221 thoughts on “FOCUS ON STOCKS FOR THE NEXT 6-8 MONTHS

  1. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary, you are omitting from your review:
    – the leading action of FTSE100
    – SKEW 145 on a low but VIX but higher than the VIX at the prior top on Sep1,
    – maybe most importantly, the action of SM yesterday after the release of the macro reports: small increase to new top of indexes on HUUGE volumes, indicating beginning of … distribution, smart money unloading to an extatic public.
    I thus think we need to have one more leg down (just like FTSE now) before the bubble begins.

    PS: a no-news FOMC has the chance of delivering 2 contrarian events considering the no-rate hike outcome and a dovish statement to come: a rising USD and a correction in SM.

  2. Pedestrian

    A: So what happened last week?
    B: You mean besides the bulls being dead wrong Mr Pedestrian?
    A: Yes of course. Besides those guys being wrong.
    B: Looks like one or two of them had a very bad week.
    A: They sure are quiet lately. Nursing injured pride perhaps?
    B: Not possible Mr P, they have no pride.
    A: I tried to warn them.
    B: Yes, but you were wrong twice before getting it right. Boy calls wolf story.
    A: Hey, I object to that. I was always right. Just early is all.
    B: Next time try to be more diplomatic.
    A: Pretend I am their friend?
    B: Yeah, that will backfire!!!

    So what actually happened?
    JDST and DUST are both up over 18% since September 7th.
    GDX and GDXJ are down about 5% in the past week.
    XAU and HUI are down 5 and 7% respectively
    Some gold and silver stocks were beaten bloody and senseless in the process
    NUGT and JNUG lost about 12% each

    Just a taste of what’s to come? Probably. Next week may bring a rise in metals though and there will be a chance to recover from recent losses in miners. I think the gold price will go back up and retest the highs. There is minor support levels coming in on platinum, silver and gold for example that, if they hold will offer a bounce back. So the bulls might get some relief and another chance to decide what side of the boat they will dive off.

    A: Should be fun. I can hardly wait.
    B: Don’t gloat Mr Pedestrian. They already hate you.
    A: Yeah, that had nothing to do with gold though!

    1. Gary Post author

      Or are they could have just listened to me. Instead of trying to call the top almost 100 points too early I exited with in pennies of the exact top.

      When the bulls tried to call the bottom prematurely this week I’ve been warning them to stay on the sidelines. We may have a slight bounce next week but it will probably only serve to form the pivot for the cycle downtrend line. As I’ve been saying all along the daily cycle low has to at least reach the 38% Fibonacci retracement and possibly the 50% retracement. If gold breaks back below 1300 on this cycle decline then we almost certainly have the short cycle scenario in play.

    1. Robert

      Hi Gary,

      more an more high profile people and organizations/banks (Deutsche Bank, Goldman, Yellen) are saying that stocks evaluations are high and the market is due for a correction.

      In the last phase of this bull run do you expect some (more than 1) (mild or hard) corrections?

      Do you expect the announcement from the FED this week of unwinding the balance sheet to start a correction (mild or hard)?

      Thanks.

  3. jacob2

    TOP

    Coming around to believing in the blow off top (positioned that way) simple because nobodies talking about it. Mainstream financial commentary ( that I respect) says we are in a low growth low inflation world and that the bull will just fade into the sunset sometime next year…. because this bull is old and it’s time. However, agree with you that every bull worth it’s salt ends up “overheating” (inflation) and we haven’t seen that yet. Personally, Don’t see anyway around an inflationary impulse in a bull thats gone on this long.

    Gary …. question: In the blow off top scenario is it only to be the strong that get stronger? JUST tech, financials, and perhaps biotech to the moon? Is catch up by late cyclicals (oil, industrials, industrial metals) in the cards ? How broad the sector participation in a blow off top ?

    Thanks

    Thanks

    1. Gary Post author

      I expect commodities in general to stay stuck in their trading ranges during a blow off top in stocks. Maybe a slow drift upwards, but I’m not really looking for commodities to take off until the buying panic in stocks is finished.

      1. jacob2

        Still have hopes for oil and basic materials as I think we heat up before we roll over. Already at full employment. Bull end game may look something like this: oil, material price increases > higher inflation > higher budget deficits > higher interest rates > stagflation > recession > worse?

        Thanks for the feedback will stay somewhat diversified for the last inning

  4. doctorzais

    Gary, bitcoin has not topped and even if it has, it will recover shortly. They don’t run on cycles the length of anything we have seen before, they are much much shorter and continue to be even shorter as days pass. 50% corrections overnight have happened in certain cryptocurrencies. The traders of this are not the same old sell at bottoms type.

  5. bigglaze

    I’m wondering… now that Jose has been upgraded from a tropical storm to a category 1 hurricane and might his the eastern sea board this week, this might possibly help gold?

    1. Gary Post author

      Nice try. You had to dig back 6 years to find a wrong call.

      As you so conveniently forget to mention no one at that time was expecting the stock market 4 year cycle to stretch and evolve into a 7 YCL.

      QE was a global experiment that had never been tried before. Everyone under estimated how far it could push things beyond what used to be considered “normal”.

  6. Gary Post author

    Here’s why I think bitcoin is a ponzi scheme.

    Real currencies have value based on the productive capacity of the country issuing them and its ability to tax.

    Gold has real value because it is rare with unique qualities found in no other element on earth. It also has use as jewelry and in a few industrial applications.

    Bitcoin only has value as determined by the speculative mood of its investors at the moment. There is no real use for bitcoin other than as an item to speculate on.

    There is no barrier to entry (as we have seen). Anyone can create their own cryptocurreny out of thin air and start peddling it to the masses. It has no use even as a viable currency as it is way to volatile to function as a currency.

    Just like we saw hundreds of worthless tech companies with no chance of ever making a dime spring up in 2000 at the top of the bubble, we are now seeing new crypto currencies sprouting in rapid fire succession as people try to cash in on the get rich quick ponzi scheme.

    Once Bitcoin or maybe even one of the other cyrpto’s crash and burn, people will come back to their senses and see that we’ve been buying tulip bulbs all over again.

    1. Americano

      Gary, what price does Bitcoin gotta be before you go “Ooops” ?
      Jamie Dimon won’t short it because last week he said it could go to $100,000.
      Just wondering. Too bad you are as dogmatic about it as you are as the charts are minus the manipulation of the banksters that always seem to foil the $20 “surges” in gold.
      John Bollinger is now following Bitcoin.
      https://mobile.twitter.com/bbands/status/908391369005080576
      Peter Brandt is in @$3150
      https://mobile.twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/908887045031976960

      & Kyle Bass just admitted he was wrong about it for not really considering it thoroughly when he first heard about it but that changed.

  7. spectrum2105

    Speculation involves two things:

    A) Some sort of asset of – houses, farm land, oil under land, rare yellow metal, an ownership piece of a company, tulip bulbs, a financial derivative tied to something physical.

