorest ones get 100% coverage.
      as for surgeries, there is usually a negotiated rate between the insurance company and the provider. it caps what the DR/Hospital can charge.

  30. Don

    Amazon, Netflix, and Facebook all hit record highs today. The synchronicity is, without a doubt, due to computer trading. They are stuck on pumping the same old stocks, day after day, year after year. I have never seen anything like what we are seeing with today’s algo driven markets. How does one measure the sentiment of a computer?

      1. Nada

        BD not BG – Meaning, Bid Daddy. He is probably out letting his dog shit on someones lawn while the SM takes his money.

        1. Bigdaddy

          Nada, for your information, my dog has been constipated. I took him to the VET and got some pills and the VET said to give him a baseball sized ball of fresh hamburger everyday and to cut down on the dry dog food because it constipates them AND causes stomach cancer. WTF? Do you know how much hamburger costs these days? It’s outrageous! Might as well give him steak. FYI, i almost always pick up after him if he does a number on the neighbors yard.

      2. Gary Post author

        I’m not sure why humans seem compelled to try to pick trend changes, but we are. It seems to be built into our DNA. Consequently riding trends is tough. Mot retail traders not only try to pick turns they often put money behind those calls. I can usually get fairly close to bottoms using cycles and sentiment (but not always, sic, oil). But picking tops is incredibly hard even in natural markets. It’s almost impossible in our modern managed markets. I keep telling people not to short the stock market. Just buy the dips whenever they come.

  31. mustang sally

    Afternoon all you,se Canadians;

    Since you have all the money, you might want to listen, a few of my markers are flashing red lights, my dust marker held, and stocks always lead so gold will follow, if my gold marker at 1196 falls with usd above my marker at 95.14 you don;t want to be holding anything gold or silver.

    Flashing red Sally

  32. JJHarmen

    Trump has been making a lot of noise about the record breaking stock market as being proof of business confidence in him and his (ever changing) administration and he may be right. However, anytime a politician points out how great things are, that is usually the exact time that things turn out to be just the opposite.

    All he needs now is a new war somewhere to get the public behind him. Killing the ragheads just doesn’t stir up the kind of enthusiasm that Trump needs so I figure North Korea is next on the list for our “made in America” bombs.

    1. Nada

      @JJHarmen I am not sure how many times we have to go over this, but war is not possible with North Korea. I am not sure why this is so hard to understand. NK can hundreds of thousands in SK in a matter of minutes. Do you really think a war of that nature is going to break out? No. You may have some sabre-rattling, but thats about it.

      1. Bigdaddy


        Do you really think the warmongers give a rat’s ass about people being killed in some else’s country? We put offensive missiles right on Russia’s border and Putin says those actions make the host countries a target in the event of a nuclear exchange. Does the US care ? Not a damm bit and it won’t care about the people of SK either. We are a country of brainwashed fools . NK is very much on Trump’s agenda.

        1. roadrunner

          China will not be happy with tens of thousands of US troops on its border. They will not let that happen. That is why the USA has not invaded or had regime change in N. Korea. There will be no invasion of N.Korea unless China gives the ok.

      2. paradise1222

        But you got India first messed up its foundation of economy after the war on cash last year. Then now it became a muppet to stir war with china. All done by the invisible hand.

  33. Ed

    Sold sold everything.
    Better missed than lost.
    Well, a really Crooked market.
    Gold stay flat Miners go down BIG

  34. Spanky

    Miners are getting hammered on a relative basis and gdx:gld is poised to break down on the daily chart. M

    1. Gary Post author

      My theory for most of the year has been that the banksters will try to push the miners below the December low before this is over.

      I’m not sure I’m going to play the downside anymore. It’s just too hard to make money on the short side. The bounces are too violent and too erratic.

      It’s much easier to make money in the protected stock market. At least there you know the government will manipulate price in your favor, and if you get caught in a correction you won’t have to wait long before your position is back in the green.

    2. Nada

      Yep, so far the 10ema is providing support on GDX. GDXJ on the other hand has lost the 10ema. Nice choice to switch over to JDST Mustang Sally.

  35. Don

    So far, gold and silver don’t seem too bothered by the miner sell off. That said, usually the miners lead but maybe this time will be different.

  36. Nada

    Today looks like the start of the bloodbath that has been foretold in miners. Let’s se if anything interesting shows up on BOW at end of day.

    1. mustang sally

      Afternoon Nada: Yes sir, the miners will get real ugly when gold crosses 1196 , below that marker you could bet the ranch of jdst, of course with a comfortable stop, but I like to short alot on my first marker which was 29,30, If 1196 slips 865 will come likity split.

      Shorten Sally

  37. Ed

    Gold miners are just as crooked as FED. These CEOs keep diluting shares when time is hard. When time is good sell all their diluted shares and wait for next turn.
    GLD SLV custodian is JPM. When PPT needs physical gold it let them borrow cheap.
    You are no win situations. S&P is too damn high to get in for last 8 years but keep going up. But keep saying it’s too late get in. If finally folds get in, you will get smashed.
    Sorry. like I said Money Missed is a lot better than Money Lost.

    1. Gary Post author

      I don’t think I would buy the stock market head of the FOMC meeting, but over the next 6-8 months the Nasdaq is going to at least 10,000. Seems like plenty of potential left to me.

