191 thoughts on “THE IDEA THAT STOCKS ARE IN A BUBBLE IS ABSURD”

  1. Tony

    These guys seem to think more along the lines as Chris longer term also with the Nasdaq hitting 10000 in 2019

    https://longforecast.com/nasdaq-predictions-2017-2018-2019

    2018/02/17. NASDAQ 100 index forecast for next months and years.

    NASDAQ index forecast for February 2018.
    The forecast for beginning of February 7386. Maximum value 7408, while minimum 6570. Averaged index value for month 7088. Index at the end 6989, change for February -5.4%.

    NASDAQ forecast for March 2018.
    The forecast for beginning of March 6989. Maximum value 7038, while minimum 6242. Averaged index value for month 6727. Index at the end 6640, change for March -5.0%.

    NASDAQ index forecast for April 2018.
    The forecast for beginning of April 6640. Maximum value 7390, while minimum 6554. Averaged index value for month 6889. Index at the end 6972, change for April 5.0%.

    Table. NASDAQ Forecast By Month.

    Year Mo Min Max Close Mo,% Total%
    2018 Feb 6570 7408 6989 -5.4% -5.4%
    2018 Mar 6242 7038 6640 -5.0% -10.1%
    2018 Apr 6554 7390 6972 5.0% -5.6%
    2018 May 6607 7451 7029 0.8% -4.8%
    2018 Jun 6736 7596 7166 1.9% -3.0%
    2018 Jul 6964 7854 7409 3.4% 0.3%
    2018 Aug 7030 7928 7479 0.9% 1.3%
    2018 Sep 7110 8018 7564 1.1% 2.4%
    2018 Oct 7368 8308 7838 3.6% 6.1%
    2018 Nov 7242 8166 7704 -1.7% 4.3%
    2018 Dec 7426 8374 7900 2.5% 7.0%
    2019 Jan 7652 8628 8140 3.0% 10.2%
    2019 Feb 7662 8640 8151 0.1% 10.4%
    2019 Mar 8017 9041 8529 4.6% 15.5%
    2019 Apr 8404 9476 8940 4.8% 21.0%
    2019 May 8824 9950 9387 5.0% 27.1%
    2019 Jun 8689 9799 9244 -1.5% 25.2%
    2019 Jul 8880 10014 9447 2.2% 27.9%
    2019 Aug 8957 10101 9529 0.9% 29.0%
    2019 Sep 9405 10605 10005 5.0% 35.5%
    2019 Oct 9184 10356 9770 -2.3% 32.3%
    2019 Nov 9570 10792 10181 4.2% 37.8%
    2019 Dec 9267 10449 9858 -3.2% 33.5%
    2020 Jan 9730 10972 10351 5.0% 40.1%
    2020 Feb 9552 10772 10162 -1.8% 37.6%

    1. carlvan

      did you have an idea of their PAST predictions versus actual numbers?? Just to see if this means anything…

  2. lokum_

    Ok I am a bit confused now – at one point we are a few months away from a bubble top (in your prev video you were calling nasdaq at 20000 by june) , now we are breaking from multi-decade consolidation. Which one is correct ? I bet if market goes to 20 000 and crashes 50-60%, that bubble won’t be re-inflated back easily for at least a few years.

      1. optimal

        Gary,

        So OK we are going to get the bubble, as opposed to long term bull market like Chris Ciovacco is saying? Correct?? Listened from 7:25 Mark

        1. Gary Post author

          If the Nasdaq goes to 20,000 over the next 5-6 months then yes we would be in a bubble. If not then we probably have 10-15 more years to go before this long term bull expires and we enter the next multi-year consolidation phase.

          My thinking is 9 years of QE will cause a violent move to 10,000 – 20,000 very quickly this year. But I’m prepared to be wrong and the long term bull theory could be the correct call.

          1. lokum_

            Now with this consolidation break up scenario seems we are more likely to have continuation market. How is the sentiment on the street and in supermarkets ? Are the common people talking stocks? Do they look ready to drain their deposits and throw them in the stocks and ETFs ? IMHO probably not this year ..

          2. optimal

            Thank you. However, it seems to me that u are just starting to lean a little bit more to the long term bull market scenario.

          3. espresso

            My thought is that rising interest rates and reverse QE will cause the long term bull scenario to play out, mitigating likelihood of the bubble outcome.

