I realize that there are probably many people that cannot afford a yearly subscription to the SMT newsletter. Retirees on Social Security, students, or just middle-class working adults trying to support a family. If you fall into this category and would like to register for the premium newsletter but simply can’t afford it, send me an email ([email protected]) explaining your situation. I will choose 10 candidates to receive a yearly SMT subscription at 80% off of the current rate ($100 instead of $500). I will donate that $1000 to my favorite charity.
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Gary very nice!
Great charity!
That is one of the reasons I love ya, you have a heart!!!
Truly a Christmas miracle. 🙂
lol
A very nice initiative from someone who is a real trader that can help his subscribers.
You’re telling the truth
Very nice! Thank you.
Gary, you are a compassionate, caring person. Merry Christmas to you.
You truly are a gentleman. Have a Merry Christmas! Prosper by helping others. Very nice Gary.
Good job Gary.
Bravo, Gary!! Good Karma!
Yes, a very nice gesture.
It actually makes me sick sometimes to come on here and listen to these pathetic parasites and trolls, continually whining and trying to goad you into no-win responses. And yet, you still rise above it.
Bravo !
Sounds like someone is angling for that discount subscription!
I’m a long time subscriber, but I would indeed switch from monthly to annual if there is an appropriate deal.
That aside, I honestly shake my head when I read some of the crap Gary puts up with. He does not need this blog and none of this ill behaviour exists on the subscription blog.
Ped, you have graciously helped me a couple of times and I thank you for your analysis. You even correctly called the current plunge in the metals many MONTHS ago. But you cheapen yourself by making trolling attacks. And once it starts, then of course you open yourself up to others attacking you………..and the cycle continues.
I hope you (and others) can ease up on the negative comments, because I really believe you and others are doing yourself a disservice. All of your insight and positive analysis gets lost in the negativity.
Please don’t take this as a slanderous attack, because this is not my intent.
Yes, I did call the gold decline. Funny but you are the only one who recalls as so many others kept insisting I didn’t know what in hell I was talking about. Where I went wrong most recently though was with the idea gold would see a retest of the September peak. Must have gotten bitten in my sleep by the gold bugs since I am not normally that far off my game. Anyway, where gold sits right now is at a very precarious level on the monthly chart. Have a look for yourself. Draw a channel line across the peaks of 2011, 2012 and 2016 and you will see gold is about to backtest the primary resistance line. That is to say that if gold bounces then prior resistance will become the new support. On the other hand, if gold drops below the line during December (as I contend it will) then expect the beginning of a new bull market to be delayed for many more months yet.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m1
I would argue that the only thing that matters right now is when the dollar rolls over and begins the bear market in earnest. I’m expecting it to occur on, or a day or two on either side of the FOMC meeting.
Once that occurs gold will complete it’s bloodbath phase and I expect the next intermediate cycle gold will finally breakout of this frustrating basing pattern it’s been in all year.
Here’s the thing though, if we do get a rate rise it means bond prices will fall. Since gold tracks the 10 year (in a general sort of way) that will most likely push gold under the support line and leave us with a failed December back-test. We should anticipate a year end price close of 1200 thereabouts. We are only on week 4 of this decline so it could easily run into January before the cycle bottoms. If you run a channel support line using a weekly chart there is a great potential bounce point coming up just a few bucks over 1200 dollars. Here is the chart: Just draw across the bottom low points of 2015 and 2016 to see what I mean.
And if that support does not hold then look out below!
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=w1
As I’ve gone over before, support levels, trend lines, EW counts, etc. etc. None of that makes a darn bit of difference. All that matters is when the dollar tops and when sentiment reaches extreme’s. When those two come together it doesn’t matter one bit what came before. Gold will complete the YCL and start a new intermediate rally.
This is why cycle lows almost always break the uptrend lines. That’s what causes all the technical traders to panic and sell. Then they start extrapolating all kinds of lower targets. But what actually happens is that the smart money is buying what all these people are selling and then we get our bottom and price turns and goes the other way. Leaving all the technical traders scratching their heads wondering what the hell just happened.
Just read your post Gary. Sorry to say but I cannot disagree more. This is the reason you miss so many trades since you don’t take channels, support and resistance lines seriously. How can you possible know what is happening most days?
A perfect example is your dead wrong assessment that the dollar is about to roll over and begin a bear market decline by falling in earnest. Just a casual check of the channels shows gold is holding firmly above the support line it backtested in September. The likelihood of the dollar breaking down diminishes by the day and you would be better off setting your sights on 1.05 than new lows.
Likewise the Euro is now at a critical juncture and set up for a nasty fall. That will be the big story of 2018 in my opinion since the decline has the potential to be quite notable.
