1. Gary Post author

    We have a weekly swing forming on the NDX today.

    That would be another sign that the ICL is over.

  2. ras

    nya and rut not going anywhere. soxl and tqqq just doing sideways dance. Unable to see any bubble phase in SM yet. nugt may need a bit of pull back and consolidation before powering up again.

    1. Gary Post author

      You need to watch that video again and look at that channel breakout on the NDX. If you can’t see the bubble coming then you need to get some glasses.

      1. Pedestrian

        On the other hand, viewed from a monthly level you might just ask yourself if there is not going to be a correction before wave 4 correction before wave 5 gets under way. That’s if you believe that stock markets will go into a massive bubble in the next couple years.

        Have a look. This pause on the chart might be just a stall before a corrective decline.

  3. Steffmeister

    hahahaha 😛

    I was the only one who bought gold&silverstox at that time, it’s in the blog, go look for yourselves!

    Full Moon 9th -> 10th of August, a truly great call by me …

    1. Gary Post author

      “It was not only Gary, all experts (including the one I subscribe) expected a low during summer and we might still get it, but when gold broke the trendline today I changed direction in a blink of an eye, jumped out of dust and bought my favorite miners.” From June 6.

      Buying all the way down is hardly a qualification for buying the bottom. You did the exact thing I describe here in the video. You bought at the exact top.

      Holding Old Turkey is definitely a viable strategy and those that can do it will probably massively outperform the rest of us that try to trade.

      1. dboz

        Going forward from here on out that may prove the best route. I will say that many many mining stocks I used to own when you told us all to bail out now, are still well below where I sold them then. Some are ahead but barely. AND, I have made more money by not sitting stagnant for all those months than I would lose by buying them back at these prices. That said, going to wait for the weekend to unfold and reevaluate next week. HOPING we get a decent pullback so I can get on board the freight train!

    1. Steffmeister

      Late 2017 highest prob., early 2018 lesser prob. but still possible IF the TPTB choice is taper/deflationary …

      but TPTB wants inflation so we just have to wait and see …

        1. Jimsee

          fwiw – early december is a time pivot for me – dec 5-8 precisely. polarity probably determined early OCT. strictly speaking cycles look for low then but flips happen regularly based on exactly what besides ‘news’ I would like to know 🙂

          1. Jimsee

            trying to predict polarity for sep 5 is trickier than normal imo – but the move either way out of it should be good and volatile imo.

  4. Pedestrian

    And there goes the Canadian dollar. Has it double-topped after a huge 3 month run? Probably. This is really not positive where crude oil is concerned. Or even for golds for that matter. I still think CAD has an eventual date with .65 so the next decline could be difficult for the oil longs. A truly deflationary outcome if you ask me and warns that we may indeed see the CRB back at numbers it posted in the 1970’s.

    Spanky, you got that long term CRB chart handy? Can you post it.

    Thee Canadian dollar could be threatening to break down lower again. Daily chart

    1. Spanky

      stockcharts $crb chart only goes back to 1980. The 2016 low is actually the lowest low on the chart! Pretty mind blowing.

      The Fed’s cronie banksters made an absolute fortune shorting the complex from 2011– one of the most counterintuitive moves you will ever see (i.e., in the face of massive global QE and 0% and negative interest rates!).

      1. Pedestrian

        Somebody posted a CRB the other day showing a prior low back in 1974 which is where the chart implies we are going. That is in the deflationary world that is our real destination in my opinion. Wish I could recall who put it up. Maybe it was on a different site.

  5. Pedestrian

    Canadian dollar on a monthly futures chart. The symmetry is suggestive and bodes poorly for crude oil. And lets face it, just look at that pattern. The thing is little more than a great big, fat, bloated double top encompassing the entire chart.

    Yeah, it’s going down. Just like the Hindenberg!

  6. Gary Post author

    Just for the record and since I know many of you will have missed it in the video. I think one should still have a position in metals as the larger intermediate cycle should still have further to go. But I think you should take down leverage here.

    1. Gary Post author

      Every major country in the world is growing. Europe is growing faster than the US. Base metals are surging higher indicative of high demand. The only laggard is oil.