            I’d rather have the long term bull… it’s easier to make money and not exit 100% too early because the end of the bubble is so difficult to time effectively.

  3. cazabrujas

    So, does this mean you don’t think we are having a parabola in the coming months any more?

    Looking at the long term charts, I noticed that even on the way up there are steep short-term climbs and drops, you just can’t see them very well when you zoom out to emcompass several decades.

  4. Bluebellkid

    Here’s what History shows for win streaks after a rally/confirmation or follow thru:
    With the S&P 500 now up six sessions in a row, investors might wonder what historically has happened after a six-day run.
    Since 1981, not including the current market, there have been five instances when the S&P 500 rose six sessions in a row.
    What happened next?
    Over the next three to 10 sessions, the S&P 500 typically fell 1% to 1.7%.
    In a broader sense, a glance at the charts in the five instances showed the S&P 500 rising over the coming months in two cases, moving in a rolling sideways fashion in two cases, and a choppy descent in one case.

    1. espresso

      The statistical confidence interval of a set of data with 5 data points is pretty wide. But in general, I would expect some consolidation after such a powerful snapback rally.

      1. Gary Post author

        History would suggest it’s probably still too early for a corrective move. The Nymo isn’t overbought yet, and as I’ve pointed out several times the tendency is for stocks to rally anywhere from 6-8% or more during the first 10-18 days of a new intermediate cycle. The sharper the move down (the more the rubber band gets stretched) the more forceful the initial rally tends to be.

        So usually we don’t see much of a correction in stocks until we get into the timing band for a half cycle low. This is why I say 10-18 days.

        Stocks will be on day 6 Tuesday. Yes there will be down days during this period, but there really shouldn’t be much in the way of a sustained correction for another week or two. I’ve also pointed out that a first daily cycle almost always recovers all of the intermediate decline before topping. And during bull markets the larger intermediate cycle usually rallies for 15 to 20 weeks before topping.

  5. Goild

    Gary,

    This is truly an insightful and credible analysis.
    It clearly backs up your beliefs.

    Congratulations on your research and opinion!!!

  6. NXANDER

    Gary – what is your opinion as to the better investment at the end of 5 years if someone buys now and goes old turkey: QQQ or GDX? Thanks.

      1. ocram

        Sorry Gary,but if you think that the SM will reach its top in summer,how can QQQ be better than miners in 5 years time ?
        Maybe you think that the bull will resume quickly despite the crash.
        Or maybe you think that the positive uptrend of gdx and all gold related investments will not lasts for long.
        I remember that you was convinced just a few weeks ago that miners will experience one of the most powerful bull market of all times over the next few years,have you change your opinion?
        Thank you.

        1. Gary Post author

          If stocks are about to go parabolic then the Q’s are going to be better than GDX right now.

          If not then the Q’s have 10 years to go still. They may or may not be better than GDX.

          They will be safer though as the government will try to protect the stock market. The government will try to suppress gold to keep commodity inflation in check. Even if they can’t keep gold suppressed, as we’ve seen the biggest gains come during the final stages of a bull market. So GDX has many years to go yet before we could see that one go parabolic. Right now it’s in the “difficult” stage of its bull, as we are seeing.

          And let’s not fool ourselves. When someone asks me what I think will do better in 5 years they could care less what is going to do best in 2023. They want to extrapolate my answer to the present. If I say GDX will do better traders will expect GDX to start doing better immediately, when in fact it could take four years of not doing much at all and then in the 5th year it starts to go nuts. How many of you can or would be willing to hold through 4 years of hell hoping that in the 5th year you will make a ton of money?

          1. ocram

            So you are not convinced that QQQ will be better than GDX in 5 years time but you are convinced it will be better NOW.
            Of course there will be many variables,my suspicion is that if a bull market in miners will exist it won’t last more than 3-5 years.
            IF it has started with the baby bull in 2016 it will top around 2020.
            We could understand its evolution by looking at the xau/gold ratio .
            I’m talking about a bull in MINERS not gold of course,during the entire gold bull market from 2001 to 2011 gold and silver outperformed miners wit the exception of the first 3-4 years.

  8. jacob2

    Gary, regarding the BUBBLE : ” if we’re going to have a bubble the SM has to go a very long ways in a very short period of time”. What’s your best guess on this actually happening?

