165 thoughts on “LONG TERM TRENDS REVERSING – GOLD, OIL, DOLLAR, EURO, YEN”

  1. Pennystocks

    Just read an article from Frank holmes who predicts gold to rise between1460 and 1600 by this summer because of interest rates Rising .it’ should rise a proportional percentage as compared to the 2 previous December (2015,2016)rate hikes ,Interesting ……. if I get the chance by tomorrow ,i,ll post the link .

    1. Pennystocks

      Gary, Frank Holmes is basically in line with your estimations of where gold is going in the near-term / next few months .

  2. zkotpen

    Palobar,

    Would be great to connect to you by gmail…

    I, too, have been deeply into geometry and its cousin, trig, all my life.

    But I also add calculus and stats to the mix.

    I’ve paid close attention to your timing calls and, like you, I am also not selling anything.

  3. SLEP

    Frank Holmes predicted that gold would reach $1,500 by the end of last year, which of course didn’t happen. Most of his forecasts don’t work out, just like most gold bugs predictions. You’ve got to be careful when these gold bugs throw around these pie in the sky numbers.

    1. RTTPD

      “Frank Holmes predicted that gold would reach $1,500 by the end of last year, which of course didn’t happen. Most of his forecasts don’t work out, just like most gold bugs predictions. You’ve got to be careful when these gold bugs throw around these pie in the sky numbers.”

      He’s also predicting another huge housing boom for the middke class — which is complete BS

      He’s akin to a door by door vacuum salesman.

  4. zkotpen

    The current rally in gold actually appears to have begun on October 6, in the form of an expanded flat. The pattern looks so weird and unusual, that I’m even struggling to believe it myself.

    But the math is pointing to this setup as being the most likely, with a target area for gold in the 1345-55 range… perhaps within a couple of dollars of the September high, after the current consolidation completes.

    Strangely, GDX has been more straightforward since late February: Triangle begun in Dec, 2016, that will eventually break down to complete the move since mid-2016.

    Either way, 2017 was a bull trap for both gold and GDX, within a bear trap one degree larger. So whenever the move down commences — perhaps palobar’s January 17 or so — it will also be the completion of a larger bear trap — the one that began in mid-2016.

  5. SUBBA

    I am following Gary since 2010 and ride the Silver Trade very well and made very good money too !!!

    I bought JNUG and NUGT and AGQ on Dec 13th when Gary initiated call to to trade for all his subscribers and he is guiding all of us very clearly and very strategically last 3 weeks about metals . So far by listening to his market analysis I booked a profit of more than $100,000 in this bull run along with some other trades.

    I am very risk taker and trade only options. But his analysis working for me with out a dought

    Thanks
    Subba

  6. roadrunner

    @Palobar;
    i have followed your posts here (and some on inventing.com) and you have done extremely well in your dates. i appreciate that you share the information here. i am sure there are others as well. Thanks.

  7. Jim Dandy

    Very interesting video, especially the weekly silver chart, thanks for bringing it to my attention.

  8. ted

    No one is saying the miners have already topped (except me). They are throwing around cycles and charts that aren’t seeing what is so obvious. JNUG will see $10 soon!

    2. Gary Post author

      LOL the daily cycle is right translated. There is virtually no chance this is anything other than a short term pullback.

      It was pretty obvious when you told everyone to buy GBTC at $3400 that you have no idea what you are doing in the markets.

      The 5 day RSI reach 95. Gold just needs to work off those overbought levels.

    3. Nada

      We already know Ted is full of BS. Now he trying to walk back statements. I am sure the hiipsters short term memory may not be the best;

      “Also never said crypto’s are like Bay area real estate.”

      Nonsense Ted, you said exactly that:

      “ted
      November 26, 2017 at 9:42 am
      I hate to say it, but I will. I really will. Here it goes… Gary, this time it’s different.
      (This is like buying real estate in the Bay Area in the 1960’s knowing what will happen in 50 years.)”

  9. Gary Post author

    I think there’s a pretty good chance silver holds above the 200 day moving average this time.

    It’s currently at $16.97.

  12. vin

    ted, you must be a real smart one. Gold is down. How could you have predicted so accurately?

    It would have been great for you if btc wasn’t down so much today.