      The final euphoria phase, along with the baby bull are when the biggest gains are made the quickest.

      1. jake

        Looks like the miners are getting a good push down ahead of the meeting. After Wednesday’s statement then would be a good time to look for a bounce.

  38. Ed

    Every time I am ready to place limit order to buy or sell, these HFTget to front run my limit orders. Never fails, always you end up paying more for buy orders and get less for sell orders.
    Lately I just do market orders. Put the ticker symbol last click the “preview” and “send” buttons in shortest times. They always works out better than limit orders.

  39. Ed

    Pretty soon there will be no warm blooded traders. Just bunch of robots computers trashing each others.

  40. AT

    sold my DUST

    Jul 24 sold 100% DUST 30.95
    Jul 18 buy 50% DUST 30.19
    Jul 17 buy 50% DUST 30.80
    Jul 14 sold 50% JNUG 16.92
    Jul 13 buy 50% JNUG 16.08
    Jul 11 sold 100% JNUG 16.56
    Jul 7 buy 50% JNUG 15.03
    Jul 6 buy 50% JNUG 16.46
    Jun 30 sell 50% DUST 31.48
    Jun 27 buy 50% DUST 30.05

  41. Bigdaddy

    They are trying to shake me out of SLV with the hit the miners are taking. i’m not getting sucked into playing that losing game anymore. I don’t care what the miners are doing.

    1. mustang sally

      Hey Biggy: That is not them shakin you out that is denial that your trade is going against you, kinda like the morphing triangle, Not a good thing in mind, but I am as short as you can get with jdst

      Rockin the jdst


      1. Bigdaddy

        Mustang, SLV is down two cents today to 15.58. Considering that i am in at 15.28 on 1000 shares, i wouldn’t say it’s going against me. Let;s see what to tomorrow brings before getting too cocky.

    2. Spanky

      “I donโ€™t care what the miners are doing.”

      Famous last words.

      Commercials will probably be net long before silver finds a bottom.

        1. Spanky

          SLV blees was 100 back in April 2013 too. Didn’t stop it from plunging another $8 over the next 2 months.

          I hope you are right, but IMO anyone buying slv based on COTs is in for a rude awakening.

          1. roadrunner

            certainly, as in 2013, price can be pushed around by the monetary authorities, i just see that as a low probability at this time.

            I already bought.on July 10 as i posted I was going to do on July 7. worst case, if i do nothing, is I get stopped out for tiny profit.

    3. roadrunner

      SLv was down 1 cent. if a 1 cent move is a shake out, what would you call a 5 or 10 cent move? a bloodbath?
      Silver and Gold are not going to be sold off hard anytime soon.
      With the miners, today was the a day where the retail sold and the banksters were buying.
      Pay no attention to MS nonsense that your trade is going against you. he.she has been signing the same song for at least 6 weeks. Patience BD, your slv trade will be ok.

      1. Mac

        Just so you’re aware there are no such thing as “banksters” looking to fleece the little trader out of their positions. Just another made up boogeyman that serves as a convenient excuse for people that get whipsawed out of positions. Large traders are competing against other large traders and really only consider retail participation when it comes to momentum extremes in emotionally driven positions like AAPL or GLD. I can honestly say that I don’t know a single trader of size who has ever traded a junior miner or anything other than the major large caps like abx, nem, aem etc. There just isn’t the volume or liquidity to make them even worth paying attention to. Large traders will use vehicles like mining etfs for exposure or hedging but again retail traders aren’t the main driver of these markets.

        1. roadrunner

          Who said anything about fleecing? I simply pointed out that retail traders were the ones selling there shares yesterday in the Gdx/gdxj and the big traders were the buyers.
          right, banks don’t engage in trading for themselves. I am sure they are always honest and never get fined for their trading g practices.

  42. dboz

    UGAZ was a bloodbath today.

    Miners, same old. Buy in the premarket, sell on the ramp up, sell and then watch them dive all day. Rinse, Repeat.

    Hard to believe we have this great economy when we don’t have any demand for more energy. But, I do think that the surge is coming soon. Sold my UWT as I did not want to wait for the OPEC meetings. Got out barely flush. Will reevaluate the longer term scenario AFTER this plays out.

    1. Nada

      There is demand. However, US shale oil production has changed the game. Oil cartel is done.

      1. dboz

        Yeah, that does not matter, only sentiment matters. I have learned that from Gary. Tesla worth more than GM=sentiment. FANG stocks through the roof when all they do is sell ads=sentiment. Gold and silver in the toilet=sentiment. BTC and ETH to the moon=sentiment. None of it makes sense or is rational. It’s just herd mentality.

  43. mustang sally

    Sir Nada: I watch dusty and nugt on the 60 min/ 30 day when a trade is starting right now dust got stopped by the 200 day and nugt is below the 200 day, so tomorrow we could see nugt rise up to the 200 which is nothing in the big trade, as you say Nada

    Shortin Sally

  44. mustang sally

    Here is good denial line from my friends at pick up sticks, abx the largest miner is going down with the rest and this bozo named bikko said is company specific. Country risk.

    Thats another morphing triangle

    Wake up people


  45. Don

    The VIX made a low of 9.26 today. It hasn’t been that low since Dec of 2006. Some believe the lack of volatility is evidence of firm central bank control over the world’s biggest stock markets. In other words, this time, it really is different.

