98 thoughts on “DOLLAR:GOLD

    1. Gary Post author

      I can’t predict where ICL’s will occur ahead of time. I just have to try and do it in real time once we get into the cycle timing band for the bottom.

  1. Goild

    Attachment

    Gary,

    Thank you for the dollar/gold analysis.
    What about gold staying in the channel?
    Perhaps tagging again the 200 MVA?

  2. Idontknowwhatimtalkingabout

    Gold looks like it’s going to fall lower than anyone expects with some time…..but what the hell do i know? Still think next leg down is coming on the indexes too. 2450 or lower s&p, lets go

  3. Americano

    For gold to maintain its store of value its ESSENTIAL that it….just like in the three little bears children’s story be “ just right”.
    That means:
    Meandering peaceably between say $1500 & 1100 for a decade or more.
    It’s STABLE. That’s why people trust it.
    Unless it gets disrupted
    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/01/180131095453.htm
    Gold is the safest of bets ( though I don’t like to use “bet” with gold – nor Certificates of Deposits at banks. Maybe silver- by a lil bit – but not gold)
    Unless massive leverage is used. There is simply too much of it in the world & like Dunkin Donuts…..they’ll always “make more” .

    1. Jim Dandy

      Meanwhile BitCon was a short yesterday as mentioned here. I am not sure why you constantly only make comparisons to Bitcon and gold, as if the only option is one or the other. Bitcon has far bigger problems than gold being a competing option, so you might want to look into those since they are what´s going cause you to lose all your money. Things like the fact anybody and everybody can use the same technology and create their own tokens, or that new and better ones are popping up every week. Then there is the future regulation that is sure to come, has nothing to do with gold.

      I just think you are deluding yourself if you believe goldbugs are going to see the light on electronic tokens and move their money to bitcon. It´s already well established that bitcon and tokens are mostly a millenial thing, and goldbugs won´t likely see bitcon as a substitute for physical metal. As it stands now, gold is already far more stable than electronic tokens. In short, bitcon dosen´t offer a goldbug anything gold can´t do, except maybe get ripped off electronically from overseas. Bitcon is proving to not be as anonymous as holding gold, either. Then the stock market is also a competitor to bitcon, not inversely correlated like gold is, so why would happy stock market investors (market goes up every day) move to bitcon, especially as they have Fed backing, while bitcon is anti-fed and waiting for governmental crackdowns?

      Tunnel vision will cause you to go broke, just like it did to silverbugs that held on after the 2011 parabola. Bitcon won´t see $20K again for years, if ever.

  4. Alexandru Popovici

    The weekly swing low in Treasuries delays to occur; maybe Ts want one more leg down – to synchronize with gold.

      1. zkotpen

        It seems very likely 😉

        My target has been $17 area, since we discussed the matter in late February, 2017. Going below the May, 2017, low earlier this month adds to the likelihood of this scenario.

        1. zkotpen

          PS: Gary, I’ve figured out how to make the blog a much better experience:

          I now page down thru ALL posters, except for the post author. Sure, I miss a few folks whose posts I like, but cutting thru the noise is AWESOME!

  5. Goild

    Attachment

    Good day,

    It seems that there is no longer easy and automatic money.
    You must have guts and take risk.
    The easy money is the ANT money.
    The ANT money is truly a piece of cake.
    Grab every day a bit of it.
    Let us make money today.

      1. Goild

        It seems to me that it might be easier as more often one can guess correctly the direction.
        Though in fairness, the easy money is the one that fits one’s personality.

      2. Gary Post author

        LOL if it was truly easy to make money day trading then most retail traders would be rich as many if not most retail traders engage in day trading (gambling).

        The brokerages provide all kinds of “tools” and incentives to encourage this kind of behavior as it increases commissions, but I think we all know the only people making any money day trading are the banks and the brokerage houses.

  6. Goild

    We may have a bull trap this morning.
    Be careful.
    Check the volume.
    We might have a small doji today in the miners.
    The manipulators often rise the price at the open to let it drop by lunch time and then to rise it back to even for the day.

    Dollar is a bit up.

  7. vin

    Finally! Here we go. Vertically up. qqq is up a buck already.

    And, all the experts are so correct on gold! Down it goes. But, jnug is up 40 cents? Has to be a bear trap? Ordinary folks have been warned over and over again by experts.

    1. vin

      It is a BULL trap! Must be. jnug up MORE than 5%.

      I will play it safe! Buy the vertically going up qqq and not buy the manipulated jnug!

