156 thoughts on “BUBBLE OR SECULAR BULL MARKET TOP

    1. Gary Post author

      None in my opinion. The dollar will continue its bear market, and gold will continue its bull.

    2. davidch14

      if this scenario were to play out… i would expect exp central bank intervention over time. don’t see how that would not eventually lead to inflation incl gold and commodities (and relative neg effects on currencies)… personally, i would likely inc total % of my investments in those areas…

  1. ted

    Here I agree with Gary. Makes sense. Everyone is looking for a top. It won’t be the kind of top they’ve had in the past. It will be a churning top with many counter rallies. It will suck for the bears and the bulls. But the early bulls will be fine since they are way ahead of the game.

  2. davidch14

    interesting… so your leaning back to secular bull instead of bubble negating any sig neg effects as long as massive central bank intervention continues indefinitely and i assume exponential in and of itself with each small draw down in mrkts. my only concern would be that would be in contrast to what we have seen in almost every parabolic move of this magnitude where 50-90% corrections followed since the tulips… if that does happen (i.e. no neg consequences)… central banks will be falling over themselves to print money. not just us, jap and euro.. but would expect all the countries in world to follow suit

    1. Gary Post author

      The difference is that he’s looking for a 15-20 year bull. I think things may unfold faster now in our modern markets helped along with government support. This time the bull may only last 10 years before needing a consolidation phase.

  3. Gallo

    I wonder if you would be willing to apply that same analysis to Bitcoin. It doubled in a month. You are suggesting the Nasdaq could potentially almost triple from here in 6 months after which you are open to the idea of a rest of sorts for a few years in the markets but they will not experience a 2000 bubble scenario. Are you similarly open to the possibility that Bitcoin may experience something very similar and it may not be in a 2000 Nasdaq bubble scenario where a bottom is not seen for years and new highs possibly never again?

    1. Gary Post author

      Seriously crypto currencies are nothing more than magic beans. Governments simply aren’t going to let people create their own money. China, Korea and Japan are already putting a stop to it. On top of that we are seeing how easily these exchanges can be hacked and beans can be stolen.

      Maybe there is a use for the underlying technology but it’s not going to be so every Tom, Dick and Harry can print his own currency. Or maybe a decentralized ledger system is nothing more than a solution without a problem.

    2. Americano

      Gallo, I’m totally with you. I caught on last February about the hanky panky correlation with JNUG ( already an abstraction to a gold play) thanks to Gary & I bailed and went Huge into Bitcoin in March. Then I transferred IRA to Bitcoin in September. All actual Bitcoin not GBTC.
      I have found that Gary’s advice regarding Nasdaq is useful for me regarding Bitcoin. I just pretend he’s talking about Bitcoin & it helps me assess where I’m at. I think it’s $25K June, $50K EOY.
      I GET that most thinks this is nuts. But they thought that at $3K too. I chalk it up to network effect with Inelastic supply ( plus Lightning network is JUST starting).
      Advice here is best anywhere, but Gary just won’t go that way.
      It’s cool. I like Ford trucks but still have great rapport with friend that have Chevy trucks. It’s cool.

      1. Vortex

        Americano,

        I really enjoy gary’s analysis on the general markets, but he and the rest of the bugs couldn’t be more wrong on the crypto markets as the future unfolds.

        Its ok when I see total hatred for all and anything in the crypto space. It validates that the world hasn’t got a clue to the evolution of the digital age. I still own and invest in gold and mining stocks but in no way is that the future nor do I think it will hold much relevance as time goes by. Gold and Silver had its time and may still shine to some degree, but that to will fade.

        People act as if Bitcoin burned their house down or did something personal to them. Its completely illogical. Crypto is just mathmatic’s and computer code, that can transfer value in an instant without barriers. Thats just the base case.

        Gary, and all the bugs who shit on the blockchain space everyday will eventually all be involved in some form of crypto currency in their lives. Its just a matter of time.

        That is a virtual certainty, so disparage away.

        The comedy of Gary calling Bitcoin and by association all crypto currencies magic beans is illuminating to say the least. Its going to be a beautiful ride when these guys and gals join the party.

    1. Gary Post author

      I won’t rule it out, but I won’t be shorting the stock market. Now that we no longer have free markets who knows whether a bubble can collapse or not.

      1. TheSmartMoney

        Attachment

        Maybe the Caracas Stock Exchange points the way.

        Short? No. Leverage Long? Yes…now.
        The answer is very clear from subscribers’ account balances acting on your calls.

        Liberty is vanishing on many fronts.

  4. Bob

    Thanks Gary, Very interesting theory and it gives reason to hope. One significant transformative change from prior secular bulls I didn’t hear you explicitly state (though you did indicate “….they won’t let it happen.”) was a relatively recent change in the capacity of financial leaders to fend off the impacts of significant collapse and pull things back up again.
    They didn’t have that capacity before and so collapses were “normal”. Since the early 30’s, and likely much earlier, comfort came from ‘It will come back, we just aren’t sure when, but it always has before’. Now, they have the ability to “fix it”. We just aren’t sure of the long-term response but for now, (given the arrogance of humanism), we’re pretty sure we can fix anything. But that’s something for the next generation to work on.

    Not to say the concept wasn’t fully woven into the theory of where we’re going, just to identify it as a transformative change, which, I think, we presume as normal.

