1. Gary Post author

      Well you are measuring from a half cycle low so I don’t think the Fib would be dependable.

      I suspect you’re still a bit premature. We may need to bounce and then generate one more lower low before the final DCL.

      And if the yen is heading into an ICL then it could still be 3-6 weeks yet before gold forms the final ICL.

      1. Nada

        Ahh, yes well I am not a believer of this super cycle just yet. It is definitely in the back of my mind. I am not sure if I even plan on holding in front of FOMC decision. I am fearful of an aggressive balance sheet reduction, so you may be correct about a move lower. Depends on price action today.

          1. Christian

            You forgot to mention this little bit though..

            “Consider this a Dollar Cost Averaging strategy. Prices could bottom this week, but it’s not guaranteed, so use caution with leveraged funds. I’ll add the next 25% when prices form a swing low or when I feel confident in a Bottom.”

            I think he’s early but at least he’s got a strategy; I give him that.

          2. Nada

            No? I thought you were a subscriber or maybe it was likesmoney. I remember you posting a chart a few months ago with one of their theories, but maybe I am not remembering correctly.

            Gold is pretty boring at this point and if does not move back above 1320ish, then I would be more concerned.

      1. Jimsee

        a financing @2.25 range – 2.7 for the warrants though – not a random number look at recent trading – in the doldrums (not trending markets) the market makers move them up and down for corporate purposes. 10% above 2.7 or ~3.0 is my min target for shares bot dow here fwiw.

          1. Pedestrian

            I like that its sitting right on its 200 week MA and near its May 2016 support level. Badly oversold too. There are great reasons to like this little stock at this price and level. Might drop a lower but looks good to me in general.

  1. Christian

    I warned everyone yesterday that GDX was over-extended below its 10 DMA. If so, a bounce UP would be a great opportunity to add to any short, because the move down into a DCL is not over yet..

        1. Nada

          It was a joke – itsinthedna posted gold will resume uptrend tomorrow with no reasoning or chart, so I was just being a smart ass.

          Anyway, market is frozen until Fed.

  2. victor

    Jimsee, there’s some problems with MUX.to, yes, potential is here but, just overlay two charts and compare MUX and SVM.to, 2x% outperformance, I would go with even more potential. imho.

  3. Bigdaddy

    USLV and LABD are going my way this morning but the SM just won’t go down. To make matters worse my wife mentioned this morning that maybe there is too much of OUR money in the markets. WTF?

    1. roadrunner

      What you didn’t get the memo, BD? with women it goes like this. Whats yours is hers and whats hers is hers. LOL

      1. Pedestrian

        Waaaah, waaahhh… Oh the world is so UNFAIR! Poor little Roadrunner got beat in his marriage settlement because he couldn’t roll with the punches and learn to play the game. I understand you so much better now. A blamer.

        Swear buddy. My heart breaks for you.

        1. roadrunner

          FYi…it was a joke to BD. I am sure he, like everyone else got it…except you. i have been married for 24 years. and only been married once. So you actually understand nothing…but we all knew that. but i encourage you to keep it up. You show more and more of your poor character each and every post.

          1. Pedestrian

            Still waiting for one of you so-called decent people to congratulate Gary on his recent success. You know, like a normal social transaction with less of the chronic criticism and negativity.

          2. roadrunner

            WTF??? I have not been criticizing Gary so i have no idea what you are talking about. if he has had success recently then that is good. And unlike you, i do not criticize folks on this board for their trades. Unlike you, I do not get pleasure when someone posts a losing trade. i do not post rejoicing in someone else’s loss. . but you do.

          1. Pedestrian

            Your friends are reading your daily comments. To your face they are giving high-fives but behind your back they register what your real personality is all about.

          2. Pedestrian

            Human nature never changes. Some things are just timeless. And being judged by our peers is one of them. The universe has a way of correcting people who are antisocial, belligerent and proud. Just a matter of time but it rarely ever fails. It is a truth that you usually get what you dish out.

        1. Sassybabe

          LOL! (Bigdaddy) That was cute. That jerk called me a “dingbat” yesterday just because I questioned his contradictory statements on gold. Can you believe that (little) weasel of a man?

    1. Troy

      Smart move BD. Let the dust settle first and let gold/silver find their DCL’s. You may have dodged a bullet.

    2. Sassybabe

      Bigdaddy, please tell me, are you now bullish or bearish on sliver? I just bought silver yesterday and it’s not looking good.

  4. Bigdaddy

    Just bought another 3000 LABD at 5.11 which brings my total to 7000 with average of 5.08. Biotechs are rolling over, in my opinion.

  5. Gary Post author

    It looks like the Dow is on a beeline to reach 23,000.

    We may not get that HCL after the FOMC meeting. There isn’t always one, especially during the first daily cycle.

  6. Herman

    My bet is this is a normal DCL and the retracement will be no more than .38, will buy more GDXJ when 1300 is touched.

  7. Bigdaddy

    Pedo, this is when you are supposed to tell me that i am stupid for buying LABD (like you did when i bought USLV).

      1. Lenapowich

        I have another name for Pedestrian but it’s not very lady like so I better keep it to myself. Asshole will have to be suffice.

        1. Pedestrian

          Being “Ladylike” is not a virtue. That is just a term that Mothers once conveyed to their daughters in another time when people were more civil with one another in the hopes she might adhere to more traditional female roles. Those days are long gone. In any case, its not a characterization suitable for you.

  8. Lenapowich

    BD, you didn’t respond to Sassy’s inquiry. I am also curious to know where you stand on silver and gold now what about oil?

  9. Bigdaddy

    Sorry, but i have been busy studying the markets. I just bought 3000 TECS at 8.96. I think the tech sector is way over bought and ripe for a fall. I am still bullish on silver but think there might be an opportunity to buy back later in the week after the FOMC meetings. I think oil is going up but my sources in the industry say not yet.

  10. Christian

    GARY β€” more than half of the comments on this post are from Pedestrian and they are nothing but crap, and it’s mostly the same F*cking shit every day bud :/

    How long are we gonna have to put up with this garbage before you get off your beautiful ass and get rid of this joker?

    **Oh and before all the other jokers come out of their crawl space to slam me down: If I’m a complete waste of time Gary can get rid of me as well 😝

    1. Gary Post author

      It would be more constructive if everyone would just debate the markets rather than insult each other.

