THE RECOGNITION STAGE

At some point in any bull the market finally “catches on”. That recognition phase shows up as an explosive expansion in volume on the weekly charts. 

In early `05 the market finally figured out that the steady rise in oil price wasn’t a fluke. That it was in fact a massive bull market in the making. You can clearly see this “recognition phase” in the two charts below.

The same thing happened with the major mining stocks in early `09.

Silver has now reached the recognition stage.

The market has also figured out what the bellweather mining stock of this secular bull is.

308 thoughts on “THE RECOGNITION STAGE”

  1. jc

    Silver is going to have a big day tomorrow. We saw this a couple sunday nights ago where silver surged in Asian trade and was up big eod monday.

    Just a quick question , as im curious to know at what dollar point do you think the oil prices will taco the economy? $140 did it last time. Just wondering where your alarm goes into the red.

    Also Gary, I subscribed in late dec. I am now up 48% for the year because of you! Thank you very much you rock!!!!

    Joe

  2. Gary

    I think high oil has probably already irreversibly damaged most emerging markets. And it’s probably on the verge of poisoning the rest of the global economy too.

  3. DG

    Ravi: from the previous comment string:
    ravi: That’s probably a good way to do it (futes being 80¢ over SLV), but I am not quite getting the numbers to work. SLV closed at 34.69. Kitco shows the futures at 35.97 + 30¢. That means the futes closed at 35.67 or about $1.00 over SLV…?

    And thanks Brian.

  4. TZ(5288)

    DG,

    >ravi: That’s probably a good way to do it, but I am not quite getting the numbers to work. SLV closed at 34.69. Kitco shows the futures at 35.97 + 30¢. That means the futes closed at 35.67 or about $1.00 over SLV…?

    Kitco’s charts mirror the Nymex/Comex which closes at 5:15pm eastern. SLV closes at 4pm eastern. That is the difference you are seeing.

    Kitco’s charts are accurate, 24hr, correct live prices.

  5. TZ(5288)

    Note also that the Nymex/Comex/CME (goes by three names, ugh) opens at 6pm eastern on Sunday which is the same time that the kitco charts start updating as well.

  6. AGoldhamster

    @mlmt – you were warned not to be short over the weekend

    @jc – crude, including everything else, highly likely will go up into june, when likely most markets will peak.
    time more important than price.
    later fed to print like crazy with a final runnup into yearend – before it is “game over” again for a year or two.

    Expecting silver to peak either today or (more likely) tomorrow. Possibly around 37.

    ***Chart***

  7. Poly

    Those charts are so hot, they should be illegal!

    Friday’s action was amazing and after hours is already up 2%, could be another lockout day tomorrow.

    No way of knowing when, but this market heat is going to throw us a big short term drop, at some point. Watch your leverage and don’t puke your Silver at the bottom of that dip!

  8. AGoldhamster

    shortterm peak … not sure what happens thereafter.
    would have expected south from there – but with the saudi muslims coming into play … not a sure bet.
    Anyway I will be prepared to take a lot of the table.

  9. TZ(5288)

    The difference in SLV price vs ‘silver’ now is that SLV closed at 4:00pm on friday.

    Silver, however, continued to trade and rise into the futures close of 5:15pm friday.

    Since Kitco (and most other “gold”/”silver” charts) use the futures pricing, they will all show gains or losses on SUNDAY based on that Friday close of 5:15pm which is LATER than the SLV close.

    So SLV won’t match up.

  11. Poly

    Hamster. 3 day drop is all I see, big enough to cough up a lot though. But just don’t see how this doesn’t get to the $40’s.

  12. DG

    Makes sense, TZ. I can do the math from there assuming the normal approximately 80¢ spread (Yes, even I can do math!)

  14. Brian

    TZ, Give me a rundown on the best place(s)for PM futures education. I have traded before with the Russell, but never with PM’s. Small contracts vs Large etc. If it isn’t too much trouble.

  15. trond56

    I think the explosion in silver just the last hour is margin calls in Usa on the shorts, being realized before they go to bed. When Usa goes to bed, then Asian traders will probably take profit and start a dip, maybe beginning in half an hour. So what about exiting now at 36.30$ and buy back a little later?

  16. Gary

    Trond,
    Are you really willing to lose your position without even having the dollar tag the November low yet?

    Maybe someone that tried to get cute during the fall run should relate how well that worked for them.

  18. Gary

    Besides even if silver does pullback you won’t be able to buy anyway because you will be wondering if the pullback is going deeper.

    Then when it turns it will run all the way back up before you can pull the trigger.

  19. Razvan

    trond
    dont even try to play that game the way this market is behaving! I tried that 2 weeks ago and by one o’clock in the morning the price was still creeping up so i jumped back in right before the thing took off the next morning! Now is not the time to try to save 50cents or less.

  22. jeff

    brian
    i posted on the last feed, but ya’ll left. i said i will pay 3x my wages in taxes this year.. shoot i mean this leg. i guess we will start the a wave before years end.

  26. DG

    Wes–don;’t know if you ever saw this response from the previous comment string:

    Wes: Two responses–First I don’t see this as either or. I have over 1/3 of my net worth long PM’s. That’s about enough for me ( suspect I’ll wind up at 1/2 though 🙂 If I want to “piddle” with other trades what’s the harm? I have lots of cash. Second, I trade because I love to and always have. It feels like an art form to me. Gary climbs rocks, and that’s not for money. Just because trading has money for a base doesn’t mean you can’t enjoy it. Gary piddles with weightlifting and I piddle with trading. I play poker, chess, backgammon, bridge, etc. and am pretty good at all of them. To me, trading is the best game every invented. I make money at it pretty consistently so it’s a hobby that actually pays me. And if I make a pile in AGQ at the same time, all to the good.

  31. Gary

    I’m almost certain silver will go considerably above $80 during this bull. But I seriously doubt it will make it past $50 during this C-wave. I know I will be selling at $50 and I expect almost every smart money trader in the world will too.

    At $50 silver will be almost 100% above the 200 day moving average. I don’t want to hold anything that stretched above the mean. You are just asking to get caught in a severe regression to the mean event.

  32. Wes

    DG,

    I saw it.

    I just don’t know what to make of that reply.

    I think this is where I’ll say it’s none of my business and sign off.

  33. funmike

    Perhaps you will address this in the premium service but what strategy will you use as we near $50. Set a moving stop to take advantage of any last minute gains or just set a price and sell when it hits that level.

  34. DG

    You’re always welcome to share your thoughts Wes. I have a pile in AGQ, SIL, and SLW and like to trade on the side, and I make money at it. I enjoy pitting myself against the mkt in this way. Not sure what is not clear about that, or what is bad or damaging about it. I’ll never put 100% of my liquid assets into PM’s.

  35. cs3283

    Gary, if the dollar has not reached it’s November low by the time silver reaches your target will you still sell? And conversely, if the dollar tags the November low and bounces and silver has not reached your target will you sell? How much of your PM buy/sell timing do you base on the dollar? Or do you strictly look at timing bands and mean reversion for the PM’s with the dollar as backdrop? Thanks.

  37. Beanie

    The precious metals “secular” rally might actually end sooner than I originally thought. It won’t take a few years. It won’t even take a year. This is a replay of 1980 for silver. It is now reaching the parabolic blowoff phase, similar to what oil did a few years ago from 100 to 147, and an exact duplicate of what silver did in 1980. Silver rally will probably end at near 50, a 50% upside from here. Will there be some sort of government intervention (resulting in silver’s collapse) when it gets up there? Highly likely.

    Now, I’ve looked at the valuation of stocks like SLW just based on the kind of revenue growth they are generating. Revenue for SLW was about $360 million last year, growing at 33% year over year. The impressive thing is their profit margin, which is near 60%, owing to the rise of the silver commodity. In many bull markets, that kind of growth and profit can garner a valuation of $15 billion market cap, as SLW does.

    However, unlike many other bull markets, silver is different. For most companies, continued expansion of market cap is normally due to increase product offerings going to more and more people. I don’t see that in silver. Growth and income are rather temporary if you think about it.