      After all 10k by March? April? Latest by June! Sounds like a winning proposition to me.

  8. Robert

    The SPY could have been in a bull flag. It needs to head back up soon or else another plunge is possible

    1. Gary Post author

      I expect the market will be at, or near the all time highs in time for the Humphrey Hawkins address at the end of the month.

      1. Robert

        Maybe the QQQ Gary but not the SPY. Its a big laggard but let us see you have been correct so far on this call

    1. Bob

      They are always a good opportunity for the mice, or more likely the cats, to play; no matter the content.

        1. Bob

          Don’t know – might see some whipsawing in gold; might see the same in SM; or may not. Strange things have happened before and little has happened before. Just not a good time to be comfortable.

  9. Jim Dandy

    Bitcon gamblers can rest easy, turns out Dennis Gartman was a believer and even invested in some blockchain companies (which are at least businesses, unlike bitcon tokens). And we all know Gartman´s predictions usually come true.

    The way RIOT blew up his accounts, we can´t be sure who is better, Gartman or Teddybuns.

  10. Goild

    I was trading JNUG and there was a period where my orders were filled at a very different price, $13.93, than the bid-ask price.

    The issue appears to come from the exchange.
    I am waiting to hear back from my broker with a reimbursement.

    So we must be aware that the system may not function properly and need to check the transactions.

    1. vin

      Can you explain.

      I ask because my order of jnug got filled slightly above my ask price. … nice surprise.

      1. Goild

        Vin,

        The exchange had some problem around 10:30 AM EST. You can see it in the 1 minute candles.
        If you paid more than $0.03 you may call your broker and ask them.

  11. Bluebellkid

    By the way yesterday was not a distribution day because the volume was not that high so that is a good thing. Today is a nice up day but once again the volume is not there. I am however taking some positions anticipating the volume will kick.

    1. Gary Post author

      This is how the government keeps commodity prices contained.

      One just has to accept this if you are going to trade this sector.

  12. Gary Post author

    Notice how many people have either missed the move entirely waiting for the next shoe to drop or have gotten knocked off by one minor down day, which I warned we would have some down days.

    This is what always happens coming out of a YCL. As you can see it even manages to occur during a sling shot move out of a YCL.

    As I’ve been known to say from time to time: Human nature never changes. Until it does we can always depend on most traders to make these same mistakes over and over and over.

    1. Americano

      If Gary is right on his CONSERVATIVE Nasdaq July call…..
      If you take ” The Dream Machine ” aka TQQQ……..
      You’re gaining like 90%.

      Think-About-It.

        1. Bluebellkid

          You don’t think some bought into your “time to buy” , “dangerous to be on the sidelines” right before the big drop?? Tell that to Golddigger who is still maybe $8/share from being break even on TQQQ.

          1. Gary Post author

            And that’s my fault that they have ignored me for 7 months and only now decided to jump on board?

            I tell everyone that if they are late to a trade they should consider passing on it.

          2. Gary Post author

            And let’s not lose track of the big picture. Even if they decided to buy at the exact top they’ve only had to weather a 3 week drawdown. That’s pretty mild in this business. Plus we still have anywhere from 14-19 weeks to go before this intermediate cycle tops. When it’s all said and done they should still walk away with some very nice gains.

            In the meantime those trying to dodge every little wiggle will probably succeed in making little to nothing off the intermediate cycle, just like most people made little to nothing off the last intermediate cycle.

          3. Irksome

            FWIW (right about $0, to be sure), I have followed Gary’s advice, and I’m quite pleased. Yes, I bought a little bit near the top, and that purchase is underwater right now, but here are the purchases I’ve made and the dates I’ve made them, and the % gain/loss:
            Symbol Entry Date Gain/Loss %
            UPRO 3/16/2017 42%
            UPRO 4/7/2017 47%
            TQQQ 5/17/2017 62%
            TQQQ 7/24/2017 42%
            TQQQ 8/16/2017 42%
            UPRO 1/4/2018 -5%
            DUST 2/20/2018 4%

            Grand total gain (last two trades were larger than most of previous): 23%

            Pretty sure Gary’s doing significantly better on the paid side, as he probably dropped leverage but I chose to ride it out (since I’m not currently paying for timely trade suggestions). And if his well-supported arguments continue to play out, I will be happily realizing all of these gains in a month or two.

            And the last trade I included, though Gary probably didn’t recommend shorting a bull market. I’ll be out in a week or so. 😉

            Gary, thanks man.

      1. Gary Post author

        We have some of each. UDOW & TQQQ.