      One can disagree with someone else’s position without resorting to name calling.

      1. Christian

        “.. without resorting to name calling”

        Exactly Gary — So do me a favor, when you have some time to kill go back and read the number of times this guy has insulted someone.

        DON, JJ, BIGDADDY, LENA, SASSY, ROADRUNNER………. these are just a few off the top of my head but the list goes on my friend :/

        Ps: I’ve never met anyone that was so thin-skinned. Holy F*ckballs!

        1. Gary Post author

          They have all insulted him as well. Almost no one is innocent.

          We could save a lot of space if everyone would just quit the name calling and get back to debating the markets.

          1. Pedestrian

            Agree again. There is a little power trip going on with some of the people posting lately. Attack, attack and attack each day with no purpose. You have no choice but to defend.

            Hey Christian, peace will break out just as soon as you grow some manners.

          2. Christian

            Yeah well.. guess who likely started it, Lol! I guess it’s all a matter of perspective and I am also guilty of fighting fire with fire every now and then.

            I’m only mentioning this because I’ve been following you for years Gary and I don’t remember it being so bad. There’s a common denominator in all of this and it’s not any of the people I’ve already mentioned.

            Anyways.. I’ll pipe down for now πŸ™‚

    2. Pedestrian

      What is your problem? Yesterday I was writing about the Euro, German elections and the potential for a credit contraction and you never got involved but today its all personal comments. You are the one who is off base and off topic.

      Two months back (when I was absent) you were calling other posters here worthless “parasites”.

      I think its you who has a problem Christian and its not the first time.

  11. Gary Post author

    I will caution again that the yen has potentially 30+ days yet before it completes the current left translated cycle.

    Any bounce out of a DCL right now has high odds of becoming left translated.

    I’m not sure why so many people seem determined to take the hardest route and fight with the metals that are still stuck in the basing pattern instead of playing the easy money of a stock bubble.

    1. Spanky

      If the yen gives up the ghost, the US stock market is definitely headed much higher. Conversely, a falling yen should put massive pressure on the miners and PMs.

  12. Ragnar

    EUR/USD rises 0.36% on no news. S&P500 doesn’t move. It is a sign of weakness.
    Short term play: Buying SPY puts (low volatility). I’ll sell them tomorrow when volatility will rise.

  13. JJHarmen

    Ped, you come on here and criticize everyone who has the balls to post their trades, name call most everyone that doesn’t agree with you and worst of all, continually lie about your stance on the markets. It’s time for Gary to get rid of you for good.

  14. primetime


    A lot of animosity is thrown your way out of jealousy. If your skin was just a little thicker and not quite so sensitive, you would be much more effective in your communication to fellow posters. You discuss a wide range of topics well, but sometimes they turn into tangents because you get vindictive, frustrated or angry.

    Christian always has and always will take the self proclaimed, self righteous high road against all others. The only problem is, he has usually insulted everyone before they even reply, simply with his choice of verbiage. He always keeps the upper hand. I have been more tolerant of his style, as I have accepted the fact he is a good person with good intentions. Just a little “cocky” (or a lot cocky) as he has made us all aware of many times unfortunately. LOL

    However, I have never understood crying to Gary (daddy) to ban someone. WTF

      1. Pedestrian

        Check out this daily chart on gold. We are currently sitting pretty much right on top of an important support that should hold if gold is going to go anywhere serious in the next while. What you see here is the back-test support line coming into play. Draw a line across the tops of the April and June 2017 highs and intersect it with today’s price. You can see that price has come down to that critical point and stopped dead.

        Will it crash through or will it bounce? Only the shadow knows.

        Gold back-test is in play today.

        1. Nada

          “if gold is going to go anywhere serious in the next while. ”

          IF? It’s going to the forking moon! See you girls at the gap fill!

    1. Pedestrian

      I appreciate that analysis Primetime. Tell you what. I will take the high road for the next while and lets see what comes of it.

  15. JJHarmen

    Very tight managed range on the S&P today. The central banks will make sure there are no shocks before the FOMC meeting.

  16. Spanky

    Will the Dow make it 6 days in a row closing over the upper bollinger band?

    This is just a relentless grind higher. not even close to bubble like activity. Which is good for anyone long. Every thousand points we get a 1-2% correction.

    BTFD. I imagine the yen is going to get slammed over the next 6 months which should drive the next leg higher in stocks. Conversely, the metals will probably be extremely weak.

  17. Bigdaddy

    SOB!! I sold my USLV too early and lost out on an additional $600 profit. When am i going to learn to stick to my calls and let them run for higher profits? Silver is on the move, just like i predicted.

  18. Pedestrian

    Looking at GDX on a multi year chart (futures weekly) we can see that it has formed the essential parts of a falling channel should it fail to exceed its recent highs of 25 and a half. Use the peak of April 2016 and the September 2017 high point to draw one of the channels and then find its near perfect parallel mate using the bottom points of May and December 2016.

    That looks pretty bearish to me and suggest a very steep fall if there is not a quick recovery.

  19. Pedestrian

    The small rise in copper prices yesterday and today are not much more than a back-test of the prior support line but given today’s action look like they are bumping up against what is now resistance. The quick visual test is to just run a line across the lows of June and July this year and then locate current price where it is back-testing now. Failure to hold here and rise higher means we have another leg down in copper. Just have to wait and see how this plays out.

  20. palobar

    Fully agree with Gary on the October turning point. It looks that October is shaping up to be a very strong month for many markets (Gold, US Equities, and the Grains).

    1. Pedestrian

      Probably not for crude oil though. Today WTI futures were repelled at the major top resistance line on the first attempt to break out. That does not mean it won’t go higher but should price keep falling in the coming weeks then we have likely seen the top of this cycle.

      Run a line across the peaks of February, April and September to see what I mean.

      This could well be the YCH that began back in June this year. You should also take note that the entire pattern in place for this current year is a giant expanding wedge which implies that the coming decline could be one hell of a good short opportunity on crude oil that could eventually take us down to the mid to low 30’s (shock!)

      The implication here is that the dollar is indeed about to start rising again and we might already have a confirmation of that on the copper chart. Keep a close eye on WTI for the next while in case the drop continues. If it does you might want to get the hell out of Dodge.


      1. Gary Post author

        Oil is going to $60 during this intermediate cycle. However I do think it’s going to be trapped between $60 and $40 maybe for a long time.