    As such, this makes SLW and its elk, extremely overvalued. I would say they are even more overvalued than the internets back in 1999. Some Internets then were making money, and they had a lot of future (many years down the line) potential. Even those that weren’t making money (like Amazon.com) had lots of future potential expected many years down the line.

    However, silver and gold are very “temporary”, in whichever way you think about it. As such, this puts their valuations at nosebleed bubble levels only rivaled by the nonsense such as the Tulipmania. SLW’s p/e is at 72 right now, but if you consider it has no future (meaning it will never be producing as much as its current p/e suggests), you can see what kind of ponzi fume this thing is running on.

    50% more upside is what I think will be the ultimate end to the silver bubble. Now, if you knew there’s a good chance a $34 stock, any stock, has only $16 upside before it all ends, what would you do? Not such a great investment; perhaps a good trade. If I knew KO (currently trading at $60) has another $30 to it before it all ends, I’d likely start finding myself a new investment. You would too.

    It’s a good idea to start locking in some profits on the way up, never to rebuy with those profits.

    Remember my cautionary tale. I know many will want to sell everything they have and go all-in silver as this bubble inflates more.

    Be careful out there. It could all end overnight with the magic wand from the government.

  39. jeff

    beanie
    do you work in the government. what you say sounds like absurd comments from our leaders
    are you barnnie frank?

  40. Otis

    Pima,

    Thanks for contributing your EW count. It looks like you may be counting 4 waves complete with an extending 5th? I’ve always found EW to be fascinating when it actually works out. Like you said it is often best at predicting the past. But I do have a lot of respect for the analysis guys like Pug and Alpha do.

    Gary – Just wanted to say thank you. Even though your system seems so simple, another poster was correct in saying a majority of traders/investors couldn’t do what you do. I would have sold my position long ago and missed a lot of this move and then been afraid to chase. The quality of the regular blog contributors is also amazing. Gobble gobble.

  41. Otis

    Silver looks like it closed on the rising trendline from 11/10 and 12/10 tops on friday and is now nicely above. Impressive! Let’s see if we can stay above it.

  42. makutaku

    Beanie: Now that you mentioned you best guess on the maximum price of silver, could you please also mention your best guess on how the government would intervene ?

  43. makutaku

    This is unbelievable:

    “WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Most economists believe the Federal Reserve’s bond-purchase program is helping to support U.S. growth, though many remain skeptical, a survey released on Monday found. “

  44. jabalong

    Beanie,

    Check out the first chart in this update from the Aden Sisters back on 23 Jun3 2010:

    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/aden/aden062310.html

    Comparing the current bull market in gold to the one in the 1970-80s as well as to the Nasdaq/internet run, it suggests that we’re still about two years away from a blow-off top on a parabolic rise.

    If anyone has an up-to-date version from the Aden Sisters and/or one with silver, I’d be interested to see it.

  47. Gary

    Hammy,
    Might I suggest you read through several weeks of reports so you can understand what is moving this market. You are trying to pick a top based on charts.

    That’s not possible in a final parabolic move like this. You will just end up exiting way too early and leaving a fortune on the table.

    The driver of this move is the dollar collapse into the three year cycle low. Once that is complete then we can start looking for a top in the metals.

    The current cyclical setup has high odds of moving below the March 08 bottom.

    Once the Nov. yearly cycle low is breached the world will understand that there are very serious problems brewing in the US dollar and the mass exodus out of dollars will begin in earnest.

    That is when the real gains will begin in the sector. One doesn’t want to miss that because they tried to pick a top based on lines on a chart.

  48. Silverman

    Beanie,

    Thanks for taking the other side of the trade. Don’t worry about Gary’s subs. We’ll be fine. However, if you can recommend some other stocks with $16 upside in the near term, that would be much appreciated.

  49. Gary

    Beanie,
    During the final parabolic bubble in 1980 gold rallied 300% in one year. The Dow:gold ratio reached a level of 1:1.

    We are no where near that kind of panic buying climax yet. Silver hasn’t even reached nominal new highs yet let alone inflationa adjusted highs.

    Eventually we will reach an 80’s style bubble phase and probably even go significantly beyond as the structural debt levels this time dwarf any other period in history.

    Unless the government comes to it’s senses and halts the debt spiral we will ultimately have no choice but to hyperinflate the currency. Either that or we will have to resign ourselves to a deflationary depression many multiples worse than the Great Depression.

    One way or the other this debt spiral has to be cleansed and so far the idiots in Washington and at the Fed have shown a complete lack of commonsense because they just keep making the problem bigger.

  50. Gary

    Beanie,
    Just like I warned, inflation is starting to weigh on the stock market. In the last month stocks have struggled to add 1.5%.

    Silver is up 28%
    Oil 14%
    Gold 7%
    and the CRB 6%

    Liquidity is leaking out of the stock market and flowing into the commodity markets just like I said it would. It’s why the Fed can’t print prosperity. All they will ultimately accomplish is to create runaway inflation which will kill the stock market and the economy just like it did in 08.

    Ben is making the same mistake that he made in 08 and he’s going to get the same result.

    Unfortunately he’s too stupid to learn his lesson the first time and I expect if he doesn’t get fired he will make the same mistake a third and fourth time also.

    I mean who can take this guy serious when he takes credit for reflating the stock market but then in the same sentence denies that his policies are driving commodity inflation.

    Does this guy really think that he can control where liquidity ends up?

  54. AGoldhamster

    Gary … thanks for you help. BUT you don’t know the way I trade.

    I’m up around 730% since October 1st when I started “counting the chips” for those reading my posts at kitco and in my blog.

    These gains are not possible with common trading.
    So yes I use leverage. Usually 1x thru 12x.

    with a leveraged account you have to be VERY VERY fast in taking your profits. Because these profits can vanish within minutes.
    Last time – last Thursday with that after pits close selloff in silver.

    Additionally you sould knwo that i’m in the metals Gold (in Euros) below 300. And bought my first silver below 7$ which I still own.

    Also you should know – that I’m an all in guy – since these early 200x I have always had almost everything liquid in physical.
    And I only sold once part of my company gold (yearend customizing) – and even taht was an error.

    So in other words – I’m ultra mega long the physical since years.
    Think of always in between 75% and 90%. Most recently in January bought another 4 digit number of Silver Phillies.

    And additionally this leveraged account. Which I (usually) know very well to protect. As I’m out on the slightest hint of troubles. Aka more or less a daytrading account although I sometimes hold positions for a couple of days.
    Or in fact even months or over a year – but that is another tax related story.
    Anyway I’m often fast in – as wel las fast out.

    Nevertheless I agree with you 100% for the average trader not to use leverage.

    And again for the outlook and important time frames – milestones June (when most markets will peak) – and end of this year (when Gold and Silver will peak).
    These dates are only important for the physical core. To start heding the first time since I bougth this stuff.

  55. Ian

    Gary,

    I think you mentioned a couple of days ago that you and John Townsend jointly authored the articles on the Gold Scents site.

    I was just wondering if John has any input into your Premium reports.

    Thanks.

  56. AGoldhamster

    Nevertheless Gary – again thanks for the well meant advice.
    And yes I’m WELL aware of the excellent mediumterm outlook.

    BTW still havn’t found the time to dig thru the protected area of your site. As I’m also busy in a 100% daytime IT job.

  57. $$$

    I am sitting on some Jun 33 SLW calls. I was thinking of cashing them in this week and picking up jun 50 calls hoping for a little more pin action.

    Razvan I may reconsider and just sit tight.

    Thanks

  64. Silverman

    Gary,
    I suspect Beanie somehow uses the information you provide him, on his own (outrageously overpriced) pay site. This is the first time I’ve seen him admit that Silver might continue to go up. Don’t educate him too much 🙂

  65. ALEX

    Gary

    When you stated that you and John Townsend jointly authored the articles on the Gold Scents site, it was a bit insightful as to (POSSIBLY)why you , on this blog, try to encourage buy and hold through cycles and not to be trading.

    I check his sight from time to time , and he is sharp/ and sometimes nails a trade…but he also buys a good looking pattern one day ( and I agree with his analysis )and then he sells for a loss of pennies the next day, only to have that stock rocket up soon after . He’s a short term / daytrader for sure.