  5. Duuuuuude

    I trade gold, silver and platinum futures. I was long all three until this week. At some point in time and I never know which, any one of these metals will out perform the other. Because of this I just trade an even number of contracts of all of them. Platinum has out performed so far this cycle.

    Somebody asked earlier if there was a platinum ETF. Investopedia has just updated their top platinum ETF’s. https://www.investopedia.com/etfs/top-platinum-etfs/ There is also a 2X platinum fund LPLT.

  6. Duuuuuude

    Attachment

    Silver has not been easy to trade this year relative to gold and platinum. I am contemplating just avoiding silver all together.

  7. Margret Kopala

    FYI hereunder is very reliable analysis about what’s happening in the bond markets. As Gary has indicated, the bubble scenario looks safe for the time being but a shadow is looming. The question is not whether, but when and how big the correction will be and whether this proves we are in a secular bull or a bubble market. I’ll try to post something on this as well. Since the Andrew Evans Pritchard link may not open and I am not allowed to share the Market Intelligence Report, I provide some notes from each. The Louise Yamada link should be operational.

    Andrew Evans Pritchard Jan 10
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/01/10/global-bond-rout-has-begun-leaving-equities-borrowed-time/

    -when bond tide turns, world economic system faces regime change
    – have declined since Nineties when deflation (internet, cheap labour – China, Eastern Europe joined global economy) fed falling US yields.
    -downtrend line is now broken with implications for the $49 trillion market. According to Louise Yamada, two-year treasury is canary in the coal mine, up 74 bps since September “Bond bull market of last 36 years is over,” she says, and recommends getting out of bonds with a duration over two years. Individuals or pension funds who hold will suffer a relentless loss of real wealth. A rise in 10 year bonds to 3pc clinches the argument.
    -also what Bill Gross (and, now, Ray Dalio) is saying but bond bulls defiantly stick to deflation script resulting from globalisation and digital commerce.
    -mood change results from news that BoJ is reducing purchases and stepping back from biggest monetary experiment in history. Also its economy is blooming. Also Fed is tightening, thus reducing liquidity. ECB halved purchases in January.
    -loose parallels with ’87: fiscal spending and tight labour markets didn’t offset high debt levels and though bond markets were sending warning signals, the stock markets hit nosebleed levels. This worked while interest rates were low but equities started to buckle under their own weight. A rate rise by the Bundesbank provided the catalyst.
    -IMF is now saying a fifth of US firms risk bankruptcy on a rate rise. Epicentre of trouble is the lower half of the Russell 2000. Rule of thumb according to Louise Yamada is that weaker stocks buckle before the larger indices roll over. Another rule of thumb is that advance/decline lines deteriorate 4-6 months before the sell-off. Equities can prosper until the 10 year reaches 5 pc. But no one knows the pain threshold for a global financial system with record debt of 332pc of gdp.
    -AEP guesses that trouble will start before the 10- year yield reaches 3.5pc, with global dollar squeeze and rate contagion to Turkey, South Africa and China also underway. This is some way off.

    Here’s Louise Yamada
    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/01/03/louise-yamada-this-bond-bull-market-is-over.html

    MIR, the Institutional Strategist Jan 11

    China announcement re cutting Treasury purchases was timed to precede a release of tough new trade policies from the White House. The ten-year Treasury yields broke above 2.5pc, a point at which another 100-200 bps could occur. 200 bps means a stop to stock market gains, or even losses.

    1. ocram

      This is what I was trying to ask Gary about what will happen AFTER a debt implosion.
      This is not just a financial/economic issue,of course we should have inflation on that camp,but it should be also a complete change in the social/political camp.
      Since 1982 we’ve had globalisation (that accelerate from 1989 with the fall of the Berlin wall)massive illegal and legal immigration,the EU,the euro,a continue deflation in electronic machines like pc smartphones etc…as well as in wages,a continue deterioration of “culture” (I mean people is much dumber than in any other era,this also “thanks” to the continue use of electronic devices that have taken the place of human brain) what counts since 1982 is QUANTITY over QUALITY .
      Will all these trends reverse?
      Will we have wars in order to re-estabilsh a different order?
      Will nationalism will return?
      Will EU split?
      People are used to have any kind of help ,from social security to pensions etc….
      What will happen if these helps will be reduced greatly?
      Probably is not the stock market that we should take a look at,but the bond market,of course the most pratical way would be to print an insane amount of money for the governments in order to not create panic,but this would create also a huge inflation,this is the route Gary thinks we are headed to,and he is probably right,but every time societies shift from an order to the other many unexpected things could happen.

  8. Gary Post author

    Attachment

    Notice the change in character of the market on the monthly chart. The parabolic phase began on January 2.

    1. ras

      Indeed. Those who moved out of jnug into udow/tqqq in early January have done well. Earnings release on Thursday Feb 1 amc :aapl, amzn, googl. Probably, tqqq will spike on Friday Feb2, with some profit taking.

  9. Gary Post author

    Attachment

    Compare to October and November of 99 as the parabolic phase of the tech bubble began.

    1. jacob2

      So when does this rally finally burn itself out? Betting a sizable correction to follow. Not in any of these but some pro dollar, anti bubble ETF’s look interesting for reversals: ERY, DUST, TZA, QID, TZA. AT the very least a hedge. A Long term lonely bull , a decade, turning lonely bearish. Heresey I know.

