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I remember a year ago or so you used to use the RSI(5) instead of RSI(3) which one is better for which situation?
I like the 5 for full daily cycle lows as those are usually deeper. For a minor HCL the 3 day RSI is usually good enough.
Great, thanks for the guidance!
The same chart was posted a couple of days ago with 5 day RSI, which is not yet over sold as of EOD Thursday…
I think the 3 day is probably better for HCL’s. Sometimes the 5 day won’t reach oversold during a minor HCL. That appears to be the case this time.
Of course sometimes even the 3 day won’t reach oversold either. There is no perfect strategy. This is why I warned traders not to try and get too cute with a first daily cycle. Just hang on and accept that there will be down days along the way. If one thinks they will be able to trade around them perfectly they are fooling themselves. More often than not one just ends up underperforming.
Again people are worried about one more down day until maybe a 5 day RSI gets oversold, trying to perfect the entry, and losing focus on the bigger risk/reward picture.
Pain avoidance is a strong motivator, bu causes even more pain in the future via missed opportunities.
RSI or no RSI, Gold needs to close above 1330 with gusto (Tuesday’ s high approx) to confirm the HCL.
I concur. Volume has not been confirming the price action we are seeing in the miners and in real time this is a red flag. And that’s all that it is at this point a red flag that things aren’t as they should be so be wary. Is it just me or should we have seen bigger moves in the miner ETF’s than what we have seen?
I’ll say it again: There is no historical evidence that volume has to be heavy for a rally to succeed. It’s certainly not a bad sign, but it’s not required. If one had waited for heavy volume they would have missed the entire rally out of the election.
In fact most rallies start and go up on light volume. If one excludes any rally that doesn’t meet one’s “volume standard” you are going to miss many of the largest rallies in history.
Some rallies are born in apathy. Long sideways consolidations for instance just wear traders out to the point no one is willing to participate anymore. But these kind of consolidations can produce the largest rallies even though they often begin on very low volume. It takes some upward movement before anyone is willing to believe and for the volume to come into the rally.
Some times bottoms are a crescendo event with massive volume. Sometimes they just wear everyone out till there just aren’t any sellers left and a small number of buyers can make the market go up.
Also there’s heavy volume on buying climaxes.
Effort vs result is the thing to watch with volume.
I didn’t say heavy and I will say it again Gary you are wrong about the volume issue. Fifty years of computer generated research prove you wrong – so yes there is historical evidence – once again you speak of what you do not know of. No stock market rally has ever started without a rally/confirmation and this has to do with a certain percentage move and the volume being higher than the day before – NOT HEAVY – higher than the day before. IBD has NEVER missed calling a bottom to a bull run/rally nor have they EVER missed calling a stock market top – I’ve been a subscriber since 1991. And those rallies that start out with low volume tend to not have legs and soon peter out. Institutions account for 75-80% of the market activity and without their participation the market or any given stock is not going far. Like I said we have butted heads on this volume issue for years and I would think you would do a little investigating. You are always touting Sentiment Trader and I am always touting IBD. And IBD uses sentiment as well they just focus on the Put/Call volume ratio.
There is an easy fix for this argument. Get in the challenge and prove it.
While you’ve been sitting on your hands waiting for some kind of volume confirmation we’ve added roughly another $100,000 to the metal portfolio.
A trader by the name of Hubert Senters has poo poo’d the volume myth. He asks, have you looked at the record? Apparently he has and he claims that the record shows that low volume usually results in continuation of whatever trend is in place. So you can have a long uptrend on low volume continue for a long time.
‘course if you get a volume spike on a reversal candle, well that might be the end of the trend. But this stock rally has had a few of those and after a shallow pullback, the uptrend continues.
Blue — Whatever you do.. don’t let Volume dictate your every move or else you’re gonna miss out! Volume is only one very small piece of the puzzle 🙂
I understand Christian but I’m telling you guys volume is a key ingredient obviously not the only one. I stopped referring to it as “heavy” because Gary is right about that aspect. I has to do more with above or below average and IBD tracks average volume or shows a line on their charts so one can gauge what is average or above or below. When you start recognizing and following this aspect you can see “smart money” tracks on weekly charts as they either accumulate or sell off positions which can take weeks and months as they build positions. When I look at GDX/GDXJ I dont see above average volume yet – it may kick in. When Gary called the bottom the volume that week (GDX) was 220 million shares vs the weekly average of 168 million so at that point all is well and no doubt some of that was short covering. The last 3 weeks have come well below average and yes there were some short holiday weeks in there but I dont see that below average in other sectors that are doing well so you cant blame it all on the holidays. It appears there is still a lot of reluctance on investors part. And I am in positions but watching closely because I have seen this time and time again – if you dont have the volume the rally will just not have any legs to go far. If the volume should kick in then that would be confirmation the move is for real.