    Maybe you think we’re all like that ? 🙂

    When you called a top in Nov , I traded and posted here a lot, to try to help some of your ‘traders’ get some short term ideas , and I got some from them too( ButI felt like that frustrated you -to see people buying when you went cash/core). So I started adding to my post ..” No recommendation , just an observation , but I bought at (?)” – so any newbies wouldnt get hurt.

    I do think most on here are very sharp and have their own methods , adding cycles and holding positions when Prudent. Even I’ve been ‘in’ P.M.’s 100% since Jan 25th…and only have sold a position to buy another set up in P.M.’s.

    I guess what I’m saying is maybe I see why you are so adamant about over trading , and yes, I know you’re leary of ind. juniors.

    With that in mind…AXU’s chart looks just like EXK’s did a week ago…and EXK took off. It also looks like GPL chart before it went from $3 to #4.75 — No recommendation, all stocks have risk 😉

    sorry for such a lengthy post guys

  66. Silverman

    Alex,

    I am pretty heavily invested in AGQ and SLW at this point and I hesitate to go higher there. I still have some cash left, and for me, investing a small amount in promising juniors is a reasonable play for me. So thanks again for sharing your ideas there.

  67. Avann

    Alex … thanks for the posts … keep em coming.
    Whenever you make a non-recommendation I always look for the company on the Canadian side … if it’s there and the timing is right I will buy a little.
    AXU=AXR in Canada.

  68. Beanie

    Shalom,

    You mean like Gary should put in shorts on the equities market if he’s so sure it’s gonna go down? 🙂

    Btw, the equities market will continue higher regardless what the bears and precious metals lovers say. And that makes investing in silver even less prudent.

  69. Beanie

    Silverman,

    I have recommended my people not to get involved with precious metals, and that if they are itching to participate, they may want to put a small amount of cash and long something like GPL as a hedge to their portfolios.

  70. Slumdog

    Hammy’s call early this morning:
    “Expecting silver to peak either today or (more likely) tomorrow. Possibly around 37.”

    You rock!

  71. Gary

    Clark,
    Unfortunately I still don’t have a working crystal ball. You either have to add and quit worrying about it or you wait but have a plan to add if the correction doesn’t materialize.

  72. Gary

    Alex,
    John trades off his TSI indicator. Like any oscillator it’s going to deliver a ton of whipsaws. The faster you program the parameters the more whipsaws.

    It’s just not a method I want to try or one that I think is suitable for most people to make big money.

    With that kind of day trading regimen position size will need to be very conservative. One is never going to get rich by trying to pick up nickels and dimes. I would rather just make a large bet on a secular bull market and then sit still and let the bull do his thing.

  73. Shalom Bernanke

    Beano,

    Don’t come here and put words in Gary’s mouth. He has not once said he thinks stocks are a short (yet), and in fact, that is an upcoming idea to possibly trade (with smaller positions also).

    And I’m sure nobody here is surprised that you recommended GPL, with the hindsight of a 170% gain. Yeah, you were all over that as I recall. LOL!

  74. Gary

    Beanie,
    I will short the market when the time is right. One has to wait for the three year cycle in the dollar to bottom.

    BTW you were flat out wrong about gold and oil going down and the stock market going higher.

    I was and will continue to be right that inflation will pressure stocks because profit margins will continue to get squeezed and discretionary spending is starting to suffer due to high gas prices.

    Your perma bull mind set is going to cause you to ride the next bear market all the way down just like you did the last one, which BTW I had warned you repeatedly was coming. You were convinced this time is different. It wasn’t.

    It won’t be this time either.

  75. Bob loves Hawaii

    There seems to be a disconnect between SLV and silver future, in terms of percentage gain. I have silver up 3.2% and SLV only up 2.48%. am I reading something wrong here?

  76. ALEX

    Silverman

    Thanks- I think this is a great blog and everyone helps everyone else ( except for 2 on here, but we play them contrarian-hehe )and Gary is the voice of reason as well as having a great reasonable longer term plam for great gains on the metals cycles.

    I just personally look at one that may be ready for a minor pullback or sideways move after a great run… and one that is breaking out with a great chart pattern , and decide if I want to swap over. It seriously worked out very well Aug to Nov. As for in a parabolic move…they all get very extended and work great!

    AVANN

    That made me laugh. I actually looked at CA:AXR on bigcharts for the Canadian version…it looks like you can buy it on that charts price- where I bought more last wk, right at the point of break out 🙂 It broke out here last week with increasing volume- “no recommendation’ 😉

    best wishes and Thx also

  77. Gary

    Clark,
    Unfortunately I still don’t have a working crystal ball. You either have to add and quit worrying about it or you wait but have a plan to add if the correction doesn’t materialize.

  78. Brian

    MVG looks likely to break out of a 10 week base soon at 13.10. GORO is the same at 30.00. ANV is likely to pop out of the flag, but if nobody liked it at 29 it would be a trade. UXG same type of base as above, and the previously mentioned in another thread SSRI.

  79. Gary

    Instead of trying to guess at a time or price that silver will correct from one will probably have better results if they watch the dollar for a bounce off the November support level.

  83. jeff

    Clark
    Last July I was chasing gold for the whole leg up. Get in your head what a pullback will look like and then look at where we are going. By the way, I’m just learning not to play so much defense myself

  84. ALEX

    Gary

    Yeah, the TSI indicator doesnt work for me, when I’ve followed his posts. I use my own methods-but I definitely traded quicker (each stock about every 2-4 wks,sell, and rebuy lower)before I found your cycle work. Now I can hold position for months if I want, with added confidence.

    I used fibonacci projections and volume analysis most strongly , not stochastics,trendlines, macd, or RSI short term as much ,but your cycle analysis really gives you confidence in ‘timing the trade’. You have confiedance to ride puyllbacks. It doesnt seem necessary to sell a great stock that is acting correctly just because its getting bought up

    ( Like AGQ…which is over 100% over its 200sma , and I would have sold it on the gap open today and looked for a pullback on the gap today. Now I will ride it. with confidence.

    Thanks for THAT

  86. Beanie

    Gary,

    Don’t be silly, money is not leaving the equities market for precious metals. It doesn’t take a lot to move up precious metals since they are thinly traded.

    I have been correct about this bull market since April 09. And there is still much more upside. Even you did not believe we would be this high, as you have made several posts now that the equities plunge has started. It was supposed to have started last year, as several of your posts indicates.

    When you call for demise of equities in those posts (that seem to indicate the precise timing), you are essentially shorting them at that time (if you’re inclined to short, as several of your readers have done –with some of them complaining about getting hit in the head by the bulls). I’m wrong about the silver pulling back last week, I can admit that. But you don’t seem to want to admit anything about your wrong timing of stock market plunges.

    Btw, Shalom, I brought to the attention of GPL to my people at $3.

  87. TZ(5288)

    GARY,

    May I suggest you stop responding to Beanie. (Or block him from posting).

    He is not here to offer constructive input.

    His goal is to repeatedly post contrary and radical opinions and then feed off the response. It’s a psychological defect – not a benefit to the board.

    For some reason you feel it necessary to be nice and repeatedly respond to him like a petulant child. I don’t know why.

    Think it over unless you see some benefit I don’t to other people reading.

  91. Steve

    I agree with TZ. When the Dow moves above 30000, then by all means, Beanie should be able to come back and tell us all that he said so.

  92. Shalom Bernanke

    “Btw, Shalom, I brought to the attention of GPL to my people at $3.”- Beano

    Do “your people” know you spend your time at Gary’s? And as far as GPL, you got the idea from posters here and around double the price they paid! 🙂

  93. ALEX

    SB

    You’re quick…your replies to Beano are sharp and accurate ( GPL and the 170% hindsight). No wonder you are the Fed Chairman!!

    Just practicing on him until you face congress again?? 🙂

  94. Gary

    TZ,
    I know I should just ignore him but sometimes even I enjoy telling Beanie “I told you so”.

    I enjoyed it this morning when oil and gold were up and I thoroughly enjoyed it during the last bear market.

    I will certainly relish saying I told you so when the next bear market begins.

    I suppose it’s a defect I need to work on. 🙂

  96. TZ(5288)

    GARY,

    May I further the comment to you from a business angle…

    You have already stated a goal of your subscribers which also would follow to POSSIBLE subscribers who are on the fence and might join up.

