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Monthly Archives: December 2016
TOO MANY BULLS
The dumb money confidence level has now reached a rare level of euphoria. Retail traders are at 80% bulls. Retail traders are always on the wrong side of the market at turning points.
This kind of complacency almost never ends well when the profit taking event begins.
Gold on the other hand is seeing more bearishness now than at last years bottom, yet gold and miners are still holding well above those lows.
The contrarian trade is getting better and better. Keep in mind I would never short stocks, but no way I want to chase with retail traders at 80% bulls.
Gold on the other hand is building the fuel for a very powerful second leg up once the yearly cycle low is complete. Virtually no one believes in the bull anymore. Remember the time to buy is when no one wants it, and the time to sell is when everyone has to have it.
Watch the volume on the triple leveraged funds next week. We will probably get a stop run just like last year and that should allow big money to accumulate their final positions before the cycle bottoms and we turn back up. A couple of huge volume days on NUGT and JNUG should signal the bottom.
Heck if you can’t be a contrarian now, then you’re never going to be one. 🙂
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CHART OF THE DAY – Gold & Miners
Gold & Miners
A couple of months from now are traders going to look back and wonder how they could have ignored the bottoming signs?
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CHART OF THE DAY
CHART OF THE DAY
CHART OF THE DAY – $XAU
$XAU – Gold & Silver Index
Once the intermediate trend line is broken we will have the last confirmation the yearly cycle has bottomed.
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CHARTS OF THE DAY – Gold & Silver Index
Gold & Silver Index
The metals are deep into the cyclical timing band for the bottom and sentiment is extremely bearish.
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CHART OF THE DAY – ANOTHER FAILED BREAKOUT
Another Failed Breakout
Now the dollar is in the same camp as the Nasdaq, having generated a potential failed breakout.
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CHART OF THE DAY – BOND BUBBLE
Bond Bubble
Is the bubble in the bond market about to burst? Even a move back to the 38% retracement level over the next several weeks would cause chaos in the global financial markets.
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