      We have lots of inflation it’s just that it’s mostly focuses in the stock market right now… and bitcoin.

    1. Pedestrian

      Had not seen that chart either. At least not presented this way. And that gave me a holy-shit moment. It’s a top megaphone pattern but looks like we are at the bottom of the cycle now. This gives me pause to reconsider my viewpoint that commodities are still looking for deeper lows. It always amazes me how different charts can conflict with each other so much. This particular chart worries me though. A lot. What is it that is going to happen at the end of the cycle when commodities crash back to Earth in their final decline? It is almost too much to inquire about but these kinds of charts are so predictable it is hard for me to argue against Rambus case but even more difficult to fathom what kind of economic catastrophe is waiting for us in the future. Like I said, holy shit!

      1. zbigkid

        Its called massive deflation. Get out of stocks now, and maybe temporarily do bonds, but yields are going to go way lower, and probably negative here in the US. Gold does fairly well in deflationary periods too.

        Discretionary spending dried up and hit a BRICK wall in August. The 3% GDP number out of BEA is a freaking lie. It’ll be revised to barely positive some months from now, when everyone forgets what they said about Q2 at 3%.

  7. zkotpen


    I’m just pulling up yearly and intermediate charts for Nasdaq.

    Have you considered the yearly cycle high in Nasdaq, before the breakout phase gets started?

    I see signals for the ICL of my own.

    But one degree higher, I see momentum as dropping off in the yearly cycle. My peak momentum (middle 3 in wave principle terms) is Feb 21, 2017, for the 5 waves up begun Feb, 2016. July 27, 2017 looks like a yearly top — 5 of 3 of 5 of the larger post-2009 bull market.

    So those are my thoughts on the YCH in QQQ — what are you looking at for YCH?

    Middle 3 of current yearly wave 5: Feb 21, 2017.

    Middle 3 of the whole shebang since 2009: Dec, 2013.

    Looks like time for yearly cycle Wave 4 of 5 in Nasdaq. If I had to give a number, I’d say the area of the correction of middle 3 from February — 5800-5900. My preferred 1st target is the 200 day SMA, currently 5909 and rising.

    I’d say maybe a wave B (bull trap) into FOMC, then maybe your debt ceiling scenario plays out to a shallow YCL before the big fireworks display.

    Just some early ideas.

  8. Bigdaddy

    Silver is doing well considering the dollar strength. Hanging to USLV is probably not the best idea but i am watching it closely.

    1. Gary Post author

      Consider converting to SLV. Then if we get a correction into a DCL it won’t be so painful. You can convert back to USLV near the cycle low.

  9. Spanky

    Absolutely no reason to get long the Dow unless it can retake 22100, IMO. Heck, a close above the 20 dma would be a good start to shift the picture to bullish, IMO.


    Also, if you look at the weekly chart, the stochastics have come out of overbought and at least at the moment are still headed downward and obviously have a ways to run to get to 50 much less oversold levels. Could they turn upwards right here and head for overbought again? Sure, but this is anything but a low risk entry IMO. Also, it is highly doubtful the RSI heads back up from this level. It needs to reset, at least to the 50 level IMO. The MACD is also negative and far from neutral.


    Not predicting a crash or anything, but there will not be any imminent explosion in the US stock market anytime soon IMO.

    1. Gary Post author

      This is the kind of mentality I discuss in the video. Retail traders don’t want to buy until a breakout occurs.

      Smart money on the other hand bought at the bottom and they want to take profits on a breakout. So the little guy ends up buying at tops and selling at bottoms.

      The time to buy is when sentiment is extreme and we are in the timing band for an intermediate cycle low.

      Those conditions just occurred.

      1. Spanky

        We’ll see Gary.

        I’m not advocating buying a “breakout”–all I am asking for is a measly 300 pt rally in the Dow to negate the H&S.

        1. Spanky

          Heck, you could make the parameter to go long even weaker by just waiting for a close above the 20 DMA!

          1. Gary Post author

            Or a break of the cycle down trend line as confirmation the cycle has bottomed.

            The SPX has broken that trend line today.