    That goal is to CALMLY try to get them in this bull market, HOLD, and succeed in getting wealthly.

    I will suggest to you that having a person who does little more than repeatedly jab your calls and entire trading approach, over, and over, and OVER does the exact opposite of your goals.

    Beanie and your continued interaction which feeds his need to engage in his behavior probably does more harm to those who are already having trouble sitting and holding.

    I guess you could make an opposite argument that he voices doubts that people will hear from other places and that gives you the chance to (repeatly) address them, but I’m not so sure that is valid or usefull.

    I think you may be hurting things and you should take a fresh look at it. If you don’t respond, block him, or just remove his posts for a few days in a row he might get the message. Reasoning won’t work and I’m amazed you haven’t gotten that or continue to try.

  97. Ollie

    Alex, I’m sitting on some nice profits in EXK and thinking about selling it to lock in gains as it starts to look parabolic…what do you think? Is it too early to sell?
    Thanks

  98. ALEX

    Brian

    I was watching MVG too ( I just havent liked its thinly traded volume as much, it was trading only 100,000 /day) but it looks ready to go. Along with SVM and ssri and so on…its getting harder to find an ugly chart 🙂

    And I’ve read previous posts, you seem to look at the same minors as I do (at the same time…did we go to school together?? haha). Producers with $$ over exploration for safety w/me.

  99. Beanie

    For real, shalom, I don’t get my stock picks here that’s for sure…as I only read some comments intermittently. I’m on my “7th killer stock” now, and GPL and SLW aren’t on my list, sorry to disappoint. 🙂

  100. Bob loves Hawaii

    Ollie, Endeavor just received permission to list on the big board. That will bring a lot of fresh buying interest to the company.

    However, I agree on a rest, as it hit the IHS measured move. I hold 25 April contracts on top of my position in it, and will scale those out.

  102. TZ(5288)

    >I know I should just ignore him but sometimes even I enjoy telling Beanie “I told you so”.

    He doesn’t **CARE**.

    His psychological defect is simply the need to throw a jab and get a RESPONSE.

    It is only the response that matters. NOT the content.

    But those responses are only retrieved by him continually bashing what you are trying to do for others. If he can’t get a response, he will escallate until he does.

    He won’t shake me or Shalom or DG or others, but he WILL shake plenty of new people or people without the trading stamina.

    Is that beneficial to you and the service?

    You will still get plenty of contrary opinions from many of us like you have been, but they will be reasoned out, “we could be wrong” stuff, that is normal in the markets. It won’t be “Gary sucks and is always wrong.”

    Think it over from a business perspective. Why do you want new people or fence sitters reading that? They will already have enough doubts from almost any media source. Why add here?

  104. ALEX

    OLLIE

    I own (EXK) and it has further upside. It also depends on your trading plan, because after a quick pullback, this could do very well on its next leg up, since some ‘fund’ managers only buy stocks priced over $10.00.

    Let me check something and write a tad more in a few

  105. Avann

    Either Beanie has to be banned or you must respond to him. He’s like MLMT … if you do not destroy his argument some of the inexperienced/new subs may take him seriously …

  106. Gary

    Blogger doesn’t let me ban posters. Plus I wouldn’t do that anyway. As long as people are civil they can post whatever they like.

  107. Beanie

    TZ,

    Many at the Atilladons and Skislopers said exactly the same thing you said about me…. and eventually the market proved me right.

    When you have groupthink that favors what they want to favor, they will start to be less rational and reject any opinion that they observe as threat to the groupthink.

    The truth is, buying just about anything has made money for any bull, because the bernanke wants the market higher. As simple as that.

    I just bring the attention that precious metals are more overvalued than the internets of 1999 and cannot be sustained. How does SLW continue to produce any more silver to justify a P/E of 72? If it could produce that much silver, that means silver can’t be rare!

  109. Shalom Bernanke

    Good points, TZ, and Beano just admitted he doesn’t even read what others say here. He just comes here to pump and dump his semiconductor stocks and attempt to derail new readers.

  110. Brian

    BLH and Ollie, A contrary opinion would be that on a weekly chart I see EXK being in a 3rd wave of a 3rd wave. The most powerful out there. Regardless of that it is levered to silver, so we would need a correction in silver to stop what is in motion. I will hold. I hold the stock and have May 5 options bought in Jan.

  112. Gary

    Beanie,
    Saying precious metals are overvalued is a nonsensical statement.

    How can one determine value other than letting the free market set the price?

    These aren’t companies with earnings. These are commodities driven by supply and demand fundamentals. One of the main drivers is the debasement of the currency.

    Until Ben stops destroying the currency there is no correct price for gold or silver. Gold could go to $10,000 and still be extremely undervalued because the money supply was expanding at an even faster pace.

    I swear some of the things you come up with are just ridiculous.

  114. TZ(5288)

    I will say that beanie’s post at 10:42 this morning was more in-depth than usual and actually gave some reasoning on silver and it’s recent action. That isn’t bad, but that hasn’t been the ongoing pattern that I see.

    Also, a great many of his posts seem to hinge on the singular inability to understand the difference between a chart of the $SPX and the same chart divided by $GOLD – thus showing stocks in REAL value, which continues to DECLINE over the last decade.

    That things like this are pointed out to him doesn’t seem to matter. He just restates them a few days later in the same POST-RESPONSE cycle with some casual “metals are no good” thrown in.

    Just my opinions for consideration.

  115. ALEX

    BRIAN / OLLIE

    Brian, I was doing the same thing…EXK on a weekly chart is looking very strong. I have several price projections ( the first one -a minor one for this, is being met today). Other projections show $12.16 area and $12.74 on this move.

    I wouldnt profit take, unless I was going straight into a newer breaking out stock.

    Mine I am holding.

  117. DG

    Gary: Beanie has proven that he is no better at keeping his word than he is at knowing how to in vest in markets. He said he’d be gone for two years, and that lasted a week. He has a psychological problem and needs attention. For the first time ever, I am recommending that someone be blocked from a blog. I agree his constant whining may harm others and loyalty should be to them not this whacko.

  118. ALEX

    Ollie

    I meant to add that after those price targets get net , a pullback may occur, but the next leg up could be a real parabolic one, before the D-Wave. You know, it could pull back to say $9 to $10ish (or even go sideways a bit -sellers vs. fund accumulators)and then double.

    BUT ,if to days price target is met and it then pulls back and the dollar bounces, we may move down to $8 break out area. And you will hate us for not saying sell 🙂

  119. TZ(5288)

    Pretty good signs this morning, I think, that a short term top might be in for a week or so on the metals.

    Gap opens and possibly some capitulation buying on stuff.

    It’s no guarantee by far, but my inclination would be more to sell than to buy anything this morning.

    I will be simply HOLDING however. I’m just voicing some thoughts after the long run we have had.

  120. ALEX

    sorry , typo

    after those targets are MET ( not net)

    I am going to breakfast , Ride that Bull guys 🙂 Jump in Beanie, on the next pullback/sideays move.

    Safe travels DG ( you must be at the airport 🙂

  122. vuvvy

    My system will go to a sell at 1408 today if things get out of hand,but I don’t expect that.The stop should keep rising in the days ahead and eventually go to a sell.The average winning long trade is about 28 days and we are on day 21.In early IT upmoves the sells usually mark bottoming areas.

  123. ALEX

    AXU

    Huge volume for it in the first 15 minutes of trade. Solid break out.

    HMM, Ollie ,

    sell 1/2 EXK & jump into AXU?
    Back into EXK in 2 wks??
    Back into AXU as it passes $10.00??

    J/K- Sorry thinking out loud 🙂

  124. Beanie

    Gary,

    What you’re saying sure sounds a lot like what they were saying about internet stocks back in 1999. What valuations? Internets were entering a new era!
    🙂

    Seriously though, nothing can justify the stratospheric valuation of SLW. Silver and gold prices aren’t going to stay high for many many years. Because that’s what P/E of SLW is telling us…that precious metal prices are gonna stay high.

    And even if silver prices go to $100 and stay there permanently, where is SLW going to find any more silver?