    2. tulip

      Jan 28 Controlled Demolition of the Markets – Dollar, Next Treasuries, then Stockmarket – Gold, Silver & PM Stocks to Soar… Clive Maund CM 321gold

  10. Americano

    Such a Loooooooong January. Parallels between American Pilgrims, even Hebrews as they wandered the Sinai desert prior to entering the Promised Land are uncanny.
    Spring approaches. The thaw is near.
    Bitcoin Thanksgiving…
    About to appear.
    From the Mayflower…
    It’s absolutely clear.
    Good luck to all in the upcoming week !

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s very unlikely we would have two bubble’s inflating simultaneously. I’m pretty confident the Bitcoin bubble has burst and the money is now going into the stock market. When the stock bubble tops the liquidity will move to the commodity markets.

      1. MrBurns

        Have you looked at Bitcoin from cycles point of view? Just for the heck of it?

        Not interested in that myself, just curious.

    2. Jim Dandy

      Hopium, the most costly drug of all. February will be far worse for bitcoin, it´s already sliding the back side of a parabola. It dosen´t matter that wie will all be using digital currency one day, we already do, nor is bitcoin private as bitclowns purport. Combined with all the brazen theft, and more importantly no recourse, it looks like a lot of fools are going to get hurt as regulations pop up to remedy the situation. Of course, Bitclowns will say it´s a good thing even as they championed the decentralization months before, just like they cheered futures on bit-token and Golden Sacks getting involved. Love is blind, that´s for sure.

  11. Margret Kopala

    Attachment

    Thanks for this analysis Gary. With a few caveats and if I am hearing you correctly, I believe it is on the right track.

    By way of delving even further into the question, and with thanks to jyoung, I am re-posting his S&P Historical Composite chart of a few days ago as I believe it provides clear illustration of how the market responds to economic developments, particularly as they play out within the Kondratieff long economic cycle, also known as the Technological Transition cycle.

    Two K-cycles appear in the chart, along with the beginning of the most recent K-wave. The first starts at 1877, the second at 1949 and the most recent in 2009. Keep these in mind as you read on.
    First, a reminder that the 60+/- year Kondratieff cycle tracks the process of expansion, crisis and contraction in capitalist economies. The contractionary phase results from deterioration in the durable/capital goods sectors (things rust out, wear out or run out – think sink holes and crumbling bridges, depleted or unacceptable energy supplies) to which capitalism responds with innovation. As investment pours in to sort out winners and losers, these innovations/discoveries in energy and capital goods then drive a cycle of growth during which stimulus, spending and investment inevitably overshoot with the equally inevitable crash and economic decline not far behind.

    Another factor in the cycle is the paradigm shift that results from the mass movements of people from the land and into cities. While this is massively “dislocative” causing depressions and even wars, not to mention social and political change, it is also the biggest factor driving growth which in turn is the biggest factor driving the creation of global hegemons. Spurred by steel and coal, Europe underwent this process in 19th century. With oil and the internal combustion engine, North America did the same in the 20th century at which time China got its start. Now we are seeing this process taking hold in Asia and Africa, both of which should benefit from innovations in solar energy.

    The K- cycle consists of four financial/economic dynamics which are popularly described in seasonal terms:
    1) Reflationary Spring (massive stimulus via money printing or, under the gold standard, gold discoveries or repricing of gold, innovations are in discovery phase, markets rise in response to stimulus while the previous economy’s crash survivor/winners, approach their saturation phase to become dividend paying utilities. Today that is the digital economy, which is playing out in the FAANG and related stocks ie the app economy)
    2) Inflationary Summer (new innovations mature, stimulus takes hold particularly in commodities while previous economy winners – FAANGS – max out. Markets consolidate, and cause a recession and a crash – ie 1982 and 1987
    3) Disinflationary Autumn (more stimulus is applied – ie Reaganomics used dollar devaluation via the Plaza Accord plus military spending. Markets respond as both stimulus and now well developed innovations catch fire ie Clinton era. This period leads to market bubbles in the truly transformative innovations of the era reducing consumer prices and therefore inflation, hence disinflation. Growth in the Clilnton era, however, resulted from a financialized economy, not productive capacity which was being digitized and globalized).
    4) Deflationary Winter (markets crash in epic style – think 1873 led by railway stocks, in 1929 auto related stocks, 2000 dotcoms; governments respond with last gasp measures, ie subprime mortgages to stabilise and to keep the old economy going creating bubbles anew which again collapse and bottom the cycle.)

    With the Reflationary Springs underway from 1877, 1949 and 2009, and the subsequent inflationary, disinflationary and deflationary periods marked in red and blue, the S&P Historical Composite chart illustrate how the current cycle is pretty well pre-ordained. Most likely we are looking at another 5 to 10 years of reflation to work its way into the economy leading to a longer period of inflationary growth.

    Gary’s hypothesis that market movements will be foreshortened as a result of accelerating innovations might make sense if we knew what those truly transformative innovations are and what effect they will have. One school of thought says we are nowhere near having innovations with the transformative impact of steel, electricity, and the computer. Electric cars? I don’t think so, though it will be great to have cleaner air and quieter streets. Artificial intelligence? Maybe. This could be really deflationary. Space travel? Sure, some big changes there. Quantum computing? You bet. Biotech? Keeping people healthy longer will be great. Maybe we will get a wiser world.

    The really big challenge is energy. Fossil fuels drove the biggest growth spurt ever in human history. What will replace them? Will they be replaced? Innovation is useless without cheap energy. This is why there are so many question marks over the energy sector.