Maybe you haven’t been paying attention, the rally has already gone far. It’s going to recover all of the intermediate decline in the first daily cycle.
All I really want to see in regards to volume is at least one heavy day at the beginning of the rally in either NUGT or JNUG.
Wanna be bulls that haven´t been able to pull the trigger means there is still buying to come in later=higher prices. Imagine what will happen as gold finally ¨proves¨itself!
Big volume is just as often a sign of a move ending, capitulation, as it is big money starting to get involved. Some people are just more comfortable waiting on the sidelines, so that is what they do, and search for reasons why it is the right thing to do. The fact is, Gary has nailed it this time and the others might do better to listen to the guy that is on top of it, and up big already.
Above average or even heavy volume down days are referred to as “distribution” days and it doesn’t take a whole lot of them over the course of a few weeks to kill a rally – it is smart money selling their positions. This is the criteria that IBD uses to call tops and as I have said they have never missed a top. Now, Gary has nailed it this time and his cycles/sentiment is working good, but I have noticed that they mostly only do good when you are in certain conditions. They worked good when silver went on it’s run to nearly $50 and they worked good when gold ran up to $1911 or whatever the top was in Sept. ’11. And back then he used to refer to A-B-C-D waves all the time which maybe is EW -not sure but he no longer references those. Cycles dont seem to do so well after that. Cycles didn’t help him with the stock market because back then he was calling for the markets to sell off big time and they just kept going up and going up and are still going up. The cycles didn’t help him with silver and gold because he thought they were going up and up and up and put a lot of money in USLV Leaps for Jan. ’13 and ’14 and the metals kept going down and down and down – and those were deep in the money Leaps – when silver was in the low 40’s. I was a subscriber then. I didn’t buy into that because silver had gone thru a climax blowoff type move and those type moves are a signal the run is over and over for quite some time as we have seen. I did buy some 2015 USLV Leaps (23/24 strike price) when silver was around 19/20 but they expired worthless as well. How many times did Gary call a bottom in the metals and they kept selling off? – he finally got it right in Dec. of ’15.
Let’s get your facts straight. We only put 6% in LEAP’s. No one destroyed their portfolio with a 6% position.
And I was picking intermediate bottoms. I knew at some point one of them would turn out to be THE bottom and the baby bull is where the really big money is made quick.
So while everyone else was obsessed with not making a wrong call I was setting us up at every intermediate bottom to catch the baby bull whenever it came. And no matter what people say after the fact none of them actually caught the baby bull until many many percentage points had already gone by. Not Avi, not Alex, not Jordan, etc. None of them made an actual real time call at the bottom.
You are still talking about Volume for the miners being your reason for sitting on the sidelines.
I got in JNUG exactly 1 month ago, on 12/12, and am up 43%. Which means GDXJ is up around 14%-15%. I remember you talking about low volume at exactly the same time…
Serious Question: What type of confirmation are you looking for anyways???
Looks like that’s happening now !
You may get your wish this morning
The dollar has made a lower low this evening confirming the bounce was just that, a bounce. We can now construct the cycle trend line from the pivot. It should now head down to test or marginally break the September low over the next 5-10 trading days before this daily cycle bottoms.
The megaphone pattern should break during the next daily cycle.
I suspect gold is going to test 1377 before this daily cycle tops.
Earnings season is going to start in earnest next week. It should be very good. However I think we may get a sell the news response and if the intermediate cycle is ever going to top it should do it by the end of next week. It really just depends on if the semi’s can finish the move to test the all-time highs at 1362 by the end of next week.
If there isn’t a good pull back and consolidation soon that could be a sign of a bubble forming?
One bubble after another. That is my expectation. The first was bitcoin. It looks like that bubble is popping. So the liquidity will flow somewhere else. The stock market. That will be the second. When stocks pop then it should be commodities turn with liquidity focusing most heavily in the precious metals as this time it will be a currency crisis driving the move.
During the first stage of the commodity bull it was energy and base metals driven by demand from emerging markets and a global real estate bubble.
This time it will be a collapse in fiat purchasing power as all the years of QE finally come back to bite us in the ass.
Won’t the stock market after the initial interest rate shock benefit along with commodities in the coming bond bear market?
Bubbles aren’t about fundamentals, they are about emotions. When price goes parabolic it doesn’t matter what the fundamentals are, nothing will ultimately stop gravity from collapsing the bubble.
Gold. Find it encouraging that most gold bug promoters and there sites Casey, Holmes, korelin have largely moved on to weed and crypto’s. Looking forward to metals out preforming everything else.
The herd always gets sucked in at tops. Look at the comments here on the blog. Many traders freaking out because they missed most of the rally in energy stocks. Where were these people 6 months ago when the rally was starting?