    There is a few funds that are basically cornering the silver market by buying up the silver. The mechanics aren’t that much different than what the Hunt Brothers did. Whatever little is left is bid up by retail.

    It’s all a “musical chair” play, if you ask me.

  125. pimaCanyon

    TZ,

    I think you could be wrong about Gary responding to Beanie, that that might turn potential buyers of his service away. I believe it actually works the other way, that his responses to Beanie could be helping to convince non-subs to subscribe.

    For one thing, if somebody new showed up here and read some of Beanie’s posts, they could get misinformation about Gary’s calls on the markets. So I think it’s important that Gary clear up Beanie’s misinformation of the day. Moreover, the way Gary responds says a lot about who he is as a person, and and how he does not let unfounded and false criticism get to him, how he just responds with the facts and doesn’t resort to name calling or other immature behavior.

    So I think Gary’s responses to Beanie are actually helping to increase his sub base rather than working against him as you believe.

    (OTOH, I too would prefer to not have Beanie coming around and spewing his venom, would make for a more pleasant perusing of these comments. But let’s just see where we are a year from now and who comes around then… 🙂

  126. Ollie

    thanks alex, I sold some, the profit I’ve made in EXK SVM and SLW has helped to balance the small loss in my HL

    So I’m out at BE, silver looks to be at a short term top in my view so it gives me a chance to rebalace my portfolio

    I just hope the bull gives me a buying opp in the near term!

  128. Gary

    (Sigh)
    Internet stocks were companies with no earnings. No earnings and no possibility of earnings equals overvaluation.

    Continual debasement of the currency equals no foreseeable top in metals until we get a Fed president with a little bit of commonsense.

  129. vuvvy

    Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is the definition of insanity. I suspect Beanie/MLMT are probably posting from some low security institution, and should subsequently be ignored:)

  131. pimaCanyon

    vuvvy, I was referring to the update on your system, the 1408 sell (which has marked bottoms in this phase of IT upmoves in gold in the past).

    🙂

  132. Ohio Rob

    Beano,

    While we have your attention, can you give us some insight on what’s included in your $400 blog manual? For that amount one could follow Gary for almost 3 years…

  133. pvm999

    > For real, shalom, I don’t get my stock picks here that’s for sure…as I only read some comments intermittently. I’m on my “7th killer stock” now, and GPL and SLW aren’t on my list, sorry to disappoint. 🙂 <

    So I finally checked his site. One of his recent “killer” stocks was TGT.

    hey Beainie, how’s that one working for you?

    Maybe you should get your stock picks from here –LMAO!

  134. funmike

    “Either Beanie has to be banned or you must respond to him. He’s like MLMT … if you do not destroy his argument some of the inexperienced/new subs may take him seriously …”

    I am relatively inexperienced but have been following some financial blogs since I got started in 2006. Following Gary’s advice is the first time any of them have been worth the price of admission. Why would I be dissuaded by a few contrary posts? I think it is good for establishing conviction. Eg. If I can be that easily dissauded then I probably shouldn’t be in.

  137. Beanie

    Gary,

    Youre obviously not good with the equities market.

    Though internets have no earnings, many thought since they were new it was just temporary. After all, everybody will eventually use the internet. So they had perceived future potential…and that eventually the earnings will come and when they come they would be permanent…they would be like what Amazon would be today.

    The question is, where is SLW gonna find more silver in the future to justify it’s current p/e? Well, simple. It can’t. Hence, no future potential. Hence, more overvalued than internets of 1999.

  138. DG

    Nike: If you took the FXP buy you are now ahead. Never wait to “see if it is working.” Rubber band plays need to be done at maximum tension. Same plan: get ahead and then put in a break even stop. Doing this means you win or break even…always a good bet to take. I cut my losers short and can’t give you san algorithm for that as it’s by feel, but I will post if I know someone took a trade I ssuggested. I’ve only had one loser (UNG) for some time now so maybe that’ll keep up (don’t count on it) 😉

  139. Diane

    Gary,

    Since, Silver has gone up so drastically in the past week, can you please let us know where our stops should be set?

    You’re wonderful Gary!!

  141. TommyD

    Gary,

    Is it ok of I show Beanie the stretching room?

    He keeps talking about lifting things up and he puts them down…

  142. Gary

    Beanie,
    You obviously have no clue as to SLW’s business model.

    SLW has already purchased silver production at a contracted rate. Much of it under $10. Their input costs never change as they aren’t actually a miner.

    So for every dollar silver rises SLW’s profit margins expand exponentially.

    SLW is quite possibly one of the top ten companies on the planet.

    Maybe you should check the facts next time before you say something ridiculous 🙂

  147. Haggerty

    I’m playing with 3k and have been in and out of SLW options going to wait for a big drop to somewhat close to the 10 day moving average and then jump on an april option at or near the strike price. Hoping to get a 50% move the next couple of days after.

  148. David Kafrick

    As much as I despise Beanie, there is no point in charting equities against silver or gold, instead of dollars and saying that silver and gold represent “real” something… If equities have gone up more than inflation than that is the measure you should use, not against a specific commodity. I could chart gold against cotton for the past 6 months and say that gold sucks because even though it has gone up in dollars, it is down against cotton (a “real” measure of value).

    All of this makes no sense, all assets (except the top performing one) will have underperformed against some other asset, which doesn´t mean it was a bad investment.

    If by investing in stocks, or any other asset, you have increased your purchasing power, than that´s all that matters.

  149. Shalom Bernanke

    Although ANV worked for me, I sold it this morning to use the proceeds in some of the better names (SVM, EXK, and maybe NGD) I own.

    Didn’t buy the new shares yet, but will put it to work in the cycle low.

    Plus, I don’t own everybody’s fav, AGQ, so might go with that or futures.

  155. Romeo Bravo

    People who say they are going away for two years and then come right back and post dozens of times are psychos. So if this is what you can infer from his “promises” let me tell you what to think of those “riches” he promises.

    Oh yeah, once again, mangy ugly dog on back on urine soaked couch or aggressive fit climber climbing straight up. Follow who you want!

  160. Leo

    Beanie,
    A man, arguably as bright as you are, warned the markets in 1996 of “irrational exuberance”. Eventually he was proven right but not until NASDAQ tacked on 400% worth of gains.

    From a bean-counting point of view you might be correct about SLW but from the psychological point of view you might be years off.

    It was people like you who convinced me in the 90’s not to go all in into the market. I did make some money in that boom but it was a pittance compared to what I could have made if I ignored the “expert” advice.

    Since I started following Gary I am up over 200%, 50% YTD. What’s your track record?

  168. michael

    New poster here. Regarding Beanie, I think there’s far too much talk about him and far too many useless comments about him. It degrades the board. Just skip his posts, skip any posts (inc. Gary’s) that reference Beanie, and don’t reference him in any of your posts. Your constant chattering about Beanie is useless, annoying, and degrades the board. Sorry, but let the board move on.

  172. Gary

    In theory we should get a correction soon as the daily cycle is now deep in the timing band. But as all corrections in real time appear to be worse than they are almost no one will be able to buy into it.

    Most of the people waiting for a pullback to add won’t be able to pull the trigger. This is how the bull keeps as many riders off as possible.

  175. Poly

    I doubt that’s “the pullback”! Still up for the day and at new daily high’s. A good drop to $34.50 would be nice.

  177. Movax

    I am hoping ’cause I just bought more 30 seconds after that post, plus 35.50 ish is the trend line from the fall rally.

    (We just climbed back above it.)

    Hopefully the market thinks that is important.

  178. coolkevs

    From Kevin Depew at Minyanville:
    DXY has recorded a Weekly Buy Setup last week, so 1-4 weeks of dollar “strength” can be expected carrying us into April. However, there is a downside DAILY and WEEKLY target at 74.90 that will continue to weigh on the dollar. We will probably get one more bounce out of this with that uptrend line the dollar bulls have been showing, or if not the lateral support at 75.63, but the bounce will be weak, continuing down to 74.90, and down to the 72.5 level where I will become a raving mad lunatic dollar bull 🙂

    SPX is in a WEEKLY sell signal, good into May. Needs a bearish price flip, though. If it closes below 1327.30, then this confirms the general market is in sell mode in DeMark terms.