        I suspect before this is over they will both have performed quite well. I have no idea if one will ultimately outperform the other.

    2. carlvan

      Thanks again for your guidance Gary – this time I am in for SM, from last week. I didn’t send a “challenge” notification for this one, as I am in NQ futures, and not stocks/ETF anymore.

  13. Infamous_M

    I just sold all my JNUG and GDX shares I bought yesterday for a 10% profits in JNUG and 3% in GDX.
    Sometimes you just have to take chances.

    1. Gary Post author

      I suspect the banks are about to manufacture another one of those whipsawing ranges where they fleece both bulls and bears for several weeks.

      1. bigglaze

        I thought gold was moving downward until the FOMC meeting next month? (…with the exception of a couple bounces.. or is that what you mean by the ‘fleecing’?)

        1. Gary Post author

          I think the final bottom may occur around that time, but how we get there could be a tortuous path.

  14. Jimsee

    whipsawing ranges are cool – sell enough options on extreme moves to cover costs and wait / see what develops – maybe we get lucky and silver drops a buck one morning :0)

  15. Gary Post author

    Bonds are making things difficult into the close today.

    Once the bonds find their final ICL things should settle down.

    1. DaZeD

      Hi Gary. Do you follow bonds? I was looking at the optix chart for bonds, and they certainly don’t look quite as pessimistic as they did in their post-election lows, and so I’m still waiting for it to deliver an ICL…

    2. Robert

      The market it’s really struggling up here and about to go red. We might not make to the highs I will probably just sell today for whatever profit

    1. Bluebellkid

      Yep, I bailed on two positions that I had just bought. Ole Ken Shreve was right. You don’t get the kind of institutional selling (Smart Money) we just witnessed and it gets resolved in two weeks.

          1. Gary Post author

            Your emotions are saying down because the market isn’t going up everyday like you want it to. None of the indexes are even below the 10 DMA.

            You are going to sell for a loss. You will probably do it several times by buying high and then selling low. In the end you will have made nothing or lost money. On the other hand I’m going to go with the smart money. History says when the smart money index is bullish and the dumb money index is bearish the risk reward is massively in the favor of smart money being correct.

            So by the time the intermediate cycle tops, maybe in May or June, we should have made some nice gains. Those getting sidetracked over and over by volatility will probably just end up losing money.

        1. Bluebellkid

          You are right I am getting whipsawed in some positions. I am actually up on some. The losses are small and I can recover quickly. The markets are flashing red flags and I am going to heed those warnings. It doesn’t concern you Gary that the S&P 500 and DOW are going back under the 50 day??

      1. Robert

        I was away from desk pretty sure I’m at a loss now on the options. Will sell tomorrow hopefully a bounnce

  16. primetime

    Slingshot? Boomerang?…..(THANK YOU BLUEKID)!

    Today, holding old turkey metal, hedged some DSLV and JDST…close to bottom

    Totally loaded the boat with a total averaged 300 shares UDOW and 220 shares TQQQ. Looks a little weak but going with the SMART MONEY, Mr Savage! HA

    Actually, I feel good about the positon. RISK/REWARD is favorable, lets see what happens. Not happy with losses but have patience to let trade work. If losses, will have to regroup.

    Market does appear weak, but all moves now made. Waiting game.

  17. primetime

    Hey Blue,
    What red flags are you seeing. If you have the time to reply, I am curious.

    GBTC was a nice trade, by the way.

    1. Bluebellkid

      The DOW broke above resistance (50 day) last Friday but by the close had given back the bulk of the move and closed just above the line. It sold off yesterday back below the 50 day and then more downside today. The DOW went back above the 50 day today but once again it sold off and there was a 470 point swing from high to low. The S & P 500 story is pretty much identical to the DOW. The NASDAQ if faring a little better in that it has held above the line but it has closed near the lows of the day now for 3 days in a row which is bearish action. What does it all mean?? It means the markets just took a hit and it is going to take some time to work thru it. If we continue to see this type of weakness then we may see sell signals instead of red flags. By the way GBTC hit the 50 day today and was rejected.

      1. primetime

        A 500 point selloff of the Dow is concerning. I am surprised there is that much selling pressure…..dumb money does not want on this roller coaster yet.

  18. Gary Post author

    Bonds are moving down into an ICL. The final days of that process are causing volatility. Once bonds complete the ICL then things should calm down considerably.

    I expect we will get the final ICL by Friday or Monday.

  19. Cybo33

    Seems like there are inflation fears out there. It was a pretty wicked selloff.