    I guess one cannot be right on all counts.. 50% is not bad. Is it? Unfortunately you say you own btc and not golds. Did you short golds? Maybe next time.

  14. Gary Post author

    So far everything is playing out exactly as I expected.

    I warned gold could consolidate this week or pullback some. I said traders would start to panic and late buyers would sell long positions for a loss.

    This is how traders lose money on the long side in an advancing market. They wait till their emotions give them the all-clear before buying. That’s about the time eveyone else gets the all clear signal and that’s when we temporarily run out of buyers. The market corrects causing the late buyers to immediately suffer a drawdown. Of course that’s what they thought they were avoiding by waiting for “confirmation”. Instead all they accomplished was to virtually guarantee they would suffer a drawdown.

    At some point soon the late buyers will panic and sell. That’s the point where price will bottom and the next leg up will begin. Then the process will repeat again. Traders will now require more confirmation before they buy again. And of course about the time they get that it will be time for the next pullback.

    Now you see how human emotions can cause one to lose money on the long side in an advancing market.

    At tops traders have to control greed. At bottoms traders have to control anxiety. 95% can’t do either one and that’s why most people fail to make money in the market.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      Amen! Amen to that, Gary! That attitude helps the 5% make money, good, honey money 🙂

  17. Jim Dandy

    We got to under $23 on GDX and I did some adding to my miners. We have the 200 MA on the daily at $22.72, and the 50 WEEK MA at $22.85

  18. Gary Post author

    We’re getting the pullback in the semi’s I was expecting as they retest the recent high. I think sometime next week we’ll see a breakout and test of the all-time highs around 1362 and that should trigger a larger correction, dragging the rest of the market down into an ICL.

    That’s my best guess.

    1. Nada

      Mind you, this is very speculative as gold is at its 10ma. It appears USDJPY and Dixie pulling back.

  21. JJHarmen

    Looks like we are going to get a SM down day but going short would probably be a bad idea. GDX is disappointing but we have been down this road so many times that it doesn’t bother me anymore. All the markets are rigged and that is the new reality. So, why do we play them?

  22. Gary Post author

    Steff,
    I require percentage of portfolio. And I’m not going to allow you to trade a 12X fund when everyone else is limited to 3X. I also must be able to verify trades. That means sticking to the US markets.

    I offered to record an entry into 3X inverse silver at the open for you. But I must have a percentage of portfolio.

    1. Steffmeister

      You posted a series of posts that I was not able to make money in the markets. Now when I am showing that is just BS you are censoring my posts. I do not care about the challenge, I am just trying to show you that I make money.

      Clearly my work is not appreciated here so Good Bye!

      1. Nada

        Nonsense Steff. The very first trade I sent Gary for the contest was an options trade. He informed me that I could not trade options because not everyone was setup to trade derivatives, so I had to limit it to a 3x ETF. He offered to convert to 3x (like he is doing you). Guess what Steff?

        I didn’t cry and run away like a little baby because I didn’t get my way. I followed the rules that were outlined and converted my trade to a 3x ETF.

        Also there is nothing to appreciate about your work. You give no real time calls and only post in hindsight.

        1. Nada

          BTW, that options trade was +8k in 2 days.. So even with having to take less than half of that profit when it was converted to 3x ETF, it was the only fair since others did not have the same type of access.

          1. Steffmeister

            Censoring a valid post and you jumps out to defend that as Gary2. You are a true moron Sir!

            Nada means nothing now I see why, should have left this blog a long time ago!

          2. Nada

            Don’t let the door hit you in the arse Steffie. Like I stated, you offer nothing but obscurity and hindsight trading. What I do know is that you tout EW.. Yet the last chart you posted, I had to point out that you had an invalid wave 2. This speaks volumes to your inexperience, even when we are talking about subjective trash like EW.

          3. Steffmeister

            Nada the Giant Nothing burger! The big arse here is you!

            I’ve learned absolutley nothing from your posts you are just a copy cat!

            Your butterly graphics is just childish stuff that doesn’t work, when will we see 1348 for Gold, like I said just pure crap!

          4. Nada

            I thought you were leaving Steffie? Yep, harmonics, patterns, gann and EW are about 30-40% accurate at best. The harmonics work out time to time. My gartley on gold prior to the failed cycle is an example of one that did not work.