So please stop saying everything is working out “exactly” as you said it would. This is just one example of where you will be proven incorrect in the forecast. Unfortunately for you when you get the dollar and euro wrong you will get all your other trades wrong as well since most everything hinges on what happens in the currency markets.
Check your channels Gary. Those are not in the same category as Elliot Waves. Not even in the same universe. The euro is toast next year and USD is primed to soar higher. The gold bugs you old subscriptions too should take heed or they will all end up on the wrong side of the trade.
I think you are going to be flat out wrong again. The dollar has wasted 13 weeks of an intermediate cycle and gone nowhere. The euro and the yen have broken their intermediate down trend lines indicating the odds are high they have both begun new intermediate degree rallies. That means the dollar should be starting a new intermediate decline.
The dollar has completed a swing high as of this morning. It’s possible the top has occurred slightly ahead of the FOMC meeting.
Watch and weep Gary. You and the subs are going to get smoked on your gold trades since you are advising them the the ICL has almost ended and its up, up and away from here into a new gold bull market.
When the dollar starts to rise (in earnest) the impact of gold will most definitely be felt around this place. No offense man but you are far too confident of yourself on this subject. And that kind of cockiness almost always gets traders in trouble.
I recommend you check the channels. If the algo’s are programmed around those support and resistance lines then its a wonder why you refuse to consider them. I can go to literally any stock or commodity chart and prove that channels are a fact of daily life and that the market does indeed buy and sell around those lines.
So its not like I am making anything up here. The evidence of channels as a valuable tool is self evident and easily proven.
You have no idea what you are talking about.
First off we haven’t taken any long trades in gold yet. I’m waiting until I think the ICL has bottomed.
Second I’ve been very adamant that subs put no more than 20% of their portfolio in metal trades. It’s in a difficult basing pattern. It’s not easy to make money in this kind of environment so there’s no call to risk much money in the sector.
No one is going to get seriously hurt as long as they follow my suggestions.
Awesome gesture to people and dogs!
Outstanding Gary. God bless you!
Tx Gary, but no thanks. People are so easily manipulated these days ..
Bye bye bitCrap, that is one thing that I fully agree about, holy smokes.
Soon you are able to short it on mass scale.
The last forecast coming later today and with added comments so it’s possible for Nada to grasp the concept explained 🙂
There is a STORM coming!
Evening All . Just keep and eye on 93.60 usd, if they can;t get it below, gold is dead in the water.
MS
bitcoin @17k again? When will people learn?
When something is going vertically up it is prudent to buy on dips instead of being scared. Hasn’t Gary told us that so may times?
OK gurus? Where to from here? 50k? or 100k within a year?
Or, does everybody agree with Gary that it will be 1k within a year?
BITCOIN EXPLODES UP THROUGH $18,000 !!!
So sad! All those people jumping on the bandwagon.
?????? I would so say sad for those who are frozen with fear and could not avail this real “vertically up” opportunity. Gary says in vertically up situations one should buy on dips. Unfortunately, people get scared and they miss the opportunity.
SAD???>>>>>>>>>>>…SAD is 99% of the so-called ANALYST community who missed the greatest opportunity of a lifetime in our time to make some serious fast money due to their biased and limited lack of vision.
What is even more sad is that after missing such a many lives-time opportunity they will give you all these tall stories that that was a right move. LOL!
I wrote three letters yesterday. One to my congressman and one to each of my senators, imploring them not to spend a single penny on any bailor or even an investigation when Bitcoin crashes.
Even if they try to blame the crash on the Russians or the Dear leader Kim — Not a single penny of US tax payer money to be spent…..
Surely that emotional letter writing make you feel better.
https://www.health.harvard.edu/healthbeat/writing-about-emotions-may-ease-stress-and-trauma
But it didn’t make you any money. This Spring….I GUARANTEE you – with Bitcoin performance a few letters won’t do.
You’ll need to write a book !
Impressive.
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-hit-50000-next-year-private-venture-capitalist/
Another guru
bitCoin R.I.P 1st Jan 2018 🙂 sorry for not posting my roadmap for Gold.
I will try later today or tomorrow, by this week for sure!
Hurry Steff! Holding my breath here ! ! !
Hurry selling your bitcoins instead 🙂 by 25k it’s dead … 1st of Jan 2018 Full Moon!
No that is unfair, bitcoin maybe the future for payments, but we need the btc balloon to go *poof* first!
If gold is going to 5000 it will have to turn vertical. The difference is that’s about 300% is all. BTC was 1000 last year. So at 1800% and may just be getting started. Now you have shorters that can add fuel as they get burned and cover.
Yeah, we could have all been millionaires.