    B) The belief that there exists a greater fool than you who will buy your stuff so you can get out with a profit.

    Bitcoin just takes speculating to its logical extreme by eliminating A altogether. 25% of bitcoins are “mined” by computer farms housed in old abandoned industrial warehouses in Inner Mongolia.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/13/business/bitcoin-mine-china.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Ftechnology&action=click&contentCollection=technology&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=sectionfront

    It consists purely of speculators speculating on the speculation of other speculators.

          1. Pedestrian

            LOL! Yes definitely dumber. I think its a proven fact. In Greek times and earlier people were comfortable memorizing entire tracts of books and documents word for word. There were people who could recite the bible from cover to cover. Memory muscles that are exercised grow stronger and create more connections within the brain which allows for more complex thought processes. Seems a far cry from today where the average Joe Bloke does not even know his own phone number because the phone does all the work for him. We have allowed computer systems to do all our memory work for us freeing up so-called leisure time or space for other endeavors. I am not sure its progress though. Entire populations are turning stupid before our eyes. And developed countries seem to suffer the worst effects. Is it any wonder Asian kids and those from India beat the pants off their Western counterparts in the education and knowledge department? It’s why we have TV shows like “Are you smarter than a 6th grader”.

  8. Bob

    When they don’t need your labour; and they don’t need your brains; you have to wonder why you exist. The only answer I’ve been able to come up with is, they need a market.

  9. Pedestrian

    Looking forward into the next week I see gold slowly bouncing back up towards its September 8th top at 1361 but whether we go higher than that peak is another matter. I don’t think we will have that answer by this coming Friday the 22nd of September though. We will have to wait until the following Monday once the election results in Germany are in before gold will make that final call. What happens in Germany is critical to golds future and much of the market for that matter. It is because whoever leads that country will have a hand in European fiscal and monetary policy that shapes all the continent and I dare say, the fate of much of the globe as well. The wrong leader could cause considerable damage to the Euro, EU debt outlook and much more that will impact directly and indirectly on USD strength. So lets look forward to a grind up this week for gold before slowly closing the gap that was created Sept 08 between the 1345 and 1350 level. More importantly, start thinking now about how to place your bets for the Monday that follows as this is where the rubber really meets the road. Put another way, don’t leave yourself exposed Sept 25th should German elections and the (new or incumbent) Chancellors first public statement cause concern in currency markets where the action almost always appears first. My plan at this moment is to lean long-gold into the end of the week with a likely short initiated late Friday. but we have to see how charts behave between now and then before making any serious commitment this far off.

    Note unfilled gap in gold on September 8th –
    https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=h1

    1. Christian

      “My plan at this moment is to lean long-gold into the end of the week with a likely short initiated late Friday.”

      Except that you’ve already initiated a SHORT remember?

      1. Christian

        Posted on September 13th:

        “We have a technical breakdown on the euro just moments ago. Dollar/euro reversal is here.
        Gold is likely done for the year. Going short today. Wish me well.” — PEDO

        1. Bigdaddy

          Hahaha! Nice on Christian. Gary has Pedo flipping and flopping so often between going short, then long, the short, etc, that he can’t keep track of it himself.

      2. Pedestrian

        You don’t play counter trend rally’s?

        At this moment the chart suggests there could be more than a 30 dollar rise in gold in order to close the gap and see a retest of the 1361 high. I could sit on my hands and just let that pass by but it seems like a wasted opportunity.

        I don’t really know how you trade Christian or what methods you use. If you open a long trade at the same time you have core short-positions it amounts to a hedge but also an opportunity for gain on the reversals that are inevitable as rain.

        Maybe I’m wasting my breathe with you. You talk like an amateur.

        1. Pedestrian

          OK, so now I am past by initial impatience with you Christian, maybe I can put some perspective on this trade that makes sense in the real world. A couple months back you, Gary and the subscribers here bought ERX which is a triple leveraged energy ETF.

          Almost as soon as you bought it the thing began to fall from your entry point of 29.50 and recently you were still holding when it had fallen below 22 dollars meaning you had sustained a loss of some 25%.

          Another trader would have placed a stop to prevent this from happening and would have perhaps exited after the first 5% decline. But you guys are proud and insistent on your correctness despite the considerable draw down.

          Whatever man, that’s your bag.

          The thing is you also had the choice to hedge your exposure as it fell which is a second strategy you chose not to exercise. In other words, you might have held both a long and a short position simultaneously during the fall to reduce the impact of a loss whose value was still unknown.

          Options traders do this all the time with success to reduce risk on trades.

          My objection with the trading style you guys employ is that you enter trades too hot with a very heavy percentage of your portfolio, you don’t use any stops whatsoever and then you refuse to hedge when it goes against you.

          So its just loss after loss and the basic strategy is to just wait Old Turkey until the market comes back to you so you can escape. Sometimes that works but when you use 3X instruments with so much portfolio exposure the risk is astronomical.

          You are only going to win at this by good luck at this stage and given the outlook of a dollar that is about to start rising again its my prediction you will ultimately take a very heavy loss. Look at the WTI daily chart today and you will see its arrived at important resistance this morning.

          In other words, odds are good a reversal in trend is here and should ERX double-top at 27 today you might want to seriously consider selling it or hedging against the fall that looks certain to follow.

          So when I tell you I am looking to go long gold on a reversal of the new trend (which is down) it is another way of saying I am hedging my exposure or trying to pick up a gain on a counter-trend move. And that can happen IN SPITE of my holding a core short position so there is no conflict here at all.

          Your trading method stinks by the way. There was a time I was doing the same thing but I have learned over time that a methodical approach improves your odds. It is just ignorant to hold and/or incur growing losses against a prevailing trend. You guys caught the mythical falling knife buying that ERX when you did but that’s your problem.

          I have suggested a few times you look more closely at the technicals. That trade is going to reverse soon so you will get another chance to make a better decision about how you handle the next move down.

          There is no shame in being wrong though. We all make mistakes. The problem is not recognizing the mistake or taking evasive action even after others warn you might be heading for trouble.

          So pop up a screen of StockCharts or something similar and plug in a few of your favourite technicals. If you still think I am wrong then so be it. We can say we tried at least. But I am most certainly NOT writing these posts to waste your time or send you astray!

          1. Gary Post author

            I’ve already explained many times why we just decided to hold the ERX trade. To begin with it was never more than 20% of anyones portfolio so even a 50% drawdown was only going to be 10% to the entire portfolio.

            Second we already stopped out of the trade a couple of times. We were are risk of losing so much mental capital that we would never be able to pull the trigger again thus guaranteeing a losing trade.

            I knew at some point the energy sector would complete the YCL. And the most powerful rallies are generated at the bottom of YCL’s. So in order to have any chance of coming away with a winning trade it was better to just hold the position and let the market do what I knew it would eventually do. The weekly charts would eventually cycle back up to overbought and rescue the trade.