            The currently gartley on gold seems fine as does the one on bitcoin. I certainly would not put any money on harmonics alone. They are mostly drawn out of boredom. But hey Steff, its more that you provide. Like I stated, all I have seen out of you is invalid waves, lol.

      1. Nada

        BTW, that options trade was +8k in 2 days.. So even with having to take less than half of that profit when it was converted to 3x ETF, it was the only fair since others did not have the same type of access.

          2. Steffmeister

            Just for today so please enjoy, were are your brave calls Nada I’ve seen nothing you are just walking along without independent thinking. Ted is a much brighter kid than you!!

            Making personal charts only girly men are doing that …

          3. Nada

            Lol, are you kidding me? I have been making real time calls, day after day. I provide updates to said calls every morning. EURUSD DXY XAUUSD BTCUSD, etc. Unlike anything you can or will ever do Steffie. The day can’t end soon enough, to finally be rid of you.

            BTW, hope you enjoyed Sweeden. The new folks from South seem to like your women 🙂

          4. Steffmeister

            Nada a loser changing subject

            You are welcome to Sweden I can shovel a few immigrants up your paté kitchen then turn you into a giant Swedish meatball hahaha

          5. RTTPD

            Steff —–

            Surely you do not trade this with real money? One little mistake and boy what a setback!

          6. Steffmeister

            Yes I do. I’ve done it many times. I am backed up with good info not posted here I keep it as an edge against other traders.

          7. Nada

            “I am backed up with good info not posted here I keep it as an edge against other traders.”

            LOL, a legend in his own mind. Yet, can’t even draw valid waves on his “chart”.

  23. Gary Post author

    If the reversal in miners holds into the close I’m going to say we probably printed our HCL today.

    1. ras

      You could be right, Gary. Good work. Gap ups in dust/jdst could be exhaustion gaps. Reversal candles need to hold until close.

  24. palobar

    @roadrunner,
    I appreciate your kind words. I will try to do better and make sure that any comments in the future are more helpful. Like I have mentioned in the past, everyone should follow Gary’s work and if not already, get a subscription. Unlike most newsletter providers, Gary is a real trader. If I post a date, look at where Gold is trading. If other technical and sentiment factors are present, then you have an extra layer that could increase largely the probability of your trade. Not every date will give a major high or low. However, most of the major highs/lows will be included in the set of dates. Good luck.

  27. ted

    The gap down in GDX confirms a trend change and continuation pattern.

    Tomorrow (Wed) will result in a big red candle for GDX that will touch the 200 DMA and probably the 50 DMA. I’ve seen this pattern many times, and it’s as bearish as you can get.

        1. Gary Post author

          That doesn’t make any sense. In April gold was in the declining phase of an intermediate cycle. In August and now gold is in the advancing phase of an intermediate cycle.

      2. ted

        Gary, you’ll be fine. As you mentioned, you won’t lose money on this trade. But as this trade progresses downward, you will have to capitulate and tell your subscribers to preserve capital. Then you’ll just acknowledge it appears we needed another truncated cycle since there were a couple over-extended cycles the past couple years.

        1. carlvan

          ted: as we speak (or as you write your prediction…) your big red candle is reversing and may end up being indeed a new bear trap, a session starting with a gap down, going lower then finishing where it opens aka bullish reversal hammer for example…so I’d suggest you wait until the end of the session before making your bold statements about how silly/stupid are those bulls here !

    2. Jim Dandy

      So you are making a prediction GDX will drop another 25 cents, that a way to go out on a limb Ted, not nearly as great as your GBTC to buy at 3400.

      1. ted

        More than that Jim. But yes, tomorrow’s trade is so easy. Amazingly easy. Tomorrow, Gold prints a nice red candle. It’s like free money. I know this pattern so well. On Thursday it will be a sideways move. I’ll update as we go. But the miners have topped.

  28. Jimsee

    palobar – inspired by your comments and the absolute precision of some of the topping counts (my weakness is being early on tops) I’ve started a new project for gold ‘geometry’ .

    Any help (without giving away the store, of course) would be appreciated.

    Here’s my current dilemma, for instance.

    My cycles show 1-11/1-12 as a low off the 1-4 high, BUT proposed geometry says 1-10 /tomorrow – this would be triggered from the Sep 8 high and the Dec 12 Lo.