    Personally favor the alternative : secular bull with years to run buy the dips (we will get them). Either way a win as your long the market.

    1. Autobahn

      Gary can predict the bubble but you can only see it after it happened. When you see a chart resembling bitcoin in November-December then you know we are in fact bubbling up. No way to know for sure yet. It starting to look like it.
      So to call a bubble before it happens is to look into the future which no one can but the one who does predict it will be on the border line of genius and insane.
      If it happens like Gary says it would be his greatest call so far . He was on it since before dot com top was about to be broken.

    2. jacob2

      More then 2 scenarios for the SM. The one that actually occurs will likely be the one that no one is discussing.

    1. Americano

      No need for a crystal ball ras, if you have……
      The Mayflower.

      QE powers the sails. See you in the New World !

      1. isavage

        Sure looks to me that the profits of doom for Cryptos will be scratching there heads all to soon as they continue to climb the wall of worry!

        Only problem for me is the Crypto Stocks are not fount running the rally like gold stocks would. Keeping close to the exit door with them in case of retest of the 200 day with BTC.

  10. Alexandru Popovici

    On Treasuries:
    I think Ts set their YCL this week! After all, it’s become too obvious too everyone that interest rates are rising.

    During the ensuing YC advance we should see something interesting that I am convinced will be in BLUEBELLKID’s interest: inverted yields curve, a negative 10y-2y spread.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      i’ll go long T-bonds ONLY on the weekly swing low; longer-term Ts should rise faster during the advance.

  11. didier

    Why only 2 possibilities: immediately a bubble or a 10 year secular bull run? Why would a bubble f.e. one year from now not be a possibility?
    And if we start a bubble now, could it not, after the (megaphone) crash, slowly morph into a secular bull run? Why only 2 possibilities?

  12. Anthonyo

    3 observations/questions on the XVG chart in 2017 till now:

    1) Notice the huge inverse head & shoulders just before the breakout.

    2) Base of breakout was XVG 525 and market recently tagged it in correction… but could the market not be susceptible to perhaps retesting the XVG 500-ish where the median of all prior peaks is?

    3) The height of the long 20-year horizontal consolidation basing is around 275 worth of XVG on average.
    If we add 275 to 525 breakout, we get XVG 800 projection at least.
    Question: what does XVG 800 equivalent number in DJIA, SPX, NASDAQ?

    A quick linear projection yields DJIA 40,000-43,000, and, NASDAQ of $11,000-12,000.

  13. Anthonyo

    Gold VS. long term bull stock market or a bubble vision of 20K NAZ:

    Gary you said: “…GDX has many years to go yet before we could see that one go parabolic. Right now it’s in the “difficult” stage of its bull, as we are seeing.”
    OK so if this is true about GDX, then it could mean stock market will go the route of the 10-year gradual bull market?

    Personally, I PREFER a bubble in stocks now to 10K-20K NAZ…..lot of quick money to be made……Then when it crashes, it will help gold and GDX have a head start in their rallies to the top and will trigger the next bubble which will be in PMs, no?

  14. victor

    Your preferable scenario is my too, so as many others, but it’s too obvious, even if it will go this way the banksters will twist it in such a way that we will made a number of mistakes along that long road…., Banksters has a super powerful computers and hire brightest man to do everything for ordinary people to be left with empty pockets. Although, geopolitical and US situation is quite worrisome, (but, what time in history it was not worrisome?) time is approaching for monetary system to change.
    I believe all our savings like educational plans, insurances for a longer term, RRSP’s and so on…. will become worthless. Most of our “Old Turkey” approach investing become worthless, as one time we come to our computers in the morning and see No Bids on our stocks.
    I’m Insurance broker and recent years I noticed strong downslope in insurances and investments in insurances for a longer terms. People saying the same thing “I’m not sure what happen in 10yrs, I better spend money now” . I myself canceled my family and kids long term insurances, try trading funds for a shorter term. As bankers saing “Dollar today better than a dollar tomorrow”

    1. jskauai

      Victor your spend your $ today for tomorrow it will be worth less is exactly the thinking that was prevalent in the 1970’s. To stop this and gain confidence back Paul Volker and Fed raised interest rate to what would be today insanely high in early 1980’s. Now in hindsight it was very successful.This is this reason why the Fed is so careful not to allow this thinking to take hold again. With the debt levels what they are around the world raising interest rates to those levels would most likely destroy the all the unbacked currencies. IMO, this is one reason why silver is kept weak. Silver is the metal that most people could afford and use in trades if they lost confidence in their paper currency.

