154 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY – PARABOLIC BEGINNING?

  1. Don

    Gary, you now have Dennis Gartman on your side who said today “”You’re at this point in the stock market where it can do anything. It’s gone parabolic,”

    Do I have to tell you what it means to have Gartman on board ?

  2. Gary Post author

    Things are unfolding exactly as I predicted they would. People keep trying to call tops every other day. The market just keeps running over them as more and more perma bears finally throw in the towel.

    I’ll say it again: 10,000 is going to be a piece of cake, 20,000 isn’t out of the question.

    The ROBO ratio has a long ways to go before we reach the kind of complacency that would indicate a bull market top. And a lot further than that before a bubble would top.

    Before its over we’re going to see the same kind of irrational behavior in the stock market that we are seeing in bitcoin.

    Folks we’ve just had and are still having the largest printing spree in the history of the world. It’s going to create one of the largest bubbles the world has ever seen. Bitcoin is already nearing the Tulip bulb mania. Before this is done I expect the bubble in stocks will eclipse the Nasdaq bubble.

    1. Gary Post author

      No chance of that IMO.

      Now if the stock market forms a huge bubble and then pops and if the Fed tries to pump it back up with more QE that instead flows into the commodity markets causing inflation, then we will have a problem.

  3. Alexandru Popovici

    SM moving higher is normal; we are now in Step 2 (post the b/o of eurusd above 1.1881).
    As stated before, Step 3 will be emerging only after USDJPY gets close to 113.

    1. Gary Post author

      By July Goild is going to be paying up on that bet. He’s going to finance the winner of the challenge and the other half will go to my favorite charity. ๐Ÿ™‚

          1. Nada

            Oh nice, I wasn’t aware of. Going to be interesting to watch, especially with the ball busting already starting, lol..

  4. Gary Post author

    Silver has just joined the miners in confirming a failed daily cycle.

    Gold should follow soon.

    Of course that will mean I was wrong about the short cycle theory. Instead it will be a left translated intermediate cycle which means there will be high odds gold will move below the July low before this is done.

    1. Nada

      Goild you are a true gentleman with your comments. Always kind with your remarks. An example for us all. I doubt anyone changes, but a good example none the less ๐Ÿ™‚

    1. Gary Post author

      Each reversal just cements the the bubble mentality even stronger guaranteeing almost everyone will get caught in the crash… unless they are one of the very few that can control greed.

        1. Gary Post author

          Except the stock market is at the very beginning of the parabolic phase and the bitcoin parabola is very mature.

          The Dow is only 11% above the 200 DMA. A far cry from the 130%+ in bitcoin.

  5. carlvan

    Sorry for a longer post: for curiosity I googled bitcoin and cryptos to know more about Blockchains, “Proof of Work” and other “decentralized databases” and “how to create your wallet” or even your own crypto. I must be perhaps a bit dumb because after 3 hours of ingesting this verbiage in so-called informed and knowledgeable sites, I still have this question of what are the benefits of owning a crypto instead of an “official” currency. I mean, it is not providing more stability when you see the 3000% increase or 95% decrease during the ascending/descending phases. I mean, ok, that is great when it comes to speculating and trading, but if a currency is meant only for that, and not for securing your assets, what’s the use? The few cents a month the average Joe will earn when renting its local PC processing power to the blockchains processes? Come on. So, very humbly, I have to say that I don’t see any benefit of crypto’s versus other currencies, at least for now.
    Transparency and no commissions unlike banks? That’s a lie: I discovered most companies are charging you up to 6% fees (!!) when you want to buy or sell cryptos in or out of your e-wallet. Forex brokers and even bankers are much less expensive than that, and I don’t defend them at all. So, something muste have escaped probably my attention or reasonment, I would be curious to know what you think about those facts guys. Because, as of now, I only see 2 benefits for using cryptos: speculating, and money laundry…

    1. vin

      I spent time understanding this miracle as well. And my conclusions are similar to yours eg it is an excellent tool for anonymity, but more importantly it can and probably is used to hide ill-gotten enormous funds.

      Gold serves a similar purpose up to some extent though it is more easily traceable now with all the new technology. However gold has many more advantages specially for an ordinary joe. And, it has a remarkable history behind it. The gold hidden in UK and other parts of Europe by the retreating Roman army has still not been found except for some accidental discoveries. How about that for a permanent currency?