    In the past just watching the cycles play out has been sufficient – but if these can be reconciled – the accuracy should improve dramatically.

    Not sure if u look at price targets – but 1327 stood out like a big red flag in the recent (last year) relationships off the dec low.

  31. ted

    Based on my work, $15 is a given for this week. Probably tomorrow.

    Tomorrow’s guaranteed trade … Gold prints a nice big red candle!

  32. 1970confused

    Gary, or anyone else for that matter, why do you guys continue to answer this CLOWN TED?

    1. ted

      I apologize if I’m offending you. I am just laying out a trade I feel confident about. I could be wrong, too.

      My sense is the Miners have topped. We shall see.

  33. Jimsee

    this is the trouble with t/a alone – it can be so alluring – then turn on you like an ex-wife from hell.

    The underlying dynamics for gold are changing – and holding some persistence – unlike most of the time since 2011.

    Look at the chart of the ust 5/30 yield curve, look at libor, look at currency dynamics, there are lots more, etc…

    1. Jim Dandy

      I also noticed the miners really didn´t get smashed like they used to in the past. Normally a down $10 gold day after a big run would see the miners down 6-10%, and GDX down 3 to 4%. Not lately, I know bc I had lots of bids in below the market to snag cheap shares that didn´t get filled like they would have the last 4 years.

  34. Jimsee

    IMO – u r about to see a ‘come to jesus’ trade in ags – as the ‘trend is down’ so short in a news vacuum mantra becomes ‘ holy shit’ – buy that thang on a news vacuum.

  36. Gary Post author

    Folks, look again at the video. Intermediate cycles just don’t top on week 3. There is no historical precedent for this no matter how many years you look back and no matter whether gold was in a bull or bear market.

    1. ziasDad

      So IF the unthinkable happens and gold drops to a lower lower than the December low, you would just relabel that new low as the true ICL, right? (A bit like an E Waver relabeling the waves, right?)

      I get what you’re saying, but shouldn’t you mention the caveat: that *** IF *** the December low turns out to be the true ICL, then there’s no way gold’s IC will top in only 3 weeks, so gold must move above the recent high in the next week or two.

      My point is that even with cycles there are no certainties, no guarantees, in these markets.

      1. Gary Post author

        A move below the December low could not be a lower ICL. December has been confirmed as the ICL.

        If gold moves below the December ICL then it would be a bad sign. It would mean the intermediate cycle has topped.

        The odds of this happening are very slim.

        1. ziasDad

          Thanks.

          So you’re saying that there’s no way gold is NOT in a new IC? If gold does break below the December low, why wouldn’t you just invalidate the December low as an ICL and call the new low the true ICL? Or, in other words, how do we know for sure that the December low was the ICL and that we are for sure in a new IC?

          1. Gary Post author

            Because gold has moved above the previous daily cycle top, and rallied long enough to signal a right translated daily cycle. There is no doubt that gold is in a new intermediate cycle.

          2. ziasDad

            thanks again, Gary. So the rule is that once an IC decline begins, a new daily cycle cannot exceed the daily cycle high of a previous daily cycle that’s within the current IC decline, right? Has that rule ever been broken?

            I believe you about an IC never topping in only three weeks. Just looking for possible ways that the market might throw us an unexpected curve ball (I’ve been in this game long enough to have had more that a few “sure things” go awry) which is why I considered “what if” the IC that we’re sure ended at the December low hasn’t actually ended yet.

          3. Gary Post author

            It really doesn’t matter. We have such a large cushion on our position there’s virtually no way we can lose money on the current trade.

  37. Goild

    What I see is that GOLD has not retraced enough for such a good run. There is a good probability that gold will drop more.

    What is more interesting is the weakness of the miners/jnug.

    Thus exert due caution.

    1. rborna

      OK fleebag banksters, lots of crying going on, means you have once again succeeded in shaking the weak hands, time to buy and let the miners go up, you bastards!