      1. RTTPD

        Unless it is revauled much higher, I honestly don’t believe there is enough of it that it could be used on such a broad spectrum. I think the last time it went to 50 a whole bunch of it was melted.

  15. Spanglish Inquisition

    The climbing in boulder canyon is stellar today Gary. Hope the weather is treating you right this weekend. You deserve it with all your callsthe last few weeks.

    1. Gary Post author

      We’ve had a pretty mild winter here in Vegas this year. Getting lots of climbing in.

      Just repeated my hardest send again last week. 12c.

      1. bigglaze

        Couple weeks ago we had a couple days of -10c ..lol. Still teetering around 0 mark. Temperature of +12 in winter would be amazing!

  16. Goild

    As per this afternoon gold is down, USD up.
    Then Tuesday those who left Gold/miners on the table will wake up slaughtered…

    Spansky had a good hunch…

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m showing gold barely up .2%????

      How do you know if that will hold or get reversed by Tuesdays open?

      1. Goild

        No way to know.
        When I looked at USD it was at+63%. Maybe just a jitter.
        However, as hunches go, indeed we can have a bad awakening on Tuesday for gold.

      1. Gary Post author

        I strongly suggest you learn how to control your emotions so you can get out of the dumb money camp and move to the smart money camp.

          2. Christian

            Like I said on Friday…

            The big picture is still intact but a pull-back to the 23%Fib, which coincides with SPX 2700 “The Psychological Line in The Sand” is not out of the question this coming week 🙂

            For those of you still sitting on the bench; this will be your chance to load up!

  19. Americano

    Gary,
    I could see you doing a chart analysis of Bitcoin on April 1st ( April Fools Day) while maintaining consistency with all your previous statements regarding it.
    It would be fun & insightful…..at the same time.
    Please consider. Doing so on that day won’t get anyone to wrongly think that you all of a sudden decided to jump on….
    The Mayflower 🙂

    1. Gary Post author

      I think one would have to be insane to throw their money at that thing. It’s exhibiting all the signs of a busted bubble.

      Fundamentally it does none of the things that originally drew people to it. The expenses are huge, transaction times are gigantic. There are much easier ways to move money and cheaper. It also appears that the exchanges are fairly easy to hack, and when you lose all of your money there is no insurance to make you whole again. And to top it off just like I’ve been saying there’s no way governments are going to let citizens print their own currency. We are starting to see countries banning cryptos. It will just go down the food chain until all countries ban it.

    1. Carl

      Congratulation ras. You have won a trophy for sending the less constructive comment on this post. Bring some informations to support your idea rather than just acting like a scam.

      2. ras

        Not interested in polemical dialog. Do your own due diligence. If you reach a different conclusion, no problem here.

  21. roadrunner

    I could see the SM take a pause here or a bit lower for a couple days this week, until we head higher, most likely until the FED meeting and everyone gets worried what the money masters will say. but that is just my opinion.

    1. DaZeD

      Maybe it takes a pause, but at most it moves flat. No point in not being in the market at this point still with so much room to run.

  23. Goild

    It seems the hunch will turn out true.
    Tomorrow those of us holding gold/miners will be in some pain.
    But we will make money anyway.

  24. Goild

    I have a question and need advice.

    I will be happy to get 5%-6% a year in a retirement account I have.

    Any suggestions?

    Would very much appreciate it 🙂

  25. Gary Post author

    It’s starting to look like the dollar and euro are going to reverse their intermediate trends before they reach those long term trend lines.

    Stocks & oil can rally along with the dollar, but gold probably won’t.

    Based on last years YCL occurring in summer I’m going to say we’ll need one more complete daily cycle for oil to achieve it’s YCL.

      1. Gary Post author

        Well to begin with December wasn’t the yearly cycle low for gold, July was. We are unlikely to get three cycles without some serious manipulation. The dollar should produce one advancing daily cycle and then roll over again, probably on the next FOMC meeting.

        So gold should complete it’s ICL in the middle of March.