            I think oil will eventually reach $60 during this cycle and XLE could very well test the 52 week highs. In that case we will make a very nice profit on the trade by doing the opposite of what most traders do. I’ve watched as most have just stopped out over and over and now they can’t pull the trigger and they’ve already missed the best part of the rally off the bottom.

          2. Pedestrian

            “I’ve already explained many times why we just decided to hold the ERX trade. To begin with it was never more than 20% of anyones portfolio so even a 50% drawdown was only going to be 10% to the entire portfolio.”

            —————————

            What part of a 50% drawdown is not a problem here? Your first objective is to earn a profit in the trade. But the second is to avoid losses to the best of your ability. Since when does one sacrifice 10% of their money on a single trade and think that’s no big deal?

            Anyway, you are missing the whole point. ERX is going back down again and most especially if the dollar starts to rise as it looks set to do.

          3. Gary Post author

            I’m not sure why you keep trying to pick tops. You almost never time them correctly.

            Oil still has at least 1-3 more months to rally before the larger intermediate top forms.

          4. Pedestrian

            This is a reversal point. That is not the same as a final top or final bottom. I trade based on resistance and support levels and how the trades set up inside those confines. So its not that I am “picking tops” as you say, rather just identifying reversal levels within a chart pattern.

          5. Christian

            Get your facts straight dumbass! I never entered ERX @29.5 nor did I ever sustain a 25% loss :/ nice try though

    2. Bigdaddy

      Don’t be ridiculous. Germany’s election will not change gold’s direction for more than a day, if at all. The NK situation could explode at any moment and that’s far more important than who the Krauts elect. What a numb skull.

    3. Bigdaddy

      Pedo. Don’t be ridiculous. Germany’s election will not change gold’s direction for more than a day, if at all. The NK situation could explode at any moment and that’s far more important than who the Krauts elect. What a numb skull.

      1. Pedestrian

        I disagree BD. The two most heavily traded currencies in the world are dollars and euro. They generally move inverse one another and the relationship is symbiotic but mostly stable. So when the leader of Europe’s leading economy tinkers with the system of the Eurozone the impact can be felt almost immediately in currency markets.

        In other words, the dollar can strengthen or weaken unexpectedly based on little more than public statements coming off Angela Merkel’s lips in much the same way Mario Draghi can move markets by asserting he will buy more debt or work to create higher inflation.

        Do not underestimate the importance of the Leader of Germany. Unlike Kim Jong Un who needs nuclear-tipped missiles to move the needle on gold, all Angela needs to do is twitch her lips and money moves.

        Getting more to the point: There is a long standing relationship of equilibrium that exists between Europe’s governing elite and those in America because of our currency symbiosis. We have a status quo that markets have come to rely upon and not much happens unexpectedly or without warning that could tip the apple cart.

        But there are signs of danger lately as the electorate (who is generally unaware of why the system is stable in the first place) are bucking for political change and could bring in new leadership that will create serious discord over issues like immigration, EU integration, monetary policy, interest rates, social policy, entitlements etcetera, etcetera.

        The dollar\euro link means that should an upstart political party threaten to force change on the system when it is vulnerable we could see some loss of confidence in Europe which will result in euro selling. The direct outcome is a dollar that strengthens.

        One stupid move with a machine a complex as Europe could send the EU project and the Euro reeling and then we are all going to be faced with a sudden deflationary event as dollars soar on global markets while gold, oil and other commodities turn down once more.

        You only need to appreciate the linkages between asset classes and currencies to understand why this is so. And then you need to understand a little bit about the reaction of the market and why capital flows between the major regions of the world can have an oversized impact when somebody new opens their mouth and utters something stupid.

        The pivotal players on this planet we share are those politicians and Central Bankers in the US, China, Japan and Germany (EU). Everyone else is a bit player or supporting actor. Failure to understand this means you are going to make trading mistakes at every turn.

        So yes BigDaddy, the future of gold (and by definition the fate of the dollar) is in the hands of whoever wins elections in Germany next week. You better wake up to that quickly. Kim Jong Un is little more than an irritation in the big picture. If you don’t appreciate this then you no doubt don’t know why the leader of Greece (Alexas Tsipras) was far more dangerous than North Korea with his threats on exiting the Eurozone.

        1. Gary Post author

          Yeah and Brexit was supposed to destroy the pound as well.

          It doesn’t matter who wins the elections in Germany. Other than a secondary counter trend move the major trend is set and isn’t going to change.

          1. Pedestrian

            Are you nuts this morning Gary? Sterling fell from 150 to 120 in the process and has thus far only bounced back to major resistance which means the final chapter on Brexit is still not written. That was a HUGE decline for a reserve currency and I can guarantee it was quite material for anyone whose trades were impacted while the decline was happening. So you had better damned well believe it makes a difference who wins the German elections if the contender wants to start tinkering with the EU.

            Cable coming up to major resistance. Hold on tight. Next move is DOWN again.
            https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6B&p=w1

          2. Gary Post author

            It will not change the cyclical direction of the market. At best it would only generate a counter trend move down into an already way over due correction.

            Once the correction is over then the euro will resume it’s bull market and the dollar will continue deeper into its bear.

          3. Pedestrian

            Anyway, what the hell are you talking about saying the major trend is set? That is utter nonsense. Since when is anything “fixed” in the market place? The very reason that the world is going to sink into a global deflation is because of EU debt and the advent of popular political parties that seek to break the union which will eventually destroy the euro itself. You cannot seriously believe the US is living in a vacuum where there is no impact here should the zone break apart. This is the most serious threat the globe faces right now, bar none. Uncertainty in Europe is what will cause the dollar to soar and deflation to assert itself in the process. All that blather from you inflation people is just the noise of folks who don’t have a damned clue how the mechanics of the market work.

          4. Pedestrian

            “It will not change the cyclical direction of the market. At best it would only generate a counter trend move down into an already way over due correction. Once the correction is over then the euro will resume it’s bull market and the dollar will continue deeper into its bear.” — Gary
            —————————————–

            Oh really Gary? Based on what? You can say silly stuff all day long but if you cannot make the case with the linkages and interconnections its just a bunch of blather.

            Lets make this simple. Go pull up a chart of the dollar and then superimpose the Euro over it. Notice the inverse relationship? Please stop with the nonsense talk!

          5. Gary Post author

            Just look at the stock market. We don’t have deflation. We have massive inflation.

            Like I’ve said before inflation comes first. That kills the economy and then you get deflation as a result.

            Every recession for the last 70 years was preceded by a spike in the price of oil.

            The dollar has begun a bear market. This bear will be one for the history books. It will be the result of trillions of dollars in QE and it will ultimately cause massive inflation, first as a stock market bubble and then as commodity inflation and a bubble in gold.

          6. Pedestrian

            Gary, we have ASSET inflation.