  41. Alexandru Popovici

    Ted, that gold will fall tomorrow, yes, that will happen.
    On the other hand, gold/miners should get ripe to re-buy on Friday/Monday (I re-bought today for the contest, which I re-entered at the end of Nov – Gary knows).
    Why?
    USDJPY topped in its new DC yesterday very early in its DC (just on day 3) and even if it manages to throw back at 113.4 tomorrow while CHFJPY surges out of DCL, that will be a temporary move.
    Thus, with UJ ready to fall, gold/miners simply cannot fall too much from here – 1280 maximum potential correction this week (but unlikely even that).

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      USDCHF most likely to get a top on Thursday at its 50dma at 0.988 dragging UJ up too with it (hence the continuation of correction for gold/miners/treasuries tomorrow and early Thursday) while CHFJPY bottoms, but the acceleration of UJ will be more limited than that of USDCHF to allow CHFJPY to bottom.
      But after that…after USDCHF hits its 50dma….DXY and UJ will top, rendering gold/miners ripe for buying on Thursday 🙂

    1. Nada

      My god, before you know it.. Mustang Sally will be showing up. That biddy has been hibernating for quite a stretch. I imagine she is quite hungry. I hope she can get a signal from under her bridge. She needs to ring that kid nephew, to speculate about the dollars price action. The “genius” nailed his last dollar call, lol.

      Oh wait. I have a chart prediction – see the pink comment.
      https://gyazo.com/2634cfd23a346822c641dc01d2729a17

    2. Jim Dandy

      Ted is just trying to shake people up after that stellar GBTC call, figures he can´t be that wrong twice in a row.

  43. Americano

    Discipline!
    If you HAVE TO short miners…..( meaning you are bored & devoid of imagination)
    Simply wait til sub 1300.
    Higher is pointless. It’s as clear as day!
    From the…..
    Mayflower.

  44. allthatglitters

    Long & strong JNUG 100% baby.

    Wish I’d had a crystal ball and bought @ $16.50 instead of $17.50. So it goes. When JNUG is $50 + that difference will mean very little.

    Every big winner for me seems to drop down a bit before a much bigger % gain, so I am more than ok with how this is playing out!

  45. carlvan

    Unlike what some permabear were saying about the “big red candle” of today for gold and miners and the deadly consequences from tomorrow morning, it looks like the price action of today resembles more a bear trap as the miners (am looking at JNUG) are drawing a hammer reversal candle if this holds another 2 hours… who knows..Gary might be right again !

        1. carlvan

          anyway, one shoud not look at JNUG, a 3x leveraged vehicule, the technicals are usually useless here; better to look at GDX and, when you get a signal, possibly use JNUG. At least, that’s what I do…

  47. Steffmeister

    I apologize for my childish posts today, Nada seems to bring out the darker side of me. Clearly this blog is a better place without me. I will check back at spring equinox, summer solstice autumn equinox and finally winter solstice. Like I said before, be careful out there.

    There is a risk that Gold is on it’s way to brake out of trading range to the downside. I hope I am wrong though.

    Hejdå!

    2. Nada

      You brought this on yourself buddy boy. You lost your $hit when Gary informed you that you had to trade by the same rules as everyone else. You were taking your ball and heading home, because you were not appreciated here. Boo hoo steff and good riddance.

      1. Steffmeister

        You had a mancrush on me. I know it hurts but I am in love with a woman 🙂 please keep it decent!

        The meatball offer is still valid though!

        ted keep up the good spirit, you will need it here!

  48. Nada

    Algo trades at the close:

    GDX -270million
    GDXJ +92million
    GLD +88million

    Read into it as you will.

    1. Nada

      BTW.. The time and sales data the this information is derived from. To be honest, when this hits the tape at the close, it has the potential to be a trade that was unsettled. Year or so ago, I would see this hit a little after the close (15-30mins). Now they come in on the buzzer.

      My point is, this data has the potential to have been placed much earlier in the day and why it must be taking with a grain of salt.

  49. ted

    Today’s close in GDX/JNUG says it all. The rally in the miners is over. If you bought on Dec. 13, it’s time to protect profits. I know Gary does not agree with this, so this is just another opinion. However, I do see a possibility that the miners have topped and will break down from its year long trading range. I’m not sure how far the downside is, but will comment more as it progresses.

      1. ted

        Gary, you said yourself that weekly gaps are usually filled? Don’t you see that one from Dec 2016?
        Doesn’t that concern you at all? Would it not make sense for this trading range breakdown (even if it a bear trap) before the next bull run in Gold? I know you’re smarter than that, but I think you got sloppy with this last buy.