      2. Cardio2

        But Gary yes you called it right re buying gold 2 months ago but if you are also saying USD will keep tanking then even buying gold here will be OK as long as you are correct that the USD will continue headed lower.

        1. Gary Post author

          Watch the video again.

          I’m saying after almost two months of going up there is risk of a correction. Take down leverage. That doesn’t mean go short.

          Heaven forbid I would never short during the advancing phase of an intermediate cycle.

          Buy dips. We may be coming up to a time where we get a dip. Be ready to buy it.

  10. Gary Post author

    There is a scenario where the S&P rallies just enough to make a new high (2500) and then drops again into a more convincing ICL. (I’ll cover it in tonight’s report).

    So if you wait for Dow 22100 you could be buying at the top.

      1. Gary Post author

        Like I said. No ICL I’ve ever seen looked like a bottom. You can’t spot them with charts as they always look like they are going lower.

        You have to use cycles and sentiment.

        I would point out that the retest likely came yesterday at 2430. That was a retest of the Aug. 21 bottom.

  11. dboz

    Gary, I still expect that gold should drop enough to come back down and RETEST the down trend line. NOW, I could be very wrong on that, but after this long, I would think that little scary drop would be nice to see. Hoping that will be a good buy. If not, I just have to jump onto the Caboose at speed.

  12. Spanky

    I imagine Friday, which is the day of the unemployment report I believe, might throw a spanner in the works of stock market and PM bulls or bears, i.e., the potential for headfakes/fireworks galore.

  13. Lenapowich

    President Trump tweeted this regarding North Korea:

    “The U.S. has been talking to North Korea, and paying them extortion money, for 25 years. Talking is not the answer!”

    We finally have a President with balls in the White House. He tells it like it is.

      1. Nada

        Correct and why the SM could care less about. The dips are bought with a passion – as we recently witnessed. I can see opportunities to short for quick scalps at key resistance and fib levels but the fools that continue to short this market day after day will never learn until they can no longer trigger a trade due to insufficient funds.

    1. Nada

      Yep, and why he is attacked 24/7 by the media and the snowflake hate groups like Antifia. HIs re-election will be easy peasy japanesey.

    2. MegaMind

      noko affairs will not be resolved via twitter… there is no way this snowflake wrote the art of the deal..

    1. Nada

      Risky to short due to geopolitical environment and debt ceiling, but that does not change the fact that gold needs to carve out a daily cycle low. I still see correction to 1265-1270 before its complete.

        1. Spanky

          Interesting that the candle for $gold was initially a gravestone doji yesterday, but today has miraculously changed to a spinning top doji!

        2. Nada

          Hard to say with certainty. Here are some reasons I think we are hunting a DCL

          – COTs commercials weighted heavy with shorts
          – Overbought
          – Sentiment
          – DXY 200wma reclaimed and in a possible C wave to 96.50-97.50.

    1. Christian

      That bottom trendline on your chart has been badly drawn Spanky..! You can’t cut through the body of a candle, and certainly not through a cluster of candles.

      I’m amazed that most of you don’t know how to draw trendlines; it’s not that hard for Christ sakes!

        1. Spanky

          I interpret the action in early august as nothing more than a headfake lower to sucker in shorts. The fact that that “breakdown” literally rode the lower rail more or less speaks to that, IMO.

      1. Spanky

        A single trendline is fairly worthless. However, this one lines up more or less with the 50 and 100 hour MAs as well as the lower bollinger band.

        1. Christian

          It doesn’t matter whether you think it’s worthless or not; it’s TECHNICALLY wrong. If you don’t believe me, look it up 🙂

          1. Spanky

            Like I said, the drop below the lower rail in early August was nothing more than a headfake.

            It looks like it worked based on your positions. 😛

  14. JJHarmen

    Pedestrian (or is it Zkotpen?)

    For months now, hardly a day has gone by that you have not told us that gold is going down and that it is still in a bear market but repeatedly claim not to be short anything. Kinda strange for someone who labels himself as a day trader, don’t you think?

    1. Lenapowich

      The stock market always goes up after a news related sell off. I wonder why gold is not selling off fast as it normally would after a news related jump?