    On the other hand, we may very well be experiencing the calm before the storm and it’s just a matter of time before the SHTF.

  46. Nada

    GLD sentiment is at 88 – very high reading of excessive optimism.
    GDX sentiment is at 68 – moved down from 70 on Friday.
    GDXJ sentiment is at 66 – same as it was on Friday.

    In comparison Gold and Silver sentiment optix is low. Odd stuff.

  47. butch

    Well we now have 2 triangles. I believe the larger triangle is in a WXY pattern with the lower trend line at 1172. The smaller triangle is currently in wave D with a lower trend line at 1211. I will allocate 50% of my bankroll at 1211 and if that is breached the other 50% at 1172. The best case is for gold to breach through the smaller triangle down to 1172 . I want to get ALL my money in.

    1. mustang sally

      This is all wonderful verbage Butch, I you in the online gambling game?

      Get in the game


  48. Bluebellkid

    Cant remember who was short TSLA but it made a bullish move today on slightly above average volume. I would be very careful in here as it moved thru the middle Bollinger Band and closed above it AND closed just above the 50 day. If you are looking for some good short candidates check out the auto parts companies AZO – ORLY – AAP. Lowe’s (LOW) is breaking down and looks like a good short and even fund managers are unloading – fund ownership has dropped by 98 funds it in the last year. PPG is on to watch as it crashed thru the 50 day last week on the heaviest volume in months – that is a sell signal. 86 funds have unloaded it this past year.

    1. mustang sally

      Sir Blue:

      I am the one short tsla, I have a marker around 356, that was my initial short, could be a backtest like my dust, if so I would put some heavy artillary on, I will let my marker tell me.


      1. Bluebellkid

        When I am shorting I like to do it around the 50 day as I hope that it has become resistance and if so then it will head back down. TSLA just spent 3 weeks below the 50 day so if it is going to recover it needs to do it pretty quick as stocks that spend more than a few weeks below the 50 day are generally not “healthy” stocks. TSLA just looks too strong to me for a short candidate and they report next week (8/2) so be careful.

  49. mustang sally

    Evening all:
    As we are in a shorting mood, here are my first markers for shorting
    Ndx 4283
    indu 17000
    sp x 2416

    My tsx marker got hit long ago , so I am short tsx, jnug and waiting for the other fine folks to join, Based on my markers this could be the short of a life time, and I don;t have much left

    Feelin Shorty

  50. Bluebellkid

    From IBD’s The Big Picture:
    Another quiet session for the stock market Monday saw another record high for the Nasdaq composite and Nasdaq 100, plenty of big movers in the growth space and an equally plentiful supply of healthy chart setups.
    Tesla (TSLA) and Wynn Resorts (WYNN) were nice winners in the Nasdaq 100, while IBD 50 names Veeva Systems (VEEV), Momo (MOMO), Sina (SINA) and Winnebago Industries (WGO) are all making strong cases for more upside with bullish charts.
    And let’s not forget about Apple (AAPL), which is back above the 50-day moving average as it works on a flat base with a 156.75 buy point.
    Indeed, a complacent market looked complacent again Monday as indexes didn’t move much in either direction and volume stayed light. The Nasdaq composite added 0.4%; the Dow Jones industrial average slipped 0.3% and the S&P 500 eased 0.1%. The Russell 2000 small-cap index edged higher by 0.2%, and the IBD 50 outperformed nicely, up 0.9%. Volume fell on the Nasdaq and NYSE.
    The Nasdaq 100 extended its winning streak to 12 sessions, almost as impressive as Jordan Spieth shooting five under par over the final five holes to win the British Open Sunday.

  51. ras

    Shorts beware. TSLA could be getting ready for a strong up move. Earning release 8/2/2017.

      1. Bluebellkid

        Maybe because since last December there have only been 8 down weeks and weekly volume has been slowing increasing from somewhere around 20 mm to around 38 mm – better known as accumulation.

  52. ras

    Earnings release on 8/9/2017 amc for NVDA with superb growth & earnings acceleration metrics. There could be potential for a nimble trade here like COF last week.

  53. mustang sally

    Evening all.
    Just be doing some calculations and I found the next marker on jdst somewhere above 113 if it stays above , hold your seat folks the next big stop around 1200, can you say short squeeze.

    1. Don

      MS: JDST above 113 and maybe 1200? You seem prone to a lot of wild speculation. I am wondering what you are basing your ‘calculations’ on?

      1. mustang sally

        Good morning Don:

        Well let me tell you, I took my too many years of experience combined it with a computer geek who developed a computer program which charts, using touch points, levels of incidence it can create millions of parrallel lines and channels, It then finds lines of high incidence/probabilities once done gives me a beautiful picture of patterns based on incidence, I call it old fart design meets a geek.They told me in the home colouring and drawing is good for us old people.
        So there you have it , Doodling

        Who’d a thunk drawing lines could be so much fun

        Sally the artist


  54. mustang sally

    Oh I forgot markers , they are high incidence or a confluence of lines, For a human one chart would take hours , Mabel can do it in seconds.


  55. Nada

    Talk about total whipsaw in the miners. A nasty place to be. Everyone will eventually be sick of the sector, then and only then will it start to rally.

    1. mustang sally

      Good day Nada.