      1. carlvan

        Vin, yes I agree with you that if one thing in history has always been seen and used as the ultimate and universal recognized wealth container, it is gold. And it can be stored away from the grips of bankers and the eyes of governments. For that reason, it is illegal to buy gold in several countries here in EU! But trading futures is not illegal ๐Ÿ˜‰

  6. mustang sally

    Howdy All: I am back; as I said in my post back on Aug 12. What as changed nothing, in August we had shorty sending up firecrackers which moved the gold/us market, did that change the long term trend,no!!. Now that crap is out of the way, guess what Mabel Markers usd, 93.60 hgd 10.00 dusty 29.50 and gold 1260 are all in play agani. . just an undercut as Gary calls it. As before once these are surpassed usd will rip the face of everything , gold and stocks.

    Sitting in the weeds
    Shortin Sally

    Ps still in the contest with my jdst

  7. Robert

    Gary its better you say gold will go below the October low before this is all done. There is no way in hell gold is dropping below the July low of 1200. Don’t make such outlandish predictions again in case it doesn’t happen. You will get a hammering from trolls if u get it wrong, its better to be conservative. 1240 – 1250 should be it for the ICL

    1. Gary Post author

      That’s not what I said. Read it again.

      I said the intermediate cycle will become left translated if gold drops below the October low. Left translated cycles usually move below the previous cycle low of similar duration. (in this case the previous ICL came in July).

      I’m not guaranteeing gold will go below the July low. I’m saying if gold left translates the odds increase significantly that it will go below the July low.

      So how does one use this knowledge to try to make money?

      Well since the miners and now silver have dropped below the October low I think one should assume that gold will as well.

      At that point, armed with the knowledge of left translation tendencies, one should be patient and not buy too early just in case gold does complete a failed intermediate cycle.

      You can greatly improve your chances of getting in closer to the bottom if you understand cycle translation.

        1. Gary Post author

          A better strategy IMO is to just ignore the sector for a few more weeks. It’s too erratic right now. Too hard to make money. Even if you have the correct trade on the banksters can trigger a big whipsaw and knock you out of your trade for a loss.

          It’s just not worth the time and effort in the metals right now.

  8. Goild

    We may have seen the bottom in JNUG/GOLD, a double bottom this early morning, at the lower trend line of the sideway channel.
    If things work as they often work, we are going up for a bull trap, before the master undercut comes.

  9. vin

    Yes Roy, they certainly are in the long run, after they lose the CB support. Until then there is nothing to worry. How long can it last? One week or another 25 years? Who knows. But, I can assure you that numbers don’t make any sense and in recorded history such extremes have rarely been reached, if ever.

    1. Roy Batty

      “But, I can assure you that numbers donโ€™t make any sense and in recorded history such extremes have rarely been reached, if ever.”

      Kind of cryptic … can you expound? What extremes were mentioned in the video?

      1. vin

        Roy, I was referring to the international economic numbers which are not sustainable. Such excesses have rarely been reached before, if ever.

        I wasn’t referring to the video. Sorry for the confusion.

        Which numbers? They are all over. 100 trillions in derivatives? Worth of derivatives exceed the capitalization many major companies? Governments of most of the major economies owe more and some cases significantly more than the gdp? Consumers can’t make their debt payments when the interests have been kept so low for a decade now? I can go on and on ……

  10. jacob2

    BTC . Suspect that BTC sucking the speculative air out of the for FANG and tech stocks. Getting a rotation into financials and industrial stocks. The bull marches on but changes looks.

  11. JJHarmen

    Gary, now that energy stocks have exploded upwards, are you still of the opinion that it’s best to stay away from the energy sector because their stocks have not been acting the way you think they should?

    1. Gary Post author

      If you want to jump into energy 23 weeks into an intermediate cycle and with oil nearing that $60-$62 resistance zone be my guest.

      I’m waiting for a tag of that resistance and that’s where I’ll probably start shorting oil for the move down into the next ICL.

      The time to buy is at ICL bottoms when everyone on this board is negative.

      Clearly we aren’t at that stage yet.