        1. Pedestrian

          Could be Gary. I am not calling it (since I got burned calling gold wrong twice last month!). I am just pointing out we have arrived at a point worth watching. Lets see what the Fed, Bank of Japan and German elections bring in the next few days. Sheesh, its exhausting following politics and policy lately. Full calendar every week lately.

      1. Nada

        LOL. I have to say, without smart ass comments like the one demonstrated above, this site would generate 0 traffic. No wonder Gary has about 3-4 personalities on here – gotta keep shit interesting! πŸ˜›

      2. Spanky


        It’s like saying, “At some point, the sun will burn itself out, and all life on earth will perish.” Let us know when to start investing in flashlights please. We will be trillionaires.

      3. jake

        Right BB, there’s a lot of extrapolation going on with the stocks and gold, dollar and gold and the yen and gold, its nonsense. Gold is in a bull market because of the accumulation since 2012. If you don’t think gold can move up with the stock market, it has more times than not.

        1. Pedestrian

          Gold has been in a continuous bear market since 2011 already. The only thing that matters where its price is concerned are the correlations being discussed tonight. This is all you need to know in order to play gold with success. Nothing else moves the needle long term. Not even Kim Kong.

  21. Pedestrian

    Yen/$ futures monthly chart is warning that a serious drop could be in store (soon).

    Pay special attention to this chart people. We have a candle for September that has come right up and touched the underside of the primary resistance line. It is a huge red flag for gold. For those unfamiliar with this chart, gold falls when Yen/$ falls so we have arrived at a potential turning point that could be quite bearish for precious metals and miners.

    If Yen fails at this critical resistance level then perhaps reconsider your long exposure in metals and miners for awhile. I don’t know what will happen here. Other charts conflict and suggest miners will rise soon however in the past the Yen has been an excellent barometer of the health of our favourite sector. Lets just say the yellow flag is out and caution is advised.

    Run your line across the peaks of 2012, 2016 and 2017 to get the primary resistance level I refer too.

    Monthly Chart of Yen Futures — Octobers candle may well give us our final answer.

    1. Gary Post author

      The intermediate yen cycle is strongly right translated. So the correction will only last one daily cycle and it will be just that, a correction. The only thing the yen is signaling is that it is stuck in a basing pattern just like gold.

      1. Pedestrian

        Maybe. But Yen has already failed at resistance on the weekly level chart and price now projects down to sub .80 if it cannot mount a defense soon. Draw the upper channel line and see what I mean. We are already two weeks into a cyclical (daily chart) decline that looks pretty strong. These are the kinds of charts I watch each day to give me a read on the market. I don’t bother posting them here very often because there often isn’t much interest in the bearishness they suggest. But it is probably worth it to some people to at least be aware of them.

        Yen/% weekly level chart — We have already failed to exceed resistance two weeks ago.

  22. Pedestrian

    The 30 year Treasury is still confined comfortably within its 25 year rising channel. No chart damage recently. The implication for me is that even lower rates still lie ahead and that the few small increases we have seen so far are just an anomaly along a much bigger pattern. Currently we are on the low side of the channel with price projecting off the screen. Any recession will be sending bond prices to much higher levels so TLT is likely still a good bet for a few years yet.

  23. Pedestrian

    And here is the chart of TLT which is an odds on bet to be bought right now. Price is sitting right on its primary support line identified by its July and September lows versus its highs of April and June. Makes you wonder what the Fed has in store tomorrow doesn’t it? They were saying the meeting would be historic but I am not sure what that means.

    TLT 20 Year Treasury Bond on a daily chart

    1. Pedestrian

      As a reminder, rising bond prices (using TLT as a proxy here) generally imply falling gold prices. You can see that visually on this chart that goes back to 2011 when gold last peaked and since then Treasury prices have been pretty steadily rising. So unless T-bond futures have already hit their final top (and I am not saying they haven’t) then we should expect gold to continue to fall back. This is already an established trend going back 6 years. Maybe someone can show me why it will suddenly come to an end (besides the Fed I mean!)

      TLT on a monthly chart — Looks good to keep rising to my eyes.

  24. Pedestrian

    OK, that’s enough for tonight. The whole point is that gold’s next big move is hardly assured as implied by the correlations. I don’t write these posts to send anyone astray but rather just to point out that there are serious bearish arguments outside the day to day short term movements.

    Bigger picture we do not have confirmations this is yet a bull market although there is still a chance if some of these charts give way soon. But take a look at the Euro which is one of the most important charts right now and notice it too has arrived at MAJOR resistance.

    This time, draw your upper channel using the peaks 2014 and 2017 and then create the near perfect parallel with the two low points found in the years 2012 and 2015. Now hopefully you will all agree that is pretty damn convincing as far as chart resistance channels go. And please keep in mind that a falling euro means a rising dollar by default. Since we have literally arrived at the point of no return we can rest assured we will get an answer on this very soon.

    The Euro MUST break out higher and violate that upper resistance line or you guys can kiss gold goodbye for another entire yearly cycle as this thing spirals back down to the bottom and mean-reverts. If you want a hint about what is about to happen by the way, you should also take notice that the euro price spike during 2017 is an almost perfect bear flag.

    So yeah, you already guessed what my money is on. TOTALLY BEARISH.

    Check this chart yourselves. This is where the rubber meets the road next Monday.

    1. Gary Post author

      The same forces are at work in the euro as the yen. The intermediate and yearly cycle is strongly right translated. That means a correction will be just that, a correction. It won’t last more than 4-6 weeks and then the dominant trend resumes. In this case the dominate trend is up in the euro and down for the dollar.

        1. Pedestrian

          LOL!! Good one Gary.

          But no! πŸ™‚

          I think you will see soon enough that the developing pattern of 2016 and 2017 for gold is just going to be another large double-top and price will once again fall below that moving average. We will have to wait awhile to get there naturally. Between now and then neither one of us can be right until we see the final outcome (so I won’t declare victory yet even though my trade is short side).

          Anyway, moving averages cannot be predictive since they are a merely a collection of points based upon prior price closes. I know people REALLY want to believe in them but its only a characteristic of how charts function that price is mostly below the MA on declines and above it during rises.

          All that really signifies is the cyclical nature of patterns though and not much more.