      Just what I thought , if you want to add to your short, just wait for dust to get above the 200, should happen today, dust marker is hot , they just keep adding shares everytime it hits and the suckers keep buying nugt.

      Mustang Sally

    2. Gary Post author

      I was pretty sure that was going to happen. Even if this is going down it’s not going to be easy to short it. And I’m not sure it is going down as the dollar may just continue to unravel.

  56. Nada

    When gold is trending, its a great place to be. Especially on the long side as the retail FOMO’s and goldbugs never disappoint. The topping process is always a very annoying for gold, you will have many days of volatility before direction finally changes.

    1. mustang sally

      Be patient Nada, that is where the most money is made. take Gary for example he does not want to short , thats what the market wants. pych 101. The most money is made when it is the hardest.


      1. Gary Post author

        I find it very hard to make money on the short side. As are you I would point out.

      2. Gary Post author

        I think we can say your call for a top was a bit off the mark.

        People have been trying to call a top in this market for 8 years.

        Central banks have printed trillions and kept interest rates at 0 for way too long. We have to finish the bubble first before a top.

      3. Nada

        Morning Mustang Sally. Yes I am in DUST for the contest trade and I am in GLD GDX SLV puts at various strikes and earliest expiration is late Sept, with my own money. I am use to volatility with options, so no worries. The frustration happens with Asia selling gold and then comex comes and bids up – they always want they best price to short from.

  57. Bluebellkid

    Well, Mustang Sally TSLA has reversed and heading lower. I don’t view it as a good short but as I said in an earlier comment a good place to short is the 50 day which is acting as resistance today and stock is heading lower.

    1. mustang sally

      Dear Blue: Don’t wait for the 50 I would be adding alot of shorts on now, it back tested my marker. Your risk increases as it moves away from the marker. Take today the dust marker is being hit again, one should be starting to short or add to the short. The marker is your beacon.


    2. Bluebellkid

      There is also some news today that Toyota is working on an electric car with a new type of battery which significantly increases driving range and requires less time to charge – wont hit the markets till 2022.

      1. mustang sally

        Dear Blue: Its all baked in the chart, Mable identified the marker around 355 as the place to short.


    1. Bluebellkid

      I’m in AA but there are a number of stocks from that group (Mining/Metal Ores) that look good. AA – VALE – VALEP – RIO – SCOO – BBL – BHP – HBM – CLF

    1. Bluebellkid

      Tight bands usually precede a move – one just doesn’t know in which direction

      1. Spanky

        yes, not only that, but you can get a very large sustained move (maybe up to a month) that ends up being nothing but a headfake into a multiyear move in the opposite direction.

        Basically, the tight bollingers are probably only good for options strategies that can take advantage of increased volatility regardless of direction.

        If you think you have some handle on fundamental drivers, you could also take a position long or short based on that handle and you would have an obvious stop.

  58. Ed

    Today is the day PPT is working overtime to paint a better picture for tomorrow’s FOMC. SILVER is going up Gold going down. Everything looks good even at times it looks sluggish. FOMC members will be vigilant on any sign of inflation. Now FOMC is becoming a fu$$%## joke. Ever obedient BOJ Siamese twin of Fed. is doing USD bids.
    What a joke. Today ‘s VIC slam down was also planned a couple days earlier with Zerohedge story how a wall street punk is making $270 million dollar with some option trades and one can make more. How much PPT is paying Zerohedge to run that story ? Btw. Gary. Do you ever get an offer like that?

    1. Spanky

      It’s not the PPT anymore, IMO. They have created a self-sustaining positive feedback loop at this point. In fact, I think the only time the PPT/Fed might be directly intervening is to try to keep a lid on the market.

      There is no reason not to go all in long on AMZN and GOOG. They represent the new fascist business model and will do nothing but get bigger and bigger and more powerful over time, thanks to the Fed and US govt in large part. My cynical 2 cents.

      1. Don

        Spanky: Good point about the “fascist business model”. That is exactly what is happening to the free market capitalist system. Big companies have been allowed to gobble up competitors and with government blessing. This state of affairs will eventually end up much like the old communist system where there was no such thing as consumer choice. You want a toaster? One brand, unchanged for 20 years. How about a car? Same thing.

  59. bluelagoon

    As someone mentioned a while back – July 28th may be a big turn date. What I’m seeing as potential direction changes that seem to have already started brewing:

    XBI – down
    XOP – up
    USL – up

  60. Ed

    This is one reason why I don’t get into SILVER. It acts more like industrial metal than monetary metal. Folks, VI X is close to 8 handle. Volume in stock market is dying out.

  61. Bigdaddy

    Everything is going my way today. I wish that had shorted GOOGL too. Notice how silver is holding up while gold sells down. If you don’t have any silver, get in now. Don’t buy into the oil stock rally. Crude is going up on fake news. You heard it from Bigdaddy. Stay tuned.

  62. jake

    PAAS looks like it wants to close one gap today.
    Any guesses for GG getting a pop like NEM?

  63. Ed

    The world’s run by three stoogies.
    Clueless Yellen
    Kamikaze Kuroda
    Whatever it takes Draghi

  64. Gary Post author

    I’ll take a guess and say that the FOMC meeting doesn’t stop the dollar collapse and gold has probably completed its ICL.

    Those that are short are probably going to get their head handed to them.