  15. MegaMind

    looks like more traction is required for mines to correct… may be by next Friday everyone will be calling for lower prices…

    1. Spanky

      Not this time. Watch the hourly chart. It’s consolidating beautifully. I think we will hit the low for this consolidation within the next 2 days. The 20 and 50 hour MAs are buy points and its possible we tag the lower bollinger band, which would be the other buy point, IMO.

  16. Bob

    I think North Korea has figured out they can finance their efforts by blowing off a missile every once in a while and then playing our markets over the next day.

    1. Nada

      Yes, we must follow Kim Jun Un’s buying on weakness. He acquired close to 300m on 8/22 and 8/24 and unloaded yesterday morning 🙂

      1. Pedestrian

        You never know Nada. A few years back they were turning up counterfeit US dollars so perfect they were claimed to be equal or better than those produced by the US mint. North Korea was implicated and a defector claimed to have direct knowledge of a sophisticated printing facility in the country where they were knocking off untold millions in crisp new 100 dollar bills. The modus operandi was that they then flew them into other countries via their own embassies or into developing nations suffering from dollar shortages and pawned them off on the unsuspecting. So they were appearing in Africa and SE Asia where they were hoarded (as is common) by local populations who prefer dollars to their own local currency. Then inexplicably they stopped printing them but it could have been because the new bills were too difficult to reproduce. The counterfeiting, according to an article in the Telegraph from June last year, may have once again resumed as Kim is in dire need of dollars to finance his needs from abroad. But is he buying stocks? Probably not. But this is a crazy world we live in and you never do know for sure. We can assume he bought missile technology from Ukraine with those dollars though. If they ever bomb his country the dollar print facility is likely going to be high on the list of targets to take out.

  17. Goild

    Pedestrian is clearly not Zkot.
    Zkot is clearly not Pedestrian.
    Any confusion on this means one does not know how to distinguish between gold going up or down.

    1. Kenny

      Pedestrian is ZKOT. You just need to carefully read the two as they compliment and reinforce one another’s ideas.
      Who ever this man (or woman) is, they are in constant need to be noticed. Multiple personalities are created for the purpose of making him/her feel good. The latest creation is called Sheena.

      1. sheena

        Thank you for the days first giggle Kenny. I am actually a bit shocked that people like you exist who obvious have zero ability in perceiving other peoples personalities. Weird.

        1. Kenny

          Your immediate response to the threat of being revealed just confirmed that you are indeed another persona created by Pedestrian/Zkotpen or more precisely, the person that created them.
          Some of the others here have figured out the charade. My question to you is: why do feel the need to noticed?

          1. sheena

            Since Gary doesn´t seem to have a problem with revealing subscribers IP addresses, I am sure he can confirm that the 3 of us are in different corners of the world. You really should get that paranoia checked.

          2. JJHarmen

            Sheena, how in the world would you know “that the 3 of us are in different corners of the world”? Are you very close friends perhaps? Hmm……….
            Anyway, an IP address can be masked by a VPN service but if Gary is interested, there are IP checkers that will tell him what VPN service is re-routing the traffic. There are dozens of such VPN providers so if you, Zkotpen and Pedestrian are all using the exact same service, it would confirm what Kenny has said. I will see if I can find that website.

    1. Gary Post author

      Actually the SPX didn’t make a left translated cycle. It topped right translated and didn’t break the previous DCL.

      So yes there is room for a left translated cycle into October. It will require stretching the cycle.

  18. dboz

    OK, I have convinced myself to wait until next week, see how the market reacts after a holiday. We have seen pre holiday ramps followed by post holiday slumps. We may slump next week. Going to look at that as my possible buying opportunity. May look at IWM or maybe TNA for leverage.

    1. Gary Post author

      Very hard to say whether we got the final ICL. There are multiple signs suggesting we did, but one pesky sign saying we didn’t. Price didn’t break the intermediate trend line.

      Did the PPT just prevent the IC trend line break to keep the market inflated ahead of Jackson hole?

      Yes I guarantee they did. But it’s impossible to tell whether they completely prevented it or delayed it out another daily cycle.