    Whatever the transformative innovation, there’s also the question of how long it takes to work its way through the economy. Historically, this has required TWO Kondratieff cycles: discovery in the KSpring. development in the K Summer, bubbling in the Autumn, crash and sorting out winners and losers in the Winter, before they saturate and lead the inflationary upswing in the next cycle’s Spring and Summer.
    You can see how much time is required when you consider a) the main frame computer was discovered in 1949 and, b) only gained a foothold in the eighties economically followed by the dotcom bubble crash in 2000, c) that the digital economy it spawned only started its saturation phase in 2009, not to d) peak for another 10? 20?, years.

    Similarly the internal combustion engine was discovered in the late 1800s, which Texas oil gushers made viable in the early 1900s. These drove economic expansion and markets into the 1929 crash, before saturating the markets in the late seventies. Even then, Apple didn’t overtake Exxon Mobil’s number one market cap spot until a few years ago.

    Also notable is how the trajectory of markets since 2009 is on a course that matches almost exactly the markets of 1949.

    The big caveat is that black swans hover as never before in the global economy, most particularly our debt levels. Indeed when I wrote the Dogbone Portfolio, http://dogboneportfolio.com/ I fully believed these would delay a recovery until 2020. And yes, that debt must be addressed. Roosevelt did it in 1932 by confiscating, manipulating and repricing gold. This eliminated the debt and unleashed a torrent of infrastructure spending. Nineteen thirty seven brought a garden variety recession but it was WWII that prevented the total recovery. Even so, the supply of military vehicles and equipment to Europe as it underwent the ultimate deflationary event established the manufacturing and infrastructure base that suburbanised, plasticised, electronicised and hegemonicised America from the 1950s on.

    Today, as we all agree, the real bubble (or worse) is in bitcoin https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/why-bitcoin-is-a-bubble-by-nouriel-roubini-2018-01 but also cannabis. Doug Casey says these are the result of politically caused distortions.

    Like subprime mortgages, they are questionable bubbles unlike the good bubbles that encourage speculative investing that spur innovation and sort out winners and losers that then change the world.

    In the meantime, the tech sector is doing its saturating/diffusionary duty. Certainly it can’t hurt to prepare for a bubble and hope for the secular bull. With all the money sloshing around, we will certainly get some of each. History teaches however that the reflationary K-spring and inflationary K-summer together last several decades, a time frame we have only just begun. The trick will be to time the turn. Gary’s pretty good at that.

    On a final note, here’s a chart of secular markets further deconstructed along K-cycle lines by Ian Gordon’s excellent, but no longer active, Longwave Analyst group.
    http://www.longwavegroup.com/market/charts/_pdf/Secular_Market_Chart_Four_seasons0916C.pdf

    Margret

      1. Vortex

        Nouriel Roubini & Paul Krugman are true and pure statists. If Bitcoin and other Cryptos were useless and worthless a logical person wouldn’t even waste time commenting on them.

        But the truth is they know deep inside where the future is going.

        You’ll never hear “apologies” or “I was wrong” admissions from these hacks in the future.

        It just pure comedy to hear these people quoted in the mainstream sphere as reliable experts on anything.

    1. victor

      Thank you for info. Traded ngas for many years , had to sell last two times with a loss. That’s it, no more.

      1. minerguy

        Yeah. Crazy how fast things are changing. I followed natgas awhile, hoping to learn to invest in it, especially after they finally built that port in Louisiana to export it. http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/business/article_50746ab0-4c81-11e7-883d-6bfcf07fe83f.html
        I suppose it will stay a legacy energy source of sorts that we may use for political purposes (damaging the Russian economy, etc.). Tough to try and predict a price on something like that…

  12. DaZeD

    Gary,

    I appreciate your opinions on what the market can be doing, but I cannot agree with your assessment of the paradigm of technology advancement. I work in the semiconductor industry, and would say that the advancement of this sector is completely the opposite of what you have described. The sector itself is stagnating with no advancement in hardware in the past few years. Sure we have made lots of smart phones and that has been a very important driver of growth in the past decade but we have reached a point of hardware saturation that cannot be fixed by improvements in software.

    Researchers in the semiconductor industry are completely lost, and in terms of manufacturing it is completely evident that Moore’s Law with silicon will continue and nothing will change in the industry. There is currently nothing in the pipeline to provide what smartphones and mobile did, providing the consumer with a device that enabled something new with new functionality. In the 90s the desktop computer and internet provided growth, after that came laptops and then smartphones provided growth in the mobile era. Any hype of hyper technology advancement to a singularity is purely hype. If technology was advancing so rapidly, then companies would not be repackaging the same product in different ways to attempt to differentiate their product from others.

    1. Gary Post author

      AI, Nano technology, robotics, biotech, autonomous automobiles, space exploration just to name a few.

      1. DaZeD

        These are all related to the semiconductor industry. A lot of these topics are all the same as previous topics and have been re-branded by different names to give hype.

        AI is an extension of the automation that was going on during the dot com bubble. If you want to make the argument about brain-inspired computing, this topic becomes hot again every 10 years since the 1970s and results in some specialized chips but never a revolution in computing.

        Nanotechnology is simply technology that is on the nanometer scale. Anyone who knows something about technology knows that you call yourself nanotechnology when nothing is real. Real examples of nanotechnologies: CPUs, communication, Telecom, GPUs, sensors, mobile, computing, servers, cloud

        Robotics is another old topic, we have been here before but are making gains still. I am not saying that there is nothing new here, but I want to say that it’s not new and is not progressing at rate that would justify an exponential increase at this point.