  25. Pedestrian

    Getting back to business again. I am looking at the Euro at this early hour since its really the focus of my attention lately. The Yen matters to gold of course and US dollars matter too. But at different times one or the other of the major currencies will come to the forefront to give the precise signals we need to make our next trading plans. Some uncertainty remains therefore and until the euro actually makes its move we cannot say anything is 100% guaranteed.

    Of course you all know that I *think* the Euro and dollar are about to reverse.

    And indeed I have set my own trades to reflect that. But its important to understand I can still be wrong and indeed I have been wrong at least twice recently when gold failed to reverse at my targets. Late last night I wrote that I was demolishing the bull case for precious metals but I will admit that was a little bedtime comedy for the bears (just to get them riled up one last time!)

    But don’t take it personally. All these charts are really showing is that we have arrived at a point where an important change *could* take place. What I have not given attention too (yet) is that the change might be we don’t get the expected reversals at all!!!

    In other words, Gary could turn out to be right and so will the bulls on the site.

    For me the most important use of technicals is that they locate the points where critical change happens but I do this without actually knowing in advance if the change will take place as expected. Put another way, the euro could blow right through the top of its critical resistance line and my bear-case would be almost instantly destroyed.

    So (dropping my guard a little) I am not claiming any special clairvoyance on the gold market. Its only that I have been a very good observer of the chart dynamics for many years since I focus on them day and night. While I make the best effort I can there have been a few setbacks and disappointments where my charting let me down. Hopefully some recent refinements to my method will yield better results in the future.

    So where is the Euro at right now?

    Well, on the hourly chart we can see that it looks like we had a peak at 1.2076 and price might (not for sure people, I only wrote “might”) start to roll over at a lower high than the previous hourly chart peak of 1.210 and if this does happen then chances are good we will see the euro head into breaking another support level on the downside near 1.20

    Euro futures hourly chart — (These are live charts by the way so they will change as time passes)

    The Euro had already breached its first channel support on the 19th but then inexplicably it bounced back rendering that breach little more than an undercut of the primary trend channel. Since then it has risen almost back to its highs as already noted above.

    I think we are within days of a decision and its why I wanted to point this out to everyone on the site. The Euro’s failure to break down at this current turning point however will be confirmation that the bullish case for gold is intact and the other charts that had been conflicting with my bear case will be validated.

    If however the Euro falls then LOOK OUT BELOW!

    What that event will imply is that we will have to wait for another ENTIRE YEARLY CYCLE decline on the euro to complete before we can turn our attention back to precious metals in a serious way. In other words, if the euro breaks support and the dollar reverses higher we should anticipate that euro could fall on a cyclical basis all the way back to its base!!

    A review of the Euro chart on a monthly will help explain why this is so. Just note the rhythmic rise and fall of price and the size of each primary move (whether up or down) along the euro’s trajectory path. These moves can exceed 30 cents in either direction so the cycles are gigantic. They can also be devastating if you have made the wrong bet on precious metals.

    My advice? Well it is to just wait a few days and see what happens before making an impulsive bet one way or another. I don’t know what will happen with certainty and neither does anyone else. All I can tell you for sure is this is a critical juncture you bulls had better pay close attention to if you want to keep your accounts whole.

    Best of luck with your trading.

  26. Nada

    Swing Low in gold. DCL in on .5 fib as predicted. Sure is interesting how it was off the August low. Super cycle my ass πŸ™‚

    With that said, it’s FOMC decision day – swing could easily be wiped out and woukd wait for close over 10ema to confirm.

    1. Gary Post author

      I tend to think this is the bounce I was looking for to create the pivot to construct the down trend line. Gold should still have one more lower low and at least reach the 38% retracement.

      This would form as a bear flag as the dollar completes it’s DCL. It hasn’t broken the down trend line yet so no confirmation that the recent bounce is a final DCL. Plus the megaphone trend line is a little bit lower than the recent bottom. It’s at about 90.50. If I was going to trade currencies, which I’m not, that’s the spot where I would try to go long the dollar.

      1. Pedestrian

        Yes Gary, its true that the dollar has not broken out on the daily chart. I am not able to read that chart with a good sense of bullishness and the truth is the dollar still looks like it could fall quite a bit lower when viewed on a long term level. A weekly for example.

        On the other hand the megaphone is more or less complete if you draw your channel using the candles. For insight I still think its the Euro that is telling us what will happen next.

    2. Pedestrian

      Nada, when you say “swing low in gold” are you referring to the decline between the dates of September 8th and the 19th and suggesting that price will now turn North again? It so happens I have also been waiting for a bounce back however I think its only going to be an echo move that fails to reach the prior high of 1361 before turning back down again. You seem a lot more bullish but I’m not sure why.

  27. Steffmeister

    Have you guys already forgotten about Geopolitical Violence peaks, what happened yesterday?

    Looking at moving average, is for average analysts …

  28. Gary Post author

    I can’t tell if the market will drop into a half cycle low after the Fomc meeting, but we got a new high on day 20 yesterday. That isn’t how left translated cycles behave. The odds of this being a fourth daily cycle are now very slim. Any new high from today on would push this daily cycle right translated.

    1. Pedestrian

      I don’t know either. (but I wish I did).

      There is a bug in the ointment. Check out this chart of the Nikkei. This chart is arguably the most important when it comes to reading the Yen and it is the Yen that dictates golds ultimate direction. Well anyway, the Nikkei is once again above the 20,000 resistance area level that I was talking about for months.

      More importantly it has come right up to its own resistance line and MUST break through if my theory that gold will remain in a bear market is to survive intact. Should the Nikkei fall back down then all bets are off again.

      Draw in the top resistance channel line using the peaks at the top of the chart during the months of June and September this year. You can readily see we are at the inflection point right now (today). Something big is brewing and no doubt the Fed statement will be the deciding factor. If stock markets fall then gold is going to be game-on once more.

      Nikkei on a daily chart. You need to watch the Nikkei to understand the Yen’s next move.

    1. Pedestrian

      Good points Jake. I appreciate you guys who are paying attention to dates and moons. There was also an odd occurrence of a large earthquake in Mexico today too that came EXACTLY 32 years to the day after the devastating quake in 1985. Say what you want about Martin Armstrong but one thing he gave us is the gift to the understanding cycles with his discovery of the importance of Pi dates.

      And this quake came very close to a 31.4 year Pi cycle which is pretty interesting to me.