        But I’ll say this again, one has to be cautious with gold. It is clearly being suppressed as it’s not being allowed to make a higher high even though the dollar is making lower lows. The forces in power aren’t stupid. They understand that inflation causes recessions and they’ve figured out that commodity prices can be kept in check by suppressing gold. Since they have unlimited funds and they make the rules, it just doesn’t make sense to have a huge portion of ones capital in long metals trades at this time. We will need to see some evidence that gold is at least trying to break free of the suppression before really getting frisky with metal trades.

        2. Bluebellkid

          In the video I posted earlier on this thread the guy mentions that gold is less than a $100 from its all time high in Canadian dollars.

    3. Anthonyo

      Question:
      How can oil rally with a rallying USD when they have inverse relationship like that of gold and USD.

  26. Christian

    I was secretly hoping for a “bull trap” so that I could make a bit more money with the Miners but I think your call is BANG ON Gary — look at the YEN. Very convincing.

    The buck is ready to bounce!

  27. Anthonyo

    GAry,

    You said “Based on last years YCL occurring in summer I’m going to say we’ll need one more complete daily cycle for oil to achieve it’s YCL.”

    What does this actually mean right now until summer?

  30. Robert

    Looks like the correct strategy was to sell stock positions at the 20 dma for profit and wait for a dip to buy back. Anyone still holding probably too greedy and risking a loss of their gains

    1. Gary Post author

      Tell us in real time where you would buy back.

      In real time one could have panicked and sold at any time last week anticipating a pullback. They would have gotten left at the station.

      After the fact everyone has 20/20 vision. And if you think you are going to be able to time every wiggle in the market you are deluding yourself. This is why most day traders lose money.

      1. Bluebellkid

        “In real time one could have panicked and sold at any time last week anticipating a pullback. They would have gotten left at the station.”
        I “panicked” and sold everything (including GBTC, primetime) when the markets reversed and gave up the days gains Friday. The markets ended up for the day but just didn’t like the action on a Friday before a 3 day weekend. Ken Shreve on investors.com has mentioned a couple of times that the huge bouts of institutional selling (distribution days) we just witnessed in this recent sell off don’t normally get resolved quickly. We all know these markets are anything but normal but it stuck in my mind. One other thing to note is that research shows a “distribution day” that occurs early in a new rally attempt is often a bad omen.

        1. Gary Post author

          Have you made a habit of doing this? And if so how many rallies have you missed during this bull market if every reversal day kicks you out of your position.

          There have been no distribution days as there hasn’t been a down day yet.

          There were only 6 distribution days over the final 2 months of the rally. That doesn’t seem exceptionally large.

          1. Gary Post author

            The heavy volume rally in the metals last week convinced you that the rally had legs. As we can see that hasn’t panned out.

          2. Bluebellkid

            When the miners reversed off the bottom on Friday the 9th it did so in convincing volume. I was out of pocket that day as well as Monday so pretty much missed the action in real time. There were only two other above average volume days after that so that was the first red flag. It was a very nice move but when it couldn’t hold the 50/200 day that was not good.

      2. Gary Post author

        Let me show you what happens in real time.

        The fear of losing ones profits or having to weather a drawdown causes traders to panic and sell quickly. Then emotions kick in. should you buy back after the first down day? The second? Maybe wait and see if we get three. In real time if we get two then one is most definitely going to wait and see if there is a third. If we get three then it’s going to look like price is heading back down and there’s no way you will buy at that point anyway.

        Instead the market rallies again leaving you behind and in the process becoming overbought. Now you are like a deer in headlights. You’re afraid to buy into overbought conditions because you might have to weather…. a drawdown. That’s what you were trying to avoid to begin with. So you wait for another pullback. Maybe you don’t get it for awhile. The advancing phase of a new intermediate cycle can stay overbought for a while.

        So what ends up happening is you either end up getting whipsawed back and forth trying to day trade the move or you wait until your emotions give you the all clear and that of course is the same all clear that everyone else is waiting for as well. So the move runs out of buyers short term and a correction ensues. You end up selling into the correction. This is how traders lose money on the long side in a rising market.

        2. Bluebellkid

          When one takes a position in a stock and it goes against you the best thing to do is cut losses quickly so that you maintain capital. If one takes a position and has a nice profit and then doesn’t know what red flags and outright sell signals are and ends of giving it all back and then some then they deserve that.