            That is not the same as consumer price inflation by a long shot. And the reason is that asset inflation is almost entirely based on the popular beliefs of market participants whose perception of value is based upon what other people are currently willing to buy and sell for.

            Your home value can vanish in an instant if mood changes. It’s value can crash 20 or 30% without you having any control over it whatsoever. Just the same way that prices went up with no effort on your part, prices can also fall because of buyer and seller sentiments.

            That means a whole lot of wealth (and the dollars that represent that wealth) can disappear overnight. There won’t be trillions in fictitious wealth flooding into commodities when the bubbles burst because the bubbles themselves are based upon a mirage of unsustainable valuation.

            When the bubbles in stocks and housing burst, the money actually vanishes.

            Don’t believe me? Then explain where all the money went when US housing prices fell in 2006. We saw absolute declines in American wealth but it was all based on paper representations of what people *thought* they were worth. You cannot mathematically prove such prices ever really existed though except for the few who actually sold before the drop.

            But what you inflation guys never get is that the debt is NOT fictional.

            So the loans that were issued during the growth of the bubble are real obligations whereas the asset valuations themselves are almost entirely fictional.

            This is why excessive debt is a serious and undeniable deflation threat when the bubble period comes to an end. We are getting there step by step and all the leveraged positions in the market will have to be reconciled against what remains of the assets they stand for.

            A home loan of 100,000 dollars versus a home that can only fetch 75,000 is suddenly meaningful as are stocks that drop by half and wipe you out because you got a margin call on your leverage.

            What I am telling you Gary is that there is NO inflation coming to US dollar holders. Not CPI inflation anyway. When stocks and homes and business values start to decline during a bubble popping versus fixed payment schedules and outstanding loans that cannot be serviced we are going to have a GD depression in the West and its going to take more than a decade to recover from.

            I could pull my hair out reading the silly talk about inflation on this site. You guys don’t have a damned clue what you are talking about.

          7. Gary Post author

            Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Right now we are getting asset inflation. This is always how inflation starts. Eventually it moves into the commodity markets and then we get traditional commodity inflation.

            Notice how the last inflation began. It started with everything rising out of the bear market bottom in 2003. Then it focused in real estate and the stock market. Once those market topped and went into decline the inflation moved into the commodity markets causing a spike in oil. That collapsed the global economy and then and only then did we get deflation.

            We will follow the exact same path again. And we are following that path. The inflation is manifesting most strongly right now in the global stock markets but commodities are also starting to rise and have been since early 2016. Once the stock bubble pops the inflation will move aggressively into the commodity markets focusing this time on the precious metals and maybe agriculture instead of the energy markets and base metals.

          8. Pedestrian

            We can agree that inflation is a monetary issue. And it is true that debasing a currency brings the risk of creating offsetting inflation as the market begins to acknowledge the falling buying power of its money.

            But don’t forget that most of the QE that was ginned up and handed to the banks never made it into the economy and even to this day sits as excess reserves on the Fed’s balance sheet.

            This is why we never got much inflation in the price of autos, haircuts, vegetables and books. The money (USD) has not actually been debased such that people lost confidence in the currency. So vendors never started to push prices up to reflect a loss of buying power because none exists.

            On the contrary, the dollar rose in value beginning in 2011 and during that time the price of most commodities including oil and gold have fallen. Even now the dollar looks to be completing no more than a corrective decline and a resumption of its bull market is likely to continue.

            Should political gyrations in Europe damage confidence and the debt there become unsustainable (it is already unsustainable) then capital will flow back to the US and Asia. In the process we will see euro weaken and dollars roar back to life.

            I don’t think this can be avoided. The global outlook continues to be one of a deflationary outcome and the trouble that is coming will be felt most severely once the current asset bubbles begin to deflate with force.

            Your version of inflation “landing on something” makes no sense to me.

            When ever you write that all I can imagine is a Squirrel in your back yard leaping from tree to tree. The first tree is called Real Estate, the second is stocks and the other two are commodities and bonds.

            Wherever the Squirrel jumps that’s where the inflation goes!

            Well, I can kind of see what you are saying but sorry, it does not work quite like that. At this time we have bubbles in real estate, bonds and stocks. Only commodities are still depressed. Your Squirrel therefore has only one tree to jump too anymore.

            The problem with your version of the economy is that during a credit collapse we will see money itself disappear and that, by definition, means that dollars will appreciate in value and NOT cause the inflation you imagine. So the Squirrel is not really safe at all. He is in a tree surrounded by a forest fire.

            Remember Gary, all assets are based on assumptions of value that are mostly fictitious once we see pricing extremes. Your Squirrel might well save his sorry arse by hiding out in the commodity tree the during the wider asset deflation and bust that is coming but I am pretty sure nobody will be using the word “inflation” when referencing that event.

            You need to appreciate that as asset values fall (from bubble highs) that a larger and larger share of the economy is diverted into paying off existing debt. And that portion of past debt that cannot be paid is retired, forgiven or defaulted upon. Even as this happens we will contend with rising taxation that devours much of the free capital firepower that had remained.

            In other words, the pool of capital that might otherwise have been allocated to reinvestment is pretty much wiped out. This is when we start to see business failures, rising unemployment and demands for more taxation from government as the economy is asphyxiated by falling growth.

            All income streams are then under pressure and this is particularly acute in government at a time when social spending needs to rise to offset the effects of the deflation event.

            Sorry if this is a dismal picture but there is no way around it. The music stops when there is no more credit expansion and then the process begins to go into reverse. That means falling incomes, fewer jobs, less revenues for government, little free capital for investment and a bust of the pension system.

            We are looking at an epic economic calamity that will rival the worst days of the last great depression and there is simply no solution to stop it from happening anymore other than an acceptance our standard of living will fall steeply.

            Your little Squirrel might be OK if he can hold on to his investments. But chances are he will be more like the little Squirrel in the 1930’s who was forced to sell long before he reaped the benefits of his smart play because he needed INCOME just to survive the tough years.

  10. Nada

    I see trendline as broken in gold showing a clear hunt for DCL. I think we turn to fill gap and then some. Well, here we are at the cycle Gary has been talking to load the boat – but wait that has now changed? Will this now be a hunt for ICL?

    To be fair, I think Gary sees a second daily cycle that rolls into a failed cycle.

    On mobile so can’t post trendline break, but what we havd is a good opportunity to load.

  11. Goild

    Good afternoon,

    I have a glass of wine.
    My lovely wife is happy.
    She got a brand new fancy car.

    Let us make more money tomorrow.
    The odds are about either way for gold to go down or up.
    No need to guess, let the market show an extreme or a divergence.
    Then we will take advantage and make more money.
    Even though the rats and manipulators are ferocious, we still will get the miners riches.

  12. Gary Post author

    Gold is just about to test the uptrend line today.

    It still has to break it and close below it.