    That being said I’m not ready to go full bore long in the metals just yet. I’ll sit on the sidelines for a few more days and see what plays out.

    But I expect gold is just dropping into a HCL, not a left translated daily cycle.

    1. bluelagoon

      Gary – if seasonality plays out this year and the SM corrects in Aug/Sept – then you’re probably right that gold is heading further up….especially since ITS seasonality is usually positive in Aug.

      1. Gary Post author

        Over the last 8 years there have only been three summer corrections. Hardly a very dependable tendency.

        I think the Nasdaq already had its summer correction. The S&P is so managed that who knows if it will ever break free long enough to give us a decent correction.

      2. Bluebellkid

        Last August was bad for the miners – they topped out in the middle of the month and still haven’t recovered. GDX topped out at 31.79 – a 3+ year high but it did so on very low volume indicating smart money was not buying. Two weeks later it crashed thru the 50 day on above average volume giving a sell signal.

  65. Don

    Gary, you were just reminding everyone yesterday, that you have been saying all long that the miners were going to take out their Dec. lows. Is that still the plan and is it going to happen this year?

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s on the table if the dollar rallies. But I’m starting to have my doubts about a dollar rally.

      1. Gary Post author

        Right now it’s probably a coin flip in the metals. So I’m just sitting on the sidelines.

        The easy money is playing the bubble in the stock market.

  66. Nada

    @Gary Well this is going to be interesting. As you yourself have stated, the theme continues – One never thought the dollar would top, now no one thinks the dollar will bottom. It even has you thinking, “this time is different”.

    If the dollar would have put in some type of rally, I think I would agree that the ICL was behind us. The COTs have everyone believing that gold and silver can not go lower. The sentiment in GLD and miners is close to excessive optimism. Gary, you are letting them get inside your head ๐Ÿ™‚ Hold the line, your triangle theory is not a bad outlook.

    1. Gary Post author

      Well it’s not exactly different this time. Notice in the charts that the 200 WMA didn’t stop price during the last two bear markets in the dollar either.

      I’m starting to think it’s the same this time.

  67. Christian

    GDXJ is currently trading below the 10DMA. JPYUSD has formed a swing high and the EURO is not far behind..

    I’ve been saying this all along folks.. the move in Miners is/was anemic indicating further DOWNSIDE. For those of you in a hurry to pile into Miners; you’re about to get a rude wake up call ๐Ÿ™‚

      1. Christian

        I wouldn’t either ahead of the FOMC but Momentum is definitely starting to shift.

        And frankly, I was never onboard with the whole ‘dollar down indefinitely’ scenario despite that ‘not so sexy’ chart you posted. I think the dollar is doing exactly what you always talk about — wiping out sentiment ๐Ÿ™‚

        I am however open to the idea of a HCL in Gold depending on how strong the dollar rallies. That’ll be telling.

    1. Spanky

      Even if the miners rally out of this extremely tight consolidation they are in, it is hard to believe they will do so without at least a headfake lower first. The extremely weak action/candles on the daily chart strongly suggests such a move lower.

      The magnitude and duration of that move lower though is up in the air to some degree, however.

  68. jake

    So the Fed wants to reduce its balance sheet without pulling liquidity out of the market, does that mean they are going to sell all those junk securities back to the banks at 10 cents on the dollar?

  69. Don

    Things are not looking good for the PMs or the miners. The dollar is overdue for a rally. That said, it’s almost too obvious.

  70. Ed

    Do you notice that how nicely JNUG and NUG T are line up final day option plays?
    Break that remaining gold bugs with least amount of money.
    Everything is planned and synchronized by PPT.

  71. Ed

    So this how young NBA punks in PPT trading desks make money. They set goals beforehand. Everyone trade to make that goals same time I mean same day.

  72. Ed

    Like I said I am out of Gold miners yesterday with small profits. I just realized how these guys doing criminal stuffs sanctioned by PPT. An article a couple days ago on Zerohedge really woke me up. From here on I need to look at gold market from a different angle. If Trump is so wimp and can’t tell his own AG what to do. This country is really fuck up. What a sis he is hiding behind a Twitter.

    1. Gary Post author

      The masses don’t invest in gold, they have their retirement in the stock market. The PPT is mostly interested in keeping the stock market propped up.

      If the market is going to be protected why not just make money in stocks?

      1. Nada

        Interesting experiment..

        I have a perl script that pulls WSJ data and then parses out the largest BOW/SOS data every 15mins. Yesterday, I was alerted on a BOW for SPY of around 78m in the morning. I went into SPY 247 calls with Sept 29th expiration. I bought at 3.85 and sold at 4.15 with 20 contracts. Now this was the first time I have started using delayed data for a trade, so I bought myself some time. If I would have went into weeklies, I could have easily doubled/tripled my profit but of course take on a lot more risk if the trade went against me – decay is a monster in SPY options.

        Now I certainly know that the data listed in the WSJ BOW/SOS is nothing to get excited about. The caveat is that you do not normally see all the data. Here is what I mean. Let’s say the SPY takes a dip, and then a buyer comes in with 400 million at 11am. Let’s say by 4pm the SPY closes green. Well as soon as the SPY turns green, the data falls off the WSJ report. So unless you are following in real-time (well 15m delayed), you missed an important detail. My next experiment is to start pulling all this data into a database so I can try to see any patterns. The flows from SPY options are impossible to track, so the equities data provided by WSJ may be worthwhile.