          1. Gary Post author

            I’ve watched over the year is literally thousands of people have destroyed their portfolio with tight stops. Exiting quickly when the position didn’t go as anticipated. You are basically requiring that you time perfect entries, and very few people can consistently do this. So often what happens is they take multiple small losses, and many times they have the correct trade and if they would have held their position would have made a nice profit instead they end up destroying their portfolio by a thousand small cuts

          2. Gary Post author

            Of course we don’t know how the day will close but so far panicking on Friday has only rescued you from a 4 point drawdown today. If we close up you will have gotten knocked out and will then have to try to figure out how to get back in.

            When I see the smart money confidence at bullish levels and dumb money at bearish levels history says I should follow the smart money and not try to get too cute with my positions.

        4. Bluebellkid

          “Instead the market rallies again leaving you behind and in the process becoming overbought. Now you are like a deer in headlights. You’re afraid to buy into overbought conditions because you might have to weather…. a drawdown. That’s what you were trying to avoid to begin with. So you wait for another pullback. Maybe you don’t get it for awhile. The advancing phase of a new intermediate cycle can stay overbought for a while.”
          You view the stock market thru the lens of an ETF world. I mostly play “growth” stocks and have a list of potential buy candidates sitting on my desk as I type. I spent time this weekend looking for companies with good fundamentals and that were close to a “buy point”. So I don’t have to attempt to catch every bottom or what I think is a bottom.

  32. bigglaze

    Not all of us are that skittish Gary. Some of us do listen. I bought the Monday (12th) after the Friday bounce and am still holding. No day trading, no emotional dumping. Staying the course.

  33. Infamous_M

    I’m doing very well today, I took Bluebellkid advise and bought some GBTC last friday and as of now it’s up close to 15%. Thank you sir!

    1. Gary Post author

      I don’t see where anyone bought gbtc in the challenge last Friday. Monday morning quarterbacking no longer flies on this blog. You can’t come here after the fact and tell us you bought something after it’s already gone up. No one will believe you.

  35. Goild

    The JNUG rats are voracious lately.
    The spread now is two points rather than one, and the seepage can be two points rather than one.
    I now show some profit for the day,

  37. Jim Dandy

    Bitcoin is looking ripe to short in this area, just enough of a bounce to get bagHODLers all excited again, an additional push higher today to ¨confirm¨the bull is back on, which will turn out to be a bull trap. We should see sub $4k by summer.

    1. Roy Batty

      Awesome, let us know what percentage of your portfolio your using to short it with alright? Should be fun.

  39. BeachandBiscuits

    For those interested in learning cycles trading it looks like the late Walter Bressert’s son (Jerome, who I believe is his son) is launching/ relaunching his dad’s course materials on cycles trading at https://cycletraderpro.com/

    I have no financial interest in this and have not bought it at this time, but just saw his launch video on YouTube.

    Walter Bressert was the guy Gary learned from or at least who he has recommended to look up in the past when people ask how to learn cycles trading.

    1. carlvan

      Thanks for this link. Interesting but they are not cheap! I sent them a mail to know about their system performance as they don’t provide any stats

    2. Christian

      Interesting — I still have Walter’s original book/paper that he published years ago, albeit a bit outdated but it certainly gave me a good foundation to start with.

      I will say this though.. it doesn’t matter how many courses you sign up for. Real time experience is the real teacher because INTUITION and FEEL is something you develop over time.. there are no short cuts in this business kiddos!

      Gordon Ramsay would approve of this message 🙂

    2. roadrunner

      I think you said 21/22 FEB and then a stronger date in late March. But according to your system, all these dates mean is one of 4 things can happen…correct?

      1. palobar

        Hello roadrunner,

        Yes, of four things can happen because we always need to accept that everything is possible. Its not easy to know well in advance whether the time window will give a high or a low. However, once you get there then depending on what the market is doing at that time you can assess your probabilities and act accordingly. Indeed March will be stronger than this one.

        Mark the following dates on your calendar for Gold (allow +/- 2 days):
        17 March
        26 March
        11 April
        23 April

        I hope that will work well for everyone here. Good luck.