    If the dollar starts an intermediate rally after the FOMC meeting then the odds would be high that the metals will sink back into the basing pattern.

  13. Nada

    Speaking of German elections. Someone care to explain to me how Merkel can be the favorite in the election? So let’s see.. Merkel destroys Europe by forcing massive immigration down everyone’s throat and she is expected to win? Rapes, acid attacks, terrorism and Muslim prayers every 25 mins played over PA systems and the Europeans want to reelect the person who handed their country over?

    Please someone from Europe explain this to me. The entire landscape has changed and they keep welcoming heaps of immigrants.

    1. victor

      Nada, I have the same questions and don’t understand Europeans why they’re not rising to prevent that government moves. My nephew 29y/old lives in Munich express a view most of the people of his generation and it ” human rights, poor people whose houses been destroyed, not everyone is bad but only some who radicalized and yes, America is mostly responsible of what happening”. So, Merkel can win, just a matter of good talking.

  14. Pedestrian

    Gold still falling. No bounce yet. Will watch for fib support near 1300 dollars next where the bounce comes in if we are not going to go back up and close that gap this week. Playing by ear as always.

    1. Gary Post author

      Yes it’s doing exactly what I said it would do. It needs to break the uptrend line and close below it. A 38% retracement is almost guaranteed. 50% is certainly possible. If gold breaks back below the double top support at $1300 then I believe the short cycle scenario is in play and the metals are going to sink back into the basing pattern.

  15. Gary Post author

    We’re getting the recognition day today in the precious metals, especially silver. That’s the spot where longs can no longer pretend the metals are going to bounce any minute and go back up.

    Next we need to break the trend line. That will trigger more selling as technical traders get knocked out of their positions. Then at some point selling will exhaust and we’ll get a bounce. At the moment I tend to think it will be a short term bounce that forms the cycle down trend line followed by one more leg down.

    This doesn’t always happen though so price may just continue down to find its DCL sometime after the FOMC meeting.

    However if the FOMC meeting triggers a dollar rally then gold could be starting an intermediate decline and a really stretched cycle.

    1. Nada

      So gold goes into ICL after 1 daily cycle – How does that make sense? I am not sure what cycle we are on, but from your charts, it appears this is the first. It seems the DCL has spooked everyone. The logic a few weeks ago was to load the boat on the DCL. Has the opinion changed due to COTs? I understand everyone needs to be fluid in their thinking, but this seems like quite a flip flop.

      1. Gary Post author

        I went over the logic behind it in the short cycle video.

        I was overlooking that possibility that the dollar might find an ICL at the megaphone trend line. If it did then gold would likely fall into a short cycle and drop while the dollar delivered a 4-6 week counter trend rally.

        1. Pedestrian

          And the other thing Nada is that this method of cycle counts only offers a framework from which to base your trades but its highly subjective as the cycles develop. Like Elliot Waves, they are best understood in the rear view mirror. You can make yourself crazy trying to fit the market behavior to a cycles formula because counts can vary so widely. Whole cycles get missed or chopped in half.

    1. Nada

      What sounds suspicious about making a lower high on FOMC day? If the FED is serious about balance sheet reduction, then seems logical. Regarding the Sept 14th date, is that what you previously had as the low?

      GL.

      1. Jimsee

        specious = misleading, fake, trying to sound smart by tying your ‘system’ to a big event in this case.

        The sep 14 was a ‘lo’ = it clearly worked , but placing it in the trend is an art – now it is not an uptrend lo – but a corrective bounce lo – making the next hi suspect for continuing the uptrend to new highs.

        hope that helps.

    2. Nada

      What sounds suspicious about making a lower high on FOMC day? If the FED is serious about balance sheet reduction, then seems logical. Regarding the Sept 14th date, is that what you previously had as the low?

      GL.

  16. Jimsee

    since sep 14 lo was broken – for example – I made a trade long jnug off the 9:40 timeframe – but set the target 20.30 and sold – because the sep 14 low was broken – a downtrend long gets u out much faster and lower. just happy to make a few centavos and call it a day. if sep 14 held with good volume esp. then I’d still be holding jnug for 20.7 or better, perhaps a 38% retrace towards 22 or better.

  17. Gary Post author

    And again today we see why I keep saying over and over not to short the bubble phase of a bull market.

    Human nature never changes though and traders will continue to ignore me and they will continue to lose money.

    If you would only take this one simple rule to heart and follow it you will end you trading career with a lot more money in your account than if you ignore me.

    1. Pedestrian

      I told you it would drop below 5.00 dollars. Did you forget to mention that in your post where you showed up tail-between-legs and admitted you lost the position? You are always so quick to criticize but slow to acknowledge one little fact.

      I was right (and you were wrong).

    1. Pedestrian

      Hey buddy, I’m on the correct side of metals and miners for quite a few days straight.

      Meanwhile you own ERX which just double-topped and is going down for the count. And you have a big pile of DUST you bought in 3 tranches that is still underwater because you bought prematurely. Next time instead of harassing me because I waited for a decent entry point you will pay closer attention.

      Enjoy the ride!

      1. Christian

        First off, I don’t own ERX nor did I lose money on that trade (others on this blog can attest to that) so get your facts straight! Second, my breakeven point on DUST was 22.25 and I’m currently making a pile money on this trade because I knew better, so why don’t you do everyone on this blog a favour and shut your cake hole instead of spewing a bunch of bs 🙂

        1. Pedestrian

          Your breakeven cannot be 22 if you averaged down because the last tranche you bought was on August 30th when price was trading closer to 23. But you had already been buying weeks earlier and I clearly recall Nada asking you if you had bailed out. That was middle August long after the first entry.
          ———————————————–
          Christian
          August 31, 2017 at 5:16 pm

          I’m gonna go ahead and buy one last tranche in DUST if Miners deliver one more high over the next couple of days.. Remember folks, eventually GOLD will correct and deliver a DCL of some sort, if one is patient enough 😊

        2. Pedestrian

          Secondly Christian, you do indeed own ERX and you confirmed that in an exchange with JJHarmen on August 18th’s Weekend Report when he asked you about it. You reported you added more shares that day. You also bragged just recently about how clever you were spotting the ERX reversal. So two counts of lying in the same day. How can we believe anything you say from now on?

          —————————————————-

          JJHarmen
          August 18, 2017 at 12:42 pm

          What about ERX Christian? Still on your books?

          Christian
          August 18, 2017 at 1:00 pm

          Yep — I’m quietly confident on this one and bought some more yesterday. I think Energy will catch up to OIL next week.. if not, then I’ll just break even 🙂

          1. Christian

            Dude — Seriously, will you just shut the F*ck up once and for all!

            I exited ERX IN REAL TIME ON THIS BLOG, just above break-even. In fact, I was bang on because ERX did catch up to OIL and it’s currently trading @$27. If anything, I lost focus and left money on the table you dumb schmuck, Lol!