        1. Gary Post author

          We entered positions on day 1 and day 2 of a new intermediate cycle. We have a huge cushion on our positions. There is virtually no way we can produce a losing trade.

          How in the world can you possibly say we got sloppy?

          You really need to think before you speak. You often say the stupidest things.

          1. ted

            Sloppy in the sense you have implied this is the bottom for the year long trading range in gold and the miners. I don’t see it. I agree, as a trade you can’t lose. But the next bull leg is a ways away in my view.

        2. Nada

          Sloppy with the last buy?? He bought the swing low on the 13th! Gold moved +70 points and now it was a bad trade?

    2. Nada

      Hey Ted, its great to have different viewpoints. The only reason I busted your balls was due to how you dropped in and started talking $hit about gold on a PM site. You said seem pretty outlandish stuff, but I am sure you were having a little a fun. Keep the viewpoints coming and it would be nice if you can chart your ideas. Cheers

  50. jacob2

    The metals. The waiting is a killer especially while everything else is going up. Old turkey and a believer that this all gets resolved to the upside with the rest of the commodity complex. Do wonder if we need the long anticipated correction first in the SM before this comes to pass? In the meantime just find something else to do then look at a computer screen.

  53. m0ntana

    Just a feeling, we didn’t really get a bloodbath phase in Gold in December as everyone was expecting. But now traders have taken a side, we are already getting one? And real painful one – as one can see.

    1. Gary Post author

      Gold isn’t even below the 10 DMA. There is nothing bloodbath about this decline unless you ignored me and have way too heavy of a position on.

  54. Goild

    It seems that a gold retracement to $1300 or so would be nothing out of ordinary behavior.
    Then pause to think if sinking or rallying.
    Likely rallying and so JNUG at $15.50 would be a good point to load shares.

  55. Gary Post author

    Short term sentiment, especially in the miners, is about to reach bearish levels. The rubber band is stretching to the downside. This is what we need to power the next leg up.

    The further sentiment stretches into bearish levels the more powerful the next leg up should be.

    3. RTTPD

      For some odd reason, this the most bearish/negative/unsure/confused comments I’ve seen posted here during an obvious bullish uptrend since I have been reading this blog.

      Steph wants wants to use a 12x inverse silver etf…..and I just bought more silver miners this morning. Gary is right….big profits are just around the corner

      1. trendyfollower

        Was thinking the same thing. Is this real anxiety or trolling? Some posters here seem to be hard-core trollers.

  58. trendyfollower

    In other news Treasuries are turning down. I think Gary is right about the bond market turning to higher rates, but we should also expect a slow and long basing pattern after 30+ years of a monster bull market. BTW interest rates IMO also follow the climate so higher rates = lower world temperatures. The Global Warming hysteria screams for a contrarian cooling.

  59. zkotpen

    ted,

    I agree with you in spirit — by which I mean, it looks unlikely that gold and GDX will exceed the September high. That would be on yearly and “intermediate” cycles.

    Shorter term, however, you may be jumping the gun.

    A couple of curve balls to note on gold:

    1. The current rally actually looks like it began on October 6, followed by an expanded flat bear trap to the “intermediate” cycle undercut low in December. Looks weird as can be, but the assessment is quantitatively supported.

    2. Shorter term, which is where I think you may be early in your shorting strategy, the wave 3 peak in gold’s move up from the December low looks like it was January 3, not January 4. The latter looks like an overshoot high in a consolidating running triangle (or expanded flat — some sort of sideways, complex consolidation containing an overshoot high). So far, the Jan 9 low in gold is behaving like wave C in this triangle — I will keep monitoring for this, as it should provide one last long trade before the move you suggest actually goes down.

    GDX is a different story: Triangle from the December, 2016 low, is nearing completion, in wave E up. I have been monitoring this since February.

    1. zkotpen

      that wave E up in GDX still appears incomplete.

      Also, thanks for pointing out the weekly gap in GDX down at 19.33.

      Very likely to be filled in 2018.

  60. zkotpen

    People seem to be overlooking the major theme in currencies, including gold, of decreasing volatility since late 2015 in their “3 year” (or whatever folks are calling it) cycle.