  180. Gary

    You can probably toss the trend lines in the trash for the time being. They aren’t going to work during this kind of move.

    I hope you wouldn’t freak out and sell for a loss just because you didn’t time an entry perfectly. This C-wave should have a long way to go yet. There’s no call to take meaningless losses, especially when you are on the right side of the trade.

  181. Movax

    I am not worried Gary, I just bought a small amount of GPR.TO
    Even is silver tanks it’s a small enough amount it’s not a big deal, just trying to get the best price.

  182. Gary

    Still too early for the intermediate dollar cycle to bottom. It’s now in the grip of the three year cycle decline. Nothing else matters.

    The last confirmation will be a break of the intermediate and yearly cycle low at 75.63.

    Once that happens all hell should start to break loose as the world panics out of dollars.

    I do expect a dead cat bounce off the November pivot though.

  185. MrMiyagi

    Gary, I must have missed it somewhere in this Everest of information, what do you think would be tops for an once of silver?

  186. David

    Beanie scurried off the last time when Gary told him to put his money where his mouth is by making a bet.

    Perhaps we should take up that bet again. We could probably find a way to place the funds in escrow so that Beanie can’t welsh on it.

    As tiresome as I find Beanie and his financial learning disability, he serves the greater good by enabling Gary (and others) to engage in a Socratic dialogue. This enables newcomers to learn basic concepts like “secular bull/bear” that Beanie is unable to grasp. I doubt that he’s scaring anybody into doing anything, especially paying $400 for his stock picks.

    Nonetheless, I will go in on any bet with Beanie that Gary cares to make. What do you say, Beanie?

  187. Vonda

    Leo, I pulled on that shallow dip. I mostly used it as an excuse to switch over to more AGQ as SLW is annoying me. But now I find it difficult to let the latter go. Am over-leveraged, for the day only, and will close out part of one or the other by day’s end.

  188. Vonda

    Romeo,

    Maybe go a little easy on Beanie’s pooch? It’s not as if a dog gets to choose his/her person . . .

    My fav nightly report ever from Gary signed off with: “Rescue a dog!”

  190. MyLifeisLame

    Ah ha! I told you chumps massive pain was coming. Covered all my shorts Friday before the close, reshorted everything first this morning, up nicely of course. I rule.

    Volume breaking down, we are heading towards 5 dollar silver. Volume analysis says it will, I know because the crystal ball in my mom’s basement has been awesome at calling these things. We will never see gold at 1440 or 36 silver.

    Ever.

    Again.

  192. jeff

    Gary

    Will you comment on the dollar bounce?
    A weak bounce lasting as long as our gold daily cycle I suppose?

  193. Gary

    Cramer has been on TV calling for higher gold for months and months. He’s been right on.

    For some reason people have gotten the idea that just because something gets mentioned on TV that means the top is in. More often than not it just means it’s the middle of a strong move.

  198. Razvan

    lol @MLIS love it

    Leo,
    I wish i could buy more but i am already maxed out as it is and some nights i have trouble sleeping.

    Can i borrow 200k from you?? ill pay you back in 2 months with 25%interest.Help out a fellow SMTer! 😉

  200. Beanie

    I now kind of understand what it must’ve been like during the Tulipmania. The reasons for owning and bidding up tulips must have been so overwhelmingly logical and convincing as are those for precious metals. I mean, they have the smartest of the smarts that were buying tulips. Price was not an issue. P/E was not an issue. The fact that silver companies can NEVER produce the silver amounts that their current p/e’s indicate that they could produce… doesn’t matter. Just buy gold and silver just because the government is printing money. It doesn’t matter that the government have always printed money in our 200 year history.

    Keep buying it up, gold and silver that is. How much more logic does one need? 1+1 is 2, after all. Jim Rogers says it’s good, it must therefore be. The supply is low, hence the sky is the limit. That’s all that matters. $50, $100, $200, $500? No problem. Still cheap, say the silverbugs.

    But reality is, nobody invests in silver, other than Robert Kiosaki and the few end-of-times crowd. Everybody is just waiting to dump on the last remaining entrants. Nothing wrong with that, of course. But it is what it is…a long-winded trade.

  204. DG

    MyLife Is Lame—what a great photo!

    A word regarding sentiment: Just because there are more bulls than bears does not mean we have to go down. Think about it: in order to get to 85% bulls you have to get to 75% bulls first, so 75% bulls is either ” too many” or just a stop on the way to a higher number. Just like charts, you can’t use one item in isolation. Different technical indicators mean different things and have different parameters depending on where you are in the asset’s trading cycle. That’s what makes it hard. If you just sold every time there were X number of bulls everyone would be rich by now.

  208. jc

    Great Panther Silver announces increase in mineral resources at Topia Mine
    Great Panther Silver announced that Roscoe Postle Associates has delivered an update to the ongoing mineral resource development at the Company’s 100% owned Topia Silver Gold-Lead-Zinc Mine in Durango, Mexico. The 2011 RPA mineral resource estimates 171,000 tonnes at 864g/t silver, 1.56g/t gold, 7.53% lead and 4.37% zinc, a 36.3% increase over the 2009 resource estimate. In addition, RPA estimates 285,000 tonnes of 868g/t silver, 1.5g/t gold, 6.5% lead and 3.7% zinc in the Inferred category, a 109.3% increase over the previous estimate. :theflyo

  209. Jayhawk

    Yep, Tim shows a chart of GDX collapsing. Seriously…What is wrong with that guy?

    I told you Alex about KOG and the TK kiss of death. I had some too, but thing was looking sick so I dumped it.

  215. Poly

    Speaking of “RECOGNITION STAGE”, take a look at the SLV volume for today. An outrageous 42m shares traded by 1.30pm. That’s more than the weekly volume up to a few weeks ago!

  216. Douglas

    Exerpt from an article SLW by Dr Duru from Seeking Alpha today.
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/256675-silver-wheaton-ceo-not-thinking-about-hedging-silver-until-50?source=email_watchlist

    Moreover, SLW presented a very compelling case for its shares over SLV in a corporate presentation released on Wednesday. Whereas both SLV and SLW give investors a concentrated exposure to silver, SLW provides five other benefits that SLV lacks (see slide #7):

    Better Leverage to Silver Price
    Exploration Upside
    Expansion Upside
    Acquisition Growth Potential
    Dividend Yield
    Note that SLW just announced an inaugural dividend of 3 cents per share.

    Here are some highlights from the interview with Barnes:

    90% of revenues from silver, 10% from gold.
    Prices never go straight up…in a cyclical business, but in 3-5 years, and probably longer, silver prices will be extremely high.
    Investment demand, not industrial demand, has driven silver prices for the past several years.
    China was a net exporter of silver 5 years ago, about 100M ounces. In 2010, China was a net importer by more than 100M ounces.
    The overall market for silver is only 700-800M ounces.
    It is difficult to get any more bullish….

  218. Techperson

    Beanie – the guilder was not collapsing during tulipmania.
    Think of it this way – gong long gold is another way to short the dollar.
    How low can the dollar go? If they really fuck it up, it can go to zero.
    Therefore, how high can gold go? It can go to infinity, in theory, in dollar terms.
    If China backs the yuan with gold and the U.S. has to respond, where do we need the price of gold to be to back the currency 100%?
    $13,000 and ounce.
    But where would they set it? Probably around $20,000 an ounce in order to avoid a run on Fort Knox.
    Have a nice day.

  221. pimaCanyon

    I wouldn’t use AGQ for any kind of charting, including gap fill. I’d use SLV. Or silver spot or silver futures.

    But I wonder about gap theory in general when it comes to PM’s because they are essentially traded around the clock. I’m not so sure you can use gap theory from the stock market and apply it to PM etf’s successfully.

  223. pimaCanyon

    GLD and SLV showing up on SoS list today. In fact, SLV is at the TOP of the list!

    Numbers on GLD are small, but SLV number is respectable. Maybe we’re seeing the daily cycle high?

    One thing that’s nice to see (so as not to get too worried) is that the Block Trades numbers are much lower than the Total Money Flow numbers. To me that would indicate that big money (who would make the block trades) is not selling as much as the Total Money Flow number would indicate.