        Autonomous automobiles is the most innovative technology on your list. It will revolutionize the way we live, but the technology is still in its infancy. Nobody owns a single autonomous vehicle yet and market capitalization gains in it are speculation which would be characteristic of bubble behavior.

        I don’t want to say that a secular bull market will not happen, but I want to point out that I don’t believe that technology is advancing at rates that would be any faster than before. I am a researcher myself and in fact all I see is the opposite of what you are saying. Science and academics are not making faster progress in discoveries, quite the contrary.

    2. vin

      DaZe, Gary has made an excellent point. btw I also am involved in a one particular aspect of one particular technology which may not be considered very high tech.

      And, I don’t completely disagree with your assertion. Though a consideration of the following will put things in perspective. First, you have limited the analysis to one part of the technology advance. Yes, at present the scope of hardware part is limited. But, software hasn’t come even close to catching up yet. Wonders can be reaped from the hardware with proper programming and it will happen though all of it may not happen in California.

      Second, as Gary has correctly pointed out there are many other technologies (even the hardware) which have just started to sprout.

      Thirdly, when evaluating technology advances it will be a mistake to limit to the US alone. Of-course China has only now started to become more independent in this area. But, the country which cannot and must not be ignored is India. Exciting things are happening there for a change. It is a bit early to know the outcome but as they say coming events cast their shadows before.

      That is why one of my favorite investment is INDL.

      Cheers.

      1. DaZeD

        Vin, I think that the opinion that we may be beginning a secular bull market is very possible and I won’t rule that out. I have followed what Gary has said, and am very happy in doing so. I also agree with you the innovation right now is in software. That being said, I would like to use his own words against him and suggest that he is rationalizing the increase in prices which could come from other reasons rather than the accelerating innovation such as the effect of QE like he mentions in his video.

        1. Gary Post author

          In my opinion there is no doubt the market is transitioning into a bubble as the retail public is starting to flock into the market. My question is whether or not the bubble will implode as central banks now seem to be able to intervene and keep markets inflated. So instead of a collapse that would normally happen after a bubble we may possibly end up with three or four years of sideways consolidation.

        2. vin

          DaZeD, Thanks for your response. Again, I do not disagree with your assessment as to what will drive the economy. And, I am aware that there is a strong relationship between the market and the economy. However, they don’t always move in locked steps. There can be a discrepancy at any given time and sometimes this nonalignment can last for a long time.

          So coming back to the situation at hand, the markets today are not cheap anywhere and by any standard. So, what is fueling the rise? It has to be liquidity. No? I think the question Gary is struggling with is what after that. Will it collapse once it reaches the moon? At this moment he feels that it may not. Why? First he feels that in the short run those in power have the means to stop that from happening. Second, he feels that technological advances will not let it happen in the long run.

          Do I agree with him? I have my doubts about the ability of those in power to correct the situation under sever conditions. I fully understand that it takes long time for the technological advances to affect the economy.

          Having said all that I am simply impressed with Gary’s ability to predict the market. I can’t really pinpoint what it is but somehow he seems to feel the pulse of the market quite well. It is simply impressive. I rarely put my money when advised by others even when they are certified and recognized advisers. Gary is an exception. And, so far I can’t complain.

          His advise to subscribers has been superb. In fact today I am planning to put some more money in SM.

    3. ocram

      This is a booming sector!!!! Analog audio!! Vinyl,turntables,analog synths,reel to reel tapes etc…are living a renaissance.
      It’s not for the masses of course but just 10 years ago if you asked about vinyl or analog synthesizers to the audio industry they would have say: they are DEAD!
      Today they are fast growing segment ,and this makes me happy 🙂
      No file no bit just the real thing.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=erpZRWYASws
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PyJga8LO3mM
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-v38aX2IOA
      http://msretailer.com/analog-synthesizer-renaissance/

    4. Carl

      in 2000, we were at pentium 3 era, the cpu and gpu are now at least 10x faster. We can almost sya that FAANG stock did not exist.

      In 2000 we had huge screen ( non flat), shitty phone ( no smartphone), we were still at the nintedo 64 gaming era(Now it’s esport gaming), we were buying cotton clothes( now its mineros wool, goretez and more new material), all car were using a lot of fuel( now we have hybrid electric and many more intelligent features in car), we were still at DVD era( now its usb, cloud, Terabytes hard drives), the home computers were complete shit(i was lagging while going on internet explorer with a 3k+$ computer), city and road magamenet as well as construction technique and material improved… A lot as changed since 2000 and these change seems to be even greater worldwide.

      Almost everything is changing fast. Don’t forget about the food industry, sleep industry ( memory foam everywhere, very expensive bed). Drones, High speed train, medical advance…

      Social factor and management has improved. More women are working and consume more.

      With all these changes, the market should be much higher.

      1. vin

        Carl, excellent points. But, as an investor what is important to me? Is the company worth the price it is selling at? And, second will the company I buy will grow?

        Unfortunately, to-day by any established standard companies are expensive. So, why do I buy? Only because I believe others will buy it at a higher price and I will be able to sell it to them and make CG. Why? Because those who have it are floating in liquidity and will buy a rising asset.

        Btw that is speculation. It is not investing. To-day, investing doesn’t exist because companies DO not reward share holders.