    Do you still see the 10000 Mark as a piece of cake by summer?

    1. Gary Post author

      Attachment

      This is what gets everyone on the wrong side of the boat and makes a move to 10,000 possible.

      The more negative the sentiment, the more fuel we have for the next stage of the rally.

      As you can see smart money is already extremely bullish. There hasn’t been one time in the last 9 years where following the smart money was the wrong trade.

      1. Cybo33

        Gsry, the only thong that scared me is all this talk about inflation because the one thing you have always said is that inflation is what cam kill the economy.

        1. Gary Post author

          Oil needs to rally at least 100% in a year or less. We would probably need a spike to $140 or higher to send the economy into recession.

      2. Robert

        This sentiment indicator only seems useful in times of excessive optimism. If you looked at the times of pessimism the market did not dip much. I will still continue holding but this is definitely not an easy way to make money

  20. vin

    To-day was no vertically up day again.

    But, like many others I am hopeful. One of these days we will all be pleasantly surprised. ….. Let us hope that tomorrow is the start of the vertical up parabolic rise. And, we will all be smiles and thank Gary for his GREAT prediction. If not, then may be we are for a multiyear substantial rise. Either way it is a win-win situation except for those who indulged in options.

    Again, those who have been following Gary for a log time have already made a bundle, so a small payback is not an issue. Unfortunately I am a late comer to the 10k is a piece of cake (by March) and 20k is not out of question.

    Though I am holding my breath for a 2k jnug (i.e. 500 before the 4 to1 reverse split). So, I guess I can’t lose either.

  21. bigglaze

    I really don’t know why you guys are dumping your stocks because we had a down day. The Dow has recovered about 4% since it’s low. You can’t expect everything to go up in a straight line???

    1. roadrunner

      i think we will continue back and forth in SM until the end of the month. then we begin to go up. i don’t know that it will be a slingshot, but i expect the Sm to get to new highs next month. that’s my guess and that is the way i am going to play it.

      1. bigglaze

        Calling it a ‘sling-shot’ is very open to interpretation. Some might expect it to meet its former high immediately, others may give it a month. You can’t expect instant gratification from the stock market.

  22. Bluebellkid

    The stock market faded in the final hour, making bearish price reversals after the Federal Reserve released details of its January meeting. The Nasdaq composite went from a gain of more than 1% to end the day 0.2% lower. The S&P 500 cut all its gains as it closed with a 0.5% decline.
    The Dow Jones industrial average lost 0.7% and met resistance at the 50-day moving average for the second straight day. The S&P 500 also met some resistance at its 50-day average, although the Nasdaq is above its own 50-day line.
    The indexes’ behavior around that line is one way to gauge the market’s short-term direction. A retreat below the line would be viewed as a negative sign. Another concern is that the main indexes have faded from early gains the past three sessions, in some cases making bearish price reversals like Wednesday’s.
    Stocks were higher before the minutes of the Fed’s January meeting were released at 2 p.m. ET, then climbed even more once the details came out. But those additional gains vaporized less than an hour later, and selling continued into the closing bell.

  23. palobar

    In January I shared two-time windows on Gold for March. I repeated them early this week. I bet that at least one of the two will offer a major swing point.
    I have not been involved with BTC but I must admit that despite the negative comments, BTC again gave a spectacular rally in just a few days whereas Gold has almost gone nowhere over the last 7 years or so. Hopefully one day we will see moves like that in Gold as well.

  24. allthatglitters

    if an ICL for Gold is, let’s say for the sake of argument, 3 or 4 weeks away, is there not a fair chance the miners could start leading higher well before then?

    Holding JNUG for the long run – too dumb to trade every wiggle, esp. on crazy days like today, so just gonna hold through the whipsaws 🙂

    1. palobar

      If Gold behaves like Gary laid out in his video, then holding JNUG until March might not be a good idea. If Gold makes a high in January (actual) and drops into March, there is a scenario that we could drop all the way into summer. Not saying it will happen, but it is possible.

  25. Goild

    To follow up on the exchange issue.

    My broker, Fidelity, accounted for the correct pricing and credited my account with $540 🙂
    Lesson, keep good records.
    Beware of the Rats, there are too many.

  26. Bluebellkid

    From IBD tonight:
    Final-hour selling hooked the major indexes to their first session of pronounced institutional selling. Investor sentiment on equities continues to cool off. This is bullish for stock investors. The Investors Intelligence weekly survey of market pundits showed bullishness sank for a second week in a row and fell below 50%. At 48.5%, it’s now at the lowest level since mid-September.

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