            Do you not have anything better to do with your time? I guess being stuck in a ‘sexless marriage’ sucks doesn’t it?

          2. Pedestrian

            Oh my God you are a real hoot. My wife is half my age. Wish I could keep up. She trades along with my btw and thinks you are an idiot. Can you guess which name she goes by on the site?

  18. AT

    out of DUST today, back in cash

    Sep 18 – sold 100% DUST 23.45

    Aug 31 – buy 50% DUST 21.80
    Aug 28 – buy 50% DUST 23.06
    Aug 24 – sold 50% JNUG 18.89
    Aug 22 – buy 50% JNUG 18.27
    Aug 18 sold 100% JNUG 18.80
    Aug 2 buy 50% JNUG 18.20
    Jul 31 buy 50% JNUG 18.59
    Jul 28 sold 100% JNUG 18.69
    Jul 27 buy 50% JNUG 17.61
    Jul 27 buy 50% JNUG 17.98
    Jul 24 sold 100% DUST 30.95
    Jul 18 buy 50% DUST 30.19
    Jul 17 buy 50% DUST 30.80
    Jul 14 sold 50% JNUG 16.92
    Jul 13 buy 50% JNUG 16.08
    Jul 11 sold 100% JNUG 16.56
    Jul 7 buy 50% JNUG 15.03
    Jul 6 buy 50% JNUG 16.46
    Jun 30 sell 50% DUST 31.48
    Jun 27 buy 50% DUST 30.05

    1. Bigdaddy

      Thanks AT. There is nothing more enjoyable over the morning coffee than to examine a day traders list of trades. It’s even better than reading Pedo’s drivel.

  19. bluelagoon

    Congrats AT. What I like about you is that you post your trades in real time. And though you don’t always get the tops or bottoms (which is very difficult and not necessarily something to strive for) – your strategy consistently gives you wins. Nice work!!

    1. AT

      I found it hard to get tops and bottoms,.

      Looking for a good JNUG buy, plan to buy 50% as soon as is down to 19; you never know what can happen on NK/US front; happy to be out of DUST with a small profit for now

      I am afraid to do any stocks trades regardless of what Gary is saying re stocks bubble, they are up too much.
      I am trying to be a bit of contrarian to some of Gary’s calls – he said Gold is going down, so I will look to buy soon first JNUG tranche soon to not miss the next move up this time.

      1. bluelagoon

        I agree with you AT – this isn’t the time to eek out the last drop from stocks – wait until at least Nov given Sept/Oct are the worst months. We are bound to have even a bit of a correction. JNUG is getting close to your $19 target.

  20. Spanky

    It looks like gold is virtually guaranteed to tag the 50 dma within the next few weeks.

    The 10 month EMA is 1275. I would rather not see that MA closed below by month end. And if we do touch it this month, would like to see a serious bounce before the last day of the month.

      1. Pedestrian

        That’s exactly what I have warned about. The angle is steep. I agree. My target is for a gold decline of about 250 dollars from the peak to trough before its all over. What is less clear is exactly how we get from here to there and what kind of relief bounces materialize along the way. The double top I imagined no longer looks likely after todays 14 dollar fall.

        This is how the bear will trap longs though. They are all waiting for a bounce to escape sour trades or to add to longs in anticipation this is just a blip. They will be wrong as usual and get their portfolios destroyed like before. Every day they hold becomes more dear until they finally just succumb and decide to hold on until the price comes back too their buy point.

        But what if i am correct and gold is still in a bear market? Bad news boys.

        (Hey Sassy, you should have never listened to the gold bugs on this site. You had a great trade even if it was a little too early. In a few more weeks I think you will know for sure that it was actually a big winner. Just because a lot of bugs hate me does not mean I was wrong. It only means this is a gold site and I am in the minority)

        1. Sassybabe

          You just said this morning that you expected gold to rise to test 1361 and now that it’s down, you are saying you were right all along? How can you play on both sides of the fence and expect to make money?

          I am now convinced that you are a very stupid man. Please don’t address me in the future.

          1. Pedestrian

            Read the posts again dingbat. The buy was *conditional* on meeting certain requirements. When that did not happen there was no buy and so I remain short without having to trade a reversal.

            When the market changes you change with it.

            Meanwhile, over in the knitting club with Lena PowPow you two are no doubt getting your arses handed to you for being long miners and buying into the gold bug propaganda. Best of luck to you both but honestly, there is not much hope.

  21. Spanky

    $hui’s gap at 201.94 almost filled. The rising 50 dma is also within sight now at 198.46. The MAs are all bullishly aligned on the daily chart (20 dma on top of 50, 100, 200) FWIW.

  22. Spanky

    Dow’s stochastics on the daily chart have been pegged at 98-99 for 4 straight days. That is quite frankly ridiculous.

    If we close near the day’s highs, that will be 5 straight closes above the upper bollinger band. Again, utterly ridiculous. Getting a sixth close above the upper bollinger is statistically improbable. A seventh would be something you don’t ever see any any markets, up or down, except silver, which has had 7 daily closes below the lower bollinger band in the past (back in Nov-Dec. 2015).

    BTFD. Any dip.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p37163735897&a=545261918&listNum=1

  23. Nada

    Well we are close to DCL. The fear has arrived. I suspect .5fib should do the trick we just got very close.

    I have the following fib levels
    1304.47 as .5
    1299.06 as .382
    12i91.96 as .618

    Someone mentioned NVDA above. What a POS – look at the monthly chart and show me a cycle. Unreal how overpriced equities are.

          1. Christian

            If so, then you don’t understand how Cycles work which could eventually cost you brother. Just my opinion of course.. To each his own 🙂

            Remember, the Buck is throwing everything off and almost every Cycle Analyst out there (yes, even our friend at ChartFreak] is trying to find ways to justify by compensating. Why? Simply because they can’t think outside the proverbial box.

          2. Nada

            I don’t follow chartfreaks, I was making reference to another analyst viewpoint. I don’t think this is the first daily cylce, but who knows. I have been early on all of my entires, so I doubt this will be any different – sort of like buying DUST at 25. The important thing is to buy yourself time or handle the DD while you wait for things to go your way.

  24. primetime

    Ped,

    Good call on LABD, buy it under 5. Right on. Also you hit that copper call.

    I would be willing to give you some credit on the metal call, but hell you could not even keep that straight in your head all last week.

    If you would control your emotions and not let the trolls get you excited, you may just build a trading reputation yet.

    1. Pedestrian

      Thanks Primetime. I will admit I was early on the gold reversal call. I did not however go short at either of the first two targets because its my nature to hold back for a confirmation. Got it the third time though so all is good.

      There is too much gambling on this site anymore. Lots of impulsiveness among the buyers who assume too much and are not prepared to wait. And almost nobody seems to understand the difference between discussing potential trades versus actual trades. Very frustrating at times.