      For years now I’ve tried to get people to do the opposite of what they always do. The time to buy is when you are scared. The time to sell is when you are ecstatic.

      Still almost no one is capable of doing this. It just goes to show. Human nature never changes.

      1. RTTPD

        I agree……and just sold my two oil stocks.

        Gary —– CNBC reported yesterday afternoon that many many folks are now buying Bitcoin on their credit cards. If that isn’t an ominous sign I don’t know what is.

  12. Goild

    Today we will likely end up with a small DOJI as the gold market is pausing to think the next move on Monday. Thus buy the dips, short the peaks.
    I am done for the day ๐Ÿ™‚

  13. Gary Post author

    So far it looks like the S&P will hold the breakout above the bull channel trend line today.

    If we don’t get a pullback to the 10 DMA soon the odds will start to increase significantly that the parabolic phase has begun.

    It’s dangerous to be out of the market now. This is the time when the advice of Old Turkey is most relevant.

          1. Nada

            Not sure what you mean, the closing of the positions have the time-stamps. I only had 5 contracts after yesterdays massive move. Those puts went over 3, so I sold too early. I was scared to death that the damn dip buyers would start rushing in any second ๐Ÿ™‚

          2. vin

            Nada I trust people. Period. In your case not only I trust you, I value your advise. So, no need to rationalize.

            I was just being funny to express my feelings how twisted these markets are. In other words, I feel that is downturn (your first link) is well orchestrated.

  14. primetime

    The whole US govt is in shambles because as previously stated, everyone is hell bent on destroying Trump at any cost to the economy or country. Tax cuts are a joke.

  15. vin

    ooooops! There go bios together with semis.

    Vertically down? No worry! When nasdaq reaches 10k by june I will smiling, and then 20k in a few months after that and I will laughing crazy.

    I am not worried. I know Gary is never wrong.

    1. mustang sally

      Nada; You are just a short term trader, long term nothing has changed just another fart in the wind.

      Talk about a gloater, I give that to you.

      Shortin Sally

    1. Nada

      I dunno, but it looks like the deep state is gong to go after Trump – If we are to believe Flynn is going to say Trump asked him to speak to the Russians.

      1. Don

        I don’t think it;s the deep state after Trump. He has been giving the military-industrial masters what they want which is always a bigger budget and more war. I think it is more likely that a deeply embedded Democrat faction within the government that wants Trump out. it won’t work, in my opinion. The market might fart around for a bit, a pull back was due anyway.

        1. carlvan

          I don’t know why you say that, actually it was the first time I used call on uvxy, and I did this to protect an open long position in a stock I own. I am sorry that posting a trade I made makes you annoyed; I wouldn’t have posted it though, but Goild mentioned UVXY just after I closed my trade.

    1. JJHarmen

      Goild, for Christ’s sake, you said recently that you were making money scalping UVXY and now that it actually presented a rare opportunity for profit, you didn’t have it?

      1. BeachandBiscuits

        Yep. All incoming admins contact foreign governments (and should) as part of transitions….the media is hot and bothered, but it’s a nothingburger.

      1. RTTPD

        It’s nonsense. We should be friends with the Russians and there is nothing wrong with Trump communicating with them.

        Walk into a VA establishment and ask Veterans if they want to go fight the Russians and see what they say…….

        We ought to hand Mueller over to the Taliban so we can move on and stop burning up all this cash.

  16. Don

    Interesting how the bond yields started dropping off last night and now that the ‘news’ is out, the yields have dropped quite sharply . Someone obviously knew what was coming.

      1. Bluebellkid

        One thing I have noticed is when markets are down in the morning they tend to rally a little during lunch time (11:00-1:00 Central time) and then the selloff will continue once lunch is over and vice versa when markets are up in the morning. We shall see but volume is running above yesterday’s levels so at this point it is a distribution day. SOXL has gone below the 200 day (which it has done in the past so nothing new yet) and the semi’s are getting hammered.

  17. mustang sally

    Nada, may I correct you I am not short gold, I am short jdst, still noise just watch the mable markers. They are the centre of turbulence. , long term wins you can have your short trades.

    Mustang Sally.