They were afraid to pull the trigger because the move down had been so severe.
Instead of trying to find the next big move and get on board early they end up chasing at the top.
Folks the next big mover is going to be precious metals. You can get on board early now, or you can wait 3 or 4 months and chase into the top.
Human nature never changes.
I’m Always early. Sat through late spring and summer with non preforming oil and energy stocks while all the things FANG’s went parabolic. Most bought back then now doubles. Since December market leadership has been shifting to the inflationary sectors. Rising rates and inflation should be good for everything in the commodity and capitol goods sectors. . The PM’s and metals will have there day. Inflation fears just around the bend. Don’t think I will be regret buying all those old turkey miners, better early then awol.
“I’m Always early. Sat through late spring and summer with non preforming oil and energy stocks while all the things FANG’s went parabolic. ”
I was there with you in June, with two good size positions. Made great profits even though I sold early when oil touched 60. Missed the 60-62 part of Gary’s- Alex call over the last few weeks.
Major oil etfs are close to resistance. It is too late to chase now. One could have done better by selling jnug around 19 and moving into gush or erx for 7days or so and catch the vertical phase while jnug is stuck sideways and move back into jnug.
You were afraid to pull the trigger as well Gary – you threw in the towel on oil/energy.
I was focused on metals. There was a hell of a lot more money to be made in metals than in energy.
And BTW I was one of the very few who called the 3 year cycle low in the CRB.
ERX has gone from 21 to 41 and GDX has gone from 21 to 23 – I dont follow you???
l will compare apples to apples – JNUG 12 to 17
Let’s compare the assets from the bottom of their multi-year cycle low to their baby bull high shall we. Instead of comparing oil that has been an intermediate trend to metal which has been in an intermediate downtrend. I mean how much more rigged can you make the comparison.
ERX went from $12-$45 a gain of 275%.
JNUG went from $8 to $231 for a gain of 2700%.
Now do you see why I wanted to focus on metals?
Gary exited oils a bit early. But he went into jnug which performed just as well. It is tough to rotate between 2 asset classes which are powering up simultaneously. Besides, Gary’ s philosophy is not to get too cute with the 1st daily cycle. It is best that everyone follow the method that works best for him. As per his numbers, he and and his subs are doing very well.
To do better than that, he needs to play individual stocks and follow sector rotation. I suspect it is tough for him to find this time, as he is busy with his videos and site maintenance. Anyway, subscription fees flow to him from his subs. So, there is no need for him to go beyond what he has been doing now. His record with metals is very impressive because of his singular focus on this sector.
Great observation, now that you mention it, I have to agree.
I meant to jacob2, and his point that all the goldbug sites are talking crytpo, marijuana stocks, giving miners second thought.
“One bubble after another. That is my expectation…”
This is a qualitative assessment, a narrative.
I strive to make my analysis as quantitative as possible, and it all boils down to volatility. Naturally, your narrative may be correct, but we may all be worm food by that time. Don’t take that assessment personally. After all, even Nobel-winning Scholes and Merton of the famous Black-Scholes Model for pricing derivatives were hung up on volatility, too. It was the one variable in their formula that they could not pin down with any degree of precision. If I recall correctly, they also ignored market fractal degrees and their cyclical nature. Volatility is just as cyclical as is price/level, in its oscillations over time.
I debated whether to share my thoughts on volatility.
If you’re not interested, just hit that Page Down button on your keyboard and 🙂
The currencies, including gold, are in a period of decreasing volatility at the larger time frames. Gold, in particular, is in reduced volatility on the “8 year” cycle, which is the longest-term cycle that I have data for in gold. The “3 year” cycle is contracting volatility, and generally, the smaller fractals or cycle degrees all follow suit. That’s what happens during a correction, until volatility starts expanding again. So there may be bursts of volatility, but they will be constrained by the tightening volatility at higher degrees.
The NASDAQ, by contrast, is expanding volatility at the longer term degrees, greater than yearly. Even the cycle whose timing band is 20-40 years (the intermediary cycle just above the “7 year” or “8 year” or however others refer to it) is expanding volatility leading me to believe it is in its wave 3, where I think it could be approaching a very large degree wave 3 top, just based on volatility. Despite the fact that on the shorter time frames, low volatility rules the day, the month, and the year, longer term volatility just keeps on expanding, characteristic of a strongly trending market. Sure, there will be an eventual correction, perhaps even longer than a decade (remember the 1966-1981 stock market bear?). But that, too, shall pass.
That’s the reason I believe gold is still in a bear market, longer term (“8 year” cycle). Even the current “3 year” cycle rally is corrective in nature. Both of these cycles are contracting volatility. Sure, the “8 year” pattern looks incomplete, but for me, the confirmation is not in crossing some “trendline” or “horizontal line”, or how many waves I can or can’t count, but rather, what is volatility doing?