    Some think that 2018 will be a year of increased volatility. Not likely, at least not in the longer term cycles greater than yearly, and including yearly and “intermediate” most of the time. All cycles are not only fractal in price patterns, but also in volatility. Hence, the volatility bursts on the shorter time frames — which are all brought quickly back in line with the larger cyclical fractal patterns.

    The theme of volatility reduction has been in play, at larger degrees (“3-year” and “8 year” cycles in gold, for instance) since early 2012. That’s not about to change until “8 year” volatility squeezes some more — “3 year” volatility will continue to contract within that framework, and the others will fall in line as well, kinda like Russian Dolls.

    I would describe 2017 as “volatility hell for GDX”, or less dramatically as year long triangle consolidation.

  61. Goild

    GDX has support at about $22.5 that is about 2%-3% down which is about 10% for JNUG/NUGT.
    Or JNUG at $15-$15.5

  62. jacob2

    Gary, was here and bought despite myself. All the action and chatter reminiscent of the Jan 13, 2016 “undercut” lows. Not a bull could be found. If we’re lucky and history repeats, spooky.

  63. jyoung3759

    Current cycle analysis calls for a correction to 1300.00 levels by 01/21 give or take 2/3 days and then resumption of the rally as Gary has indicated. After that it will likely rally into the 1390-1400 price range before topping out again.

    1. Nada

      Hmm, imo.. From here, a drop to 1300 is not deep enough for a DCL and we are not running to 1390 in the first DC.

  64. Jim Dandy

    It seems a lot of people here are worried about the day to day, predicting the next 20% by predicting the next 2 to 3% wiggle. It can be difficult if you sit at the computer all day, but we should focus on lower left to upper right area of the long term charts, and be sure to be in it for the duration.

    I was buying more yesterday, still have 25% more to add into declines, nibbling here and there on my favorites. No leveraged funds, but some individual miners that trade like JNUG.

    1. Jim Dandy

      The only etf I own is SILJ, bought more yesterday, hope to buy some today if it´s lower. It´s not leveraged but performs like a good junior miner without the company specific risk, so tempers my overall portfolio risk. There are days I wish I had more in my individual juniors and less in SILJ, and days I wish I was only in SILJ, so it balances out.

  65. Jim Dandy

    More carnage in imaginary coinland, where everybody makes 100% per day forever and ever. It´s clear that Asia dominates crypto trading, and they are selling hand over fist while all the westerners are sleeping!

  68. ARends

    @ Jimsee and for those that has not discovered key MA this might help
    I discovered with each instrument like Gold has its key MA that has significance for specific time frames like Gold is weekly! (rest time frames (or most are just noise for confusion but does help on hourly or other secondary plays) that are turning points for cycles that you will see if you look at chart. It is then great to determine targets of of entry and exit with confidence IPOV rather than perceived resistances people try to find in analysis that are actually created by the KEY MA. These key MA are the key to each instrument and is a discovery I made. Hope it helps. People get stuck on 50, 100, 200.
    Gold KEY MA Resistances
    https://invst.ly/6bc7j
    Weekly GDX KEY MA Resistances
    https://invst.ly/6bco7
    Weekly GDXJ KEY MA Resistances
    https://invst.ly/6bce7
    Daily GDXJ more scatty

    1. ARends

      Chart annalists want to confine an instrument price movement to a MA, But finding the MA for the instrument price movement is a better key as you might discover. Well in POV it is the better accuracy to see cycle change potential points of turn for the future and you would not guess as much you will see great er targets of true resistances!.

  69. ARends

    BITCOIN. Now banned by China an S Korea. mmmm problems as other countries might follow suite. The banks would really enjoy that or NOT. The block chain are getting hit hard and dropping

  70. Nada

    Anyway, you can identify which MA is what on your chart? In its current state, its pretty much worthless since you can not discern.

    1. ARends

      Hahaha, its then only for those that can! Clearly I gave the key what to do and then you see them on the left of the chart if you want to create them. Secondly the key is to follow those you see at cycle points that you create. It is a bit of an effort dependent on your system. But for me it has huge value after its been done.
      Most tools actually try find that which you can see with the MA’s.

      Some will surely see the value by not having to pick a top or bottom but have a better indication! In combination with indicators you will get in much quicker.

Comments are closed.