      And in case nobody noticed we had a sharp 17% spike in volatility (VIX futures) yesterday just before the close. So somebody is betting big this might be a bad day in markets. Gold meanwhile is up 7.70 at this time but has not yet broken above its hourly chart resistance. The dollar looks ready to bounce and if it does a move above .92 will constitute a breakout of the falling channel.

      Should be a really interesting day.

      1. Steffmeister

        This happened yesterday Nada, a geopolitical violence peak so to speak …

        will Gold turn here or continue downwards?

        The ongoing powerstruggle will continue into October, the descisions that will affect markets has not been made yet.

  29. Pedestrian

    Today may well be the most important date for gold investors that we have seen all year.

    I don’t want to over-dramatize the consequences but if today is the day that the dollar rises and euro breaks down we may be at the start of a new bear cycle in precious metals that will go on for many more months if not all of 2018. So this is a pivotal moment given we are at the inflection point and it is one that may finally settle the debate over whether we are still in a bull or a bear market for gold.

    Seatbelts people. Get your crash helmets ready.

  30. Gary Post author

    So far literally everything I’ve been looking for is playing out pretty much as I envisioned.

    The dollar has broken through the 200 week moving average, but the euro has run into resistance at the 120.50 zone. There is still a little leeway for the dollar to fall a little bit further to actually tag the megaphone trend line. That comes in at 90.50. The Fed will stand pat today. Perhaps that is the push for the dollar to drop one more time and actually tag the trend line before completing a DCL and ICL bottom.

    Gold has been following the short cycle scenario almost to the letter. If the dollar dips a bit more into a deeper ICL that would give us the bounce I’m looking for to drag everyone in prematurely and also construct the cycle trend line.

    Oil completed it’s YCL back in June as expected. Not in August like some where calling for. The energy stocks are now in the process of pushing the weekly charts back to overbought on the stochastics. This is where I want to sell. Into overbought conditions, not into oversold conditions like most retail traders do.

    If you want to make money in the markets you have to do the opposite of what most people do.

    And stocks are starting the vertical phase of the bubble just as expected. The only question is whether we’ll get a 3-4 day dip into a half cycle low after the FOMC meeting or whether we just continue up from here.

    The only thing left is to see whether or not this turns out to be a counter trend move in bitcoin and the bubble continues to deflate.

    Folks no matter how loudly people protest bitcoin is a ponzi scheme. There is no barrier to entry into the market. As we are seeing tons of crypto currencies are starting to spring up. At some point the block chain technology will become public and then everyone can create their own currency. I could create a new crypto and call it the Savage.

        1. Americano

          Ped – not accurate as stated in article “limitations”.
          That number consists of wallets exchanges worldwide own too. Coinbase, Gemini, Bitstamp, Bitfinex , dozens elsewhere.
          Total clickbait by Zerohedge or have they morphed to BitcoinHedge lol?
          PS – as I stated earlier – Bitcoin doesn’t even count this year no institutional ramps. But next year Its starting – Ex-CEO of Morgan Stanley John Mack. See ya @ $15K boys –

        2. roadrunner

          What??? Now Jamie Dimon is right on bitcoin? i suppose you would prefer people forget that just a few days ago you said jamie Dimon was talking down bitcoin to let the wall street folks buy in. In fact you said it was obvious…and now, today, you argue the opposite.
          ah yes the history of now.

    1. Americano

      Jake – its pre-mined and bank owned. There literally are billions of them with no limit. They fancy as a way to substitute SWIFT.
      When “normy” media write articles kinda close to reality – I’ll say there is a bubble. But that won’t happen till LATE 2018 at the earliest. Nobody has a clue about Bitcoin yet. Even Kyle Bass just said last week he missed it for not taking it seriously but it’s definitely legit & market will be in trillions. Bitcoin is EASY to dismiss – there is EVERY reason for smart people to do so unless they set their ego aside & figure it as Bass said. I think Bass actually took it seriously when the Red Chinese did lol as they know it can massively mess up their plans so hopefully they will ban it there!

  31. MegaMind

    If your post is more than 3 lines …its going to be ignored… I have been trained by Twitter… so don’t write your life story…

    1. Christian

      YES! Lol! And Opinions are welcomed, just don’t write a freakin’ essay about it because we don’t care!

  32. JJHarmen

    Early today, pedestrian brought us these words of wisdom:

    September 20, 2017 at 1:04 am
    See what a difference it makes when the trolls are not posting.

    Since then, nearly 80% of the words posted on this site have been courtesy of, you guessed it, PEDESTRIAN who is now running all out with his endless verbal diarrhea.

    1. Christian

      +10 for JJ who totally gets it!

      -100 points for Gary who on the other hand STILL doesn’t get it..! Aaaaaargh

      +1 for Primetime for calling it jealousy, Lol! That made me giggle a bit πŸ™‚

      1. Bigdaddy

        Hahaha! Pedo can’t help himself. According to him, this site is one of the world’s top one hundred thousand most visited. He thinks the whole world is hanging on his every word. Wonder when he will be starting his own sub service? Too funny.

        1. Gary Post author

          And you wonder why he defends himself.

          Ped said he would tone it down. You will also big daddy. First and last warning.

    2. Gary Post author

      Folks Ped hasn’t insulted anyone today. He said he would tone it down and he is. If you think I’m going to ban someone just because he disagrees with mine or your opinion on the markets you are sadly mistaken.

      1. Christian

        No he hasn’t, I give you that. But it’s not just the insults.. it’s also the constant and excessive VERBIAGE of someone who likes to over-indulge and who desperately wants to be heard that’s a bit of a turn off.

        I’m getting tired of scrolling through it — my finger hurts!

  33. Gary Post author

    We could be setting up the perfect trap if stocks dip down into a half cycle low after the FOMC statement, and gold bounces.

    Traders will buy gold and short stocks. Exactly the opposite of what they should do. You need to buy the dip in stocks if it occurs and you don’t want to buy a bounce in gold, not with the dollar this late in a daily cycle and the yen in a failed daily cycle.

  34. Christian

    Definitely NOT A DCL in Gold folks!

    I mentioned that Gold and Metals were over extended below their 10DMA and that we were due for a bounce, wave b in this case. We’ll likely tag the underside of the 10DMA and roll over – wave c – into a DCL.

    1. Bigdaddy

      I think you are right Christian. You make lot of calls that eventually work out. We should team up and show these guys how it’s done.