Regardless of whether you agree with me on that outlook, you need to have some sort of handle on volatility. Not parroting what somebody else says about volatility, but a quantitative understanding of that beast. Again, don’t take any such comments personally — even 2017 “Nobel Winner Thaler Is Nervous, Puzzled by Low Volatility”.
As for the GDX “daily” cycle, volatility has begun to contract in earnest, as a result of the most recent consolidation since the late December rally.
Linear mindset to markets, whatever.
So I read through all of this and didn’t catch what your current Target for Gold, Silver, and miners was along with projected time frames.
So where do you think Gold is headed in the next 2-4 months?
My analysis I posted exactly 1 month ago had a few long term charts, coupled with my analysis. Then I purchased JNUG at 12.67 as my analysis was telling me to BUY. I have a projected time frame of around 3-4 months then I will sell.
Sounds easy right? Plan your trade and trade your plan.
Sorry, but I don’t really understand what exactly are you saying above?
1327 is thekey here – 19th the next stop on the cycle bandwagon – a sharp move in gold is anticipated – likely target 1361 – makeit look like a good dbl-top I hope – lots of bearish progs by then on any red day if this is what I think it is.
a nice low vol gdxj takeout of the 36 zone should get lots of shorts juiced on the first reversal – a boy can dream.
Poor Teddy Bear. Long bitchcoin , no gold. He mentioned until December to conclude bitchcoin. By then, 12 months away, all dead already. I have a better suggestion. Tell him to shut up and come back to talk in December. Lol
Teddy already lost more than half his money on his big GBTC call. So he is only losing half as fast now, with his latest chitcoin call, being he could only afford to by half as much.
Liftoff from this consolidation is probably a month away.
Gary is very smart. Not that he said it “looks like” bitcoin bubble is now popping.
He did not say it is.
I think we will see liftoff from this consolidation in a month or so.
How big is it gonna be?
Let’s just say that early this summer you’ll notice Gary using a capital B when he writes Bitcoin.
This fall ( & as early as late August) watch for Gary to go all caps !
This move is going to that impactful.
It’ll look like this:
Cloud coin much better in so many ways, and newer ideas coming out every day. Bitcoin sees $6K soon, we haven´t even begun to deal with the regulation issue that is coming and tokens have already turned down. Just prepare to buy more when it gets down there, Americano!
And I wouldn´t even buy Cloudcoin in this market at the moment, I already missed that boat, but just because I missed cryptos dosen´t mean they are going to continue to go up. The money has already been made in that area, IF one cashed out.
While I have now paid more attention to the blockchain, I can say that even if I get involved into the puke out, it will be via blockchain stocks like HIVE. I won´t be buying the Chuck E Cheese tokens with zero ownership of anything except the token, bc the world will run out of fools to buy it from me, sooner or later.
You are letting greed blind you to the point you can’t think logically.
All the crazy stupid stuff is happening now with cyrpto’s that happened with real estate in 2007 and with dot coms in 2000.
GARY, is it your experience that gaps get filled? Why? If gold goes up overnight in Asia, then why does it need to come down at some point during US trading hours? Thanks.
Gold is trading 23 hours a day, S-F. There is no gap from yesterday close to open. Example, gold closed at 5pm eastern and reopened at 6pm.
Miners like to fill gaps from a gap up opening, but rarely does gold have gaps.
Hello Gary & everybody. I have been following open blog for a half year and I would like to express following statement.
The matter how Gary describes gold sentimental is probably right with 95% traders, included me: I didn’t participate the last rise in Gold from 1240 level, because I was waiting low price to enter and then I was waiting for a pull back, which didn’t occured. So, I entered @ 1308 at first pullback and doubled position at second pullback 1309. I ignored my emotions and just followed Gary. Now I am green with 500 €.
So if gold would go at least up to 1350 then I will make 500 bucks for Gary’ subscription and 500€ for me. Wish the same for all people, who is still thinking about the purchase of the subscription. Let’s see how the gold roles to 1350. 🙂
Gartley update. On mobile, so had to zoom a bit.
Looks like I am finally going to get my gap fill 🙂
After 1349, correction?
Will have to observe price action – but I would think so. Dollar should bounce here;
EURUSD break out;
It appears to me that you are making the same mistake today as you have made in the past. The stock market is in an early vertical phase as you say. Yet now you have no long equity position and that is where you say one should have most of their capital invested. It’s January, not September. You and other “cycles” guys have said your indicators are mostly useless in a vertical phase. I agree btw. After watching you get shaken out early and left behind in the vertical phase of the last gold bull, why the heck are you trading the wiggles in the stock market right now? Again, your “indicators” are fairly useless in the vertical phase and pulling up a chart of the 3 major indices clearly shows an early parabola.