  73. Bigdaddy

    I think we are getting close to the time buy SQQQ. I might wait until tomorrow although it’s very tempting to grab some now. This market is so over ripe that it’s starting to stink. Stay tuned for my signal.

    1. dboz

      I picked up some more TVIX today, BD. Things are not going to crash, but a decent pullback is due and it may just happen fast enough for a 20-30% day. Very tight stop for me though.

      1. Don

        TVIX is an ETN whereas UVXY is an ETF. Most of the time they perform identically but I hope you are aware of the risks of owning ETNs versus ETFs. Personally, I would stick with UVXY rather than TVIX.

        1. dboz

          Yep, just a two day play. Out tomorrow. Nice gain so far. May get a little more tomorrow.

  74. Don

    This Facebook director is cashing out in a big way, selling 558 million dollars worth of FB on July14th alone. Look at the series of sales dating back to November 2015. Notice the stock option ‘gifts’ of 14 million shares every three months, which are promptly sold into the open market. So, whose buying? Central banks are definitely big buyers but Facebook started a 6 billion dollar buyback program this year so there is no problem when an insider wants to sell. What a scam.

    1. Bigdaddy

      I shorted FB because it is a fad that will die out eventually. To see director dumping so much stock tells me i am right. Sinking ship.

  75. palobar

    To understand the importance of the dates I have and will be happily sharing here from time to time, go to in the Wheat forum and read my comment on the 3rd and the 5th of July and then have a look at the chart.

  76. butch

    @ Spanky Thanks for that Bollinger band info. I just bought GDX Aug 18 22.5 Calls and GDX Aug 18 22 dollar Puts for 10% of my bankroll. I’m saving the other 90% for the triangles.
    Thank you again.


    Cowboy Butch

    1. Nada

      Howdy Cowboy Butch. The triangle (if valid) may take a few weeks to come to fruition, those August expiation calls will be bleeding from theta if it takes some time. If you add, you may want to look at October or later. Cheers and GL.

  77. jacob2

    OIL & COPPER? A sign? If todays action is any indicator copper and oil will lead commoditis off the bottom as the dollar free falls off the cliff. Inflation.

    1. Nada

      Man the sentiment in the Dollar is so harsh. Every comment I see is that she is about to fall off some proverbial cliff. Come on folks, its a real possibility she is about to start whistling Dixie!

  78. Nada

    Gold ends the day with a swing high. USDJPY put in a swing low and due to the dollars lower low, we must wait for another day.

  79. Bigdaddy

    I am losing on my FB and NFLX shorts and about even on SOXS . Only silver is making money. What a waste of time this day was. I think i am going to stop watching the market everyday. Its a bad addiction. `

    1. Nada

      @Bigdaddy You want addiction? Try trading futures market. You will be watching 23 hours a day. Another reason I prefer options, because I don’t have to worry about what the market is doing in AH or PM. I can’t do a damn thing about it until cash open, so why stress.

  80. Nada

    Not sure what happened over at BTI today, but someone bought the f’ing dip. 2.8b worth.

  81. victor

    Following my plans and shorted oil today 2x at double top. In red now…, hopefully it turn down after FOMC

  82. mustang sally

    Good day
    Another frothy day for gold and copper bugs. over at pick up sticks they are singing to the moon because copper is leading the way. If they would look at a long term chart of copper, copper is at huge resistance at 2.90. There are 25 lines that converge at 2.90. A rally like this into resistance before a fed day is not good.

    Mustang Sally

  83. Robert

    The miners are predicting that the ICL is not in yet. Go back to the last ICL in gold on 12/15/16 and look on the rally in GDX at the same date. Now that is a real ICL rally. Look on the rally now in GDX 7/10/17. Doesn’t even compare. The dollar cannot just keep going down in a straight line without a counter trend bounce, that’s a ridiculous call.

  84. zkotpen


    “Please share if you find out anything”

    It’s crystal clear: Sharing your ideas with Robert is a really bad idea, from a cost/benefit standpoint.

    Having shared my thoughts with him in the past, I can attest, there’s absolutely no benefit in doing so — and he may blow a stinker right in your face! (to put it nicely).

  85. Pedestrian

    As expected, three itsy-bitsy, little green days on the dollar and gold looks like it peaked and has responded by going red three in a row having fallen 15 dollars since early Monday. If this is indicating how its going to go then be prepared for a bad move down in metals once the dollar really starts to gain a little strength on its coming bounce. To my eyes the dollar looks exhausted on the hourly chart and is ready to reverse higher while gold appears ominous with the rounded top that we can see displayed on the daily. And those July moves up on the big metal miners that the institutional’s prefer to own look ready to correct back down. I will wager August won’t be kind to the metals space. I mean, just look at GLD for example. So feeble it has not been able to exceed its 2016 highs after a year of trying and instead has rolled over even threatening to fail at February resistance. And Silver meanwhile looks no healthier. I am on the look out for a possible impending breakdown on the weekly chart next month that could be very depressing for the silver bulls.

  86. mustang sally

    Good Morning Everyone: Tough nite for sleeping so why not visit my favorite site, As I said in the first post 29.30 marker on dust is proving itself and gld below 117 gold is in trouble, Well today should decide the fate of these markers, is it not odd that decsion of important markers appear around policy days, hmm. Place your bets cause today is separation day. Good like to everyone in the online bingo.