      Anyway, I am happy to hear I may have been helpful to you. The last thing on my mind is sending anyone down a dead end or into a bad trade. I believe in what I am saying based on my technicals. They are not always correct but most of the time I manage to stay on the right side of the market.

          1. Christian

            Thx JJ — been arguing all morning with “you know who” about my positions. And what a F*ckin waste of time that was, Lol! I should know better by now.

  25. JJHarmen

    Strange how there are rarely intraday reversals anymore. Everything is gap up or gap down right from the opening bell. Betting against the days trend rarely works out.

    1. Americano

      NVDA yaps about AI being their key future because analysts lap it up.
      But the real dirty is that they are being sold out of graphics cards & chips by crypto miners. This occurs in minutes because miners utilize bots to buy. Watch NVDA for “surge” pricing when it comes to this ala Uber

  26. primetime

    Christian,

    I would also like to think you knew what you were doing in that dust trade.

    However, based on our past history, I still must classify it as nothing more than pure luck! Ha Ha

    1. Christian

      You can call it whatever you want my friend 🙂

      But remember, I’m the only one that kept telling everyone that Precious Metals and Miners would eventually top and subsequently drop down into a DCL. The only thing I didn’t account for was HOW FAR the cycle could stretch upward. Now if that makes me an amateur then so be it, in the meantime.. I’m making money and that’s all that matters.

      And btw boys.. that money is paying for 3 weeks in Hawaii next January.

  27. Bigdaddy

    I gotta take Mutt out. I wish i could train him for his walk after the markets close but he’s an old dog…. hopeless. be back later. Stay tuned for more trading ideas.

    1. Americano

      LMAO. I encourage everyone to listen to Bob on this podcast. I think he should be more concerned about having solid bowel movements rather than Bitcoin but hey…….sellers are gonna talk their book lol.

    1. Pedestrian

      Thank you very much. So it was written and so it came to be. Like 250 dollars a share in two trading days. I told those guys that Jamie Dimon was sending a buy signal by saying Bitcoin was dead but the doubters wanted to buy gold and silver instead. Good grief!

      1. Nada

        I never thought bitcoin was popping or gong to roll over. Gary has called for a lot of bubbles to pop (last one was bonds) and few have came to fruition. Gary knows well enough that those type of comments linked to investing.com bring traffic. Nothing wrong with making a prediction though.

        Now as far as gold I am not sure why everyone is thinking so exotic. I see it as a hunt for a DCL not an ICL or the 250 points you are calling for. When you hear hoofbeats, think of horses not zebras.

        I might have lost track, so are you expecting a double top still or has that viewpoint changed?

        1. Pedestrian

          Yeah, the double top was my outlook in the early hours as gold had arrived at a minor resistance level. When it busted right through the bottom that idea was killed dead in its tracks. Nothing wrong with having a target of course.

          Happily I had no action to take so just staying the course.
          I am short metals/miners naturally.

          Not sure what you mean about a link to Investing.com since I don’t see it. But there is no doubt Gary is building traffic with whatever he is doing over there in Vegas. Maybe has one of those sharp Casino whizz kids working on improving his profile. They are doing a great job.

          Today he cracked through the Alexa Rankings top 100,000 sites in the US.

          I pop in and check it from time to time just to see what kind of traffic is being generated here and its actually pretty amazing. All the more so when you consider so many of the people posting comments on this site lately are obvious trolls.

          Its a pretty big deal anyway. There are something like 1.2 billion websites in the world right now and most of them are US based. For Gary to come out in the top 100 thousand is frankly startling. But that’s what Alexa says:

          Smart Money Tracker popularity according to Alexa Statistics
          https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/smartmoneytrackerpremium.com

  28. Gary Post author

    The SPX may close above 2500 on its first try. That could very well signal the start of the vertical phase.

    If we do get a pullback into a HCL after the FOMC meeting it will be a gift and the last chance to buy before the market starts to chug steadily higher as the vertical phase starts in earnest.

    Traders better have some kind of position though in case there is no HCL. They don’t always occur during first daily cycles.

    1. Nada

      Thought it took you about 8-9 months to get on the SM train, the one thing that you have been consistent on is to not short the SM. That advice alone is worth an applause. Hell I even understand why you had reservation jumping on the train, a shit sandwich looked plausible.

      I guess WS figured out quickly that Trump was going to be status quo, just like the rest of them. No swamp drained and lets see, this week we had 0 miles completed on that wall. Add that to the 0 miles completed since election.

  29. Gary Post author

    I would caution a little patience with gold. If it bounces this week its probably a false bottom and would catch the impatient traders trying to get log too soon. There will need to be another leg lower before the real DCL. We need to at least reach the 38% Fib. If we break back below 1300 then the short cycle scenario is likely in play and one would need to wait out a counter trend bounce in the dollar first before trying to pick the final ICL.

  30. Sassybabe

    I bought 3500 shares of SLV today. I am following Bigdaddy closely as my score sheet gives him a high score for his silver calls. I admit I don’t have the expertise to make informed judgements so I might as well go with the winners.
    I think many others here are just guessing.

      1. Lenapowich

        Pedestrian (gary) sometimes you say such stupid things. Sassybabe and I work in the same building here in Chicago. I doubt that she and Bigdaddy ( Canada?) have some kind of secret long distance relationship going on or that they even know one another.
        Quit embarrassing yourself.

  31. MagnuM

    I’m not afraid to admit my bad trades as well.

    I was in HGD.TO @ $9.55 since August 3rd.
    I sold HGD.TO this afternoon @ $9.00.

    This was probably one of the gutsiest holds I’ve ever done in my 7 years doing this. HGD.TO got to as low as $7.82 during this cycle. I honestly thought gold would be capped at $1,300, but instead it blasted right through it like a Kim Jong Un missile! Instead of ditching it in fear (like I would have in my earlier days), I wanted to at least wait to what I thought was a DLC (or at least close to it), and I think we may have reached a short term bottom around $1,306 today.

    I very very nearly sold on the very day that SassyBabe gave up, because I could barely take the pain anymore. This was the most disastrous trade I took all year (only 20% portfolio position though), but thankfully the other 80% picked up a lot of the slack.

    I still sold for a loss, but turned a disastrous trade into merely a bad one.

  32. Strike2

    A special request…
    Can we all try to play nice? Even if you think someone is a dumbass please don’t say it. Use the imaginary IGNORE button. It’s so much easier to pick up good ideas/analysis on a board that you don’t have to sift through the verbal manure. Thanks in advance.

    1. Pedestrian

      Impossible Strike. Half the site are pitbulls and attack dogs. I used to try ignoring them but some are so persistent you really have no option but to answer. You just have to accept that’s the way it is around here. No mercy for mistakes.

      1. Nada

        Only about 3-4 people post real time trades, so I dunno why anyone would get upset if they are wrong. Anyway, 82 million BOW in GLD today, so we may get a bounce. It was a block trade, so someone buying in front of FOMC is telling or they are looking for a scalp.