  13. Goild

    Attachment

    I have no idea. But will prepare a good short.
    Will get more UVXY shares.
    There is a lot of money to be made on that very first crack.
    It should be around the corner.

  14. victor

    technology – technology … I love AbCann Global technology the best in industry producing the best cannabis (( :
    Follow with a money guys and they are in new cannabis industry now, when time come to switch – I will switch…

    1. Carl

      Canabis stock for canadian are in a bubble, just like american canabis stock were in a bubble in the past. The problem with this kind of bubble is that it’s extremely hard to know when the bubble will pop. Most of these stocks are 5-10x higher than they were a few months ago. I would not try to buy at these levels.

  15. carlvan

    Wow, just saw the $ 500 millions hacking of Coindesk in Japan, that’s a lot!! So not only bitcoins are based on thin air and backed by nothing but “proof of work”, which really is squatting CPU power and energy, but now it appears that the secrecy and safety has been broken the most obcene manner…one has to wonder what is the remaining advantage of owning bitoinc and similar sh..t

  16. 1970confused

    Dzoniiii….lol must be a trick question??? WEEKLY RSI at nose bleed levels SPY @ 92 and DIA @ 94 just plain crazy

    1. Gary Post author

      I warned people that you can’t trade a bubble based on momentum indicators. The Weekly RSI was at 92 back in March when the Q’s were at 132. Now they are 170.

  17. Lenapowich

    Lots of good commentary this morning. All I can add is that it never pays to get too comfortable with the gold miners. I know from first hand experience!

  18. Gary Post author

    Gold is 31 days into its daily cycle. It’s due for a short term correction any time now.

    We got off leverage when the dollar tagged that support zone at 88.40.

  19. Goild

    Attachment

    Rebought 334 UVXY shares at $10.67.

    Current holding are:
    1K JUNG shares
    3K GDX shares. 2K bought at 23.1, 1K bought today at $24.1. To be held for a long time. I hope so.
    Good trading to all.

  20. Spanky

    Stocks have reached a permanently high plateau eh?
    This time is different?

    All I see in the LT charts you have pulled up is a gargantuan hyperbolic market that has gone vertical.
    The vertical phase ends when Bretton Woods II is abandoned. That means we are likely headed a hell of a lot higher than current levels, in nominal terms. There is literally no reason not to be in the US markets. The Fed has your back, and the USD is the world’s reserve currency. It’s the greatest moral hazard ever created in the history of the world, IMO. You literally cannot lose going long Amazon and Google, for example. In fact, if there is ever a crash, they will come out even stronger. It’s the new fascist business model.

  21. jacob2

    Maybe after so many participating in the bitcoin bubble people are gun shy about jumping on board to the SM bubble now in progress. Recency memory. Think we have years to run in this secular bull which started in 09 but overdue for a correction. Gut check Spring? Time to hibernate, raised cash.

  22. Nada

    Testing the 10ma on XAUUSD now. If we get a close below, the hunt for DCL should be on. Everyone has had plenty of opportunity to exit their gold longs, so no crying when the DCL scares the hell out of everyone. A move from 1238 to 1365 and if you did not take profit, shame on you.

    1. carlvan

      Agree! Most of us should be safe here – I am on the sidelines to buy miners lower; did exit my JNUG a bit early at 18.65 but with very decent profits. It also looks to me that stock market might have started a correction at last…

  23. Goild

    Loss of $11,500 at JNUG about $16.66 with 27.5K shares on the table.
    Will put my head inside the ANT hole.

    1. jacob2

      FWIW. Own plenty of gold stocks but hedged it last week with some DUST. Think we are due for a short term ( month or so) counter trend rally in the dollar as sentiment thru the floor. Same thing for oil bought ERY. Good luck

  24. Nada

    Attachment

    Goild – not sure why you are holding leverage this late in the daily cycle? (33 trading days or 49 calendar days since ICL). We have been in the timing band for the DCL for a bit. The last IC’s 2 stretched daily cycles were way outside the normal bands. With that said, even this DC is a bit stretched compared to the 2 IC’s back.

    I doubt the high for the IC has topped, but this chart is something to keep in mind.

    **This is not my chart, but an idea that was presented on tradingview by a fellow contributer. Unfortunately, I do not remember who posted and what their track record is on gold. I just thought it was interesting (albeit unlikely).

  25. Goild

    Carvan,
    No, I still have the 27.5 shares.

    Nada, thank you for the insight and for the care.

    We will see what I do.
    I will let you know.

    Thanks, Thanks!

    1. Nada

      If anyone can get out of the position, I have faith in you Goild. You are a very skilled day trader. Good luck.

    2. carlvan

      Goild, I would hate to be of any influence here but, FWIW, the daily RSI5 for JNUG has almost touched 30 today; personnally, when I sold my JNUG I wrote here that I intended to buy back around 16 and we are almost there. Of course, now, I will have to have the courage to re-enter ! Easy to say, not so to pull the trigger but I continue to think that Gary’s analysis that the ICH has not been reached yet, for this cycle, is true…I cross the fingers for you.

  26. Spanky

    You have to give Gary credit, although I hope it doesn’t go to his head. He has called the metals more or less perfectly for at least 8 months.

  27. Gary Post author

    Keep this in mind before you start buying. Cycles are driven by gold, not miners. DCL’s should not only drop below the 10 DMA, but they should stay below it long enough to turn the 10 DMA back down. This applies to gold.

