Mining Stocks Bull Market
A longer term view of the 20 month moving average on mining stocks suggests that a new bull market is well underway. This moving average has not only been recently retested but is rising as in previous bull markets. The negative sentiment extreme reached several weeks ago is providing the fuel for this first leg higher.
Gold – 38% Fib Reached
Gold has tagged the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the previous intermediate cycle. This is the most likely spot for gold to drop into a half cycle low if it’s going to produce one. Dips are buying opportunities in the advancing phase of an intermediate cycle.
The Dollar is Headed Down
Everybody is going to be caught on the wrong side of this market ad sentiment is excessively bullish. The dollar is going to be due for a 3 year cycle low sometime in 2017.
Bonds have stalled and may be ready to roll over, yet gold just keeps grinding higher.
S&P 500 YCL
The timing band for the next yearly cycle low in the S&P 500 is sometime between mid February and late March.
Miners – The Initial Thrust is Probably Over
Now that the intermediate advance is in the second phase the best strategy is to just hang on for the ride. Don’t worry about the daily wiggles. You will never be able to time them perfectly anyway. All you will do is miss chunks of the rally. Just accept that the trend is up, but slower than the initial thrust. But it’s still up and should be for another 2-4 months.