      1. Surf City

        Yes and we never got a Failed Trading o Daily Cycle just yet. We also did not get a failed TCL/DCL in March where I had the last ICL but that is extremely rare from a cycles standpoint. Just shows you how bullish this move is.

        Np doubt that new ATH’s are in the future but I would like to see a decent ICL to reset investor sentiment.

        1. Gary Post author

          Intermediate sentiment did get reset on the undercut last week.

          Just another wrinkle making it hard to tell whether this was a final ICL or not.

          I’m leaning towards yes partly due to I think we are starting the vertical phase of the bubble and that may just prevent normal rules from applying. And partly because I think the PPT just stopped the ICL to protect the market ahead of Jackson Hole.

  19. jacob2

    Markets tend to rise prior to holidays. Still think we get at least a mild correction in September 5%. September and early October not a time known for market euphoria. Remain long old turkey.

    1. Gary Post author

      In all my years of trading I’ve never seen traders come back from summer vacation looking to fight the trend. If the market is going up then they come back to their desks and start buying.

  20. Spanky

    Pretty big divergence between gld and $XJY so far today. With yen down so much, one would have expected gld to be a lot weaker (still time obviously for it to weaken).

    If gld can maintain the 124 level, we could be setting up for a crazy gap up in gold. I give this very little odds of actually happening, but today’s behavior is a bit odd IMO. I am obviously bullishly biased and by no means is gold out of the woods in the short run.

  21. JJHarmen

    Stock market is smoking hot today. Nothing like a little PPT intervention to get the ball rolling. The only sector not in on the action is energy. I still have 200 SQQQ but if there is no reversal by close, I am closing it out and will take the loss.

    1. Pedestrian

      Agree Surf. Just what I was talking about on the prior thread. And as a result the commodity currencies, the Swissy, the Euro and Yen are all in the red today so we now have the first real headwinds for precious metals and crude oil baking up nicely in the oven of the currency trade. This is all playing out much as I was anticipating. Whether it reflects the start of a new trend still remains to be seen but I am playing it for what its worth. By the start of September there should be a scramble to get the hell out of metals once more.

      And down they will go.

  22. Cardio2

    Reading how many trading professionals on social media are calling a bottom in the USD. Will see if Gary is right or very wrong.

  23. Goild


    Pedestrian is in Canada.
    Zkot is in South Asia or near there.
    Zkot mainly posts early or late in the day as at lunch time here he is sleeping.

    You said you have many years of trading experience.
    Can you give us a primer on trading as you see it?

    1. JJHarmen

      Goild, check out what I was saying to Sheena above about using a VPN service to mask one’s IP address. It’s odd how she shows up here only to heap praise on Pedestrian, says nothing about the markets but then goes on about how Gary doesn’t have a problem revealing IP address. That was an issue for Pedestrian who is obviously Sheena and playing games with us.

  24. JJHarmen

    I can’t believe how much has dropped and yet GDX hasn’t gone up that much. DUST was at $30 just three weeks ago and now 22.64. Murder on one’s account. You need a cast iron stomach to play that one.

  25. JJHarmen

    meant to say :I can’t believe how much DUST has dropped and yet GDX hasn’t gone up that much. DUST was at $30 just three weeks ago and now 22.64. Murder on one’s account. You need a cast iron stomach to play that one.

  26. Nada

    You peeps got it all wrong. I figured it out. Gary is Pedestrian, Zkotpen, Mustang Sally, Sheena and Christian! I traced their IPs and they were all!

    1. THC@ganja

      A DHCP packet walks into a bar and asks for a beer. Bartender says , “here, but I’ll need that back in an hour!”

    1. Nada

      Takes some big ones, but there should be no shortages on this blog. XBI looks a little more interesting to short – today may have been a great entry. I took a small starter in SPY. 2 contracts. I must say, I hate trading the SPY because the options are so pricey and the theta is insane. .03 for Nov 17th calls, WTF?

      Only thing I feel good about at the moment is shorting gold and little Kim could screw that up at any minute. Its much safer to wait for the DCL and then long, but there is no fun in that, so I sleep with one eye open as I short gold and SPY.