  225. New York

    Gary,

    At this point in the game does it make any sense to wait for a draw down if we’re not fully invested?

    Or is the likelihood greater that we will miss out altogether?

  226. Gary

    Well I don’t have a crystal ball but for what its worth I’m waiting to add the rest of my position until I see something that looks, at least vaguely, like a daily cycle low..

  227. alex

    As I am a sub of Garys service for a long time now, I stick to his plan but the folks at ZH have allways had very good market insights.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldcopper-ratio-surges-most-june-29

    So the selling of HF’s can become a big problem for all of us including the PM’s. As BTFD stoped working today one senses that the game has changed, the easy money has been made.
    And what wont help is that the nice candle in the silver chart printed today will for sure inspire an army of crayon chartist to go apeshit and call Doomsday on the PM’s.

    Personaly I hate HL today, well not just today it started last week but I sold some of it as it was my biggest position anyone else with the same problem here? Lets team up and open a facebook group against this feeble minded Management:)

    Now I need to sell something in panic…….
    PS: whats with that beanie guy all of you are bitchin about? Does he really has such a shit strane of a personality that he says he will leave for 2 years just to come back the next day talking his BS book all over again, why dont you Ban him? ‘Its a free internet isnt it.

  229. New York

    Ok, makes sense. Just wanted to make sure i’m not late to the party.

    Are we waiting for the 3rd confirmation on the dollar? What target should I be zooming in on?

    Thanks.

  230. Wes

    Poly,

    That was a nice sell this morning, but where do you plan to buy back, and what ?

    It seems that in moves like silver has made, overbought gets reset much higher. I’m looking at BB’s similar to what Hammy was showing last night. For these, we haven’t come close to overbought, yet.

    I’m aware you have time constraints on the options, though.

  231. DG

    I am going to short oil when gold tops out. Right now the commercial hedgers (smart money) have their largest short position in history, and the large speculators (dumb money) have their largest long position in history. Everyone “knows” the trouble in the Middle East will keep prices high, right? the last time everyone knew something was housing. The only thing keeping me from shorting a ton of it right now is Gary’s dollar-drop scenario. Gary, you are probably saving me a couple of false starts—thanks.

    See below from sentimentrader.com

    http://img822.imageshack.us/i/cotoil.png/

  233. Ollie

    wmp,you’ve asked about the drop in HL today. I don’t know the reasons other than HL has shown relative weakness vs the stronger miners like EXK SVM etc so there will be more selling pressure in the stock for the time being

    They have an ongoing legal issue which also weighs down on the price

    Unfortunately HL was the bulk of my holdings but now I’m out at BE (bought too early in Jan)

    Gary is right about owning SLV, AGQ SIL etc as there’s no company specific risk you need to worry about…

  234. rtshort1

    alex,

    HL has literally kept my entire portfolio flat for the last two weeks. It was my best performer last fall, and I made a killing with its options. It’s a laggard right now, and I for one am too timid to keep playing it on the long side. Still have some underwater options, but my capital is principally in AGQ, SLW, and a gold miner of choice that’s breaking out (SA).

    Let HL management rot. Their CEO/CFO team have absolutely no clue as to how to release critical news. No one is touching the thing until their (arguably insignificant) EPA settlement is finalized. By then, however, the C-wave may be over. I’d hate to be hanging on to HL waiting for a resolution, only to see one come down the pipeline in the middle of the D-wave.

  235. Poly

    Thanks Wes.

    This was just the “lottery” spec money purchased at $0.14 and the only March/April’s “on book” that needed to be offloaded.

    I’m essentially more than 100% invested. (Cash 25%, BUT 75% call options, all July’s, puts me way over 100%) and like most going to ride to the top or get stopped out much lower.

    If we get the drop I’m looking for (5-6% drop), I will immediately pull the trigger and buy barely ITM April SLV calls.
    I will also make another 100 option lottery bet on Apr SLV $40 calls, these should get slaughtered on any decent drop.

    Anything you looking at?

  236. Otis

    I don’t have access to DX charts right now, but noticed UUP tested its Nov lows today. Did the dollar actually test it’s Nov low too?

  237. Shalom Bernanke

    It seems like the last two weeks the S&P is forming that long awaited top many have been looking for. It’s taken awhile and I’m not putting money on the short side just yet, but stocks are looking exhausted.

    It’d be great to have the market hold on until we cash out of this C-wave, then short ES’s for a couple months.

  238. David

    An interesting phenomenon in the PM market.

    The XAU is still below its November highs. Gold has barely broken to new highs, and without much vigor.

    Yet silver is going batsh*t to the upside.

    Even the silver stocks, as measured by SIL, have been weak, with the exception of a handful of momentum names that we all know and love.

    It seems what’s happening is that the oil price is keeping a lid on all but the most speculative miners. As a result, ALL the hot money is moving into silver itself.

    This leads to an interesting question. Many would say that this is terrible breadth, suggesting that we may be later in the move than we all think.

    The alternate conclusion is that with nearly all hot PM money flowing directly into silver as opposed to the broader PM complex, we are in for a much bigger move than we expected.

  239. MyLifeisLame

    I’m now short /SI, /GC, GLD, SLV, AGQ, GDXJ, GDX, SIL, every single silver miner on the planet and on other planets, every gold miner on earth & Mars, short any stock you guys are in, using 10x leverage, have grandma’s accounts in the same positions, I’m in a 10x long dollar funds just launched by JPM–it’s going to the MOOOOOOOOOOOON. Get out while you can, be very afraid, this time I mean it…very scary out there. volume analysis, blah blah, going down big time, blah blah.

  242. Gary

    I have my doubts about a top in stocks just yet. I suspect a dollar bounce here will pressure oil back down a bit and stocks will rally as the oil weight is briefly lifted.

  243. DG

    ddn3f: Don’t know yet as my mind is on AGQ for now. I will post when I do it and what vehicle. I probably should put more focus on the vehicle I choose, but i usually think the point is to be there in size at the right time and have the guts and confidence to pull the trigger. That’s why I prepare mentally ahead of time (like the posting I just put up). I will post later, though, and hope Gary nails the dollar bottom.

  249. ALEX

    Jayhawk

    Oh I heard you loud and clear…I posted that I wanted to buy EXK pullback with Kog in short time so kept KOG for a bit more, but it did that large reversal day March 1?? and then went up on NO Volume,so I cut it and went into EXK right near the $8 breakout

    Thanks for the heads up..it really kept me focused 🙂

    And now we have 2 alex’s on the blog

  250. Wes

    Poly,

    Unless we get overbought in silver, I’m going to just keep holding. I have April DIM SLV’s that will need attention eventually, but I’ll at least wait out this option cycle so I can switch to May.

  251. DG

    Alex: unless the other Alex looks like you and posts a photo of himself dating your wife, your pic should let us tell who’s posting what. Or you could become Alex-J (for junior miners).

  257. ALEX

    DG

    are you talking to me??

    you dont understand, I visited the nieces this wkend , I am now a Minney-Phantom-Princess!! No one will recognize me!!

  258. blammo

    SB, I agree, if my holdings aren’t up more than 2-3% per day I feel like I am under performing!

    SLW: .13%
    SVM: 1.17%

    Dump those laggards!

    😉

  259. David

    Interesting how your expectations get ratcheted up.

    If EXK and GPL don’t break 10% every day, it feels like a crash.

  260. Gary

    Enjoy this while you can because after the A-wave has run it’s course we will probably go a year without making much of anything as the next C-wave consolidates this monster gain.

  261. AGoldhamster

    Again … I closed my positions in early europe session – and you saw what happened!

    This will continue.

    @MyLifeisLame … come on and do Hammy a favor and buy this f dip!

  262. David

    I am actually looking forward to a break from all this.

    Even upside volatility is stressful in its own way. I wouldn’t mind having a year away from paying close attention to the market.

  263. Gary

    Hammy,
    I can save you the trouble. Almost no one here is concerned with trying to catch short term wiggles or even daily cycle declines.

    Most have been burned multiple times with this strategy and learned their lesson.

    Once we get the move down into the daily cycle low (whenever it comes) we will add the last of our leverage. That’s what dips are for in powerful momentum runs, adding to positions, not trying to catch the wiggle.