    Mustang Sally

  87. Steffmeister

    Good Mรถrning Mrs/Mr Split Personality ๐Ÿ˜›

    Yes, it’s really 50/50 among experts and analysts out there … Do we have to rely on Mrs Janet Yeltsin … sorry Yell-en? Still dovish, bad news for the dollar, a little bit more hawkish, we will get a bear rally in the dollar, but for how long?

    + Gold
    Many miners/explorers at 52week lows
    Blackrock Gold A2 fund is down since 8th of February
    Dowish call by Janet
    When do Summer Doldrums end? End August or now?

    – Gold
    My fractal “The Candle Count” indicates a 4week rally in dollar and a 4 week decline in Gold following the pattern from 23 December 2016. Will it break or be an exact call here? 21bars up / 3-5-8-13-21-(34 this is my future call) bars down. Yup there is a Fibonacci sequence decline in Gold sine mid Dec and a very predictable 21bar up. This analysis has served me very well the past 5-6 months.

    The great thing is that my top for gold is early August (another 21bars up, we are at 13-14now)) and Janet is making her call tonite, plenty of time to adjust your portfolio accordingly.

    Now I’ve lost my edge against other traders …

    1. mustang sally

      Good day to you Steff: I forgot to ask you are you on the on line bingo game, what better way to prove your system by good old hard gains or loses. My Mabel Markers are in , please let us know if you are in

      Mable Marker

      1. Steffmeister

        You mean Gary’s challenge? Njet, I have other goals in life at the moment …

        My plan is to quit my salary slave job in 2019, when the real Bull in Gold starts. I “only” need 70-75%, then a buy back at a decline of 10-20%, maybe, and another trip to 50-60% and voilรก.

        To be honest I do not consider myself as a trader, I am a value investor ๐Ÿ™‚

  88. zkotpen


    Great to see you mate… specially with all the other posts I have to page down thru, to come to the few meaningful ones!

    While I agree with your general idea for the metals, I think the topping part is a bit premature.

    1. Pedestrian

      Good morning Zkot. Good to hear from you.

      I am taking my cue on gold from the platinum chart where price has turned down fairly precisely based on the lower channel established by the lows of March and May (upper platinum channel is the February and July peaks). That channel angle repeats itself on the daily chart in several places making it meaningful so it was a natural place to see prices decline. As platinum often leads gold I drew a quick conclusion that we are about to see a cyclical decline. When I say “cyclical decline” by the way I am merely talking about the rhythmic rise and fall of gold/silver and platinum that is readily visible on any daily chart (see link below). At this time we are in the timing band for a decline given the pattern of recent months so while my conclusion is not rocket science there is going to be better than even probabilities we fall from here rather than shoot higher. Just take in the chart with an open mind. It looks like a heartbeat monitor with the next move predictably going down.

      Not a guarantee of course. Just likely.

      1. Don

        Ped: It’s good to have you back (you have always been here, we know), making calls on the PMs, given that you have a knack of reappearing and then making predictions that prove to be wrong.

        Platinum has a chart that I like. It made a bottom a few weeks ago that did not exceed it’s Dec lows and is now in an uptrend. Sure, if it does turn back down and makes a new low, it will be very bearish. I don’t think it will but that is just my opinion.

  89. Goild

    Good morning,

    I am not dead but enjoying Asia.
    Now I can understand a bit more Zkot and BillinTokyo.
    Trading here starts late in the evening, at a time one is already tired.
    Bad news for trading as it requires a fresh and well rested mind.
    Nevertheless I am trading on my laptop a bit to pay bills. Nothing is inexpensive around here.

    It seems that at least gold will hit the daily averages, and likely fall.

    Let us make money today. I mean tonight.

  90. Nada

    Big daddy, you still short FB? ER after close. I can’t remember a time they didn’t beat expectations, by a lot. Maybe you get lucky today. S

    Short selling FB on executives selling gifted stock for summer toys is not a good plan. In regards to the kiddies not using FB anymore.. You already said grandkids didn’t know shit these days.. But nice to see you are throwing down money based on their recommendations ๐Ÿ™‚

    1. Bluebellkid

      Not sure what you are looking at Nada but last Nov. 2nd when FB reported the stock was down $2.33 and the next day it gapped down and dropped $7.13 and then a few days later was down another $6.50 or so. The next earnings report on Feb. 1st the stock only sold off a little the next day and then recovered and went on to make a new high by the next earnings report May 3rd – but that was it as stock sold off again to the tune of about $9. It has recovered and made news highs again but earnings reports have not always been a boost to the stock price immediately.

      1. Bluebellkid

        EPS % change for the last year for FB: Sales % change:
        + 233 +52
        +212 +59
        +190 +56
        +124 +51
        +73 +49

      2. Nada

        Well hell, I guess I should have looked at ibd before I posted. Let’s see what we get.

        1. Bluebellkid

          I still wouldn’t short any stock that is above the 50 day. Wait for the death cross to occur and then the 50 day becomes resistance and a good place to short. Studies have shown that the safest time to short a stock is 5-7 months after it has topped.

          1. Nada

            Wow on IRBT. What was the news ? How long have you subscribed to IBD? The information you quoted this morning on FB – is that easy to access from their site? I like the information you have been providing from their site, so I am going to check out today.