      1. Pedestrian

        Nada, you and Bob will get a kick out of this story. Martin Armstrong writes that little Kimmy Kong is watching stock markets at the same time he is out for his missile launches. And then he has posted a photo of six screens on a single monitor showing different charts out on a desk at the rocket range. Another great scoop. Kimmy is indeed a market buff. Maybe even plays gold in his spare time! Don’t know how Martin keeps coming up with this stuff but I got a hell of a good laugh and was thinking about Bob’s post earlier today.

        1. Nada

          A few months ago, I watched a documentary on Kim Jong Un;

          He was educated in Switzerland and the last thing I believe, is the man man story. He is very cunning and it would not surprise me if he played the markets. Remember, we had a BIG SOS on the SPY right before the missile launch that went into Japanese air space. -568.16 million to be exact. I certainly could have been a coincidence, but someone took profits at GREAT F’ing time. Then they come in yesterday morning and BTFD with a vengeance and dumped their wad today with -483.50m in SPY outflows. Or it could have been someone playing Trump’s tax reform speech – buy the rumor the news. Who knows, but very interesting post.

          1. Pedestrian

            And this is the problem with the internet. If we were all sitting around a campfire instead of our computer screens there would never be this kind of conversation. I think sometimes we made more progress as cave men than we do as users of technology. I read once that average IQ’s are falling all around the world and part of the reason was people are not using that analytic portion of their brain or exercising their memory because of over reliance on complex systems and circuit boards packed with massive computing power. Some people don’t even bother to know their own mobile numbers anymore. Very few spend time reading. But they all click-click-click away at keyboards or on hand held devices talking to internet phantoms and ghosts they will never meet in real life. Its all wrong-brain activity and it lacks creativity because of its disconnection from reality. I am sure we are paying a heavy price. My worry is that the experience has desensitized most of the worlds people and the technology that should have brought us together actually creates more distance. It certainly makes us more hostile if the posts on this blog are any indication. Pointless stuff too. Written by people who must lead pointless lives.

          2. Pedestrian

            Sorry Nada, that post I just left was supposed to follow the trollish comments of Big Daddy that’s further down below.

  27. JJHarmen

    I had a market if touched stop loss order to sell SQQQ at 27.34 which is 100 points down from the 28.34 that paid on 200 shares. It got down to 28.35 and reversed to close at 27.50 so I still have the shares. I guess I will find out tomorrow if that was a lucky break or otherwise.

  28. Bigdaddy

    Today was a shitty day all around for my collection. I come close to dumping USLV but every time i do something like that, i regret it down the road so still long USLV.
    My gut feeling is that this stock market rally does not have legs and is destined to fail. That all said, my gut feeling works better when i don’t have a position. it’s a bias thing . You know what I mean?

  29. mexican

    Gold on it’s way down to the DCL and oil still further to drop,Play the stock market its the only safe thing at the moment,although the returns are not as big and fast as gold or oil.
    That’s my take for now

    1. Bigdaddy

      mexican, i was told to wait because more downside was coming and so far, that is what is happening so i will wait although i am itching to dive in. Canadian oil stocks are really cheap. What part of Mexico you from ?

        1. mexican

          not a mexican wish i could live there soon thats’ all,i live in Canada, just really like the carribean side of mexico

          1. Nada

            Yes there are some beautiful spots in Mexico. For the Caribbean view, my favorite spot is St. John USVI.

  30. Bigdaddy

    All this talk about Pedestrian, Zkotpen, and god know who else being the same person is irrelevant. Pedo is mostly wrong, lies all the time, refuses to reveal when he puts on a position and never experiences a loss. Folks, you would have to be brain dead to take him seriously. Don’t be a zombie.
    Zkotpen is a lot like Pedo except he’s unfamiliar with the English language and nobody understands what he’s flapping his gums about anyway so just scroll through his stuff like i do. They are both full of horseshit and that’s all we need to know. Enough on the matter.

  31. butch

    Ped is not zkot but Ped is sassybabe. Use logic. Sassybabe was the only person who said that Ped knows a lot.