  41. vin

    Is btc the future? It is turning out to be a better “investment” than PM and even SM.

    ted, do you think it will be worth 100k by 2019? Piece of cake? And, the 10m question? Could it be 250k by 2020?

    Now is you time tell us.

    1. didier

      You are talking price targets but if i ask you how blockchain works you probably don’t have an answer. Maybe it will go to whatever but btc blockchain technology is outdated.

      1. vin

        I wish I knew much about anything?

        Blockchain technology, or in fact any other technology for that matter, can never beat the (cyber) printing press as long as the operators have the power.

    2. Americano

      Haven’t seen ted on Mayflower today. He could be amassing additional funds for the
      ” March to $25K June ”

      Thanks to all those praying for us. It’s working !

        1. Spanglish Inquisition

          Get LTC on coinbase. Send it to binance. Transfer it to btc. Then buy VEN. Thank me later! Research Ven if curious

  42. mexican

    Perhaps just about time to load up JNUG shares this could be the bottom or very close to it and the next leg up. Miners getting ass kicked!!

        1. vin

          How? You sure do have a smelly nose.

          You didn’t tell me your preference? Garlic or onions? Or, are you in both?

      1. vin

        In fact the way things are going, any food should do well. Pork? Corn? Even wheat? And, what not.

        If Gary is correct in his prediction of the coming SM bubble, then the next bubble will be food. And, that will be a real BIGGY.

        2. BeachandBiscuits

          Agree. The agriculture sector in general should do pretty well over the next couple of years given rising inflation IMO.

  44. Anthonyo

    Christian,

    Oil is approaching $62 kill zone… It actually went as high as $62.68 on Monday…. we should see it fall down again now to $55-$56.
    If it breaks down through $55, then $49-$50.
    You still in?

    2. Christian

      It’s tempting but I’m currently on the fence :/ I’m worried that the Stock Market rally might inadvertently light a fire under OIL’s butt.

        1. Christian

          The S&P is lagging but make no mistakes; we’re only 7 days into this 1st Daily Cycle!

          That being said.. I’m gonna go ahead and buy a few shares of OILD and I’ll place my ‘Stop Loss’ right above today’s high in case CRUDE reverses on a whim.

          Ps: The 2 hour chart of OILD is giving me a BUY signal 🙂

          Let’s see what happens..

          1. Robert

            It is lagging very badly. Looks like more frustration ahead on SPY maybe I should just lock off the computer till next week. All im looking for is near the all time high to take profit on options

          2. Anthonyo

            DJIA & SPX expended a lot of energy last 2 weeks, so it looks like a breather irregardless of what the drug-induced high NASDAQ does.

            Im short oil still as well hoping for a turn around down to $56 zone.

          3. Gary Post author

            Robert,
            The problem is glaringly apparent. You have way too much of your portfolio in options. The huge leverage is causing your portfolio to swing back and forth by massive amounts making it impossible for you to control your emotions.

            Clearly even though you said you would buy today, in real time you would not have been able to do so.

            If you will listen to me on this one you will greatly improve your chances of making money and being able to control your emotions.

            No more than 10% of your account in options trades.

  45. Infamous_M

    GDX having a hard time breaking 21.93 today with GOLD close to 1,330. I’m almost certain we’re going to see a couple UP days this week. Just bought a couple thousand GDXJ and JNUGT.

    1. Gary Post author

      Both GDX and GDXJ are potentially going to close below the 10 DMA today. No institutional money will be buying below that level. In fact we probably lost institutional money once the 200 DMA failed to hold.

      Why would you choose to fight the trend instead of join it?

      The time to fight a trend is when sentiment gets extremely lopsided, or maybe when the technicals become extreme (Bollinger band crash signal). That was the case in the stock market last week. It’s not the case in the metals. Sentiment is neutral at best.

      When I see comments like this it makes me think a lot of people are simply gambling, not investing. If that’s the case wouldn’t it just be easier to run down to the local casino?

        1. Gary Post author

          I’m not afraid. The smart money confidence says that big money institutional investors aren’t afraid. The COT levels indicate the commercials aren’t afraid.

          People that have way too much of their capital in options are afraid.

      2. RTTPD

        ” When I see comments like this it makes me think a lot of people are simply gambling, not investing. If that’s the case wouldn’t it just be easier to run down to the local casino? ”

        I was just like the poster above…..that is why I came here to hear your philosophy.