    2. Troy

      Agreed and this lines up exactly to what Gary laid out. And anyone who bought gold/miners thinking it was the DCL can now sell on this bounce and buy TQQQ on the dip.

        1. Nada

          Yeah if we use the entire move, then .5 fib will be a likely target. I am not confident in gold until we get a close over the 10ema. Short cycle, bearish COTs, dollar cycle and balance sheet reduction is quite a scary outlook for gold. With that said, sentiment has been cleansed.

          1. Gary Post author

            Well not exactly. At the bottom two days ago short term sentiment on GLD still hadn’t dropped below 20% bulls, and the 20 day moving average was still above 60% bulls.

            Those levels are quite mild for a DCL. Usually DCL’s create some real fear. Traders become afraid to pull the trigger. We haven’t really seen that yet. People are still more afraid of missing the next rally rather than having to endure a deeper drawdown.

            I’d be cautious right now that gold may be setting up an ABC correction.

  35. Bigdaddy

    SOB! LABD is pissing me off this morning, Do i sell at a loss and regret it because i am usually right with my initial call or hang on and average down? I am a victim of my own success.

    1. roadrunner

      if you think you will be right but just entered the trade early, then hold. If you think you might be wrong, then cut your losses and wait for a better set up.

      1. Bigdaddy

        Thanks for the advice roadrunner, My problem is that every time i think i got it wrong and fold, it turns out i had it right in the first place. If Gary is right, we may see a SM dump after the FOMC meeting so i might just average down on LABD.

  36. AT

    out of ERX with some profit – I bought that before my subscription expired back in August;

    Looking now to buy JNUG, but waiting for a dip under 19.

    1. AT

      Gary was a bit early in buying ERX, and his advice to hold was good … with a few months patience the trade ended up as a winner – my average was under 27.

        1. AT

          no, not going to get in ERX for now, unless a really good opportunity will make me change my mind; I’m not expert in energy, it can go down fast anytime in my opinion; I only bought because Gary recommend it at some point;

          I’m just happy I could get out with profit, and plan to focus on gold trades JNUG and DUST

      1. roadrunner

        The original purchase was $29.50? And that was a 100% of the energy portfolio. So you must have added to your position at lower price(s). I don’t think the model portfolio could do that as it is 100%. Now the trade might work out, as it did for you. However how many months has that money been ‘dead’? Would it have been better to take a loss early on and then hope to get a better entry lower?
        At least it worked out for you, but perhaps there are still others waiting to get back to even.

        1. Gary Post author

          You are forgetting that in real time one has no idea if you would get a lower entry or even if you would have the mental capital left to pull the trigger.

        2. AT

          roadrunner, my average was a bit better than the 29, around 26.70s, I bought a bit later after Gary’s call and averaged down once; again, I’m just happy to get out and count it as a green trade

    2. Troy

      Sold some more ERX myself today to raise funds for more TQQQ. It has been a nice run the past month and don’t want to get greedy. I am still holding half my position for when Gary sells his.

  37. JJHarmen

    Bigdaddy, in case you missed it, you got a warning from the Boss man himself. He’s going to reign in Ped so take heed.

      1. Lenapowich

        I don’t see why Bigdaddy (or anyone else) should be chastised. So, Pedestrian is now forgiven for all the ugly things he has said to so many others without so much as a single warning? That’s hardly fair.

  38. Spanky

    Probably more important than the Fed’s announcement is the BoJ’s, which IIRC is due tomorrow. How convenient no?

    I remember the announcement for QE3 by the Fed. All of the goldbugs thought gold was headed for the moon that day, but it reacted extremely meekly. The very next day the BoJ announced that it was absolutely blowing up its balance sheet (an order of magnitude more than the Fed on a relative basis), and the rest is history. The BoJ single-handedly sent commodities and gold and silver into the toilet IMO and conversely reignited the long-dormant carry trade making the yen the funding currency of choice for stock market speculators worldwide.

    So whatever happens today, there is a decent chance the BoJ could exacerbate, or reverse, today’s move.

  39. Spanky

    Being a pessimist, I could see gold going all the way back to the 200 dma in the next 6 weeks, as Gary has mentioned as a possible scenario.

    However, it’s possible gold forms a triangle consolidation. Will really depend on how much of a rebound we get, if any once a local bottom is achieved. One dream scenario for longs would be a triangle consolidation with gold hitting the apex as the yen bottoms out in 4-6 weeks.

    Again, I am more inclined to think gold gets hammered, because well, that’s just what it does typically, but I personally wouldn’t bet the farm on it.

  40. Goild


    Naturally I am biased to do long trades, then I force myself to go short to try to balance.
    Today the majority, about 26 round trip trades, were on JNUG.
    For my trouble I go paid $849 and I am done for the day.
    On the second 5 minutes candle at 9:35 AM, I had 2K JNUG shares, as the red increased I bought, more and more JNUG shares to 9K. At some point I had lost about $1500.
    I need to be careful as one day I would be, one more time, totally wrong and can easily have a $5K-$10K loss.

  41. Spanky

    Can we get a seventh close in a row above the bollinger bands on the Dow daily chart?

    This is absolutely surreal action. No natural market behaves like this, sorry. Not even the NASDAQ bubble in 1999 was like this. At least back then there was natural volatility on the rise (the VIX actually trended up from 1995 to 2000), which actually allowed the NASDAQ to get achieve its vertical move.

    In contrast, this is more like a continuous grind higher. 500 pt moves up in the Dow followed by 1-2% corrections at most.

    I think the reason for this is the moral hazard created by the Fed–i.e., the explicit Fed put articulated by Bernanke back when QE2 was initiated. In a world of infinite liquidity, why would or should the stock market ever go down in nominal terms?

  42. Goild

    Nada, yes πŸ™‚

    I joined the SMT last October. Gold was falling and started to look for the bottom; along with Steff was on the first to call the bottom. Built 2 NUGT lots or 4K shares, to 10K shares. Early on February, on a Monday, Don posted he had sold his Silver. I had the gut feeling that that Monday was the peak and sold all my shares with a profit of about $70K. On the side day trading I had made about $25K for a total profit of $95K by mid February. Then euphoria, overconfidence, and stupidity came in. On 2/27 on a horrible falling knife I lost $33K, and there were more falling knifes where I lost a total of $75K.
    Since then work of the ANT/BEE started, there were a couple of swing trades with +10K profit.
    As of today I recovered the money lost and since October I am at +++$99.1K of profit, about to enter the first tier of $100K a year or more.
    The challenge is to keep the work of the BEEANT up.
    Good trading to all.