  32. zkotpen


    Good evening! Nice to see you here.

    If we could keep to the business at hand — markets and not characters — that would be awesome!

    Back on point: Happy trading.

    Speaking of which, I was missing your lunch money posts today… how did that go for you?

    I find your trading style interesting, to say the least!


  33. Kruzoe

    BD would understand.
    Boss hangs a poster in his office:
    He returns from lunch, finds a slip on his desk. “Your wife called, she wants her poster back”

  34. mexican

    Big daddy,
    I live on Vancouver Island BC canada, just use the name Mexican, Really nice people down there just stay away from the drugs LOL
    Soon as our house sells here in Canada we are moving south to Mexico

  35. ras

    good moves in tqqq and soxl, but nudging into resistance zone. nya and rut are still struggling. Pms taking a btrather?

      1. Bob

        Not as bad as I thought, thank you. Your advice to just hold through came through in the last couple of days.

  36. Goild


    Lunch money…
    Well some here prefer that I do not post I have made lunch money.
    It appears to irritate some posters and so I will refrain from posting it.
    Though some posters here spent 6-8 hours here and by the end of the day what do they have to show for a compensation?
    If we spend 6 hours daily here, we need to make say at least $1K a week as a minimum pay for our time.
    If posters here are swing traders, I wonder how they spend 6 hours watching the candles.
    The point about lunch money is that you get paid for the time spent every day here. You have something to show up for your time. And then you have the bonus of the swing trades profit. Aiming for lunch money provides direction and a tangible goal for the day.

    But I will try to refrain from posting I have made lunch money. It is childish, yes. We also need to have some fun. After all, we all are like kids here chasing money and like very much to say I am right.

    Soon it will be time for me to change gears. I am going for bigger money, for better trading.

    A master trader must be an expert at day trading. There is a lot to be learned from day trading.
    Of course bigger money is in swing trading at the expense of more risk.

    But I am an ant so far, no big talents here but perhaps only persistence.
    I am at about +$80K since October when joined the SMT.

    Once I hit plus $100K day trading I will get into taking bigger risks.

    I like to think of the fine art of trading. Which means different things for different traders.
    But there is excellence in trading and I am after it.

        1. Pedestrian

          We have a dollar breakout on the hourly chart. Very minor so far but its a warning shot. If it pushes over 93 we are game on and start looking for the next resistance levels to fail. To me there is little doubt the dollar is on its way back up. The expanding pattern (megaphone) that is easily visible on a monthly level chart projects to around 1.10 and could take anywhere from 8 to 10 months to play out. This is in line with my estimate of a *final* gold bottom coming in around August of 2018 as an estimate. During that time, if I am correct, gold will fall below the prior lows of 1045 as the dollar pushes higher.

          Dollar Futures monthly chart — The pattern created since 2014 implies the dollar rises to 1.10

          1. Gary Post author

            Actually the megaphone pattern is already mature and they are topping patterns.

            So the likely scenario now is that this swing truncates well short of the last peak and then we get a breakdown that confirms the bear market.

            I doubt any rally lasts much longer than 4-6 weeks tops.

          2. Pedestrian

            That megaphone is incomplete Gary. Look at it carefully. The third leg up is about to get underway so the final drop won’t come until the middle of next year. You will know I am correct on this once it becomes obvious the dollar has popped and is rising out of its YCL. The advent of another dollar cycle higher will require just about everyone to revise their thinking about what will happen to gold next and also explain why it will interrupt the time schedule they originally anticipated for the next gold bull market to begin. Gold will not get another chance to rally above the 2016 highs until this is over and that will confirm the bear market in metals is still alive and well.

          3. Gary Post author

            The megaphone is very poorly formed to begin with. So it’s another one of those cases of a trader squinting just enough to see what he wants to see.

            This is where you need a working knowledge of cycles. If you understood cycles you would see that the euro cycle is extremely right translated. That means the drop into the next ICL will be short, probably not taking more than 4-6 weeks. That will of course force the dollar rally to truncate quickly and then start another leg down.