I’m referring to your personal funds, just to be clear.
I’m controlling greed. It’s too late in the intermediate cycle for me to hold long call option positions on stocks. We probably still have a bit more room yet as the semi’s haven’t reached 1362 yet, but I don’t think they will get through that level without a significant pullback, and we’ll get some kind of pullback allowing me a reentry.
I’ve already made a ton of money on this run. In fact I’ve made “enough” for now.
Bitcoin saved again;
I wonder where Ted is?
Managing his 5k shares of DUST, I suspect.
5k shares? He seems to be a man of means. It is probably more like 100k sahares?
January 10, 2018 at 8:52 pm
Check back in with me about BTC in Dec.
The miners have topped. All in with DUST.
Does anyone know what happened? Gold went down in a hurry?
Though it is still up from the yesterday close.
CPI data was the trigger. Dollar oversold and USDJPY trying to claim 200ma
Install investing.com app on your phone. There is an economic calendar to keep you tuned into data releases, worldwide. Filter out everythubg, except US Japan China EuroZone.
So why not add something constructive, as in ways to express all of that in fewer words — Who knows.. maybe you can be my editor 🙂
Either that or just hit that page down button, as suggested with a 🙂
Page Down is the ultimate cure for “verbose”
I use it all the time. Most of the comments on this blog are “verbose”. They contain fewer words than mine, but they are hollow words having very little meaning.
But hey, why not ignore all of those words and just “back up the truck” because you “feel like it”… maybe you’ll get lucky!
Or look for a cult to join,
A guru you can follow.
Mostly because I don´t read your posts, maybe the first and last line but that´s all. Try getting to the point.
2018: Year of the miners mini-plunge.
Pedestrian has spoken
Come on jj. Pedestrian has more class. This guy knows no bounds. Above all, he thinks that he is FULL of wisdom, to top it all.
Wonder where Golid is?
About to call it a day, lunch money has been made.
@ Blue Reason for miners lag is break of KEY MA which is still in convergence after previous high.
Let us make money today, today, today.
Do not be tempted to give a single cent back to the market.
The market has a lot of money, no need to give back any cent.
I have been busy with other business and have had little time to post.
Have a great day today!
Nice to hear from you.
Hope you are doing great which it seems like after your lively posts :}
Goild, I am glad I give you something to look forward to 🙂 . Congrats on your JNUG and GDX.
My morning routine is to have a coffee while watching the SM makes new highs and GDX struggle. Yep, everyday is the same old thing.
Mine too! haha.
Cannabis, Commodities, Coffee, & Cultures (Greek Yogurt)
Cannabis before or after the breakfast ?
JNUG is up almost 5%. I’m happy with that. But I feel your pain, gold is making new recent highs but the miners are not. Let’s see if they can play catch up. I have a feeling they will.
It’s all good, this is just how it goes sometimes. The metals don’t always move in sync with the miners. However, we can expect for Miners to play “catch up” real soon. Weekly charts are a screaming buy and I see a big swing to the upside for Miners and especially Silver.
Agreed Leilani. I am thinking of moving some funds to USLV. But sometimes silver doesn’t really move until gold’s 2nd or 3rd daily cycle. Or maybe silver futures???
I use to prefer spot for Gold and Silver but I’ve decided to go with Miners for the next bull run in metals. I would prefer to have the earnings compound the way they do with stocks vs adding new positions along the way trading Spot.
I played USLV from March 2016 – August 2016 but then was introduced to JNUG and really started looking at miners.
USLV is an excellent choice in my opinion, do what you feel would be best for you. 🙂
Still holding the 318 shares of JNUG purchased exactly 1 month ago on 12/12. Average price of $12.71 per share.
Thanks Nada. Did you get back into any long positions or are you flat at the moment?
FLAT. I have been fighting FOMO since the bounce off the 10ma 🙁 I thought about getting back in there, but I wanted to see how the duration of this daily cycle played out –
The previous IC was shortned, so I didn’t have the confidence in stretched cycles still being present.
I will have to wait for the DCL before another entry. In hindsight, I should of scaled out in smaller increments with my options, out of the ICL. A lesson to apply during the next ICL.
JNUG $50 in 2018 is very conservative. We’ll be at $25 before you know it, and as we all know a continued strong move can double one of these triple leveraged funds in 2 or 3 months.
I’m 100% JNUG in the contest and holding 2800 shares JNUG in real life, so I am swinging for the fences Dave Kingman style. Gonna go broke or hit it WAY out of the park! I was all about JDST in 2017 because it was clear to me Gold was not ready to stay above $1300. Gold is ready in 2018.
Whoa! I wish I had those kinds of funds, I would have done the same thing back on 12/12 regardless if I have $40,000 or $4,000.