  43. Lenapowich

    I just sold all my GDXJ shares with a decent profit. Wish I had sold when it was above $37. However, as much as I can’t stand the Pedestrian persona, I am afraid that he will be right . Better to be safe than sorry.

  44. Anthonyo

    Hello ,

    There is some murmurs in a very small minority of predictors of the market that a great vertical fall coming in Stocks between now and end of October, one which will be very surprising to most analysts and retail investors.

    Just saying.

      1. Anthonyo

        Hi Christian,

        How are you? Nice of you to holler my friend. I have been on/in a self-imposed exile for a while; back now as the feel in the air is just ominous.
        Perhaps the solar eclipse after-effects ar enot done yet. In fact, I think more “S” is coming.

  45. JJHarmen

    The dollar looks poised to make a big move but which way is anyone’s guess. I will go with down which should push up gold which should push up GDX. How’s that for ‘technial’ analysis and all without a single chart.

  46. JJHarmen

    The earthquake that hit Mexico city has been very destructive with many dead. Very sad for people there. I hope Trump offers some support.

    They tell us that we don’t have to worry here in southern Cali as the Mexican quake supposedly does not increase our risk. Still, the threat is always in the back of one’s mind.

  47. primetime

    Now I understand, you are from Cali.

    I have bought a lot of land in western Nevada that I expect to be ocean front property very soon! The are lying to you about them quakes, fake news buddy.

  48. Pedestrian

    5 minutes to the FOMC minutes. I have my Pepto Bismal (c) and Rolaids (c) at the ready plus a good crying hanky in case Janet ruins my day and sends the dollar spiraling down. Otherwise all good. See y’all at the finish line.

  49. Spanky

    Janet will be opening her maw soon. Probably cause another spike.

    BoJ tomorrow might be the bigger announcement, IMO.

  50. mexican

    Gold just dropped 10 bucks on right on time and now will it drop below 1300? What happens tonight will set the stage.

  51. Spanky

    This balance sheet reduction announcement should be killing gold (maybe it still will).

    But I can’t help but think this could be the opposite to the situation after Fed announced QE3, where goldbugs thought gold would head to the moon. BoJ could be key.

  52. Anthonyo

    Nana Yellen may just upturn the whole apple cart this time around.

    It could mean “Watch Out Below” time.

  53. Christian

    Well, I was ALMOST bang on..! Metals and Miners came very close to tagging their respective 10DMA and rolled over.. DCL coming up folks!

    In the meantime, this amateur continues to make money on his DUST trade πŸ™‚ F*ck me.

    1. Christian

      GDX β€” getting close to the 50DMA and 50%Fib. Thinking I might cash out and switch over to NUGT/JNUG.

      What do you guys think?

  54. Bigdaddy

    Sold 3000 TECS at 9.24 for an $840 profit. Haven’t decided to do with LABD yet. It’s getting close to break the break even point.

      1. bigglaze

        Win some, lose some. I was kinda hoping you were right Nada. There’s always next time! Kudos though to Pedestrian and Gary were both right!

  55. Pedestrian

    We now have a confirmed break down of the euro channel for the second time since September 14th. The day is far from over though. The entire spike lower could still be reversed by days end and of course as we all know it is the closing numbers that really count.

    It looks like the charts were sending the correct signals after all. As I mentioned already, I really was not sure which way this was going to break but was quite relieved not to get my ass kicked today! As it happened the response in the metals sector was fairly muted so even a worst case situation would not have hurt too badly.

    Congratulations to anyone who found value in my posts last evening and made the decision to exit metals before the Fed meeting. It’s often better to err on the side of caution when events like this take place.

    We have formally entered a tight money policy (compared with the past) and this should strengthen dollars as the months go by and the Fed slowly unwinds its balance sheet while ending the unprecedented infusions we are so comfortable with.

    This means that dollars will be bid as they are going to gradually come into shorter supply. We are seeing that being reflected in the charts already as dollars and euros reverse their trends. It really only means caution is warranted with precious metals as they usually decline in sympathy with Euros.

  56. Steffmeister

    crap got monkey hammered by the old grayhaired lady Janet Jelltsin …

    100% fake imo! Scaling in a second time today, one more to go, the C wave is far from complete.

  57. Bigdaddy

    And the SM reverses as the “buy the dip” crowd jumps back in . So predictable. Who knows maybe this time they will get their asses handed to them.

  58. Spanky

    Most of my silver miners are just slightly up right now.

    This was the most telegraphed FOMC ever, IMO.

    Again, I think the real move will come after the BoJ spews its BS tonight. The BoJ is the wild card. Everyone expects them to stand pat on monetary policy.

  59. bigglaze

    Yeah I dunno… It looks grim but I think this is really just a setback, maybe even a miner one (see what I did there???). The HUI is only down 2%. Depends on your style I guess. I don’t really trade. I’m more of a long hauler.

  60. Spanky

    Nice scary gigantic outside day down in GDX today. Conventional wisdom would suggest more follow through to the downside.

    If we take out today’s high by Friday, it will have been a bear trap.

  61. Spanky

    Yen is getting hammered today. Why the reaction today, I have no idea, as the Fed has been telegraphing this move for months.

    Maybe the BoJ announces even more QE tonight.

    1. Spanky

      Not true. Last FOMC it shot up.

      Let’s see what the BoJ has to say. If they were to even hint at tightening, the yen is going to reverse hard. But the odds of them actually tightening are slim to none. Afterall, it’s been the ECB and BoJ who have more than compensated for the Fed’s hawkishness over the last few years.

  62. Spanky

    FWIW, my portfolio of silver miners is up about 2% today. Maybe it’s just noise and it’s just the pause before another leg down, but it is better than being down 10% today.

    1. Nada

      Did you get out of SPXU or you still holding? It makes me sick too that these markets see no real correction, but I guess its clear not to fight the trend.

      1. Bigdaddy

        Well. Nada, i guess i could bull shit you like some of the others here who say they got out of a bad position in pre-market or that they are day traders who don’t want to reveal their trades so as to prevent others from riding on the coat tails of success. But the truth is that i still am holding SPXU.