        Now I sell a little early before the daily cycle tops and just wait for everything to roll over and bottom again.

        Trying to pick through all the little wiggles for a smidgen of daily profit…… you’re destined to eventually catch the falling knife.

        Been there many times and would rather not go back.

    1. vin

      10k is a piece of cake! by 2018 March? Maybe not. April? Most retail traders will miss this opportunity.

      Ask Gary if you have any doubts. 20k is not impossible.

    2. carlvan

      Look at the daily time frame: the big white candle of Feb 15 is just holding prices very well (and there were several big whites the days before that one); I see this as normal consolidation, which is a sign of a heatlhy bull leg just starting

      1. vin

        Maybe! But is this called the parabola phase of the vertically UP market? I am confused. I need some help here.

        1. carlvan

          Now, looking at the hourly chart, I see a nice cup with handle (though a bit irregular) in the making after the strong bullish trend from Feb 9. Right handle in the making, would be confirmed only by a break above 6843

  49. Anthonyo

    OK good stocks decline in earnest, NASDAQ dragged down by the other 2, …..stocks need a breather after so much energy was spent in the last 1-3 weeks….
    Like I said this morning I dont see stocks rallying, I see NASDAQ rallying.

    This will set up a good buying opportunity in stocks, more downside to some tomorrow or this week?

    …and a good set up too for oil to take the 2nd leg down to $55 area.

  50. jacob2

    market in a trading range 2500 – 2750 going to frustrate everyone for a long time. Title on this article future tense. No bubble.

      2. Gary Post author

        The bet is 10K by July. The intermediate cycle should have about 15-20 weeks to rally. This is week 2.

        20 weeks would take us to the first week of July.

        1. MrBurns

          That would be a face-rip rally of epic proportions. Also you did mention that May might see the target hit, still on board with that or was that a side-guess.

          1. Gary Post author

            The Nasdaq is just a little less than 4% from the all time highs. It could make it back to that level in two or three good days.

    2. Gary Post author

      LMAO I absolutely will save this one. 6 weeks from now I’m going to post it as an example of the ultimate dumb money call.

      1. Gary Post author

        Seriously why would the Fed allow the market to drop that much right in the middle of a rate hiking cycle?

        We know that central banks intervene in the markets. What possible reason could there be to all of a sudden step aside and allow the market to crash? In fact they would almost have to cause the crash as the market has no catalyst to drop that far all by itself.

        1. Gary Post author

          I’m going to go out on a limb and say someone bought a truck load of puts right at the bottom of the correction and is trying to convince themselves they didn’t completely screw themselves.

          1. MegaMind

            This is based on technical indicators…I have no clue what the fed will do…if you ask me 17000 – 19000 will create the sling shot move up to 40,000 by next year…big sling shots need big drops…

            the next drop will be the second of three. The final third drop will make all smart money to sell and start to look like dumb money. in my books, there is no smart money on this planet…

  52. Goild

    No, no, no,

    Most here are not investors, or else, but shear speculators.
    Yes, that is right SPECULATORS.

    That includes me, we want easy money which actually is not that easy.

  53. MegaMind

    Also for GDXJ, my target is 22…that is JNUG will be 3 by then… mark this as well as dollar is rallying and will crush miners in the next few weeks….if you are holding miners, sell them now…and go short if you have big balls

  54. Goild

    By the way, I figured out how to put my hands on some extra money.
    I need advice where to put that money.
    You guys are the experts, please suggest.
    I am not greedy, just 5%-6% a year would do it.
    Thanks!

  55. victor

    Goild, seems like you have adventurous spirit, but still don’t look at new sector been born that sound louder and louder every week… , hmm, No attention from you as many other here on cannabis sector.
    Why I’m here in Canada holding US California cannabis stock but you don’t? Buy CALI it’s still cheap …
    Today, looks like cannabis sector did find the bottom and start advancing, despite the stock market retraced back after 6 days rally.
    That’s what I would do with your extra money…

  56. Goild

    Victor,

    Thank you for your suggestion.

    I will take a look and perhaps put a bit of money there.
    Is there an ETF to look at?

    I prefer not to get into individual stocks.

    2. Spanglish Inquisition

      VEN / vechain if you’re looking at crypto world end need a solid profitable company to invest in

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