I also look for HIGH Reward:Risk Ratio. 10×1 investment just a few times throughout your lifetime can make a major difference. I see right now as one of those times with the Precious Metals market.
I think it might be best if Ted, Sally and Ped never show up here again. 🙂
Amen to that!
I’m sure they’ll be back at the next DCL. At least we’ll know when to buy back!
We see eye to eye on this subject LeilaniFarms! I am betting the farm on this trade! 🙂
Haha, no pun intended right.
This is exactly the opposite of what happened at the beginning of 2016 ,the so called “baby bull”.
Back then miners immensely outperformed gold,nowadays miners SUCKS gold is moving .
The fact that miners SUCKS makes me skeptical about this move.
I’d prefer gold to barely move and miners go to the moon!!!
JNUG is up about 52% from Dec low, UGLD is up 24% for the same period. How does that suck for miners?
Compared to 2016 miners sucks big.
Don’t look just at the 3x indexes , many individual gold/silver stocks are WAY lower than 2 years ago.
DO NOT KID YOURSELF.
Similar frustration in February of 2017 drove me to Bitcoin !
Gary is on watch for this. If it continues for a while he will say what he did last year – something is NOT right with miner correlation & bail to something that actually makes money. Stock market was his go to & it worked quite well. I utilized it via TQQQ ( The Dream Machine).
Till the last of my days I will thank JNUG frustration for getting me in the Mayflower ( Bitcoin) last March. I didn’t tip toe.
2018 is the year of Bitcoin as I always have said BUT for those who stayed behind….Gary will get you through if the miner dog shows it won’t or can’t hunt anymore.
it is important to have contrarian views to promote discussion and to learn…
Small caps are starting to move.
How many times do I need to tell you people this? The metals are one of the more heavily manipulated sectors of the market. Under performance in miners could very possibly just be the banks holding them down so they can accumulate at lower prices.
This is not an easy sector to trade and one has to be cognizant of potential manipulation and chart painting at all times.
I get how they hold the metals themselves down – see the link I posted earlier (12,158 gold contracts dumped). How do they hold down stocks?? Keep in mind short interest is 1.4 days in GDX, 1.2 for GDXJ and 0.4 days for JNUG.
Added to my option position. 4 more shares of NUGT March strike 40 calls at 1.67$
Qqq calls from December are up 100-130% today. Gary is crushing market calls the last few months. #gogoldgo
A nice day indeed.
INDL at 111! This one is a real winner.
LABU close to 91
And, JNUG above 18.
Was watching oild when oil was peaking yesterday. I don’t know how I did it but successfully ignored it and didn’t trade for my slow moving jnug.
AMZN is now over $1300 and up over 11% in just nine trading days. NVDA is up 16%and NFLX up 14.6%. Definitely a bubble going on here folks.
I have been warning you this was coming. If we get a pull back in February buy it this time because this still has a long way to go.
Christian, post some of your good analysis. I enjoyed your posts and charts in the past.
Thanks for the blast from the past, Dave Kingman! Wow, you are really aging yourself with that one. 442 career home runs and zilch consideration for the hall of fame?
here is a little known Dave kingman fact. In ’77 or ’78 he hit a ball that hit the rim of the roof at Olympic Stadium in Montreal. the umps did not know what to call. they called it foul in the end, but they then had to paint a fair/foul line on the roof.
Whatever happened to Lena and that other lady who were complaining about rug pulls? they should be happy now!
She capitulated at the bottom 🙂 Nah, I think she chimed in last week or so and was happy she was in green.
new longs today folks: ADMS and QNST
These look like 20-30% moves in just a few days.
Bitcoin (bounce being sold)
Dixie – will she test Sept low, bounce or keep dropping?
xauusd – will gold daily cycle continue to be stretched? If so, then this DC has until around Feb 13th
Nada, nice charts!
Look for the “parabola” talk regarding Bitcoin to resume in Feb/March.
January’s are horrible. This is 4th year in a row.
George Harrison had a song about how his guitar gently weeped.
So too do I for all those NOT on the Mayflower. I don’t think I’ll ever get used to it, but that just shows how epic my morality is.
My cross to bear in this life?
I’ll say it again greed is blinding you to the signs of a bubble. If you got caught in the tech bubble and the real estate bubble then try doing something different this time and don’t make it 3 for 3.
Instead of chasing at the top get in at the beginning of the next bubble.
Cmon Gary….gimme some more rope!
My contention is that the bubble in Bitcoin…..
IS IN THE 3rd INNING.
This will crystal clear this summer. Starts this spring after consolidation.
Patience! Nov 28 Bitcoin broke 10K.
When it does go to 25K this June – I will give you credit because your work allowed me to see it!
I’d be giving you rope to hang yourself.