        1. Lenapowich

          Sally. why did you disappear for so long? Is it because gold wasn’t going along with your predictions? Everyone gets it wrong at times so it’s not a big deal.

          1. mustang sally

            Lena, go read my post Aug 12, I said it was noise and I would be back, so here we are, mable markers are holding true usd 93.60 is the lynch pin, same as in August

            MS

      1. mustang sally

        Nada, read my August 12 post, I said this drop in usd was all noise and there was no sense hanging around. I trust my mable markers and here we are and I am back .

        MS

  18. Gary Post author

    The 5 day RSI has reached oversold on the semi’s.

    Don’t fool yourself into thinking this is a top. It’s just a move down into a HCL triggered by a news event.

    The market will be back making new highs by the FOMC meeting.

    1. carlvan

      Gary, on my charting package, the 5 day RSI was also slightly oversold at 28 for NQ, 2 days ago, that’s interesting and today’s current low is lower but RSI higher, divergence…

  19. bluelagoon

    Charts foretell more downside in XIV/TQQQ/SOXL into next week….question is where we will bounce from next. Funny when I saw Gary’s post I thought to myself, here they go, throwing off the technical guys by piercing through that bull trendline and then smashing it down.

  20. Don

    JJ: I wouldn’t be so sure. I expect we are going see further SM weakness over the next few weeks. The sell off in the semis and tech stocks started a few days ago and I think that may have been a signal for the start of a correction.
    The Trump ‘thing’ will be blamed but that’s just a convenient excuse that gives the media something to talk about.

    1. Gary Post author

      I really doubt the market will be down ahead of an FOMC meeting, especially one where they are going to raise rates again.

      Also sentiment isn’t bullish enough yet to power a multi -week correction.

      We need to get a lot more bears converted to bulls first. That occurs when these corrections recover. It usually takes about 17-20 weeks before everyone finally goes all in. That’s when the smart money hands the bag to the retail money and then gets on the sidelines ahead of the ICL.

        1. roadrunner

          It means Flynn will get a slap on the wrist…maybe a fine. no effect on Trump, except the authoritarian, ignorant, intolerant, bigots in the media and democrat party will be losing their minds with TDS. (Trump Derangement Syndrome). get some popcorn and watch the clown show on CNN.

      1. RTTPD

        He pleaded guilty because he couldn’t afford 3 DC lawyers for three more years at 600 an hour for each.

        All this BS and the Clinton’s have remained Scott free, writing books and speaking engagements

        All this does is make the American people far more circumspect and distrustful of the whole system.

  21. bluelagoon

    I don’t know Gary – the semi’s looked topped out all the way to the monthly chart. I’m not saying we won’t see a bit of a sideways channel while it tops, but getting out of SOXL around now or soon will probably save some $’s.

  22. Gary Post author

    You can tell we’re not even close to a top in the bull market as everytime we get any kind of minor correction everyone starts to assume the market is going to drop many percentage points. When we get to the point where every correction is shrugged off like it’s being done in Bitcoin then we’ll be close.

  23. jeremyl

    Any chance that the next move for gold will be up considering igold has been bouncing/basing on the 40 week moving average for 9 weeks? Looks like pretty good support. Gary youโ€™ve been saying the dollar will start itโ€™s downward trend again in 2 weeks time (post FOMC meeting). Iโ€™ve switched to long JNUG today rather than waiting 2 weeks. Any thoughts?

    1. Gary Post author

      I think we’re getting close to a bottom, but you can’t rule out a very scary bloodbath phase that could possibly test the 1200 level before it’s all over. So it might still be a little premature to buy just yet.

  24. jeremyl

    Also regarding the Bitcoin bubble, have we got to that mass public participation phase yet? I donโ€™t think so. What will allow mass public participation and final blow off could be the CME bitcoin futures that start trading in Dec ( how high will bitcoin go before its bubble pops? 20k 30k?).

    Iโ€™ve been really grateful for all your free reports Gary, really good, thanks.

  25. mustang sally

    Thanks Trader Pete, sorry no Ped. Its time to start watching the mable marker, hgd hit 10 today, if it goes the rest should follow, so if you are long miners be carfull

    Shortin Sally

  26. mustang sally

    Well my first marker has been breached hgd,to closed over 10.0 . The next usd 96.30 usd , gold 1260, next week could be the waterfall we have all been waiting for.