    One of the biggest mistakes traders make is to be impatient during cycle declines. Wait for the right conditions to be met before buying.

    1. carlvan

      Got it, thanks Gary – true enough, gold is the master, not a leveraged miners ETF when it comes to timing

  28. Spanky

    Silver COTS (commercial short levels) are pretty still pretty bullish looking. While gold’s are pretty extended (although not matching any recent highs yet), silver’s really haven’t gone anywhere since the ICL. If you are bullish the metals, silver should have a ton of headroom to rally out of the next DCL. We’ll see.

    http://snalaska.com/cot/current/charts/SI.png

    1. Spanky

      your own chart clearly shows that not every DCL drops below the lower BB. Not saying it won’t happen this time, but your own chart doesn’t support what you say.

          1. jake

            Spanky. That’s the only one you need a microscope on, look at the cycle highs as well. If they poked you in the eye you’d still be in denial.

            Effort vs. result: look at the volume on expiry day in relation to the gain.

          2. Spanky

            Whatever Jake. The fact is you are wrong in making a blanket statement that every DCL breaks below the BBs.

  29. Don

    Netflix is up 4% today and 48% this month . Nvidia is up 28%. Every millennial in the country has Netflix and a lot of then spend much of their useless lives playing games on Nvidia based hardware. . Maybe they are buying stocks in what they know and cherish. It’s crazy to see such a large increase in valuations for such a big companies in such a short time.

  30. carlvan

    Big mess going on in the bitcoin arena, with fraud everywhere, (in addition to the historical $ 500 millions hacking of Coindesk in Japan last Friday), according to a post in TradingView:

    ” So some people have been speculating that Tether or Bitfinex have been printing money out of thin air which pushed the price of bitcoin -3.76% from 600$ to 20k$.
    Bitfinex indeed is printing 100 million every couple of days, even during the fall of bitcoin -3.76% by almost 50%, which is unexplainable.
    Source : https://twitter.com/tetherprinter?lang=en
    Well Tether responded to these concerns by hiring a company to check their history and audit everything in May of 2017.
    Today news came out that Tether dissolved their relation or stopped working with the auditor for whatever reasons that are not published yet.
    This is a really bad sign. After this news came out people in Gdax started selling bitcoin -3.76% to stay in USD incase of crypto market crash

    People in Bitfinex and other USDT based exchanges bought Bitcoin -3.76% with their USDT in case USDT crashes (so the concern is that 1 USDT might not be equal to 1 USD)
    So they are trying to buy coins, then send these coins to exchanges that support USD which ofc -1.24% pushes the price up.

    So people in Gdax are selling – price of BTC -3.76% went down
    People in Bitfinex are using their USDT to buy – price of BTC -3.76% went up
    Thats why there is almost a difference of 500$ between Gdax (USD) and other USDT exchanges. ”

    Scary, no? We all know that sometimes regulated markets are manipulated, but there is almost no regulation in the bitcoin world, so I guess the sky (or the hell) is the limit there…

  31. espresso

    Part of why a bubble can still collapse is that more and more people start to think it perhaps *cannot* collapse because of CB tricks. The only thing that will do is kick the can further down the road and allow even greater extremes from an historical perspective, as we are already seeing. Ultimately it means that when a bubble cannot be contained, it will be all the more devastating. My opinion is that they have figured out how to kick the can very well, but there will still be circumstances where the loss of confidence e.g. in a local currency will be so great that the collapse will not be stoppable. A country still *must* keep someone in alignment, because there is no substitute for a productive economy. Magic CB actions just ain’t gonna cut it.

  32. espresso

    Gary, any opinion on the S&P re: a T-advance (if that’s the right term)? First leg, 666 to about 2150, then consolidation, now another big move. First move about delta 1500, implying a 2nd move to about 3600-3700. That pattern has a funny way of playing out often enough.

  33. Goild

    Attachment

    Somehow the miners are being punished.
    JNUG more than NUGT.
    There is a divergence between gold and the miners.
    Still holding the 27.5 JNUG shares but will get rid of half by the close.

    1. Nada

      Juniors do feel more pain than seniors when headed South. Juniors also feel more exuberance than seniors when the price is moving North for the index.

  34. Goild

    Autobahn,

    I was not playing the cycles. But day trading.
    Was caught off-guard and a bad habit set into of plunging into the falling knife.
    Well, will see how it resolves.

  35. JJHarmen

    Goild, I don’t understand your strategy. You have been so sure that UVXY was going to pop big and then you sell right away for peanuts. Why?

  36. JJHarmen

    My LABD isn’t doing so well. These these triple leveraged funds are murder on one’s account if you don’t get it right. I will hold out one more day.

  37. jacob2

    The lowly and unloved USD rallied today and most markets reversed. Heard the sentiment on the dollar was 8 going into today on a scale of 1 -100. Think it continues for a while.

  38. Goild

    JJ,

    The reality is that I do not let profits run. It is an area I need to work on.
    Same on plunging with too many shares.
    I do visualize not getting in, or being very careful. It has being working as yesterday
    I was reflecting that it had been a while since I was bitten.
    Today really caught me off-guard.
    Another lesson.
    Good trading to you!

  39. vin

    A bad day indeed. Gold miners got creamed. I am stuck with some jnug! Even SM was down. The only green was LABU. And, LABU has been a real rocket.

    1. vin

      What a joke? 30m? 15m? Is it any wonder that they don’t care?

      They can recover that kind of pocket change in days.