            This is why you keep missing calls in the metals. Your perma bear bias and reliance on one very poor tool (chart patterns) is allowing you to see what you want to see (you see a megaphone where there really isn’t one) instead of what’s really happening. The real picture is that gold is making higher lows and soon higher highs. All the signs are there that the bear market ended in 2015 but you won’t allow yourself to see it because you are very emotionally invested in the bear theory.

            You need to add cycle analysis, sentiment, and COT’s to your chart patterns to effectively trade the metals. You also need to get rid of your perma bear bias.

          4. Pedestrian

            The proof will be in the charts Gary. Lets just stick to facts. You already called for a multi week decline in the dollar so it will be you who is wrong and missed another major trend turn if my pattern plays out as anticipated.

            I am saying the dollar has hit bottom. You say it will go much lower for many weeks more. Lets watch and see who was right and who got it wrong.

          5. Gary Post author

            LOL I got us off leverage at almost the exact top. You want to know how? The euro had rallied enough to tag a major resistance zone at 120.50.

            I took more profits on metal positions today just in case this does turn out to be an ICL in the dollar.

            But the problem is still there. There euro has formed an extreme right translated intermediate cycle. It’s making higher highs & higher lows (just like gold). So the decline into the ICL won’t last very long. 4-6 weeks tops. Then the euro will begin another intermediate advance and the dollar another leg down.

            You really need to study cycle analysis. And I’ll say it again, you need to get rid of your perma bear bias. The bear market trend line has been broken. Any correction now is likely just going to retest the breakout.

          6. Pedestrian

            You make me laugh Gary.

            As soon as anyone makes a call contrary to one of yours you start attacking them with a bunch of false claims about what they missed, what they need to learn, how they need to change etc etc.

            You don’t back up your words with anything but bullshit, bluster and insults.

            And then you turn around and trade almost exactly the way I was suggesting. You wrote you “took more profits on metal positions today just in case this does turn out to be an ICL in the dollar”.

            Your actions prove you are actually listening to me and respecting the clear and concise warnings I am writing daily so stop criticizing when you are taking value from my technical analysis.

          7. Gary Post author

            I’m not insulting you. I’m calmly giving you the reasons why I think you are wrong.

    1. Pedestrian

      I’m ok with the lunch money thing. This site needs a few more laughs. Too much pettiness lately. And do you ever notice that the ones doing the most criticizing and complaining are usually the same ones who can’t trade and never offer anything of value? They get all their energy from knocking everyone else down. Seems to be getting worse lately. It’s just wading through personal attack posts written about contributors every day lately.

      Just wait until gold actually starts falling. Bugs are the most bitter people on the planet.

      This place will be a riot of a hang out.

    2. Nada

      Also it kinda makes sense that swing traders have a lot more time, since they are not executing 40 round trips over an one hour time period while trying to play a slot machine.

      Also Goild, a lot have jobs that pay well over 100k so trading is supplemental.

  37. dboz

    FYI. Platinum and Palladium we’re at 81% bulls today. Gold 53% and silver 52%. So could go either way. Open mind.

  38. zkotpen


    “Well some here prefer that I do not post I have made lunch money.
    It appears to irritate some posters and so I will refrain from posting it.”

    Great. Then kindly do not enter into the gossip non-versation about me. That is far worse than posting about the relevant subject at hand.

  39. zkotpen


    “do you ever notice that the ones doing the most criticizing and complaining are usually the same ones who can’t trade and never offer anything of value?”


    “Seems to be getting worse lately.”

    I warned you the level of inanity went thru the roof over the summer!

  40. zkotpen

    I still haven’t ruled out another push up by gold… particularly as USDJPY seems rigidly rangebound between just under 111 and just above 108.

    It would be funny if gold topped on October 5 for a YCH!

  41. Gary Post author

    It’s still a bit early to tell yet, but I’m keeping an open mind that the drop in the euro and bounce in the dollar could just turn out to be a half cycle low.

    If so then the gold cycle still has further to go.

    But it’s still way too late in the cycle to be leveraged. Catch any further rally in unleveraged positions and that way you won’t take a big drawdown if it turns out gold is about to drop into a DCL.

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