    Happy trails
    Mustang Sally

  27. Kenny

    Mustang Sally and Pedestrian are not the same person. There are zero similarities in the writing style and demeanour. Gary knows who Pedestrian really was. Primetime says he has had coffee with Pedestrian but that just a load of crap.

    1. Gary Post author

      The only information I have is the email address people register with. Obviously one can invent any email address they want. It doesn’t have to be real. When Mustang Sally first showed up her IP address was exactly the same as Pedestrian other than the very last number which would seem to indicate that both people were posting from the same household.

      The fact that neither individual responded to the other would also seem to indicate they were likely the same person. But I’ll allow everyone to decide for themselves whether or not they think the two are the same.

      1. JJHarmen

        Gary, you might want do a bit research on what an IP address can tell us . IP addresses are NOT assigned to individual computers when they are all receiving their internet from the same modem or router. It is the modem that gets assigned an single address. Therefore, five computers in the same house would all have the same IP address. I know because I once worked for a company with a shared internet service and we all had the same IP address despite all having different computers. Furthermore, an IP address alone will only provide general information about the location such as a city or an area in the case of a large city. Not an exact address.
        The fact that you say Pedestrian and Sally had an IP address only one number apart is very strange given that consecutive numbers have absolutely nothing to do with the proximity of two two modems. Two or three neighbors using the same ISP will have completely different IP addresses.
        So, let’s just say that Ped’s and Sally’s addresses being only one digit apart and that being the last one, is extremely odd.

  28. Kenny

    ABC is now backing away from their bombshell Flynn story saying it was a “mistake” and Trump was contacting the Russians as a President, not as a candidate. The American media is infested with a criminal element that just cannot stop telling the lies they always say are coming from unnamed sources.
    The Yanks would be better served getting their news from The Enquirer. Hell, even Alex Jones and Infowars does a better job of telling the truth.

    1. Anthonyo

      Kenny,

      Hussein Obama’s Deep State within the CIA nd State Department which are Globalist tools, along with Mainstream Media (MSM) have colluded to bring down POTUS in a blood-less, crawling coup d’etats.

      Tillerson has cleaned up the state department by firing a lot of the old career diplomats who are 99% Globalist and pro-Islamists coddling(Iran regime). This is a prelude and has opened the door to the getting tough policy with Iran and eventually removing of the mullah regime by economical, financial, and military means.

      MSM is a criminal clique managed and controlled by Globalist corporations who do not want the 180 change of direction POTUS is taking in domestic and foreign affairs.

      But they have been putting their foot in their mouths recently; and the other side(headed by Bannon) is hunting them down (the sexual abuse against a drove of Liberal and Dem MSM operatives in the last 6 months and more coming.) This is like Draining the MSM Swamp.
      And they’re dying of anger because of it.
      We are not through yet though.

      Expect more BS from Mueller and company.
      But Flynn by the fact of his plea bargain has rendered himself a Useless witness for the Deep state investigator.

  29. jacob2

    BTC on the cover of Barrons this week.

    Take aways:

    “birth of a new asset class, big money getting involved as it can’ t ignore the party next door anymore, here to stay, sucking the speculative juices for other assets out of the room.”

    To infinity and beyond. Smart bitcoin tracker can’t be far off.

  30. wifesaidnomoretrading

    ^^^ above error and redaction tells the story behind VIX pop and drop because implications were taken out of context and essentially misread to the market sparking a selling event that may not have been anywhere near that severe if information was relayed correctly. SO, market could really recover in earnest due to ppl ending Friday offside. Yuge reversal coming as apparently everyone got it wrong somehow. So gold should take a hit to the shorts along w major selloff in bonds as rates recover and USD surge. Sunday futures will be pumping more than we have seen in a long while…

        1. Gary Post author

          I find it hilarious that you think this is a good sign. It’s a signal the wall of worry is gone.

          In the fall of 2011 when gold was moving 40-70 points a day, gold bugs everywhere where pissing themselves expecting higher and higher prices.

          I was one of the very few that knew that was a bad sign, not a good one.

          Bull markets need to climb a wall of worry. When that stops it’s not long before everything goes down in flames.

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