  40. trendyfollower

    Good points from Gary. This could even work within a 7 year cycle, topping soon but not falling too much into 2022ish. We’ll see.

  41. Goild

    Bob,

    Thank you for the question.
    What is the lesson?
    I have been in this several times and have thought about it.
    I have tried to device ways to prevent me from plunging.
    But plunging is also a way to make money.
    Perhaps it boils down to reluctance to execute stop loss.
    In part it was overconfidence as just before the falling knife I had made already $500.00 plus $400 on UVXY.

    The lesson is to re enforce caution and execute stop loss.

    I had noted the increased volatility, forgot about it.

    Well, we shall see how I end up.
    Gold/miners might be at the bottom of channels.
    JNUG at $16.4 is cheap.
    Who knows?

    1. Gary Post author

      The question is will anyone use the dip to buy or add.

      10,000 will be a piece of cake. 20,000 isn’t out of the question.

      1. Spanky

        Every dip should be bought. Not necessarily all in at once, but a small % every time the SM goes red.

    1. Jim Dandy

      I agree, anybody that tried to pick the bottom on the backside of the parabola has to be disappointed, as the bounce was terribly weak. I can only imagine they will sell if they are smart, and want to have funds to try again at lower prices. One thing for sure, the bitclowns won´t sell, but somebody is!

  42. Gary Post author

    They should sell and move to the stock market bubble. That’s the safest strategy. Although almost no one will because they believe they are going to be smart enough to sell at the exact top. And as they missed the December top they have to rationalize there will be a higher top. If there isn’t then they will just end up losing everything like always during a bubble.

    The bubble convinces people to buy into the fundamental story causing them to also believe this time is different and there really is no top to this bubble. There always is though and especially this time as there really is no fundamental backing behind bitcoin. It really is nothing more than magic beans and 10 years from now everyone will wonder how people could have been so stupid to fall for what will be recognized as the greatest Ponzi scheme the world has ever known. At least there were actual Tulip bulbs.

    1. Jim Dandy

      I haven´t yet looked into the Bitfinex accusations, and I take a silver bug´s opinion with a grain of salt, but the scam calls are growing louder by the day. Chitcoin might be held much higher than it´s real value, with tethers being created at a rate faster than even USDs.

      Fresh video this morning https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9N8Malnob8&t=0s

      It´s like a new scam gets exposed every day, yesterday it was a $570 million hack and stolen coins, today it´s Tether. When is the last time the world saw $570 million of gold stolen, and yet bitclowns think total gold holdings are deceptively reported, so were driven to chitcoin. LOL!!

    2. Autobahn

      Gary ,
      Tulips were in Holland. Did people from other countries participate?
      Bitcoin craze is worldwide. Pain should be much grater ?!?
      I can’t convince my friend to buy a share of AAPL yet he is so eager to plow thousands into cryptos.
      Then I see market capa of most coins and number is in billions. More then some SnP 500 companies. Unbelievable !
      But I have to say I have a feeling it’s not over just yet.
      Move happened so fast that most folks hardly had any time to open accounts. People like Tom Lee former head of JPM equity investment strategies smart guy if he held position like that thinks it’s far from over . He actually telling people to look at alt-coins ( different names) that will suck in even more people. Wierd

  43. Goild

    Attachment

    Good morning,

    Fresh and lucky this morning….

    Wise and good trading to all.

    We shall see how deep the SM crack will go.
    We shall see ho much it pushes up GOLD.

  44. Gary Post author

    I just looked at the dollar. We may yet get one more push in the euro to test the trend line.

    I’ve noted before that stocks often complete an ICL at the same time as either the euro or dollar.

    So we could get a final push to 127 in the euro, a final bloodbath in the dollar, gold tests the baby bull high, and stocks drop down into a very quick and mild ICL as the dollar bottoms.

    This would give the Fed cover not to raise rates tomorrow.

    I’ll go over this scenario in tonight’s report after we see how the markets close today.

    1. Spanky

      $hui:$gold looks terrible. I really don’t want to draw comparisons with 2016, but it is true that out of that bottom in 2016, miners horribly underperformed gold on the first daily cycle (they actually made a lower low on Jan. 19 while gold had been rallying for a few weeks). I suppose nothing will come easy at this stage of the PM bull. Everything will be made as scary as possible.

      1. Jim Dandy

        Spank,

        If I recall correctly, you did the majority of your miner buying at low prices, before the 2016 runup, right? If so, you should still be up a nice amount even if giving some back the last year and a half.

        Also, have you considered just moving to metal outright, or a metal etf, even a leveraged one if you want bang for your buck like the miners offer? It might be less risky, and as you point out, gold has done better than the HUI?

        1. Spanky

          Hi Jim. yes, I have capital gains on my miners, although it’s a fraction of what I had in August 2016.

          I own plenty of bullion already, so I am good there. I am willing to wait it out with the miners, but I do recognize when looking at the monthly charts especially that it is going to be a long hard slog.

  45. JJHarmen

    The BTFD crowd doesn’t seem too eager just yet although the semis came off their lows in a big hurry. I predict we will have a down day but not much lower than this morning’s lows. My ass has been saved on LABD so I am feeling better about that trade.

  46. jacob2

    Yes, sold lots of stock and bought hedges last week: DUST,ERY,TAZA, QID. Risk management, selling off the chart sentiment numbers, and being fearful when others are greedy still works.

Comments are closed.