        1. Nada

          That’s what I like about you BD – you are honest about your positions. Many hindsight traders in here that are always on the right side” of the trade.

  63. Christian

    GDX/DUST — FLAG FORMATION on the 15 minute Chart.

    More downside to be had. I’ll stick around and see if I can squeeze one more $ out of this trade πŸ™‚

  64. butch

    Sold my Nov 49 oil calls posted on Sept 5th for a ROI of 65%. Rolling ALL of it into Dec 1330 gold call options. Gold retraced to the triple top breakout area, 38% fib, ready to test 1375, then 1585
    Quote from”GOILD”
    ” we were told to never miss a bull market”

    1. Nada

      Congrats butch, I remember your oil contract. Like that you are rolling it “ALL” into Dec 1330 gold – LONG and STRONG.

  65. JJHarmen

    Fresh new highs for the S&P today. Trump will be pleased (even though he has nothing to do with it). Those of us playing the miners must be out of our minds when there is so many other sectors that only know how to go up.

    1. Pedestrian

      Yes AT. That’s my plan tomorrow on a bounce. Just keep in mind I usually exit these 3X trades the same day so its no marriage! πŸ™‚

      1. Pedestrian

        Just a note on JNUG. Volume today was almost double yesterdays 10 million shares. Price is sitting right on the 60 DMA and CCI looks to have bottomed on short term charts but not yet turned up. It looks like it might need another day to hit the lower Bollinger band. So a buy, yes, but conditional based on its behavior overnight and tomorrow morning. I didn’t rush into it.

  66. Gary Post author

    I’m going to again caution patience. This isn’t the bottom. We won’t get the bottom until sometime next week.

    This just confirmed the short cycle scenario. The final ICL isn’t going to come until mid to late Oct.

    1. Pedestrian

      Perfect call on gold dropping to 1300 Gary. Well done. Avi’s people meanwhile are “sitting tight” with huge losses.

      1. Gary Post author

        The short cycle has been confirmed today. The metals are going to fall back into the basing pattern as stocks begin the vertical phase of the bubble.

        Once gold breaks 1300 we will have the last confirmation.

        1. Pedestrian

          Maybe not material but gold futures dropped to 1299.50 today on a spike low. Your call came within a half buck of the days bottom. I think you were the only one with that prediction btw. Pattern on the 5 minute chart looks like a bearish pennant forming and could imply a steeper drop by tomorrow. We are perhaps only half way down. Despite my inclination to buy a potential bounce in JNUG (mentioned above) this development gives me pause to reconsider.

          1. Nada

            Ped, check tradingview.com. You can get a free account where you can actually draw on the chart. Posting blank charts do not really help show you analysis.

          2. Pedestrian

            No time for that. I do my technicals raw off the screen. I just figure if anyone is interested enough they will follow the explanation and plug in their own lines so why impose my version on them. It’s only the technical people who care anyway.

            Everyone else just uses page-down on my posts! LOL!!!

          3. Pedestrian

            Yeah, sorry about the 5 minute chart. I use them all day though. Cannot trade without them. Since I posted it we had a break-out (upwards) of the triangle pattern. So a good possibility we see a full retrace of today’s decline.

            I am not all bearish by the way. As an aside (and don’t repeat this to anyone else around here) but I think gold is going to make one more run at its prior high. My belief is still that it will come in shy of 1400 dollars but it will exceed the 2016 peak.

            I know, I have said this already many times last week. But the gold chart does not look complete to me. Maybe this bounce we are going to get will take us back up there. Just have to watch and see. Gold still has energy for a good rebound in my books.

          4. Nada


            Yeah I don’t see this stretched cycle, and I think we move higher as well. It’s good to stay fluid. You made reference to a higher high previously so I didn’t think you were bearish mid term.

          5. Pedestrian

            You are right. Remember the last time we saw the COT’s at these extreme levels was back around June 2016 at the peak of the gold run that had lasted almost 6 months.

            Anyway, once gold hit its final top in July that year it took 14 long weeks before it finally cracked and took a plunge back below 1300 dollars. That was more than three months for the energy of the bulls to slowly evaporate until the realization came that this was not going to be the “big one” after all.

            I don’t know that we will see such a long grind across the top this time but neither do I believe this is all over just yet. The process last year, if you recall, just wore everyone down. Bulls and bears alike were hobbled and exhausted from the long wait until we eventually had a price crash.

            Anyway, when you get this much speculative interest as we have seen recently there is more than enough steam in the engine to push prices right back up once more. And I am betting they run higher than the last high. I just don’t know how long that might take but am willing to bet on it anyway while I wait for the big drop I believe is still coming.

    2. Nada

      So if gold makes a new high, you will re-consider your early ICL theory? Obviously there will be some sort of bounce, but the next cycle may be left-translated. I am not so sure though. It seems like everyone has just “given” up on the bull.

      1. Pedestrian

        Yes Nada, “They” sure are quiet on some of the other sites I visit. Like a morgue out there. Hardly even any gnashing of teeth today. Maybe its quiet acceptance. Or maybe people are just hoping they wake up tomorrow and it all reverses back to bullish overnight. There is still the BOJ minutes tomorrow and Germany’s election results comes in next Sunday night.

        World has not ended yet.

        1. Americano

          They’re reading up on Bitcoin pray God !
          Sorry can’t help it ( I still own phys btw) just trying to save Souls before 2018 !

        2. Nada

          No, I am actually happy about that. It means sentiment is being reset – there were way too many bulls before. I am glad that others are posting the viewpoints, as it keeps my expectations grounded. I do not necessarily agree with some of the longer term bearish calls, but I respect them.

  67. Goild

    Gold can go to the Moon in a New Moon.
    Kim Jong-in rockets can boost it.
    There is no more time Japanese PM Aby said.
    Wait for a New Moon, 10/19, 11/18, 12/17 …

    1. Gary Post author

      Actually it’s the full moon that often sees a bottom in gold, not the new moon.

      The full moon isn’t due until Oct. 5th.

      NK has already launched two rockets. Neither one had any effect on gold or the stock market. By now everyone knows this is only a bluff.

  68. Goild

    I remember how someone described Saddam Hussein. He engaged into a trade.
    And he went against the market, had several opportunities to get out of the trade first with a small gain, then with a little loss, but was reluctant and stubborn. and finally he lost everything.

Comments are closed.