  33. Strike2

    $GOLD:
    So far 32.6% retrace from July low to Sept high
    So far 49% retrace from Aug low to Sept high
    I think the July low is an ICL; There is some issue as to whether the Aug low is a DCL or a HCL. Take your pick.

  34. Strike2

    $GOLD:
    So far 32.6% retrace from July low to Sept high
    So far 49% retrace from Aug low to Sept high
    I think the July low is an ICL; There is some issue as to whether the Aug low is a DCL or a HCL. Take your pick.

  35. Lenapowich

    I see Pedestrian provided us with a glowing report on this website’s Alexa standings. A question that immediately comes to mind is this: Why would the seemingly egotistical Pedestrian take the time to check on such standings and then go even further and announce his findings in this public forum and with plenty of accompanying praise? The Alexa standings would be something that only Gary himself would be interested in. Why would the self centered “Pedestrian” even care to check? That just doesn’t fit his personality.

    There is no longer a shred of doubt in my mind that Pedestrian is either Gary himself or someone working closely with Gary to advance Gary’s prestige as an analyst. NO DOUBT!!

    1. Gary Post author

      Well you would be wrong. Seriously people take off the tin foil hats. Like anyone is going to invent a fictional identity to argue with. Jezzz do you people really listen to the nutty stuff you write before you write it. No one creates a second identity to argue with. They create someone to agree with them and give them credibility.

      Ever since Mustang Sally disappeared I haven’t seen any evidence that anyone is using multiple accounts.

      Until Ped mentioned it the other day I had no idea what an Alexa rating was.

    2. Pedestrian

      Very sad commentary from you Lena. Give Gary his due. He has worked hard for many years to build a following on his site. It takes a small person like yourself to minimize those efforts and try to turn a friendly post like mine into a conspiracy of personality duplicity.

      WTF is wrong with people like you anyway? Jealous or what?

      —————————————————————————–

      Stepping back for a moment though this is probably not all that strange when you give it more thought. Its almost a trending sentiment among a certain demographic group who resent personal success. It is the same kind of person who leans toward Socialism and wants to level the field making everyone equal.

      In other words, stealing from those who have wealth and distributing to those who are less endowed.

      At another time not that long ago there was a great deal more energy in America. People with good ideas were applauded and rewarded. The feeling was positive. Others sought to rise to their level of success by learning from them. Not anymore. These days the mood is one of tearing everything down and lowering people with achievement to the impoverished level of the mob.

      So Lenapowich is perhaps just a symbolic reflection of the negative mood prevalent in our society these days. People quite like herself would find more satisfaction in breaking down the barriers to their own success by knocking others off a pedestal first rather than earn a sense of accomplishment through their own personal effort and hard work.

      America has turned to cynicism and that is surely a sign of a late stage economic cycle in play.

      Anyone who has ever lived in a country with a younger demographic profile or a country that is in the early stages of development will know what I am talking about here. The mood is quite different. It is energetic, positive and forward looking. There are fresh ideas and different ways of doing things that are widely accepted. Barriers are lower for creative, energetic people.

      I have lived in some of those countries. The differences are stark. What you see instead is more cooperation between people who are trying to get ahead and rise up and a sense that one members success is good for the entire group. There is more a sense of nationalism as well, flag waving and “our team” versus the other country.

      This is probably why Asia has been rising so fast and displacing the US and other developed nations in so many respects. It is why the developing nations are nipping at the heels of the fattened class of the entitled in the advanced countries. They just have more of a can-do attitude and a sense they can win.

      Back in America meanwhile it seems we have all sunk into a pit of mental poverty and negativity. Makes you wonder who are the really poor people in the world since its not determined so much by income as it is the state of mind.

      Lenapowich is among that new class of the poor. Cynical and negative. We better get used to it. Her kind seeks not to rise up and be among the best but rather to tear down what exists until it crashes down to her level.

      That is indeed how socialism works to make us all equal again.

  36. Lenapowich

    I forgot to mention that I bought a few hundred more shares of GDXJ at the close today. I think we are very close to a bottom. if we didn’t already see it today. I am very bullish on the gold miners.

    1. Gary Post author

      Sooner or later you will learn that no one has a crystal ball. During the rising phase of an intermediate cycle the perma bulls will look like geniuses. If you think they are clairvoyant then you will guarantee to get caught when the declining phase of the cycle begins. That’s the time that the perma bears will shine.

      At some point you will realize that you need to moderate your view and accept that markets have up phases and down phases. The persons you should heed are the ones that can trade both sides of the market or at least spot tops and bottoms. Perma anything by definition won’t do that.

      1. victor

        read Lenapowich post…, I have no idea Gary how you can be so patient. Really. Following this blog for many years at first I thought you just keep yourself calm in hope someone will become a sub. But you already know that those writing garbage never become a subs. So why do not though this weeds out? You have thousands paid subscribes for years so why keep that garbage spoil your nerves?
        My wife just said it is to keep traffic to website. Ya, everything has it’s price… Keep it up Gary…

        1. Pedestrian

          I wonder the same thing as you Victor. Nobody can even write anything positive these days without a Lenapowich type showing up to shit all over it. Trolls like her rarely have any value to offer either.

          Why are they even here?

  37. chrisG

    If you lose money during bull and bear market. U are stupid person. If u make money during a bull, and loses on a bear, u are a normal person. If u make during a bull, and avoided losses during a bear, u are a very great person. If u make during a bull, and also make money during a bear….. U are a God! Lol

  38. Pedestrian

    Bearish pennant on silvers hourly chart today? Perhaps it is only half way down the path of its decline? We will know soon enough as that pattern will break quite soon. The one-trade bulls will be getting the punishment they so richly deserve if that’s the case. Nothing can ever change those guys but they sure have been quiet lately. Saving their chest pounding for the one day metals bounce back no doubt. They can always be counted on to make a single day move appear as though a new trend has started!!!!
    https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=h1

    1. roadrunner

      So, the resident blowhard, spews a bunch of nonsense about how their is a new class of people who are negative and therefore poor.
      “Lenapowich is among that new class of the poor. Cynical and negative. We better get used to it. Her kind seeks not to rise up and be among the best but rather to tear down what exists until it crashes down to her level.”

      and then the resident blowhard vomits the following from his mouth. this clown lives in the history of now. Forget whatever he said, 1 minute, 1 day or 1 year ago …what counts, and the only thing that counts , is what he says now…and that is called the history of now.

      “The one-trade bulls will be getting the punishment they so richly deserve if that’s the case. Nothing can ever change those guys but they sure have been quiet lately. Saving their chest pounding for the one day metals bounce back no doubt. They can always be counted on to make a single day move appear as though a new trend has started!!!!”

      At least his feminine ego, Mustang Sally, had some manners.

Leave a Reply