  91. Goild

    Day before yesterday there was almost no correlation between GLD and JNUG.
    A good practice is to observe the correlation before the open.
    Also with SPY.
    JNUG felt day before yesterday while GLD stayed flat. Yesterday JNUG was resilient and perhaps today will continue. We may have today a replay of yesterday.

    We have too many rats in this business. The slippage rats cost most than the house fees. Then there are the rats managing the 3X funds ( I mean the smart folks getting very rich). They have JNUG flat and they keep cashing on the pigs.

    I read comments by AT on JNUG profits. It would be nice if AT shares how he does his decisions. Would you? please.

    Where is Dday? Hopefully he will be back.

  92. Ed

    Gold Silver August option contracts expire today. Same day as FOMC.
    Like I said yesterday, it was JNUG @17 broken yesterday, this morning Gold price is under $1,250 and when market opens NUGT will get smashed down below $30.00.
    Just perfect timing as far as Gold smashing scheme goes.
    Great job PPT.

  93. Gary Post author

    I’m going to take a guess that the dollar again fails to rally today when the Fed stands pat on rates. And since it still hasn’t reached the 200 WMA it probably continues to tank and gold turns and follows the rest of the commodity markets higher.

    If I’m wrong and the dollar rallies then I would look for the bottom on the triangle trend line.

    1. butch

      I’m waiting for that Gary. I’m entering 45% of bankroll at the trend line of the smaller triangle( 1211) and if that fails 45% at the larger triangle trend line (1272). I have 10% of my bankroll on GDX Puts and Calls due to Bollinger Band Squeeze and am expecting rapid 5-8 point move. Credit for that goes to Spanky.

  94. mustang sally

    Hello Steff< I see you mentioned 2019 as the start of the gold bull , interesting mabel marker identified July 2019 as the bottom, what do think the price of gold will be?


    1. Steffmeister

      The invers humongous fractal in Gold suggests Feb 2019, but I think late 2018.

      There is a possibility that the low is already in.

      The EXACT number is 970 ๐Ÿ™‚

  95. palobar

    The SPX just gave us a very strong price symmetry where time became price again. We are entering a very strong timing band for the DJIA (see previous comment). To keep going on this market must exced tiday’s high by more than $10 in the next sessions otherwise it is done for now.

    1. palobar

      If the market moves higher beyond the 9-10th of August, it might be preparing for some really big numbers.

      1. Nada

        Morning palobar. Do you mind explaining some of your dates? I am sure you are not pulling these out of thin air, so what type of system is this based upon – Gravitational forces, gann dates, elliott wave, etc – what are we talking about here? No need to be so mysterious ๐Ÿ™‚

        1. palobar

          Hello Nada. Indeed I look at some mysterious things. Gann, of course, was a great inspiration. I do not use EW. It is too subjective for me. The date I posted for the DJIA is not a suggestion to go short as I agree with Gary’s advice on this issue but an area to be extra careful because either you get a change in trend here or an acceleration of the current trend.

  96. Bigdaddy

    I am getting beat up this morning and no, my wife is not beating me. I can’t believe this market.. The semis will not stop going up and SOXS is down almost 4%. Then there is Netflix and that pig is going up again. Plus, I am out in the garage with this dinky laptop because i started swearing in the house and the wife got pisssed at me. What a shitty day this has started out to be.

    1. Gary Post author

      For heavens sake quit trying to short the bubble phase of the stock market.

      The Nasdaq is going to 10,000 or 20,000. You will destroy your portfolio trying to fight that.

      1. Christian

        Seriously Gary — how many times do we need to tell you this? Bigdaddy doesn’t listen very well. There’s a reason he’s hiding in the shed ๐Ÿ™‚

      1. jskauai

        Steff, a similar story to one I am trading…Trilogy Metals… TMQ. I have been selling my position into this spike and I am down to my last 1100 shares which I will sell if we get another ramp up. I will then wait for gravity to work it’s magic!

  97. Don

    Gold stocks don’t seem to be too bothered by gold’s weakness. That may be a sign that gold will not drop too far.

  98. Christian

    Gary — If you believe that Gold’s ICL has already been struck and since you’re currently sitting on the sidelines. When would you plan on getting back into the Miners? During Gold’s half cycle low? Or would you wait for a deeper correction..?

  99. bluelagoon

    Why is everyone so gold focused when the bigger gains have been made in oil the past few months?

    Gary is waiting for a recognition in oil for things to really spike but already gains are pretty big – UWT has gone from high $12’s last Fri to $15 this am.

    1. Nada

      “Why is everyone so gold focused” *because this site is geared towards precious metals.

      1. bluelagoon

        That wasn’t my impression given Gary plays all sectors and for a long time now has been focused on making money in the SM which is the only “safe” or “protected” area now, according to him.

        1. Nada

          The site’s core focus has always been precious metals. The SM “which is the only โ€œsafeโ€ or โ€œprotectedโ€ area now” is a new theme introduced about 2 months ago. Since Oct of 2016, the SM’s view has been a “shit sandwich”. How quickly we forget.

  100. ras

    What is working now? Industrial metals, high growth fang and related stocks and semis. With NVDA set to report in about 10 days, semis could be setting the stage for a BO. For now, pms and oils on the back burner.

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