  264. MyLifeisLame

    Hammy-

    No dip to be bought, we have been 100%+ long since Mid-Jan. Riding huge profits, so a day or 2 down not to worry.

    You sound like a day trader, which is fine. Different animal…

    Also, I used to track some of those threads on Kitco. Metalsking, Cyclists, etc. All wrong most of the time. Strange that so may over there fall all over themselves kissing their butts. Both were bearish miners in August/Sept and discouraged many from taking a position. Cyclist & Metalsking also pimping some crappy pink sheet natural gas play instead of going long miners which would then give holder a double or more coming out of August. All this on a gold and silver site. WTF? That place is pretty much worthless. Sorry bro.

  269. james r

    Hi San Diego,

    Welcome aboard.

    Hope your stay here will be very rewarding.

    Gary is one of the best when it comes to investing and guidance.

    As for investing you will get plenty of tips and recommendations.

    As for myself I stay away from individaul miners and invest in the high yielding AGQ and SIL.

    Good luck to you.

    James

  270. Vonda

    SB, yeah, portfolio only up 3% today – what a bum day!

    David, you sound so sane: “a year off.” I could use the month of May off to travel in Ireland (at the worst exchange rate ever). By then hopefully I’ll be off Silver and onto Green–for a while.

  271. ALEX

    SB and DAVID

    That is some weird psychology, but I agree. My EXK and GPL are up almost double digit % daily, so I look at AXU , great volume and still great chart…and feel disappointed its up only 3+ %.

    I have a feeling if thats the case , the pullbacks are going to hurt more than usual too.

    as SB said…” SPOILED” 🙂

    Maybe I should just look away

  273. AGoldhamster

    MLIL … absolutely right on different animal – like day and night.
    Those overleveraged though – will eventually have a tough time coming days.
    Those not – should have a latte in the meantime.

    Also right on those NG plays – and also right on Cyclist having been one month too late with his bottom in August.

    Though who cares if you have charts – to read?
    Those that don’t – not my problem.

    Worthless – only if you don’t read charts – and deal with predictions rather than probabilities.

  274. David

    Vonda,

    I don’t think I would want this level of intensity full-time. I’ll take advantage of it while it lasts, but I do find it’s taken up a lot more of my mental real estate than I’d like.

    When Gary says he expects the gold bull to last until 2017-18, I feel ambivalent. It seems like there’s an unbelievable amount of money to be made in the next six-seven years, but I don’t want to put money at the center of my life or my mind.

    I look forward putting my money into a nice index fund at the beginning of the secular bull in stocks and turning off the computer for 18 years.

  278. DG

    I just shorted some OIL (that’s the symbol) in the after-market. It popped up on my short screen and I think if it corrects gold probably will too. I don’t mind OIL as an independent play and if it hedges my PM’s a little, great. Can the $ and oil drop at the same time? You betcha. Some positive Middle East news ought to do it. We’ll see.

  279. Gary

    I was thinking a long trade on the CUBES or SPYDERS might be taken here in the after hours. I’ll explain in tonight’s report.

  280. Vonda

    I hear you, David. I’m trying to cultivate (and enjoy) the practice of occupying the threshold between due diligence and down time.

    5-6 more years of it does sound like a bit of a responsibility. I imagine that another season with Gary and I’ll have the confidence of one of the nappers and put in my wake-up call for the end of a run!

  281. kmisak

    A month or so back on this thread someone asked about JAG – wondering if it was worth it, since it seemed a ‘deal’. I and a few others dissuaded the sub (I hope!) and look at JAG today: sure ’nuff, 52 week low.

    That’s one thing I like about this blog. People are not full of hot air, and are willing to help out fellow subs.

    Techperson(?), I followed your advce re: PZG and so far, so good! Thanks.

    Yay us!

  283. Vonda

    This does seem to be a pretty nice blog, or rather a blog with pretty nice people. Reflection of its laid-back, kick-ass creator?

    It even has the humorous interlopers. (Are they paid ringers?)

  284. Jayhawk

    Seriously considering booking profits in EXK, AG, possibly SVM and moving that into AGQ. EXK up 50% since buying it, AG right up there too. I don’t want to be a pig, but those are some tasty profits. Like I said, I’d add it to something else here…or just do it with 1/2 the positions. Anyone have similar thoughts?

  285. DG

    Someone was asking about Stansberry. On of his top guys–Steve Sjug—has PZG as one of his two gold picks (the other is SA which he bought first at $3, I believe).

  288. Vonda

    Ha! You may be right about that, David. I remember adding “level of caustic remarks beginning to soar” mid-to-late January as a bottoming indicator.

  290. Gary

    Money man,
    That’s not how I would have counted the A-wave. But yes A-waves rarely make new highs and are probably directly proportional to how severe the D-wave is.

  291. kmisak

    Jayhawk, I have considered taking profit from WS and GPL and into HZU (the Canadian AGQ), but I already exchanged my laggards for HZU last month, and now have a lot of it.

    I think that this c-wave is going to see those sp’s continue to go up in the miners you mentioned; maybe way up, barring a mine flood or Mexican all-out drug war (wait a minute; that’s been going on now for quite some time already!), so I’m hanging on for the ride.

  292. Moneyman

    Oki..Thanks..

    For now I will just sit down and enjoy the C-wave..Amazing!

    Thanks for everthing gary..Not only for the good timing in PM but also how to trade the market..Halleluja!

    Gary..A man on a mission..Lol

    Take Care all!

  293. Moneyman

    Aha..I see..The A-wave was earlier in both years according to you?

    Closer to the D-wave down..Especially in 2006 you have a nice A-wave immediately after the D-wave..Dont know why they spot the A-wave so late..Almost a year later..

  294. MrMiyagi

    I keep wondering Gary, how much do world events throw cycles off kilter; I do realize that you’re not giving down-to-the-last-second timelines here.

  297. Slumdog

    Poly…
    you posted, “Poly said…

    Hamster. 3 day drop is all I see, big enough to cough up a lot though. But just don’t see how this doesn’t get to the $40’s.”

    What specifically did you see that shows you the probability of a 3 day drop?

    TIA

  299. Randy C

    Gary,
    Thank you for keeping us all on track. If the dollar does put in a bottom, how do you see it effecting the 10 year treasury ? For those of us who have exposure to the debt market, what is your suggestion. I have real issues with the B.S. Bernanke is laying on the bond holders. Every move he makes says inflation. Still the US Treasuries are the “safest” of the world debt issues. Appreciate your thoughts on this one.

  300. mylifemytrade

    @MyLife is Lame

    You made my day. Haven’t had a hearty laugh since morning. Truly – good stuff. I wish you would put this time and creativity in something more constructive.

    @ everybody else

    I am doing fine. Hope you all are too (I am sure you all are) with all the PMs putting in new life time highs…

  301. auger

    Hi Gary, I didn’t realize you’ve opened your premium archives, to non-subscribers. Thanks, I appreciate it and I’ll be taking a look.

  302. gratitudo

    Gary,

    Are you suggesting that you will increase your leverage after the dead cat bounce of 75.63? In my case, I am 80% invested – I am almost ready for the C-Wave. I want to deploy the remaining 20% at the right time. I don’t have margin on my acct. – thus, no additional leverage can be applied. The question is when? Now? Or, after the dollar breaks through 75.63? It sounds like others are in my same shoes. Question: when should we deploy our remaining capital?

  303. Gary

    Randy,
    Bonds aren’t my area of expertise. I think they have entered a long term secular bear market but that’s about all I care to know about bonds.

    Grat,
    I will post to the website when or if I decide to add.

  306. Brian

    Jay, I pulled a little out of MDW and SWC. Dumped AZC altogether. Did real well with AZC, but it is a copper play like NAK and the copper chart seems to be saying good bye. The 3 silvers you mentioned, I am going to continue to hold. Intend to do the same as you. Move it to AGQ on a corrective move.

  308. basil

    Gary,

    tell me otherwise, but I don’t think PM stocks stand a chance to go up in the face of a weakening stock market; that is even despite rising silver and gold prices. I think being in PM stocks is the wrong move. Period.

Comments are closed.