Does this look like a sophisticated investor to you? Or is this the kind of idiot that jumps in at the top.
point to ponder: Regardless of what you may or may not think about this individuals sophistication, at the time the video was posted, Dec. 2014, the price of bitcoin was about $320. if the unsophisticated viewer took this unsophisticated individuals unsophisticated advice, I think they would be quite happy now that the the $320 is worth 13K.
Gary, please refrain from naming calling and humiliation. We all know you are great and doing a great job. But to set a good example for all to follow and keep civility, please stop calling people Idiots, or whatever. Thank you.
this news will probably cause oil to drop soon
Here are some secondary indicators for the miner ETF’s: (and as I have pointed out in the past they are lagging indicators of say 2-3 weeks and we are 5 weeks into this advance)
Accumulation/Distribution rating – A is bullish E is bearish C is neutral
Up/Down Volume Ratio – 1.0 neutral anything below is bearish and above is bullish
Relative strength rating – compares how stock is doing against all other stocks with 99 being bullish and the best and 1 being bearish or the worst
GDX: A/D – D+ Up/Down – 0.9 RS rating – 36 29 fund managers have unloaded GDX in last 6 months
GDXJ A/D – B- Up/Down – 1.2 RS rating – 25 3 fund managers have bought in the last 6 months
NUGT A/D – D Up/Down – 0.9 RS rating – 14 4 fund managers have unloaded NUGT in last 6 months
JNUG A/D – B- Up/Down – 1.0 RS rating – 7 1 fund manager bought JNUG in last 6 months
For whatever reason there is just no interest from Smart Money for these ETF’s right now and thus the below average volume and consequently not as much movement as we have seen in the past when gold moved up as much as it has recently.
Bluebellkid. Where are you getting the info on what the fund managers are buying/selling?
Off my MarketSmith chart – Premium service of IBD.
If you want to know about one of your stocks just ask I will be glad to take a look.
First of all. jNUG isn’t small cap anymore and had to be recreated. No one wants it. Nugt is a much safer option.
Also, if be curious to see what you can find on cascadero copper Corp
I am still around. GDXJ is my only investment right now and although I am in the green, it has not been very exciting to watch. The rug pulls are always a worry but I will not sell. I wish I had put money into things like tech or oil ETFs even a few months ago
Hope we all make good money!
I was talking with Michelle (sassylady and yes, we do work in the same building. ) and she’s not happy with silver’s performance. She’s still down on that dead investment.
Supposedly the bottom was in for silver last summer in July. I bought USLV then at 10.59 and got tired of waiting on it to move and sold for a small profit. In Dec. it actually dipped back to near the July low before bottoming again.
I heard Gary say a couple of times that Silver will outperform in later stages of the PM cycle.
Love the Dave Kingman talk!
Just looked it up and he got automatically excluded for all future consideration for Hall of Fame because he got so few votes the first year he was eligible.
What a rip!
In contrast to the Miners are the Metal ore stocks – check out their moves.
AA: A- 1.4 and RS of 94
MSB: A 1.6 and RS of 97
FCX: B+ 1.7 and RS of 92
VALE: B 1.7 and RS of 92
TECK: A- 2.3 and RS of 90
Bluebellkid, not sure if you saw my question earlier in regards to your post about Volume, or lack thereof.
At what point would you become bullish on Mining stocks? What is your “trigger” for entry?
I’m in and just waiting for volume to kick in to confirm the move. If volume kicks in then I may look at some individual miners with good fundamentals and buy them – KL comes to mind.
I’ve got over a quarter of a million in GDX/GDXJ.
I see. High Roller status. 🙂
Sorry, just thought from all of your posts this past month you were staying out due to lack of volume?
Weird, I must have missed when you went long this past month. From your posts it seems you were waiting for some sort of confirmation. When did you get in?
No kidding. Now he is in? Before he was not going to get involved. I might have to do research 🙂
Originally I bought GDX/GDXJ in several accounts and bought them 12.20.16. I am managing my retirement money so in that account I bailed on 1.3.17 in that account and then bought back in that account the next day – Nada can confirm this as he pointed out that I suffered from FOMO and I agreed. I didn’t sell in the other accounts and still hold from 12.20.16.
Yes now I remember blue, apologies
In the past I have loaded up with JNUG and then hit with a big selloff and when you have as much as I tend to invest it translates into big losses. And I am not a highroller. I just saved my money my whole life and was fortunate enough to work in an industry where pensions and 401K’s were part of my benefits. And Gary helped me make some good money with AGQ when silver went on its run to nearly $50/ounce.
Great finish to what started out as kind of a boring week for the miners. Congrats to all of those who held strong to their long positions.
One of the things you want to see in a stock is a strong weekly close – in other words a close in the upper half of the weekly trading range and even better if it is near the highs of the week – now that is bullish action and hopefully volume is there to confirm the move is for real.