During the mature phase of a bubble investors always find ways to ignore the obvious.
Price stretched 140% above the 200 DMA.
Extreme public interest, magazine covers, references in TV shows, etc.
Price action starts to change. Bigger percentage moves higher and more and more unsophisticated investors jump in late and start to chase.
Seriously folks do you really think this time will be different?
I can assure you it won’t. All bubbles end the same way, and all bubbles produce the same emotion patterns on the way up. People become convinced there is no downside risk, regression to the mean won’t apply this time. In the end they all come down in flames.
Playing musical chairs with a late stage bubble is a quick way to get rich… and then a quick way to get broke.
Joe and Suzy six pack first started hearing of bitcoin around Sept. / Oct.. You’ve always said that bubbles burst about a year after the public wakes up to them. One thing’s for sure … we’ll find out what happens down the road a piece. I’ve got some skin in the game (dogs in the hunt) so here’s to hoping you’re wrong on this one. You’re scaring me though … I wouldn’t buy at this price. Last I checked Sentimentrader had dumb money at 97% bullish.
There is an old rule in investing under such conditions. When the price double, one can sell half to make the capital investment zero. Then one becomes less emotional.
If it doubles again, one can sell half again to make a 100% profit with the remaining 25% shares still in hand to enjoy the game.
Good luck.
Good morning,
Let us make money today.
Let us have wise and sound trading today.
JNUG seems to continue being resilient in relation to NUGT,
Just brilliant, I totally agree with Aaron here, a big thumbs up for his effort to explain the situation to exited btc-kids!
https://youtu.be/0XmjnFboXZ0
In preparation for my update, look at this chart, it’s a good one. Found it at goldtent.
Do you you see the pattern, it’s quite obvious and it predicts the future for Gold imo:
https://goldtadise.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Gold-09DEC17.png
It’s a bouncing ball …
… what happens after each bounce?
“… what happens after each bounce?”
Bitcoin goes to 100k? LOL!
no vin the chart above is a Gold chart 😛
Who cares about gold when bitcoin is the real game in town?
NY explosion and gold is down!!!!!!!
Sometimes I feel that Trump is not diplomatic enough for the post. BUT then such frequent incidents make me wonder about all those “politically correct” %&^^&* leaders.
Gold caught a small bid this morning when the details were first reported, but after the threat was contained, markets continued as they should. I guess we trade in complete boredom until Wednesday.
Hey Gary, I would LOVE to hear the stories you receive, I am sure there will be some real tear jerkers. How about posting them on the site for us all to see (anonymously)? The entertainment factor would be most welcomed!
Hi Nada! I used to feel like that. Whenever a drunk or an addict would ask for change I used tell him/her to stop drinking or go look for a job etc. I NEVER used to give a penny to anyone unless I judged the person to be deserving.
But, then things changed. I have learnt not to judge people. If someone is begging then one is in need, period. I give not because I am good or go to heaven or change the society or even help the one who is begging. I give for a simple reason. And, it is quite selfish. I feel good. Things will happen as the must.
I find that Gary is a great human being to have come up with this idea. I wish that he does well both in helping others in making money, and of-course for himself.
You have a great day.
“I give for a simple reason. And, it is quite selfish. I feel good.” lol, love the honesty Vin. However, this is a bit different, don’t you think?
We are not talking about some guy on the street asking for some change for food or thunderbird wine. I presume we would hear sad stories as to why someone has a “hardship” case, but yet has extra money to throw into the stock market! That’s laughable. It’s equivalent to a guy standing on the corner with a sign asking for some spare cash so he can play the derivatives market.
Yep! You are right in a way.
According to the charts, it looks like the price of silver may fall to $14 or lower, and the price of gold may fall to $1,050 or lower.
Damn it! I was waiting for sub 1000 post before declaring a bottom. We are getting closer 🙂
LOL
LOL!
Silver is pulling down though Platinum shows a sign resilience.
Dammed LABU is down AGAIN! Though indl is up.
There is something to say about the ANT trading style. It does produce money.
I am done for the day with not shares left on the Table.
Will along with others let GOLD sink further.
Thank you, Goild. I have been waiting. Got jnug at 12.85, the first lot.
I will have to admit I have no clue re bitcoin. If the public is just now becoming aware of it and IF some of those who have recently become aware of it start buying, then yes, this bubble ain’t nearing the popping stage. Another year? Possible. But the volatility is insane.
And what impact will futres trading have on the underlying price? Will the big boys be able to push the underlying around like they do in so many other markets? Is it possible that small players start to get out and instead buy into other crypto’s?
It’s tempting to take a small position just to make the watching and charting of the thing more compelling. But I will wait till middle to late January before I do that.