Thanks, but I’m not looking for any more type of confirmation of a bull market in metals and miners. I got long 1 month ago after coming to my own conclusions off of my own analysis and am bullish for short, medium, and long-term time frames.
In all seriousness, by the time you have confirmation, the rally will be over. My God, look at the chart. Volume obsession has made you miss a 100 point move so far.
Nevermind, I saw your post above now where you say you are in?
I agree that I will miss out on some of the move. IBD has drilled into me that it is important to buy at the proper “buy point” which will be above where y’all get in. And I break the rules all the time.
And if there is no volume Nada it wont be much of a rally.
I would argue that IBD needs to evolve with the markets. Buying breaks rarely works anymore in our modern markets. One needs to buy bottoms.
The tools you need to do that are cycles and sentiment.
More often than not buying a breakout just means you buy at a short term top.
I originally bought GDX on 12.20.16 and up a whopping 1.46/share Nada with gold up over a hundred as you stated. How did I miss out on this move. Hell, I bought PYPL and SQ last week and up over $3 on each of them. I also bought some SH which I am down a 1.50 but that one will come back.
SGH not SH
There is much to be learned from IBD’s 50 years of computer generated research – it wouldn’t hurt you Gary to give it a try. There is a 4 week trial subscription. If you could be as good at picking tops as you can be at times picking bottoms don’t you think that would be a plus??
I have tried IBD before.
The problem I have is that markets evolve. If one’s strategies don’t evolve with them then they start to fail.
So many cycle analysts are still using old timing bands that no longer work anymore. So many traders still in denial about central bank manipulation, etc. etc.
We have to adapt to modern market conditions. The quicker one can do that the better their chances of making money.
Not picking tops but spotting tops.
I picked the last two tops in metals perfectly????
Well, I have read all of their books, subscribed to their paper (now digital) since 1991 and watched numerous webinars and their strategy works. When this bubble eventually pops they will have warned everyone that the markets are headed for a correction – that in itself is worth a subscription. I was on the sidelines for the whole market selloff of ’08/’09. My biggest mistake was I was hesitant to buy with things so low. I did bet the farm on RAX as it was one of the stocks that held up pretty well during the selloff and IBD teaches to watch for stocks that do well in downturns as they can be leaders of the next bull. Sure enough it was a huge winner but I put so much into it that when it sold off a dollar I bailed – i missed the proper buy point by 1.5 which would have made the difference of me holding or selling. I originally bought at 8.5 or so cant remember exactly but do know that 4 years later it was over 80. And I will be the first to admit that I would have never held it that long. RAX eventually got bought out.
“I picked the last two tops in the metals perfectly”. Well, you didn’t pick the top of the miners back in August of 2016 and that JNUG trade will haunt you from now on.
I got greedy too late in an intermediate cycle. I was only looking for a short term trade to marginal new highs but gold fooled me and failed to produce the marginal breakout that usually occurs at tops. Then we got caught in a midnight raid that broke support before we could get out. We did the best we could and exited at the top of the next daily cycle.
At that point we were up 50% in the metal portfolio for the year. So many people panicking and cancelling their subscriptions. Now one year later the metal portfolio is up over 260%.
How foolish do those people look now? 🙂
Does that percentage include the drawdown from JNUG?
And I as I have already laid out – the red flags were there that something was amiss and you choose to ignore that and now you claim you got greedy and “caught in a raid”. That was not a raid but the result of the signs signaling a top.
Bought some STLD today.
you may have picked the wrong example for an unsophisticated investor. Mr. I Pad Chains, Mr. Made for TV Gecko…the dude is a hoot. He may not be articulate and sound sophisticated but the dude knows what he is doing.
Americano, you’ll love this guy!
JNUG up 8+ % on a quiet “no news” day (unless I’m really missing something) driving the metals. Love it, we are really melting up here!
Yep, holding JNUG strong!
Long & strong baby, 100%!
2018 will be big for Gold & Silver
Just to let you know that I sold jnug options for a small profit. Thanks.
You did advise me against taking such an aggressive position. You called it a sucker bet. Yet I feel that indirectly your advise on au/ag and miners encouraged me to take this position.
So, I would like o thank you for your insight.
I also sold some gdx options but not gdxj (yet).
Btw I still have my position in jnug. So, far it has done well.
Sold half of my metal miners today with nice profit and switched to cannabis stocks as I think with a dip they have now I will double profit in February. Metal is good for now but potential in cannabis is tremendous. Write down VFF.TO ticker and look at it in a couple month or just end of Feb. I’m in this tomato/cucumbers up to my neck now, no money left… ) :
Hey Gary, for some reason the comments are closed on the most recent blog.
Comments are closed.